The Flawed Contenders Of The Big Ten
Two freshman bigs, Diamond Stone (L) and Caleb Swanigan, have changed the B1G outlook.
For a day, at least, Purdue is the center of the college basketball world's attention after the Boilermakers added the commitment of five-star big man Caleb Swanigan, Indiana's Mr. Basketball and one-time Michigan State commit. Swanigan will team with AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas to form what will certainly be the conference's largest and most talented group of bigs.
In a Big Ten conference with one clear but unproven frontrunner in Maryland, followed by a pack of contenders with glaring questions of some sort, Purdue is now very much in that group of flawed teams hoping to make a title run. Even Maryland, the prohibitive favorite after landing five-star center Diamond Stone, has issues they'll need to address if they want to live up to the hype. Here's a quick look at next season's contenders, the strengths that could power them to a conference crown, and the weaknesses that may do them in.
MARYLAND
This team, on paper, has just about everything. The Terps can put four solid outside shooters around Stone, whose offensive skills are very advanced for a freshman. Melo Trimble was one of the best freshmen in the country last year, his efficiency should improve, and his remarkable knack for drawing fouls makes it difficult to keep him from consistently producing. Power forward transfer Robert Carter is a double-double threat. Maryland was a good squad last year and they should only be better this year.
So what's the problem? For one, Maryland might not have been quite as good as their record suggested last season. They pulled out so many tight games that they finished second nationally in KenPom's "luck" metric. The Terp offense ranked only tenth in the Big Ten in efficiency.
The offense will improve, to the point that it should offset regression in the luck department, but it's certainly worth wondering if a team that's proven so little will really end up in the national title discussion.
MICHIGAN STATE
Denzel Valentine flourished last season, and while the surprising Final Four squad loses Travis Trice and Branden Dawson, the rest of the supporting cast returns. Transfer wing Eron Harris should pick up much of the scoring slack left by Trice, while top-30 recruit Deyonta Davis helps make up for the loss of Dawson. Tom Izzo is still here, and that should be enough to consider MSU a contender.
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| Indiana could have a tough time defending the rim in 2015-16. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog] |
But can the offense thrive with Tum Tum Nairn running the show full-time? Nairn's jumper is so wonky—25/75 on twos, 3/10 on threes—that opponents can sag off him without fear, and he didn't make up for it by being an elite passer; his turnover rate outstripped his assist rate last season. With Trice gone and no point guard incoming, Nairn is the guy at point guard, and State's success will depend on his ability to become some sort of threat on offense, especially since his height hinders him defensively.
INDIANA
The backcourt trio of Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., and Robert Johnson is up there with any in the country, especially when it comes to raining in triples. Troy Williams is an explosive finisher on the wing. The starting five shouldn't have any trouble putting points on the board.
But, um, where'd everybody else go? Tom Crean is aware that five players are on the court at once, and at least one of those players is usually rather enormous, right? 6'10" forward Thomas Bryant enters with five-star credentials, but the depth up front is still a major concern, along with the usual concerns about whether this is the year Crean's unstable program finally collapses.
MICHIGAN
So many skilled wings!
So few proven bigs.
WISCONSIN
One should never count out a Bo Ryan squad, even in what should be a rebuilding year. Nigel Hayes is a legitimate NBA prospect whose game continues to evolve, and Bronson Koenig usurped Traevon Jackson as the team's best option at point guard even before Jackson went down to injury. Role players Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown will be juniors this season, and with Ryan's record of slow-build, big-payoff player development, it wouldn't surprise at all to see one or both experience breakout seasons.
On the other hand, I needed to bring up Showalter and Brown when discussing key returners, because the Badgers lost three starters, Jackson, and top backup Duje Dukan. That's a hell of a lot to lose for any team, and Wisconsin is only bringing in one top-100 recruit (SG Devin Pritzl) among their reinforcements.
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will need a heck of a youth movement to contend for the title, but they've got the talent to do so: five consensus four-stars, including three top-50 prospects, will join junior Marc Loving and sophomores Jae'Sean Tate, Keita Bates-Diop, and Kam Williams to form the core of this squad. Big man Trevor Thompson is eligible after transferring from Virginia Tech last year, giving the team a much-needed frontcourt presence.
The positive is also the negative here. Can such a young team find the right combination of players to make a run? This team lacks a proven point guard, doesn't have much big man depth, and will have to find a number one option with the departure of D'Angelo Russell.
PURDUE
They're going to be a load to handle inside, with two skilled seven-footers in Hammons and Haas alongside the 6'8", 265-pound Swanigan at power forward. With last year's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Raphael Davis, on the wing, it's going to be very difficult to score on the Boilermakers.
