First Look: 2016 Offense Comment Count

Brian

DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.

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[Fuller/Fuller/Barron]

  1. QB Jake Rudock. Iowa transfer was a jittery mess for the first half and Andrew Luck Jr for the second. Cracked 3,000 passing yards with good efficiency and a solid TD/INT ratio; ended year by dicing up three top-ten pass defenses. Will be missed unless Harbaugh just Harbaughs himself another excellent QB, which is Harbaugh likely.
  2. C Graham Glasgow. Three year starter was always good even if it was near-impossible to tell without going into UFR-level depth. Stepped up as a senior and was, IMO, an All Big Ten-level performer. Michigan has a couple promising options to replace him; don't underrate his loss.
  3. TE AJ Williams. Went from symbol of the flaccid Hoke era to symbol of the player development Jim Harbaugh brings to the table. Improved his blocking immensely, quadrupled career receiving stats, was no longer a one-dimensional tight end who did not actually deliver on that dimension, blew guys off ball with consistency. I don't think I've ever seen a senior get that much better since… Bennie Joppru? Probably Bennie Joppru.
  4. FBs Sione Houma and Joe Kerridge. Treated as a unit. Solid to excellent blockers both with Kerridge a capable receiver and captain and Houma a promising mooseback capable of juking Florida linebackers. Normally a position met with a shrug these days, it's a much bigger deal under Harbaugh. Henry Poggi returns but hasn't touched a ball in anger yet.
  5. As of yet unknown attrition. Departures are on the way. Some of those will undoubtedly be on offense. Guys not playing at WR, RB, and QB are likely to be amongst the departures. None project to have significant 2016 roles unless the wild Rivals rumor about a starting OL not being asked back pans out. I'm skeptical about that.

WHAT'S LEFT

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[Upchurch/Fuller/Fuller]

  1. TE Jake Butt. 654 receiving yards a year ago with two-count-em-two drops all year. Blocking was finesse but relatively effective. Smoked touted Florida CB on route in bowl game. Should be nation's top receiving tight end and get that Mackey award he was inexplicably denied this year. A bit more oomph on the ground would be nice.
  2. OL Mason Cole. Emerged into a top-shelf run blocker in year two. Pass blocking was generally good but there were struggles against elite edge rushers like Yannick Ngakoue and Joey Bosa. Smart, technical player could get moved inside if Grant Newsome is Michigan's #5 OL.
  3. WR Jehu Chesson. Comparisons went from Stonum to Breaston to Manningham over the course of the season. Multi-use threat effective as a runner, blocker, and increasingly as a receiver. 764 yards and 9 TDs despite being chronically missed for the first half of the season, plus a KOR TD and a number of jet sweeps that went a long way. Has his shit together.
  4. WR Amara Darboh. Avant comparisons were on point, as he amply demonstrated on that catch. You know. That one. Solid intermediate threat with excellent hands and a large catching radius. Avant-esque. Like Avant. Reminiscent of Avant.
  5. RB De'Veon Smith. Nuclear-powered icebreaker back was frustrating much of the year but great against the Gators. If proverbial click has clicked and he knows where to go most of the time can be prototypical Harbaugh back. Superior blocker; may get drafted at fullback part-time a la BJ Askew.
  6. OLs Erik Magnuson, Kyle Kalis, and Ben Braden. All thrown into the same lump because they were more or less the same guy. All had their struggles, particularly the guards; all had their successes. All are likely to get incrementally better as senior returning starters, but it wouldn't be out of the question for one of them to get knocked out of the lineup if Kugler and Newsome emerge or Michigan picks up Texas grad transfer Jake Raulerson.
  7. FB/TE Henry Poggi. Last year's version of early AJ Williams. Had one catch for two yards, did not carry the ball, was a blocker and only a blocker. As a blocker he was generally effective when he made contact with a person. He failed to accomplish this with understandable frequency since he was flipped from the DL in spring. Should improve significantly in that department but must be more of a threat to have the ball.
  8. RB Drake Johnson. Michigan's quickest back by far but career has been limited by injury.
  9. RB/WR Jabrill Peppers. Oh right that guy. In year two under Harbaugh should emerge as a guy who gets ten touches a game on a variety of screens, sweeps, and straight-up runs and throws.

WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY

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O'Korn is generally considered the leader at QB [Fuller]

Probably John O'Korn. Michigan's QB derby is currently a five-way battle that will add a sixth contender in Brandon Peters and maybe a seventh if Harbaugh goes back to the grad-transfer well, but after a season of scout-team hype anyone other than Houston transfer O'Korn would be a moderate surprise.

