Five Shotgun Blasts And Counting Comment Count

Brian

1/20/2014 – Michigan 54, Rutgers 50 – 12-7, 5-2 Big Ten

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BENCH MOB NO MORE [Bryan Fuller]

At one point last night Michigan's lineup consisted of two walkons, two freshmen who had been snatched off the who-dat heap right before the late signing period, and redshirt freshman Mark Donnal. At another point it was Walton, three freshmen, and 6'7" center Max Bielfeldt. To paraphrase the increasingly rat-faced gentleman to the west, Michigan was playing a lot of weird guys. This is how weird: they yoinked a redshirt off a walk-on. It's not going to plan, you guys.

And they won! They won because Rutgers is a basketball team in the same way North Korea is a tourist destination, but Sean Lonergan played 13 more minutes than Caris LeVert did. Michigan is a basketball team in the same way London after the black plague was a city. I'll take it.

In fact Michigan is a zombie in the same way a zombie is a zombie: lurching forward despite taking a staggering amount of damage. They've got their grobbly little teeth into five Big Ten teams already largely because Beilein has deep experience taking the undersized and faintly ridiculous farther than seems possible. I bet a small part of him thinks it's kind of fun he's throwing out a zillion different zones and deploying a rotation that occasionally grabs chemistry students out of Orgo lab. A part much smaller than the eyerolling demon that controls most of his precincts, but an extant one nonetheless.

It is this tiny part of our rage-filled selves we should seek to cultivate.

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Against teams that don't yield 25 uncontested threes against a team that barely hints at activity in the paint, the projection is rougher. Michigan's projected to win four of their remaining 11 games on Kenpom and it's hard to dispute that as pessimistic, what with Kenpom unaware that Caris has gone away.

It's going to be ugly. And… I guess, fine, let's just get to it and move on. Michigan saw Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Nik Stauskas depart for the NBA. Jon Horford followed his family's insane NBA dream to 18 minutes a game on a 10-8 SEC Team. (Note to Michigan basketball: if Tito Horford shows up with a babe in swaddling clothes, put it in the river and run.) Caris is kaput and there's obviously something bothering Walton when he's not rebounding his ass off. Irvin is not quite in a Hardaway-esque sophomore funk (still 35% from three) but he's rarely able to generate anything that isn't provided.

You can rip that pile of talent away from a Duke or a Kentucky and they will plug it back in because the next wave of seven-footers from the Nike tanks is just around the corner. Michigan, not so much.

It's a minor miracle that they've done what they have over the last few years without recruiting one-and-done types. Michigan effective experience over the last five years, out of about 350: 335, 207, 342, 330, 326. The only team in that bunch to not win an NCAA game was the 207 squad, which went out early against Ohio. They went to a national title game and nearly another final four in there. And the NBA swooped in on guys who nobody had heard of before they put on the block M.

At some point the wrong combination of guys was going to pop out and Michigan would be pretty bleah. That's this.

Thanks to the two horrendous nonconference losses Michigan would probably have to get to 11, maybe 12 conference wins to get a bid. I guess that's not impossible, but neither is it likely. Against the easiest part of their Big Ten schedule Michigan has five wins that were one-basket games sometime in the last five minutes and two decisive losses.

The only reason anyone is holding out a faint modicum of hope is that 1-6 team that wandered into Breslin and sprayed blood all over the place. If that happens, great. I'm resigned to the NIT and looking for blips of improvement whenever Dawkins skies over everyone or Doyle, like, plays. I was throwing things earlier this year when this improbable scaffold collapsed on itself; now I'm trying to have fun watching it go back up.

BULLETS

Oy. I guess it evened out a little by the end but man, the three point shooting was something else. Rutgers somehow conspired to give Michigan open look after open look and Michigan could not convert. Walton hit a couple key late ones to get Michigan to 8 of 26, 31%.

That's much less of a problem than going 39% from within the arc, but if that happens against non-Rutgers teams it's curtains. Most of them aren't going to give up anywhere near as many open looks, though.

Rutgers. Just fire Eddie Jordan now. To be that disorganized with two seniors and two juniors in your starting lineup is a spectacular condemnation of coaching ability even in year two.

Two pointers. There aren't any. Doyle is getting an acceptable number up at a good rate (66%), and that is it. Irvin is at 42%, Chatman a stunning 34%, Walton even worse at 33%… it's night and day from last year when Michigan got a ton of good looks and converted them.

