I believe the defense could be scary good next year if some guys progress. Add in Peppers and the defense will be near the top of the Big Ten at least.
things go poorly
Black and Gordon are the only two starters departing. [Eric Upchurch and Bryan Fuller]
Pipkins and Henry are big boys. [Fuller]
A nose tackle! Probably. Also, more size. Michigan's line went from somewhat undersized to massively so when Pipkins went out and Beyer moved from SAM to SDE, giving you a line that often read: Beyer(250 lbs), Black (285), Henry (306), Clark (280). In retrospect, that was asking for it, and Ohio State gave us what we asked for.
Next year Black is out, replaced by some combination of Pipkins, Henry, Maurice Hurst, and maybe Richard Ash. If Henry does get drafted into the nose rotation, Godin and Wormley will probably man the three-tech at 300-ish pounds each. Beyer, meanwhile, will embark on the bacon smoothie diet Craig Roh did as he prepared to play his senior year as an undersized SDE, and while he's still going to be less than ideal at that spot he'll be a lot more plausible at 280.
Jabrill Peppers. Is it too much to hype Jabrill Peppers up as a potential program-changing dude? In year one, probably. But there's an obvious role for him on this defense: boundary corner. Michigan's DBs are generally tiny dudes, and the guys who aren't, like Channing Stribling, are skinny. Michigan could use a 210 pound corner, especially since that pushes Taylor to the nickel package, and that seems like a pretty good nickel package.
Someone next to Wilson. The greatest uncertainty on the defense is who takes over for Thomas Gordon. Josh Furman is an option after getting some playing time late last year; he does not seem like a good one. The other candidates:
It's nice to have four options instead of two, or one, or zero; there is no indicator who's going to get the nod. Something to watch in spring.
Veterans. I've piled the various returning DL into one bullet point and glossed over Channing Stribling and Jourdan Lewis; Michigan loses just two starters and three contributors while returning everyone else. They'll have three year starters at CB (two, in fact), LB (also two), and on the DL (possibly two, depending on how you classify Brennen Beyer).
Depth. Five guys go out the door, and in compensation Michigan gets to age 14 defensive linemen and welcome in Bryan Mone early. Michigan has a solid two deep everywhere on the line save NT, which is still in the air; they return three ILBs with a lot of experience; they may be bumping a senior three year starter to nickel depending on Peppers, and where do Lewis and Stribling go this year, let alone the two corners they redshirted a year ago?
Pass rush. Michigan was 70th in sack percentage (sacks / (passing attempts + sacks)) this year, which is worlds better than it felt like. It is still not good. A half step forward from Frank Clark gets him to 8 or 10, and then a full year of a healthy Jake Ryan adds another 5 or 6, and… actually, you're getting towards pretty good already there. There is the potential for this to move into the 30s, which would be a huge boost to every unit's pass defense.
Getting crushed by spread 'n' shreds. This post was going to be a lot sunnier before the last two games of the year, in which Michigan was bludgeoned. Before that they'd turned in a lot of good performances in which they gave up the ghost late. Their one truly bad performance was getting smoked by Indiana, and that was seemingly more for reasons of unfamiliarity and lack of preparation than out-and-out talent.
Then OSU and KSU laid waste. Now you go back and look at Northwestern clubbing Michigan last year only to lose on a Hail Mary and South Carolina's crew of 5'9" speedsters slicing up M's secondary as South Carolina used their QB to paper over the fact their OL couldn't block for their tailback. Or Ohio State putting up 34 in their lost 6-7 year. There seems to be a developing narrative of Michigan failing to contain spread-to-run offenses more often than not. For every 2013 Minnesota there are two 2011 Ohio States. I would say this is reminiscent of the Carr era, but Michigan would have to be a lot better for that to be true.
