Five Shotgun Blasts And Counting Comment Count

Brian

1/20/2014 – Michigan 54, Rutgers 50 – 12-7, 5-2 Big Ten

-13c27eb697d73a78[1]

BENCH MOB NO MORE [Bryan Fuller]

At one point last night Michigan's lineup consisted of two walkons, two freshmen who had been snatched off the who-dat heap right before the late signing period, and redshirt freshman Mark Donnal. At another point it was Walton, three freshmen, and 6'7" center Max Bielfeldt. To paraphrase the increasingly rat-faced gentleman to the west, Michigan was playing a lot of weird guys. This is how weird: they yoinked a redshirt off a walk-on. It's not going to plan, you guys.

And they won! They won because Rutgers is a basketball team in the same way North Korea is a tourist destination, but Sean Lonergan played 13 more minutes than Caris LeVert did. Michigan is a basketball team in the same way London after the black plague was a city. I'll take it.

In fact Michigan is a zombie in the same way a zombie is a zombie: lurching forward despite taking a staggering amount of damage. They've got their grobbly little teeth into five Big Ten teams already largely because Beilein has deep experience taking the undersized and faintly ridiculous farther than seems possible. I bet a small part of him thinks it's kind of fun he's throwing out a zillion different zones and deploying a rotation that occasionally grabs chemistry students out of Orgo lab. A part much smaller than the eyerolling demon that controls most of his precincts, but an extant one nonetheless.

It is this tiny part of our rage-filled selves we should seek to cultivate.

-----------------------------

Against teams that don't yield 25 uncontested threes against a team that barely hints at activity in the paint, the projection is rougher. Michigan's projected to win four of their remaining 11 games on Kenpom and it's hard to dispute that as pessimistic, what with Kenpom unaware that Caris has gone away.

It's going to be ugly. And… I guess, fine, let's just get to it and move on. Michigan saw Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Nik Stauskas depart for the NBA. Jon Horford followed his family's insane NBA dream to 18 minutes a game on a 10-8 SEC Team. (Note to Michigan basketball: if Tito Horford shows up with a babe in swaddling clothes, put it in the river and run.) Caris is kaput and there's obviously something bothering Walton when he's not rebounding his ass off. Irvin is not quite in a Hardaway-esque sophomore funk (still 35% from three) but he's rarely able to generate anything that isn't provided.

You can rip that pile of talent away from a Duke or a Kentucky and they will plug it back in because the next wave of seven-footers from the Nike tanks is just around the corner. Michigan, not so much.

It's a minor miracle that they've done what they have over the last few years without recruiting one-and-done types. Michigan effective experience over the last five years, out of about 350: 335, 207, 342, 330, 326. The only team in that bunch to not win an NCAA game was the 207 squad, which went out early against Ohio. They went to a national title game and nearly another final four in there. And the NBA swooped in on guys who nobody had heard of before they put on the block M.

At some point the wrong combination of guys was going to pop out and Michigan would be pretty bleah. That's this.

Thanks to the two horrendous nonconference losses Michigan would probably have to get to 11, maybe 12 conference wins to get a bid. I guess that's not impossible, but neither is it likely. Against the easiest part of their Big Ten schedule Michigan has five wins that were one-basket games sometime in the last five minutes and two decisive losses.

The only reason anyone is holding out a faint modicum of hope is that 1-6 team that wandered into Breslin and sprayed blood all over the place. If that happens, great. I'm resigned to the NIT and looking for blips of improvement whenever Dawkins skies over everyone or Doyle, like, plays. I was throwing things earlier this year when this improbable scaffold collapsed on itself; now I'm trying to have fun watching it go back up.

BULLETS

Oy. I guess it evened out a little by the end but man, the three point shooting was something else. Rutgers somehow conspired to give Michigan open look after open look and Michigan could not convert. Walton hit a couple key late ones to get Michigan to 8 of 26, 31%.

That's much less of a problem than going 39% from within the arc, but if that happens against non-Rutgers teams it's curtains. Most of them aren't going to give up anywhere near as many open looks, though.

Rutgers. Just fire Eddie Jordan now. To be that disorganized with two seniors and two juniors in your starting lineup is a spectacular condemnation of coaching ability even in year two.

Two pointers. There aren't any. Doyle is getting an acceptable number up at a good rate (66%), and that is it. Irvin is at 42%, Chatman a stunning 34%, Walton even worse at 33%… it's night and day from last year when Michigan got a ton of good looks and converted them.

Why that might be. Walton's inability to step forward and become a high-usage, high-efficiency guy is killing the offense. I don't think anyone really expected Irvin to drive a lot of shot-generating, so the burden from the departed Stauskas was bound to fall on LeVert and Walton. LeVert stepped up insofar as he could—big usage, big assist rate, poor efficiency inside the arc. Walton's TO rate is almost as high as his assist rate and he's not effective as a shooter.

I believe that turf toe is a major problem, but we'd better hope so because any renaissance starts with Walton being an all-conference level player.