The team's roster construction could hold back Purdue's scoring, however. Spacing is going to be an issue for a team with only one above-average shooter, SG Kendall Stephens, projected to start. An offense can only be so efficient these days without boasting at least a decent outside shooting threat, but Purdue doesn't project to add much shooting after finishing last in the Big Ten from beyond the arc last season. Unless a returning wing—like sophomore Vince Edwards—really improves from the outside, the Boilermakers may run into trouble trying to bull through every team in their path.
ILLINOIS
I think I'm stretching the definition of "contender," but the Big Ten's middle is so murky it's tough to tell. The Illini have a couple very promising players, especially Malcolm Hill, and John Groce is bringing in a strong recruiting class featuring three four-star prospects. They also get PG Tracy Abrams back from a torn ACL, though how much that's worth is quite debatable.
Illinois loses Rayvonte Rice, who really came into his own last year, as well as Nnanna Egwu. Rice was the team's best bet to get to the basket the last couple years—and developed a lethal outside shot as a senior—while Egwu leaves a hole at center that'll be filled by either Maverick Morgan, who hasn't impressed thus far in his career, or an undersized, totally unproven option.
I suspect that if Nairn doesn't take a big step forward, MSU's lineups by season's end will actually feature Valentine as a Pippen-style point forward and just play two shooters in the backcourt rather than have a true point guard. Valentine was already 2nd on the team in assists last year (not far behind Trice) and did play that point-forward role at times.
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Harris played virtually no point at WVU, but was working hard at it this past year. I suspect he will be good enough at point to handle all of the non-Nairn minutes. Plus Valentine often plays point on offense. Point won't be a problem for MSU.
Without a threat of hitting a jumper, teams will do to MSU what NBA teams do to Rondo. Playing 4 against 5 defenders isn't usually a great strategy.
Dallas made the playoffs with Rondo and Boston won a title with him.
Michigan won over 20 games on year with Darius Morris shooting under 25% from 3.
MSU did pretty well with Cleeves despite his shooting 31% from 3 in his career.
The 76ers made the NBA finals with Eric Snow shooting 20% from 3.
The Thunder made the finals despite Russell Westbrook's awful outside shooting.
Not having a jump shot is a major deficiency -- but it's one you can make up for with good shooting teammates as long as you bring enough to other areas of the game (passing, defense, driving to the rim, etc.)
Rondo started on an NBA champion and was one of its best players. Nairn is a 10 mpg backup in college.
Regardless, the point is you don't have to be a good shooter to be successful, though it obviously helps. FWIW Rondo is 6'1.
There's many reasons Nairn got offers from MSU, Indiana, and Kansas. Shooting isn't one, so you can deduce that he can do some other things very well.
Guys usually make jumps between their Fr and So years. I am sure Nairn will too. He doesnt need to be a volume shooter - Harris will be and so will Valentine. Costello will get a good # of shots and Marvin Clark/Deyonta Davis will be option #4. There is no reason your PG cant be option 5 to shoot and you cannot thrive if he is a great distributor. Their big winning streak began when they moved Trice away from 1 to 2 and Nairn became a full time starter. I doubt it is coincidence. He is a poor man's Winston IMO - an old school PG.
But also consider that they will have a bunch of shooters in addition to Forbes and Harris. No one seems to be talking about McQuaid - a 6'5 shooter Beilein wanted and top 100 recruit. Beilein was also sniffing around Bess and Aherns. Without Dawson around, Nairn will have a lot more space to work. MSU is going to be experienced, talented, and deep.
As good as Maryland will be, I'd have to call MSU co-favorites. Michigan will be right there with them if things go right (Big 3 play up to potential and Doyle develops).
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Can you imagine what other fanbases think of Spike? I am just glad Josh Gasser finally has left Wisconsin
Every team seems to have that guy or more who has been there ten years. Wisconsin more than other's to me.
His name is Brevin Pritzl, although I can understand the error since that is a name that I didn't know was a name, too.
Maybe his parents were huge fans of Brevin Knight.
Maryland loses more minutes than MSU from last year's squad (75 mpg between Wells, Pack, and Smotrycz). Maryland's new guys will be good, but new. They'll bring different elements than what Maryland had last year, which is good in a way but also makes it more likely that it may take a few months for them to iron out the right roles and responsibilites. They'll miss Wells in a way that MSU won't miss Dawson or Trice. Look for them to disappoint relative to the sky-high expectations in the early season.
Everyone mentions losing Trice and Dawson because they got a ton of attention -- but they combined for about 63 mpg. Harris and Davis are similar players (or at least project to have similar roles), making the transition relatively seemless. Harris isn't going to average 5 apg like Trice did, but he can bump up to 3 or 4 a game if need be.