Getting crushed generally, up the middle. I want to move Henry to nose tackle in my mind, but then 3-tech becomes this jumble of Wormley/Godin/Strobel/Poggi and I'm not sure how confident I am in that. But then: can you rely on Pipkins, and who is your 0.5 starter at nose? Hurst? Ash? I don't want to move Henry out of the starting lineup, but I don't want him trying to play two positions, and I don't want a questionable Pipkins backed up by a freshman.
Are the corners actually good? Now we get to extend this argument about Taylor to a larger stage. PRO: between them the two starting CBs had ten interceptions, virtually all of them the impressive sort where the corner makes a play. No batted balls here. CON: Michigan was 49th in YPA allowed at 6.9. PRO: with a crappy pass rush and safety issues. CON: what safety issues?
I'll take 10 INTs and slightly above average pass defense with that pass rush and those huge chunks of yards Stribling and Lewis gave up because of phasing/gypsy issues. Yes, Tyler Lockett annihilated them. Tyler Lockett does that to everybody. Every-damn-body. Against mortals, I would expect Taylor/Countess to be a high quality pairing. But, you know… Lockett.
What about James Ross? He was supposed to be the bees' knees according to someone. Oh, right, me. He was kind of eh, his year bookended by passing spread after passing spread in which he was mostly dropping into zones effectively and injury. More than anyone else he was hurt by having Black and Henry as DTs, as those guys tended to dart into the backfield to do something and get all the credit or get blown up. In the first case there was a guy releasing into him free; in the second he had to try to pick around three guys moving the wrong way to make his read worth anything.
I think Ross will be good if Michigan can keep him clean.
Oh good another new safety. I hate new safeties.
Despite the alarming trend at the end of the year, the arrow does point up for this outfit, which loses very few contributors and has a ton of guys competing to break through into the starting lineup. There are something like five cornerbacks I'd be relatively confident to see on the field, which is 3-5 more than usual. The linebackers return almost entirely intact; the line does as well. They should be better—possibly a lot better.
The major looming issue is defensive tackle. The Pipkins injury was the worst possible one for the defense to suffer, as they have scant options right now a position on the field where you need at least 1.5 starters.
I don't think I can predict this is a top 10-ish defense without one elite DL, and I don't think I see that happening. Clark and Henry both have potential; I don't think either is going to truly blow up. But plenty of depth and experience everywhere should provide Michigan an opportunity to cut down on the mistakes significantly and ramp it up against everyone who can't just maul them on the line. How many teams will be able to do that… let's say two? Two.
I still think this is a unit that takes a leap forward next year. It's a leap forward from ten spots further back now, but a legit top 20 outfit is my median expectation.
I believe the defense could be scary good next year if some guys progress. Add in Peppers and the defense will be near the top of the Big Ten at least.
I can get on board with this. I'm not sure if it was personnel-related or what, but I think GMat needs to be more aggressive next season. We let too many teams take it to us this year.
I could not agree more about that. I am hoping with Thomas and Peppers Michigan will throw some more blitzes in from different directions. I am also hoping that the lineman get some more rush next year. I believe they will.
Blitz more, blitz less. Who cares. We need a four man rush to be successful. Blitzing is like a defensive constraint play. When you have to rely fully upon them to make things happen, your going to get adjusted to and beat.
Stanford was rushing 3 guys and got pressure last night! Multiple times. Against 6 blockers!
But Sparty also threw for, what, 322yds or something. So, not sure how much of an impact to helping them win it actually made. It was impressive to see nevertheless.
Cook made some nice plays. He was able to move in the pocket or out of the pocket to extend plays and make some nice throws.
Sure, but he had a lot of time on a lot of plays. When the couple good Stanford pass rushers won their one-on-one matchups, Cook got eaten up a few times. Outside of that, he had a lot of time to throw.
It seems like our secondary insists on letting the WR catch the ball before making a hit. MSU for example seems to meet them at the ball. Hopefully we cut this inside and in front BS and start laying the wood.
