Fee Fi Foe Film: Utah Offense Comment Count

Ace


Red zone threat: check.

Utah is coming off a bye week, so they've only played two games this season: a 56-14 pasting of Idaho State and a 59-27 pasting of Fresno State. I chose to break down the latter pasting, which wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate—I stopped charting when Utah went up 38-7 while the video of that drive cut out due to a stadium power outage; from that point on, the backups took over.

Personnel. Seth's diagram says spread-to-pass because I told him the wrong thing based on the box score showing Utah with six touchdown passes against Fresno. They are, in fact, a spread-to-run outfit with a couple very dangerous receivers. As per usual, click the picture to embiggen.

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread-to-run. While Utah's done most of their scoring and yardage damage through the air this season, they use their running attack to set up the pass, and while this is a little skewed by the pair of blowouts they've run the ball 100 times compared to just 59 pass attempts this season.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Basketball on grass. While Utah mixes in some gap blocking, including a couple tricky variations on the read option that I'll highlight later, they're mostly focused on running zone read, inside zone, and a little outside zone out of the gun or pistol.

Hurry it up or grind it out? Very much hurry it up. Utah routinely got snaps off with 20+ seconds remaining on the play clock against Fresno State, and the only huddles occurred during timeouts. They're close to Indiana fast.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): With sacks removed, Travis Wilson gained 48 yards on nine carries against Fresno State, and last season he averaged nearly five YPC (without sacks removed) with five rush TDs. While he's not outrageously fast or shifty, he makes good reads in the option game, and his size (6'7", 233) allows him to cover ground quickly and fall forward for decent yards after contact. I'll give him a solid 6 here.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Dangerman: Wide receiver Dres Anderson is one of the best big-play threats in the country; he's coming off a junior season in which he tied for the lead nationally with seven receptions of 50+ yards and led the Pac-12 with 18.9 yards per catch. He torched Fresno State for a pair of scores, including this one:

Yes, the Bulldogs had a hiccup in coverage, but that's all it takes against Anderson—one false step and he'll take the top right off the defense. He could've had two more touchdowns in this one; the first play from scrimmage saw him beat man coverage clean over the top, but a slight underthrow allowed the defender to catch up after a big gain, and a second underthrow in the same situation later in the game turned a would-be score into an incompletion.

Zook Factor: Totally absent. Utah was aggressive, going for multiple fourth-and-shorts—they make these more difficult to defend by cranking up the tempo, as well. They looked very well-coached.

HenneChart: Wilson finished 11-for-20 for 181 yards and five touchdowns. There is a massive caveat here: Fresno State is currently dead last in pass efficiency defense, allowing opposing QBs to post a ridiculous 201.1 rating with 14 touchdowns to zero picks. This passes the eye test of their defense, which seemed to put a lot of guys in man coverage who weren't very good at man coverage. Anyway, here's the chart:

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
Fresno State 0 9 1 4 (1) 1 3 -- 2 -- 56%

Wait, this actually worked. Wilson hit the wide-open guys, had a few iffy throws to the sideline, and had a couple instances when he took too much time in the pocket or dropped too far back for the pocket to be relevant. He's not a pinpoint passer, but the defense in this case didn't make that a factor.

OVERVIEW

Formation chart:

Formations Run Pass PA
Gun 22 16 4
I-Form -- -- --
Ace -- -- --
Pistol 7 -- --

A spread, indeed. This chart makes it appear that Utah tips their hand in a major way when they line up in the pistol, but that's not the case; they actually line up with the RB directly behind the QB on nearly ever snap, then motion him next to the QB on one side or the other. This is their base set when all is said and done:

As for the play distribution, Utah really looked to get the run going on early downs:

Down Run Pass PA
1st 15 5 2
2nd 10 5 1
3rd 3 7 --

The consistency of the running game opens everything up for the rest of the offense. Wilson is a solid threat to keep on zone reads, and he's paired with a solid one-two running back rotation in JuCo transfer Devontae Booker and last year's starter, Bubba Poole. While Booker got the start and has better numbers this year, I liked Poole more in limited viewing—he turned a dead-in-the-water outside zone into a ten-yard gain with a couple nice jukes and finished his runs well.