Why that might be. Walton's inability to step forward and become a high-usage, high-efficiency guy is killing the offense. I don't think anyone really expected Irvin to drive a lot of shot-generating, so the burden from the departed Stauskas was bound to fall on LeVert and Walton. LeVert stepped up insofar as he could—big usage, big assist rate, poor efficiency inside the arc. Walton's TO rate is almost as high as his assist rate and he's not effective as a shooter.

I believe that turf toe is a major problem, but we'd better hope so because any renaissance starts with Walton being an all-conference level player.

Chatman versus Dawkins. If you had no idea who was the touted recruit you would pick Dawkins 100 times out of 100. He can leap out of the building, he's decently efficient shooting, and he does not do the very strange things Chatman does multiple times per game. And yet Dawkins was picking between Michigan and Dayton while Chatman was a top 50 recruit everywhere. Very strange.

We're going to explore the boundaries of what Dawkins can do now over the rest of th season, as he's showing some promise. He even had a take to the basket last game out.

This is how you know it's not your year. Spike's TO rate is over 20, and the second highest on the team. Last year he went through a big chunk of the Big Ten season with an infinite A:TO ratio.

Comments

Steve in PA

January 21st, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^

When I saw this team live a few weeks ago the thing that had me dumbfounded was that some of the players obviously didn't know the plays yet. Dawkins stood out the most for being out of position or confused about what to do. The coaches even told the veterans they had to help.

I didn't get to watch last night's game yet since I was at my son's game. But, this last weekend I saw visible improvement in both Dawkins and Rock. I don't know if JB has shrunk the playbook or it has just taken this long but something is happening with the young guys.

Looking back on previous seasons I think it happened right around now as well for the young guys. Caris wasn't an immediate player and had to burn his redshirt, for example. I think it's probably too late for the NCAA but the NIT is within reach. Unless we run into a situation like a few years ago except Turner* doesn't make the half court shot this time.

 

 

*Obviously it wouldn't be Turner since he's long gone.

Michigan4Life

January 21st, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^

has proven against top flight competition in high school so the talent is there. I mean, Arizona went after him HARD and Arizona have billion 5* recruits on their teams. Chatman is a different type of player in comparison to Dawkins. Chatman is more of a point forward who likes to facilitate plays for others while Dawkins is similar to GRIII. It's much easier to see athleticism than skills. However, there is a reason why Chatman is starting to begin the season. Chatman's problem lies with mental.

bronxblue

January 21st, 2015 at 2:26 PM ^

Yeah, I think people are giving up on the kid a bit too early.  He's a true freshman who is a bit of a finesse player in a system that puts lots of pressure on young guys to figure it out quickly.  Just because he's struggling now doesn't mean the lightbulb won't go on later and he'll be a very solid player.  It isn't uncommon for freshmen to struggle early on, and it sounds like he's been dealing with a knee injury for a bit, so that certainly doesn't help.

He might turn out to be a bust, but passing that sentence based on ~20 games is premature.

umchicago

January 21st, 2015 at 3:16 PM ^

but you don't give up on a freshman.  he has decent ball skills and passing skills for a guy his size.  he obviously needs a big dose of confidence; like going strong to the basket.  improving his outside shot would be huge too.

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 2:37 PM ^

Is a point I made repeatedly in the preseason -- Chatman played at an extremely low level of HS competition for a major recruit.  He was always going to be raw. I even said I expected Dawkins to start at the 4 and was surprised when it was Kam afterall.

The talent and skills and athleticism are all there.  He needs to get more comfortable and find how to apply his multi-dimensinal game.

Some people like Nik and Zak and Darius came in with a well-defined skill that let the rest of their game evolve later.  Kam is still figuring out what he can do well now and what he has to develop down the line, and how it all fits with the team's need. 

Furthermore, Kam is a guy who should benefit a bit over the next few weeks from Caris' injury because the ball will be more available to him and his skills off the ball are still unrefined.

He's going to be a good player down the line. Be patient.

Blue Noise

January 21st, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^

Very much agree here. And it's worth remembering that even with his advantageous point-guard height, Darius Morris was pretty bad as a freshman. He averaged 4.4 points and 2.6 assists in 24 mins/game and frankly I don't even remember him playing well enough to accumulate those stats (though part of the reason for that is I may have purposefully erased the 2009-10 season from my memory).

Morris as a frost vs. a sophomore was night and day, and it's not the first time a major freshman to sophomore leap was made. Until proven otherwise I'll expect Chatman to be much better next year.