I really, desperately want a D the caliber of what MSU has now. I don't know if its in the cards, or if Mattison is more of a finesse guy. But building a quality D system has MSU where they are now. Which ticks me off and makes me jealous.
They have four very talented and very experienced DBs. It's not just a scheme thing. When our DBs are that good (and they will be soon, I believe) we'll be able to play differently.
is the rumbling from his time with Baltimore. If I remember correctly the feeling was he was too inclined to sit back on D rather than take an aggressive approach. Can any Ravens fans support or contradict my fuzzy recollection? Please weigh in.
What's the consensus on Gedeon being a contributor next year? Most of this season has blended together into a big gray mush of a memory, but I vaguely remember being impressed with a few plays he made.
I hope he improves big time and supplants Morgan. Of the two, he has much more natural ability, and it showed in flashes. He can do things physically that Morgan will never be able to do, like recover quickly and cover a route in the flat.
No way man. Give me Morgan all day long. A Senior leader who brings a stick and never misses a tackle over a sophomore any day. His assignments/D-line calls will be better. He makes sick one-handed-if-woodson-was-a-linebacker-esque interceptions.
He should definitely get some decent time as a back-up.
i think he'll actually be given the shot to pass ross.
I think Gedeon has a chance to be a special player, starting next year. This defense really needs a boost in size and speed and a player like Gedeon certainly offers both.
I'm not concerned by the final two games.
Ohio State average 8 yards a carry against Penn State and Wisconsin. They averaged 6.8 yards a carry against MSU. While we gave up 8.5, we did it without Pipkins and after we had lost Ross the week before. The only team that really stopped them was Iowa, who gave up 5.4 YPC. I felt much better about the OSU game after they did something similar to MSU the week after in the Big Ten Championship. They have one of the best rushing attacks in the country and they bludgeon everyone they come across. Our biggest problem in that game (because we were likely never going to stop them on the ground), was Wilson also being unable to play and that more than likely led to the early Miller TD pass.
As for the bowl game...I just don't look into it that much. Some games just aren't going to mean much to a team and the BWW probably mattered very little to Michigan. There wasn't anything to prove or achieve, other than maybe winning one for the seniors. If you're a team that began the year with title aspirations, who then loses four of your last five including a heartbreaker to your rival, its probably difficult to get up for a 7-5 vs. 7-5 match-up.
I also think we'll be a top-20 unit and depending on injuries/development/Ryan returning to normal/Peppers being all-everything from the beginning, we could have a defense that wins us games rather than keeps us in them.
That's odd... people sure didn't feel like that after getting pantsed by Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl.
The only thing to play for in that game was RR's job. I'd imagine that the players were sick of that season from hell as well.
someone tell all that bowl-not-carin- shit to KSU.
if that's truly the main reason for the performance in the bowl game, that's a bigger indictment on Hoke than anything else I could think of.
2009 Sugar Bowl, Alabama vs. Utah. Do you really think Utah was a better team than Alabama or that Whittingham is that much better of a coach than Saban? Or was it that Alabama just didn't care as much because they thought they'd be in the NCG instead of playing a MWC team? It happens, especially to guys in their late teens, early 20s.
...and I've always thought of that game as one of the low points of Saban's tenure at Bama. I'll bet he'd say the same. I think we all understand the propensity of college kids to be inconsistent and/or flat for bowls, but as Michigan Arrogance points to, KSU somehow got themselves fired up for the game - and they played in the Fiesta Bowl last year. A coach has to remind a team that every game that you play for Michigan is a big game. Pride is always at stake.
Agreed and I'd hope that the coaches look at that game and realize they need to do a better job motivating the players, but do you really think it has an impact on next year?
It could have a positive impact and/or a negative one.
Positive: Gives the coaches something to hit the team over the head with every day in practice.
Negative: Gives recruits something to hit Michigan over the head with until their signing day.
I suppose, I just think that if a recruit decided he wasn't going to come here, he would have made that decision when we were 7-5.