The offensive line looks like a mixed bag. The left side, anchored by former top-250 recruit Jeremiah Poutasi at left tackle, held up very well in pass protection and got nice push in the running game. The right side had an up-and-down day blocking the run—the inside stuff mostly went okay, but runs to the outside often got blown up—and they gave up pressure against the passer on a consistent basis, both by getting beat clean and, in at least one instance, blowing their assignments on a stunt.

Anderson provides a scary big-play threat on the outside, and he's got a nice complement on the other side in Kenneth Scott, who leads the team with ten receptions this year. Scott has a sturdy frame, runs good routes, is tough to bring down in the open field, and can go up and get the football—he's making the touchdown catch in the screencap that graces the top of this post. If Michigan plans to play man coverage on these guys, the cornerbacks will really be tested, with a burner on one side and a very solid possession receiver on the other.

Utah's starting slot receiver, Kaelin Clay, has just two catches this year and wasn't a target during the portion of the game I watched; he is, however, a very dangerous return man, having scored via both punt and kickoff return in the season opener. He got dinged up (ankle) in the Fresno game on a return, but he's listed atop the depth chart this week and I haven't seen any news that he'll be out. Given his returning acumen, I'm guessing Clay is a threat to take a screen pass and turn it into a chunk play; Utah also ran a couple of end-arounds/reverses, and he seems like a good candidate to get one of those.

Westlee Tonga is listed as a tight end but lines up almost exclusively at H-back; he's the clear #3 receiver on this team, mostly as a short outlet for Wilson. He scored in this one on a fourth-and-one play in Fresno territory when the defense abandoned the seam and Tonga took a quick pass and ran through three defenders; he showed some nice wheels and power but I don't think Michigan will tackle that poorly.

Overall, this offense looks pretty dangerous, albeit with a couple potential flaws—namely, Wilson's accuracy (he threw 16 INTs last year and completed just 56% of his passes) and the right side of the line. Keeping a lid on Anderson looks like it'll be the biggest key in this game; he's got game-changing speed.

PLAY BREAKDOWN

I mentioned that Utah mostly runs zone blocking concepts. Here's their wrinkle to the inverted veer, which they'll block like they're running power instead of zone. They're running this out of their base set (a third WR is off the screen to the bottom):

On the snap, the left guard pulls to the right side while the rest of the line blocks down. The H-back arcs out towards the top of the screen, occupying the strongside linebacker:

The Utah OL has already crushed Fresno's DL as Wilson decides to keep—it's tough to see from the screencap, but he does a great job of waiting on the read until the MIKE (filling the gap that the pulling guard is about to enter) takes a step towards the outside:

As a bonus for Utah, the safety to the top of the screen also bugs out for the running back, opening up a big crease for Wilson:

The safety is the guy with his hand on the ground. Thanks to Fresno's focus on the RB and a great block by the H-back, the pulling guard actually ends up not having to block anybody while Wilson scampers for a first down.

Video:

Comments

mGrowOld

September 17th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^

"Hurry it up or grind it out? Very much hurry it up. Utah routinely got snaps off with 20+ seconds remaining on the play clock against Fresno State, and the only huddles occurred during timeouts. They're close to Indiana fast."

Whew that's a relief.  If there's one thing that Michigan has historically been able to stop dead in its tracks it's a high-tempo, spread offense that's for sure.

FWIW I still think we win by two TDs but it's gonna be something like 40-27.

alum96

September 17th, 2014 at 3:39 PM ^

Going to be a tough one.  In terms of similar opponents - we saw what K State did with nothing but just 1 premier WR.  Maryland will be similar with 2 very good WRs. (Maryland lacks a running game however, while Utah has an ok one)

But Utah plays at Indiana tempo not KState or Maryland.  And Indiana scored a bunch on us last year. 