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UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^

Not really fair to him to point to those numbers.  He was coming in as a complementary player to Sims and Harris.  He was OK in that role.  He wasn't his sophomore self, but he already had that package of skills and you could see the size and passing ability was there.  He did struggle a bit with fit, but that's normal freshman stuff for a PG on a team led by other vets.

But yeah, it is a good example of a young guy that didn't find comfort in his role until later on.  Happens all the time.

MH20

January 21st, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^

Darius actually was very pedestrian his freshman season.  He played a lot for a freshman (24 mpg) but was not a factor offensively (40/18/63, 4.4 ppg, 2.6 apg) despite amble court time.  Now, part of that is probably that Manny and Peedi dominated the ball so much, but still, I can't seem to recall a game where Darius did a whole lot.  However, we all saw how well he progressed in his second season.

So yeah, let's pump the brakes on the Chatman Is A Bust parade.

EDIT: Great minds, Blue Noise.  Great minds.

MH20

January 21st, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^

I, too, enjoy writing off 18-year olds for not immediately being impact players in a system known to have a decent learning curve.

Yes, Kameron has struggled this season and I'm sure he'd be the first to tell you as such, but writing his epitath after three months is silly.

Yinka Double Dare

January 21st, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^

One reason I think Walton's toe is obviously a significant part is that he (at least in a feelingsball way, because I don't have the data) seemed to finish much better last year at or near the rim. And we know he's at the very least not less-strong than last year after another year in the S&C program. So the explanation has to be the injury is killing his explosion both in driving and jumping?

ST3

January 21st, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^

He rebounds like the toe is fine. He outjumps most of the guys around him and goes and gets the ball. Inch for inch, he's our best rebounder by far, and may be our best rebounder period. He just has a nose for the ball.

When he's taking the ball to the rim, I've noticed a lot of times he dribbles right into trouble and ends up facing a 4 or 5 who has 10 inches on him. He's not going to be able to get that shot off good toe or bad. I think he needs to see the court better and think a couple moves ahead of where he's currently at.

StephenRKass

January 21st, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^

This whole year, with Stauskas, McGary, Robinson, Morgan, and Horford gone, and Caris out, we're playing with house money. They've already done more than I expected. Every win they get from this point forward is gravy! It is all good, and you can just shake your head and smile. House money indeed. Edit:  and should Walton's toe actually heal significantly, and Doyle continue to get better, I think we'll win a couple of games we're not expected to win.

umchicago

January 21st, 2015 at 3:22 PM ^

you expected them to lose to NJIT and EMU.  not me, even in the worst scenario.  in all seriousness, but for those two losses, this team would still have a shot at going .500 in the BIG and an NCAA bid.  it's still possable those losses could keep them sub .500 overall and out of the NIT.

StephenRKass

January 21st, 2015 at 3:37 PM ^

No, I didn't expect those two losses. I did think there would be some rough sledding, especially with the loss of the bigs. If McGary and Horton were here, the season would have been completely different. But there's no use in crying over spilled milk. All I would say is that I don't expect a lot from the team going forward, other than that they will win more games than anyone expects.

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^

Michigan has RECRUITED them, just not successfully.

[Other than McGary]

Also, they've had a bunch of two-and-outs so it's a little disingenuous to paint the program as David.  Eddie Jordan is jealous of our talent and depth...

This NBA and injury-ravaged TEAM is now pretty rag-tag but still has a few elite recruits in Walton, Irvin, and Chatman.  The PROGRAM however will continue to pursue NBA-caliber talent...at least if they want to get back to the heights that the talented '12 class helped them reach.

Yo_Blue

January 21st, 2015 at 2:40 PM ^

After wishing and praying that Irvin would start driving to the hole, I'm now cringing whenever he does.  I have never seen so many missed layups from a player.  He is getting great looks.  Maybe he should come off the bench - he sure seemed more comfortable in that role last year and has not taken to the starting position like everyone had hoped.

matty blue

January 21st, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^

interesting (to me, at least) that that team was 1-6 on january 22, 2011:  as it happens, almost exactly four years ago.

those four years have been completely enjoyable, and they include lots and lots of moments where the path that the team or individual players might take wasn't at all clear.  the constant?  great coaching that wrung a whole lot of production out of some fairly raw talent.  that's still here, and still being applied to yet another young group of as-yet-unformed talent.  there's no reason to not continue to give this staff every benefit of the doubt.

in beilein we trust, man.

growler4

January 21st, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^

I really like Coach Belein and I think he's been a great addition to Michigan, along with his assistants.