I'm talking more about expectations for next year though. Does that game really decrease your opinion of next year's team? Does it make you think the previous 2.8 years of Greg Mattison were a mirage?
I've been wary of taking bowl games like this too seriously after Notre Dame got all hyped up over their 2008 Hawaii Bowl victory. Supposedly that was supposed to vault them back into the big time. They ended up 6-6.
it decreases my confidence in Hoke's ability to motivate and prepare players for a football game.
it is one more small, small data point that goes in the negative column. Call it a "loss" if you will.
More than lack of motivation. Our performance in the copper bowl was gutless. I watched a team in Michigan State that, last night, played like the Michigan teams used to play when motivation was the head coach's boot up their ass.
One big difference is that Alabama was arrogant enough to believe that they were going to just waltz in and roll Utah. I'm assuming there was no such feeling for us towards KSU.
I think the loss of Gardner took the fight out of the team. Shane proved to be a gamer, but still, we were overmatched with him in there and everyone knew it. Did anyone really think we had a chance once we knew Devin was out?
First off, I wanna say this was funny.
When Willie Henry says he trusts a man as far as he can throw them, he means it as a compliment.
Then, I want to second your confidence in the CB spot. Idk how you get into a spot where you will be upset that the fifth corner doesn't see the field enough, but I feel like I will be in that spot next year (NO GREG MATTISON, THAT DOES NOT MEAN ROTATE THE DBs ALL YEAR TO MAKE ME HAPPY!). But just run through them. Countess & Taylor (because obviously), Stribling & Lewis where pretty damn good as true freshman for being true freshman. Add a year of S&C, and technique. You have your dime package all set there. No need to go any further. That is the best defensive backfield in the B1G.
/gets handed a note
Oh fuck, where are we going to put Jabrill Peppers?
Can we just be good again? I'm talking 9-3 with a nice win good. Is that too much?
God, I would take 9-3 with a good win (or 2) so hard right now.
9-3 would've been good enough for this year. 9-3 next and i still think hoke's future is uncertain.
It would largely depend on how that 9-3 came to be, I'd think. But even if it's 9 close wins and 3 blowout loses to ND, MSU, and OSU, I think Hoke would get a fifth year.
Brandon will extend his contract--and I mean that seriously
We have had one 9+ win season in 6 years. I'll fucking take it okay? Hoke's job security be damned.
"She's got cankles, an irritating, braying laugh and bad breath, but hey, she has a nice complexion!"
Last time we were 9-3 people were putting paper bags on their heads that said "Fire Carr" ...those were the days
Based on the belief that the 2014 D-line will be much more effective than the 2013 edition.
However, I have little confidence that the same will be true on the other side of the ball.
Just curious why you believe the DL will improve in 2014 but not the OL? Both lines had their best year in Hoke's first season at UM and have regressed since. Neither line appeared to improve much over the course of last season, though one could argue the OL actually improved more as the pass protection was much better by the bowl game.
that skepticism. Three years of at best an average DLine shouldn't give anybody optimism that year four will be one bit better than average.
It has a lot to do with the guys on the line. In year one, we had a very good DL with Martin and Van Bergen. Since then, we've had a mixture of young guys or "meh" upperclassmen. I'm not saying we have a lot of senior year Mike Martins next fall, but when you only lose 2 guys from a unit that played 10 every game,
I'll believe a true freshman corner who has yet to learn the Greg Mattison defense will be the program savior after I actually see it.
I know you've had a colorful commenting history, but I very much agree. Peppers will likely take some knocks in coverage and be very good by the end of the year or in 2015 by learning from his mistakes. He's also not the most important new player. That honor belongs to Hurst or Mone.
defensive player. I do not think he was talking about NFL potential. In terms of importance, I think he is one of the top 2 players on our defense. If he can pass rush effectively, a number of our problems would go away.
It's not 2013 anymore.