Chatman versus Dawkins. If you had no idea who was the touted recruit you would pick Dawkins 100 times out of 100. He can leap out of the building, he's decently efficient shooting, and he does not do the very strange things Chatman does multiple times per game. And yet Dawkins was picking between Michigan and Dayton while Chatman was a top 50 recruit everywhere. Very strange.

We're going to explore the boundaries of what Dawkins can do now over the rest of th season, as he's showing some promise. He even had a take to the basket last game out.

This is how you know it's not your year. Spike's TO rate is over 20, and the second highest on the team. Last year he went through a big chunk of the Big Ten season with an infinite A:TO ratio.

Comments

AC1997

January 21st, 2015 at 6:36 PM ^

You are correct, his supporting cast is far inferior to last year. Not having the reliable post players to pass to, a killer outside shooter to stretch the D, or another alpha male offensive player makes it impossible to judge.

I will also clarify that I didn't mean Caris wasn't a great player and more valuable than Manny or THJ for his diversity.

However, even his stats from last year suggest that he is a unique player compared to what Beilein has had in recent seasons and it is possible that there have been growing pains associated with how to build an offense around him (magnified by the lack of performers around him). We used to complain about the Burke hero ball at the end of games and he was Trey Friggin' Burke. When a lot of your offense is Caris hero ball I think it warrants further discussion to understand why.

I really hope he comes back and gets to play with a better cast next year.

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 8:04 PM ^

I just don't have a problem with hero ball when your alternative is...not much better.

Everybody is dissapointed but I don't think that has to translate to criticisms of our best guy.

I don't think it's Caris not making guys better or passing well that was the problem, it was just those guys not being that good.  For example, Spike.  AWESOME role player, great guy, etc.  But you can't have somebody like him playing 35 minutes a night and expect to contend at this level unless everyone else around him is an NBA player.

Caris got better. Derrick's been hurt. Irvin got better (but is still far below our hopes and expectations), Bielfeldt got better, Spike has shouldered bigger duties capably.  Literally everyone who came back is better than they were last year.  So what's the problem -- it's the new guys.  Too many of them, not enough of them are good.

The only guy who I feel like it's appropriate to really criticize is Donnal.  Well regarded recruit, red-shirted, still getting outplayed by a true freshman and a 2-star undersized senior.

Irvin comes right after him because there are times when it doesn't look like he is giving full effort, but I still love his potential.

AC1997

January 21st, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^

I am equally perplexed by how Chatman was so highly rated.  He seems to possess very little athletic ability, which limits him as both a rebounder and finisher.  He also doesn't seem like his range quite extends to the three-point line.  And he's clearly not a great ball handler.  So what is he?  What did people see with a below-the-rim mid-range jump shooter that got him his rankings?  

I'm not ready to give up on him yet, but his fit in the offense and defense seems so limited right now.  He's not big or athletic enough to truly play PF and he's not a good enough ball-handler or creator to play SF.  He seems like a role player off the bench who you pair with complimentary players at C/SF to mask his weaknesses.  It is easier to project long-term roles for Rahk and Dawkins than Chatman.....which is concerning since he's the only highly rated recruit out of the six freshmen and there is no hope on the horizon for impact recruits.  

Next year I think Robinson immediately jumps him in the rotation if he can shoot as is rumored.  Then there's the question of where you play Wilson.  I remain of the opinion that's he's a center, not a stretch PF.  I think that fits his skills, I think it fits within the offense, I think they need more depth at C, and I think he would be awesome in these zone defenses.  

umumum

January 21st, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

I will only address one of your assessments.  I assure you that Chatman is a vastly superior ball-handler than Dawkins (who is entirely catch-and-shoot right now) and even GRIII.  Ball-handling and vision at 6'8" were what got Chatman a top 25 ranking.  I concede that thusfar his mistakes are glaring, but  I am cautiosly optimistic that those skills will manifest themselves next year.

I also appreciate the more nuanced assessment of our players on this thread than has often been seen lately.  These are 18-19 year olds--players John Beilein has thought worthy of scholarships.  A little patience.

AC1997

January 21st, 2015 at 6:44 PM ^

I think Draymond Green is a stretch, but it is an interesting comparison. Perhaps the biggest issue was just expecting him to be ready at this point. His skills are more nuanced and take time to develop, perhaps like Green or Novak. He was hopefully going to be backing up GR3 or Donnal this season and not playing 30 minutes at PF. It is tough, however to see so many of his lesser rated predecessors have at least some success right away or at least see their future more clearly. (He also suffers from the overall struggles of the other players.)

The reason I project Robinson to challenge his rotation spot is that I expect Robinson has one specific skill that he can do well and earn minutes. It isn't clear yet what will earn Chatman his minutes. I think he needs to be more aggressive and stop thinking so much. Like Irvin and Spike there is probably some lost confidence.

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 5:24 PM ^

In an ideal world LeVert returns and Chatman/Robinson/Dawkins all fight for minutes at the 4, and Doyle/Donnal/Wilson are fight for minutes at the 5.