Yet, I wish he would recruit at least one big man - center or power forward - whose strength is banging inside for points and rebounding. His system is fun to watch, but relies a LOT on perimeter shooting. When they're not dropping, as we've too often seen this year, it would be nice to have a reliable inside game to fall back on.

(Given that his system relies so much on shooters and how bad they're shooting it this year ... where is the criticism for talent evaluation and development? If this had been Hoke, he'd be excoriated.  ... Not really intended to be a criticism, but shedding some light on what I perceive to be a double standard.)

Furthermore, I find it unfortunate that he and his staff have been unable to parlay their recent on court success into more successful recruiting. I'm certainly not giving up on this year's recruits, but I'm a little underwhelmed given our recent tournament success and disappointed that we missed out on some guys who might have had a greater immediate impact. Perhaps it will take more continued success over a period of time before we get those guys on a consistent basis, as we had been down so long until recently.

Last night's game was, IMO, a painful joy to watch. Not great basketball by any stretch, but a gritty win by a bunch of hard working overachievers led by a heckuva game coach whose maneuvers really had an impact on the game. 

Soon, though, we hit some major top of the conference competition, so expectations really need to be realistically dampened.

 

jmblue

January 21st, 2015 at 3:24 PM ^

I'm resigned to the NIT

That's not even a given. It used to be that power-conference teams with .500 records were virtual locks, but not anymore. Indiana went 17-15 overall last year and didn't get a bid.

OysterMonkey

January 21st, 2015 at 3:42 PM ^

Yeah, I think we may end up having to root for a lot of smaller conference regular season champs to win their conference tournaments to keep a large number of NIT bids open to sniff that field.

I think if Beilein can manufacture five more wins there's a chance (and yes, yes, Beilein uber alles), but man, it's hard to see five more wins on the schedule unless a number of guys get healthier or better pretty quickly.

It'd be great for a team this young to get some postseason experience, so hopefully Beilein's wizardry shows itself the rest of the way.

Is the CBI still a thing?

alum96

January 21st, 2015 at 3:26 PM ^

Amazing fact - the only guy currently playing for Michigan from that 2012 class is Spike.  That's only 2.5 years ago - everyone else went to the NBA or just got hurt (Caris).  Ridiculous turnover.  I'd have to double check but I thought I read somewhere UM sent more guys to the NBA the past 2 years than Kentucky. 

gwkrlghl

January 21st, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^

It's crazy to look back on that title game team

Starting line-up

PG  Trey Burke (So.)        2013 #9

SG  THJ (Jr.)                      2013 #24

SF  Nik Stauskas (Fr.)      2014 #8

PF  GRIII (Fr.)                    2014 #40

C    Mitch McGary (Fr.)     2014 #21

6th  Caris LeVert (Fr.)      2015 proj. 1st rounder

I mean, all of those guys save for THJ were underclassmen. The fact that basically none were one-and-done types, all left for the NBA within 2 years, and we're somehow still decent is kind of incredible. Those should be your juniors and seniors. If this was Izzo none would've developed and we'd have a pretty nice team right now. Can't really fault Beilein much for being a wizard

Hoops McCann

January 21st, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^

With LeVert out for year there is absolutely no pressure at all on these young guys. Rutgers obviously thought it had a W before tip off.

As long as the team plays together and works on defense, they will win a few games. I would also like to see less driving the baseline from the corner because this team cannot afford to turn the ball over. Spikes turnover number is troubling but he can only improve on that.

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 4:07 PM ^

While I agree that Dawkins seems underrated a lot of the freshman year difference is explained by Beilein's system. 

Beilein knows what to do with an athletic wing player that can hit 3s. He's been playing these kind of guys for years.  He made Zak Novak (a guard who couldn't create his own shot) into a 4-man.  He made GR3 (a conventional prototypical SF) into a 4.  He pigeon-holed Nik Stauskas (PG skills) into a corner shooting SF his freshman year.  If you can shoot, he'll find a fit.  That's JB's jam.

However, he doesn't know what to do with a versatile frontcourt player that doesn't have a consistent jump shot (yet).  If it made sense at all, he'd probably try to turn him into a C a la Smotrycz, but the team makeup doesn't allow it (and Kam's not a good enough rebounder yet anyway). 