I really don't see the Tum Tum concerns/critiques as a major issue for MSU. A) He was a freshman PG - he'll get a lot better. B) Height barely matters for a PG. (it's not why Spike struggles on D) and, most importantly, C) MSU doesn't have to play him much. MSU can roll with Valentine/Harris as the lead ball handlers (as they did with Valentine/Trice) and can play shooters (Forbes, Ahern, McQuaid, Bess?) instead of Tum Tum. He can just reprise his role from last year - backup guard. If you're holding out hope that MSU won't be good because of Tum Tum, you're going to be disappointed...
I don't think Tum Tum will be relgated to the bench though. Nairns flashed a ton of promise and looks very reminiscent of Mateen Cleeves. He's a player I'd love to have on the Michigan team even though he doesn't fit the traditional Beilein profile. It's not often that I'm jealous of MSU's players, but Green, Gary Harris, and Tum Tum are a few that I would have loved to land. Nairns has the shooters around him to mitigate his deficiency there (just as Mateen and Darius Morris did.)
Michigan absolutely can win this conference and MSU-UM games are going to be must-watch TV because both MSU and UM are going to have some of the best teams they've had in years next season. I can't wait.
Generally agree with your theme here - but I expect Nairn to play 30 min a nite at the 1 and do fine. He has a very good handler and for his size he is a good defender - did a real good job on OSU's star last year when head to head. You can sacrifice offense at the 1 with so many other guys who want touches on that team especially Harris and Valentine. I actually think this MSU team will have more talent then last year's but Trice went into another zone in the NCAAs so that type of performance is not something you can count on. I do think Harris is a huge help for them or else the Nairn issue would be something more serious since they need scoring out of the 2.
As for Maryland I dont see Smot or Pack as big losses and Sulaimon is a good addition in basketball terms (although apparently not a very good human being). He is a lot better player than Pack. Smot didnt hit double digits once in conf play and yes he took up 15-20 min a nite but there are a lot of guys who can do that. I think they get a transfer in from GA Tech too?
I think how ready Stone is will go a long way to determine if they are just going to be very good or elite. They rebounded poorly for a "good team" last year and if Stone can help there it will make a difference. Either way they should be a co-Big 10 favorite ...not sure if top 5 but top 10ish.
For UM its all going to be about if Doyle can give you 8 pts and 6 rbs a nite and soak up 25 min and provide real interior D, and then our backup 5 is not a big drop off....and someone emerging at 4 (Dawkins). Dawkins is a very good shooter but doesnt do much else - he needs to rebound and play defense much better. Chatman is a good rebounder but not much else. I would put up our 1 thru 3 up with anyone in the conf...questions are 4 and 5.
I have little doubt Nairn will be a very good PG. My point was just to say that IF he struggles hypothetically, MSU will still be really good with all the other options at their disposal. If he hits 20% from 3 or is otherwise limited to 10 minutes per game, they can still succeed.
Absolutely agree that MSU will have more talent than last year. I'm not even sure that's a real debate. Whatever limitations Nairn will have - Dawson had his share too. Trice did play well late, but Harris seems like a better overall player. McQuaid could be a huge addition too. Davis wasn't rated far below Stone, etc.
Maryland - Carter, the transfer from GA Tech is legit - a force on the boards and a good complement to a young star center. My point there is just that it will take Maryland some time because that's a lot of turnover for a roster. New starting PG, PF, and C. Chemistry may be bumpy early with only one ball.
As for MIchigan - I agree Doyle is the key -- but I think that's on the low end for expectations - they may need closer to 30 mpg from him unless Wilson/Donnal make a leap. It's going to be pretty frustrating if Beilfeldt is raining 3s for Indiana against those guys...
Dawkins is getting a little overrated at the moment by our fanbase, but he was a freshman and you'd expect him to round out his game (more rebounding, better D, more flashes to the rim) as a sophomore, as others have done. He won't quite be GR3 with a better jump shot, but he might approach it.He should also benefit a good deal from Levert/Walton/Irvin getting all the attention.
In other words, I'm not real worried about the 4 guy given the versatility of our Big 3 and the wealth of options behind them (Dawkins, Spike, Robinson, Chatman, MAAR). The Center spot is going to be better than last year, but still a weakness. The top 3 should be, as you said, as good as anyone, but the back end of the rotation should be better than it's ever been under Beilein. We'll see how much that matters but I'm very excited about the potential of a swiss-army knife bench (offense from Spike, defense from MAAR, size/rebounding from Chatman, shooting from Robinson, etc.). That doesn't work with every coach, but Beilein has a Rick Carslile like ability to get people to play to their strengths.
The Michigan review is one line from a decent haiku.
Sure, they'll be a pest and doubtlessly make the tournament, but there is zero chance that they're returning talent is enough to win a loaded Big Ten.