In the real world LeVert is probably gone and  you badly need some ball-handling to offset the limitations of Irvin, Robinson, Dawkins, Doyle, etc.  I don't know what you do other than play Chatman as a 4 that can exploit mismatches off the dribble.  I guess you can go 2-guard with Spike and Walton all game but that creates a whole other set of problems.

Everyone has very high expectations for Robinson right now, but his profile suggests that people are going to be disappointed.  I would guess he's going to be a spot-up shooter a la Stauskas in his freshman year.  Athleticism (i.e., defense) sounds like a significant issue for the team as a whole.

AC1997

January 21st, 2015 at 6:30 PM ^

This team has so little athleticism outside of Levert and flashes from Dawkins. When you watch them against teams like OSU it is appalling. You see so few dunks from this team and I have counted at least 8 missed layups by Irvin in the conference season.

The good news is that Beilein has made a career out of unathletic guys and even very few of his stars qualify as above average athletically these past few years.

What is killing this team as much as their inability to get some easy 2s is the fact they have universally regressed at shooting 3s.

Jonesy

January 22nd, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^

It's very low even with him, we looked like a high school team against OSU.  I feel like our basketball team is MSU's football team.  Consistently good lately, can't get the recruits, why dont people want to play for the great developer that is Beilein/Dantonio?!?

champswest

January 21st, 2015 at 9:29 PM ^

to see playing time at the 3 than he is at the 4.  He could be that off the bench scoring threat that we need.  

Also, I would favor playing Wilson behind Doyle at the 5 and let Donnal back up Chatman at the 4.  Dawkins could play either the 3 or 4.

CR

January 22nd, 2015 at 1:26 AM ^

DR is working on his ball handling and passing and would like to be able to play the 2/3. He sees his future there---as a 2 or wing---though UM doesn't really use a "4." As a wing he would play on he left side of the court.

No player I know of has ever made the jump from D-3 to D-1. But I think he has a really good shot af doing so.

UMaD

January 22nd, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^

How often do you ball-handling dramatically improve? 

Beilein is constantly playing guys down a spot (3s at 4, 4s at 5).

In other words, I'll believe a 6'8 guy with limited athleticism and handle playing the 3 for Beilein when I see it.  Not saying it can't happen, just that I'd be rather surprised.  When JB had Horford, McGary, and Morgan he STILL didn't play GR3 at the 3 and instead went with Vogrich or Albrecht or burning Caris' red-shirt rather than going big.

I don't think Donnal has the athleticism to play the 4 for Michigan.  I don't think Robinson has the athleticism to play the 3 for Michigan.  Not that there is an enormous difference between the two on offense, but defensively you run into problems.. But we'll see...

 

CR

January 22nd, 2015 at 5:37 PM ^

...but I am not sure Robinson is that limited athletically. I concede it is difficult to tell against D-3 guys, but he could pass it, handle it and (of course) shoot it at that level. To me, he looked like a very rich man's John Shurna (with better mechanics) and Shurna was hard as hell to handle. But, yeah, speed of the game.

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 7:41 PM ^

Everytime things go badly with the basketball team there seems to be a leap to blame the best players. The current best player is Derrick Walton, so I guess it's his turn:

"Walton's inability to step forward and become a high-usage, high-efficiency guy is killing the offense."

Why not Spike's inability? Or Aubrey Dawkins?  Or Kam Chatman's?  Or Donnals or Doyle's?

It was the same story when defense was the issue.  Brian kills Caris for not being a lock-down defender, nevermind that he's still far better than Spike, Zak, Nik, etc. 

Same story for rebounding when that stunk.  Brian killed GR3 for not being a better rebounder (and shooter), yet he was playing off his natural position working hard every game against bigger guys.  Nevermind that EVERY Beilein 4 has not rebounded. Nevermind that a far inferior player (Zak Novak) was lauded at every opportunity and never criticized for his limitations.

Before that it was grumbling about THJ for shot selection or whatever.

The burden falls on THE TEAM.  Not the just the guy who gets selected as the recipient of EXPECTATIONS due to...whatever.

When you see the targets of criticism playing in the NBA (and having success) while the guys getting praise heaped on them are currently analyzing spreadsheets and trying to make their sales quota...it means you've reach a point at which the validity of the criticism-inducing expectations needs to be reevlauated.

In other words - yeah, it'd be nice if Derrick Walton was Kyrie Irving but that's not the biggest problem with Michigan basketball right now.  Griping about it seems misguided, especially when the guy is injured.

 

Low Key Recidivist

January 21st, 2015 at 9:52 PM ^

He inherited the smokiest of the dumpster fires and has made the best of it.  His team has zero depth and thus no options if his starters get off kilter. Even so, they played Maryland to the wire the other night on the road and were in the game against Minnie until the last 2 minutes.  Jordan has kept that team competitive in spite on no depth beyond the starters.

Any way you slice it, it was a good win for UM; JB played it perfectly knowing Rutgers couldn't substitute even at the paltry levels UM did.  

I believe Brian has it right.  Barring a Bielein miracle, this team will be fortunate to finish 9-9 in the B1G.  Given the way the season has broken out, that's one hell of a coaching job.