If you're Mike Krzyszewki or Tom Izzo, you don't take a SF that can't dribble when you can take a PF that has killer passing skills, ball skills, size and athleticism.  You push him to be tougher and you build a gritty Draymond Green type out of the raw size and skills that Kam offers.  If you're John Beilein, the choice is less obvious.  Especially in the short run.

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^

Michigan is no different than Kentucky, MSU, Kansas or anybody else.  It needs great talent to thrive and that means being successful on the recruiting trail..

This isn't some inevitable fall-off because Michigan isn't a program that recruits 5-star talent -- this is a reflection of the failure that was 2014 recruiting.

The 2012 class was ranked #7 in the Country.  We made the Great 8 the next two seasons.

The 2014 class was #27 despite having SIX(!) players in it.  None of them are ready to contribute significantly to championship-caliber team.

Beilein missed on all his first-cut targets.  The Bookers and Blackmons are elsewhere and we were left to grab 2-star post-grads. [I'm sure some of them will be fine complementary players, but the talent level is not high enough to contend for titles without a lot of help.]

The trouble is that 2015 recruiting has gone/is going just as badly, and now the entire program is banking on the 2016 class to deliver talent.

Erik_in_Dayton

January 21st, 2015 at 6:31 PM ^

That's the situation in a nutshell (thought I suppose there is a slim chance Michigan lands Jaylen Brown).  If I were still capable of feeling angst about a Michigan team (which I'm not b/c this football season drained that capability from me), I would be pretty angsty about the 2016 class. The recent suggestion that Derryck Thornton has lost interest in Michigan is bad news.

AC1997

January 21st, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^

Forgive me if this sounds like a negative to Caris Levert, who is a player I enjoy watching and seems like a good all-around guy.  I was shocked that his assist rate was so high.  He doesn't feel like he ever sets up a teammate.  Am I crazy?

 

Morris, Burke, and Stauskas used to always drive to the hoop or use the screen-and-roll with the distinct possibility of setting up a teammate.  Morris struggled at times by not being able to shoot and Burke struggled at times to pass over/around the roll defender, but all three would find a streaking big man or corner shooter several times per game.  When I watch Levert play he feels like someone who never runs a screen-and-roll (prefering an iso play) and rarely if ever sets up a teammate for an easy shot.  In some ways he reminds me of Manny Harris - a very talented player capable of anything, but not someone who generates offense for others.  The book on him is probably this - put your best defender on him and when he drives, bring help because he's not likely to pass, thus forcing him into a tough shot.   

 

I think what this young team who lacks playmakers needs is someone to set them up for easy shots.  Levert might just not be that guy - he brings different skills to the table.  And since most of his drives result in fairly inefficient mid-range shots instead of layups he also isn't as efficient by himself as his predecessors.  Topping it all off, you know he's getting the other team's best defender.  

(Walton is struggling with what Burke went thru as a freshman - he's too small to get easy passes to people in the screen game, especially when we don't have GR3 streaking for a dunk along the baseline. )

UMaD

January 21st, 2015 at 4:51 PM ^

Caris isn't a PG, but his passing skills are solid.  Last year, when Nik struggled earlier in the year with facing the oppositions A-1 defenders (e.g., Duke) it was Caris that stepped up and led the team.  Passing and scoring.  Nik needed help.  Caris needs help too. It's a team game.

This team is just not athletic enough up front.  How many times have you seen Donnal and Doyle attempt layups when others would be throwing down dunks?  How would the team look with GR3 streaking towards the rim instead of whatever Kam is doing on offense (waiting for the ball)?  Then you have a huge regression in Walton, Spike, and Irvin's 3 percentage.  They are getting looks, just not hitting them, as you saw last night.

Caris isn't the passer that Nik and the PGs were, sure, but he is good.  Certainly better than Manny, who was really made for one on one ball with that lightining first step and acceleration (which BTW is still getting him buckets at the NBA/NBDL level). What changed the most between Nik's team last year and Caris' team this year was subtracting the complementary pieces (losing Horford, McGary, Morgan, GR3, Cars and replacing them with Doyle, Donnal, Dawkins, and Chatman).  That allows the opposing teams to focus on option A.  In other words Caris' job this year was harder than Nik's last year, that's without even talking about the defensive situation.

So let's not go there without knocking Caris.  Let's just hope he comes back next year because it's a HUGE enormous difference to the 2015-16 team that will otherwise lack for athleticism.