O'Korn is the platonic opposite of Jake Rudock. He is Ryan Mallett, more or less, capable of throwing for 3,000 yards as a true freshman and equally capable of going full Hackenberg on WR screens in an increasingly frustrating situation and getting deservedly benched as a sophomore. He is a big, strapping fellow with good wheels who can uncork pinpoint 40-yard passes on the run. He threw an array of insane interceptions and made other mistakes in bunches at Houston, but given a year of understudy under Harbaugh both the natural maturation process and the coaching upgrade promise big things.

Half the running back rotation. This space projects that De'Veon Smith ends up absorbing most of the carries from the fullback spot and plays enough RB to remain Michigan's leading rusher. That will leave about half the total carries available. Peppers, Karan Higdon, Ty Isaac, and freshmen Kareem Walker and Kingston Davis figure to scrap over the remainder.

Only Peppers is a lock to get a bunch of touches, because he is Peppers. The rest could go anywhere; Michigan fans are hoping the freshmen step up immediately. It could happen.

An offensive lineman, maybe two. Grant Newsome is a heavy favorite to be the fifth starter on the offensive line after Michigan burned his redshirt midseason so he could be a sixth OL in heavy packages. Newsome is an ideal left tackle, though, and Michigan has an incumbent. Look for Mason Cole to move inside, as his run blocking is considerably ahead of his pass protection.

It is possible that Michigan could mix things up more extensively if they feel their best five includes Patrick Kugler or Raulerson, potentially bumping Mason Cole to guard instead of center. If that happens it's probably a good thing.

Receivers and blocky/catchy types past the Big Three. We're filing Grant Perry as "new" since he made little impact last year except in the first and last games. In the former case that impact was massively negative; in the latter a pleasant surprise. Perry, Drake Harris, Moe Ways, and tight ends Ian Bunting and Khalid Hill will compete to fill snaps vacated by Williams and the departing fullbacks.

Unless there's an injury none will emerge into prime targets; the goal there is for Michigan to have guys ready to step in when Darboh, Chesson, and Butt all depart after next year.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1976

The peripheral nature of most of the previous section's bullet points. Michigan needs to find a QB, an OL, and half a running back. They have less to replace than 95% of D-I programs.

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[Fuller]

Three Amigos 2016. Butt, Darboh, and Chesson are a receiving trio that might be on par with the famous Braylon/Avant/Breaston set. If Chesson continues his development he is a legit #1; Butt probably would have been the second tight end off the board if he announced for the NFL draft; Darboh is a circus-catch wizard and burly possession guy to move the chains. Nobody in the league is going to have a set of pass-catchers like that.

Continuity. Hey look Michigan has the same coaching staff for the second consecutive year, running the same offense. They have the same players running it, for the most part. This has been a rare treasure of late.

Experience. Michigan projects to have seniors start at eight of eleven positions, and one of the exceptions is Mason Cole.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2016

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how much better can these gentlemen get? [Upchurch]

Blocking upside. I thought Michigan had two very good offensive linemen and three guys who were meh. One of the very good guys is gone; the three meh guys are all going to be redshirt seniors. I'm not sure how much any of them will improve. I mean, they should improve, but the kind of leap Cole took last year from meh to very good is unlikely.

Similarly, I don't think Jake Butt is suddenly going to be a murderous blocker. This doesn't feel like a run game that gets amazing unless it was really all targeting issues.

WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY

The O'Kornininging, or Speightininging, or Whoeverining. New quarterback is always a worry, albeit less so when Jim Harbaugh is his quarterback coach. O'Korn has all the tools you could want and seemingly went to Houston because he was wild and unrefined. He could be Ryan Mallett or he could be Ryan Mallett, if you get my drift.

Will the tailbacks be any good? I'd give that position group a D for the year. Kareem Walker may not be the quick fix everyone was vaguely hoping for when they heard the #1 back in the country was going to decommit from OSU and flip to Michigan. Recruiting consensus on Walker has dipped to the point where he's a good, not great prospect. (This might actually be good for Michigan given the track record of five-star backs in Ann Arbor.)

Smith and Johnson gave a glimmer of hope in the bowl game, enough to bump this from bad to dunno.

MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS

It all hinges on INSERT QB HERE. If he comes in hot and we get a year of Late Rudock production this should be an offense that takes a major step forward. Whoever does  get the job is going to have a terrific receiving corps, solid or better pass protection, and Jabrill Peppers hanging around.