Probably the biggest issue for Indiana is that Crean is not only a shitty human/mentor, he's also a shitty basketball coach.
comes from my old HS and they did win school's first ever State title in BB. Yikes - I was in the 2nd graduating class. He's got a long way to go to be a star in college, but Purdue is starting to build quite a presence at the center position. However - not quite sold on the supporting cast ... to be a championship contender in the B1G.
Go Blue!
He's a guy I still have high expectations for because Beilein prioritized him very early in the recruiting cycle. Is there a better endorsement than that?
Things fell apart - I don't know if it was on Edwards' end, Michigan's, if there was some funny business going on, if he failed to develop further or what - but regardless that was a player whose ability Beilein was VERY interested in.
Maybe I'm overestimating the impact that Sulaimon will have on the Terps but his addition would seem to take them from potentially very good to potentially great (in the Natl Championship conversation).
Michigan might have the most NBA talent on it's squad right now in LeVert, Irvin, and Dawkins. Irvin and Dawkins played like NBA quality players later in the year, and I expect them both to improve this year. NBA level talent is usually a strong predictor of results
Michigan- LeVert, Irvin, and Dawkins
Maryland-Trimble and Stone, and maybe Sulaimon.
Purdue-Swanigan and Hammons.
MSU-Valentine and maybe Harris.
Wisconsin-Hayes.
Indiana-Blackmon and Johnson.
OSU- 2 wild cards.
you need to be including a lot more people on other teams. I think you can make the case for Dawkins (size, 3s, athleticism) but it's pretty speculative. Another fan base would call it biased to include him and not, for example, guys on Maryland (Layman, Carter), Indiana (Williams, Ferrell), and MSU (Davis). FWIW - I'd also argue that Valentine won't get past a summer league tryout, though he should make for a very good professional abroad with his versatility.
But if you just look at the guys that Beilein has been putting into the league, he fits the bill perfectly. No other coach in the Big Ten has that kind of ability to develop talent. He is as athletic as Robinson, and has a shot as good as Stauskas. Dawkins shot 48% in Big Ten games this year. Beilein has put players with less raw talent into the league, such as Hardaway and Stauskas. If Dawkins plays like he did in the last 7 or 8 games this year, he could easily gone by the end of the season.
Valentine is not and will never be a NBA player.
Its funny that Beilein wanted him and settled for Stauskas.
Harris is the replacement at 2 - he is a guy Beilein wanted and a guy who averaged like 17 ppg or something for West Va. He is actually probably a better player than Trice although not the way Trice played in the NCAAs - but in the regular season yes. At worst its a wash.
Dawson is difficult to replace because he does Dennis Rodman things that dont show up on a scoreboard. (whenever his head was in the game at least). But Marvin Clark seems to be a better shooting, less physical version of Dawson and then they have a McDonald's All American freshman in Davis coming in to be a platoon to replace Dawson. I would not expect much drop off there although it will be more finesse out of their 4 then with Dawson.
Costello came on late in the year and will be a SR center - a luxury. They will have a good starting 5 and a pretty good team thru #8 in the rotation. Forbes is a good backup 2 to spell Harris 10 minutes a nite. Their top freshman last year and the guy they thought would be a starter (Bess) was injured most of the year so it will be another guy we dont know much about who should be a key player for them. It should be a top 15 team and depending on the upside on Davis (who seems raw offensively but a presence in rebounding and shot blocking) by Jan/Feb will probably determine their eventual upside.
MSU is replacing them. They'll get a proven player and 2 blue chip recruits, plus almost everyone else back from their rotation. As seniors those guys were pretty good, but they were also the guys who were getting causually dismissed by Brain and others a year ago. They had their limitations and the NBA isn't real interested in them. Good veteran college players, but replaceable pieces nonetheless.
Not to mention Trice played way over his head last year. Really hard to see someone topping that considering the replacement is a guy who left West Virginia and his team got better without him. Plus Beilein canceled his visit his he wanted to bring his friends on his visit to party.
Can't overreact to a comically easy bracket. If they were placed in Arizona's region as they should have been, no one is even talking about them.
Unless comically easy means something different than it normally does, i'd say beating Oklahoma, Virginia and Louisville are the crazed ramblings of a biased fan. Those teams were all well respected, dominant in conference and had legit final 4 aspirations. Why "should" we be in a different bracket? Based on what? If anything, we were underseeded and had a more difficult path than we should have. Yes, i am green. I also love those on here that say that this is some sort of revenge season for UM. Why? Cause they were terrible last year? Ok. Not sure what type of revenge that could lead to...Oh yeah, and Arizona lost anyway, so why would that have made a difference.
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Revenge factor will be big for Michigan this year. Guys were developed and succeeded. Add back in the closers in Levert and Walton, all those late game losses are wins.
A lot of cute little celebrations were happening when teams won those close games. I hope they enjoyed those.... Karma is a bitch.
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