The run game is a bit of a question mark still. Michigan has no slam-dunk back and probably won't see their OL take a quantum leap forward. Real improvement is likely, though. Michigan gets four OL back and will have continuity, plus both returning tailbacks who played in the bowl showed major improvement.

For context, Michigan finished 30th in offensive S&P+ this year, 43rd on the ground and 8th(!!!) in the air. They should be able to push the ground number up 10 to 20 spots, and if O'Korn hits the ground running and maintains that passing number—somewhat tough but he'll be operating in a friendly environment—Michigan should get into the top 20 teams statistically.

I'd say maintaining the passing production is unlikely,  but a quick glance at Jim Harbaugh's track record with quarterbacks suggests it is anything but.

Comments

bklein09

January 6th, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^

It's a huge help to have a relatively easy start to the season next year. Not Hawaii is no Utah. That should allow the new QB and other various parts a couple games to work out the kinks. Main goal is to be running on all cylinders come conference play.



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MeanJoe07

January 6th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^

I'd say maintaining the passing production is unlikely,  but a quick glance at Jim Harbaugh's track record with quarterbacks suggests it is anything Butt.

Yinka Double Dare

January 6th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^

Whoever starts at QB will have a nice cushy intro, unlike Rudock. Our OOC schedule suuuuuucks. The first two were bottom 10 in S&P+. Colorado's the best of the bunch and they just barely avoided being in the triple digits in S&P+. 

And while the first two conference opponents are solid teams they both come to Ann Arbor. The first road game is the only roadie of the bunch against a team that was not a really good team in 2015, and it's not an intimidating setting. And then a bye and home against Illinois. By that time, if kinks in the offense need to be worked out with the new QB, they ought to be largely fixed when we hit the three nasty road trips in the last 5 games.

Yard Dog

January 6th, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^

whoever he may be, playing at a high level.  As mentioned, Rudock had virtually no time with Harbaugh (29 practices, are you kidding me?) to get the offense down while actually running plays.  His ascendancy throughout the season was unreal.  Harbaugh truly is the QB whisperer.  If O'Korn possesses the tools we all believe he has, the season could be very, very special.  The receiving corp is the best in the B1G by far, and he should have an adequate running game to rely upon.  Can't wait to see how it plays out.

vertiGoBlue

January 6th, 2016 at 4:31 PM ^

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see a jump from 'meh' to 'something significantly greater than meh' for one of more of the returning 5th year OL with regard to run blocking.

It's become clear that player development was not a strong suit of the Hoke era and this will be only the 2nd year under non-Hoke-era coaching for the OL. Thus, perhaps there is still a significant (positive) gap between what those folks were able to accomplish 2015 and what they'll be able to do in 2016.

Bertello NC

January 6th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^

I agree it could get better - given the coaching staff and their relentless approach to getting better today than you were yesterday mentality. Players just simply were not pushed under Hoke like they are being pushed now. I will say that the Oline could stand to get a little more athletic. Just my opinion on it. Sticking/sustaining blocks and ability to kick out, locate, and get to second level defenders when pulling ect, could improve a little. I do however think that the o line will be improved just from the sure fact of most of them being together and working together more. As well as quality competition.



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WestQuad

January 6th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

Is Derrick Green just assumed done?   He isn't listed as leaving or as being in the RBs.  He hasn't been great, but sort of sucks to be a forgotten man.

TheReal_GR3

January 6th, 2016 at 4:38 PM ^

Like most of you I understand how important FB play will be to this team. Because of that Poggi is critcal for next season. One thing I haven't seen mentioned is his phyiscal development. I think his body will look very different next year. Poggi was listed by some in the 250 range in high school back in 2013. Poggi appear to be having trouble putting on enough weight to be an effective DE. He finally put on decent weight to the 275ish just to move to offense. 

I believe we will see Poggi move to a better FB/TE weight of 250 and thus he will move much better and as noted above do a bette job of making contact. I believe his weight will have a huge impact on next year. 

I don't think we will see this but I would like to see Poggi play move TE if the staff can find another FB. I like Bunting and Hill a lot but I still remember that Nick Saban wanted Poggi as a TE. Just something I keep thinking about. 

 

DualThreat

January 6th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

"He is a big, strapping fellow with good wheels who can uncork pinpoint 40-yard passes on the run."

... has a three word key phrase that puts my mind at ease about O'Korn. 

While Navarre and Henne were good QBs, boy did they seem like statues.  Give me a QB that can get a first down with his legs when the play breaks down.

Bertello NC

January 6th, 2016 at 5:04 PM ^

Couldn't agree more! As good as Rudock was I have an inkling that OKorn could be special. Maybe not right out of the gates but I feel like with JH and fisch and an upgraded Oline, run game, trustworthy receivers(Chesson, Harris, and even peppers with ability to pop the top off the D downfield) Butt, Bunting, Hill, Wheatley, all could play big parts in this offense and catapult OKorn into a big time spotlight!



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mgoBrad

January 6th, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^

Current S&P Rankings, for reference (Offense // Defense // Overall):

Alabama: 25 // 1 // 1

Clemson: 10 // 4 // 2

OSU: 14 // 8 // 3

M: 30 // 2 // 6

MSU: 27 // 12 // 13

If we can maintain a top-two defense (not infeasible with our returning group) while moving into the Top 20 on offense.... oh man.

ifis

January 6th, 2016 at 4:54 PM ^

I really felt like once Rudock and the recievers started clicking in the deep passing game, it helped out the entire offense by forcing the D to play honest.  The next QB should be able to do that.

This is most important against Sparty.  We need to work on the hard-to-execute deep pass plays that State dares college offenses to try.  

AC1997

January 6th, 2016 at 4:59 PM ^

My initial reaction to the Passing Game prediction was to scoff.  Ruddock just had the second best yardage years in Michigan history and lead the conference in completion percentage.  He was also a 2-year starter in the B10.  Anyone (O'Korn, Morris, etc.) who steps in would have a really hard time coming close to that expectation.  

 

However, reading the comments, I'm less worried.  The new starter will walk into the job with three great receiving threats (plus Perry), an experienced OL and RB, and will already have a year with Harbaugh and this offensive staff.  Then he gets to face the weak non-conference schedule to start things off. 

Glennsta

January 6th, 2016 at 11:11 PM ^

... if it's O'Korn walking in as the starter, he has a few years experience starting in D1, albeit not in Harbaugh's system.  I'm pretty confident that prepping, watching and practicing in this system for a year is going to mean a ton for him.  I'll be shocked if he doesn't put up big numbers next year.

Jonesy

January 7th, 2016 at 3:04 PM ^

The 2nd ever yardage mark is pretty impressive but we do play an extra game these days, we obviously werent going to come near that mark during the last seven years, and our run game was pretty bad necessitating we pass more.  Rudock had a good year but I don't think it was a great year.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

January 6th, 2016 at 5:02 PM ^

I'm sure I think Houma/Kerridge should go ahead of A.J. Williams in the significance department.  We have many tight ends and will easily develop more.  I mean, just having Jake Butt means it's OK to lose Williams regardless of the awesome boost in awesomeness Williams underwent.  In fact, it's that very development that makes me not worry.  We can develop more fullbacks, too, and it's kind of an easy position to develop, but without any experienced ones on the roster, it matters.

Houma is the distinct opposite of the 12 years of eligibility granted to all Wisconsin basketball players.  Hoke buried him so thoroughly that I swear I thought he was a sophomore until a month into the season.

BlueMan80

January 6th, 2016 at 5:08 PM ^

We had good health on the offensive side of the ball this season, so may that carry over to 2016.  We need to develop some depth on the O-line and at WR.  Depth at QB could be important, too.  Harbaugh has first hand knowledge of that (1984).

However, in general, things are looking pretty, pretty, pretty good on offense.

Wings Of Distinction

January 6th, 2016 at 5:22 PM ^

In the other half of RB you mentioned Kingston Davis, but not Enis, who from what I can tell is a superior back....in fact, I hope the Walker addition does not cause him to rethink his committment...Enis will be a stud.

Go Blue!

Alumnus93

January 6th, 2016 at 5:52 PM ^

Salozzo may not even be in the car, Sonny !!!!!!!!

Word is that the staff hasn't been in contact with Enis for months.

Wings Of Distinction

January 6th, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^

That is bad news. I had a feeling the Walker commit might squeeze him out one way or another...that sucks. Call me crazy, I think Enis will be the better back....hopefully he still signs.

In reply to by Wings Of Distinction

Magnus

January 7th, 2016 at 9:57 AM ^

I'm not sure that Enis will even remain at tailback. He doesn't look like a very natural runner. He's more of a straight-line guy who outran a bunch of people in Indiana. I think he'll end up as a safety.