DEs simply need to get home in this game and not just get close.  QB seems error prone based on last year but has completely cleaned it up thru 2 games.  You can say "baby seals" but its still 0 INTs thru 2 games.

If Taylor and Wilson are not out there that is 50% of the starting DBs.  Not the team you want to be facing with that issue.  If out we are relying on a FR and a SO to shut down 2 upperclassmen WRs.  And Hill, Thomas, Clark getting their first look at an up tempo spread with live bullets.

This has the makings of a shootout from best I can tell on paper as both teams have holes in the defense to exploit.

Space Coyote

September 17th, 2014 at 3:38 PM ^

Then I actually think this is a good match-up for Michigan. Since Mattison's arrival, where Michigan has struggled hasn't been against spread to run teams for the most part. Nebraska, Northwestern, those types of offenses are very similar to what Utah runs. With how the DL has performed, that should free up the LBs to play sound football rather than get caught up, and in a Cover 4, you can also get the safeties filling down naturally to help out.

On top of that, if Utah really isn't very efficient passing the ball as claimed, then some of the communication and coverage issues Michigan has displayed running Cover 4 in the past can be mitigated. Utah doesn't run some of the things that Oregon runs to catch defenses in tricky post-snap confusion. I think despite the up-tempo, that this is actually a pretty good match-up in favor of the Michigan defense.

alum96

September 17th, 2014 at 3:50 PM ^

Nebraska seems more run oriented (rightfully so) with a combo of Tommy Armstrong + Abdullah, than Utah will be.  Nebraska has Kenny Bell but again, asking Tommy Armstrong to win you a game via the air doesn't seem like a good combination to win a lot of games.  And I didnt see any NFL talent on that Northwestern offense last year.  A few of those Indiana WRs actually got drafted last year on the other hand.  And Utah seems to be coming in at pace more like Indiana rather than Nebraska or Northwestern even if offense style might be more conventional.

I'm more of a Jimmy and Joe's guy over X's and O's.  You put Dres Anderson, Jeremy Gallon, or Tyler Lockett in any system they are going to succeed if the QB delivers the ball.

Space Coyote

September 17th, 2014 at 3:57 PM ^

Seems favorable for Michigan. Again, the DL being able to keep LBs clean is huge in this case. It means Michigan can be gap sound with their front 7 and play Cover 4 behind it. By doing that, you don't expose the CBs on tiny little islands all the time, thus mitigating some of the concern on the outside, but you also have quasi-9 in the box. 

Even with T-Mart, also a limited passer but could duck passes to open receivers that were athletic, Michigan has stacked up well against these sorts of spread to run teams, mostly because the DL has been pretty good. I think from both an X's and O's and Jimmy's and Joe's stand point, this match-up favors Michigan.

That's not to say Michigan will shut them down, but I do think it favors Michigan over a nominal opponent.

alum96

September 17th, 2014 at 4:04 PM ^

Ok with that said assuming a normal game with say 1 UM turnover at the 50 yard line how much would you expect Utah to score? Less than 28?  With the advantages you are noting. We gave up 47 to Indiana (different year I know) and 21 to Notre Dame in the first half before the turnovers showed up.  I don't want to read in between your lines but your comments would indicate a game where UM holds Utah to 20-23.  I'd consider that a best case scenario.

 

Space Coyote

September 17th, 2014 at 4:10 PM ^

I know that's kind of a cop-out, but there are so many variables. Does someone blow an assignment? Does the offense commit a turnover? Does the offense control the ball? Special teams miscue? Etc. I know you're kind of narrowing the variables with what you said, but I just don't like making predictions.

MGoClimb

September 17th, 2014 at 3:46 PM ^

This will be a very good test for our defense. If the run defense is as good as advertised so far, this could play to our advantage. Getting pressure on Wilson, forcing him to make bad throws, and stopping the run will be essential.

It will also be interesting to see how the defense performs after the Indiana game. Personally, I think they're going to score, but I expected Nebraska's offense to score last season and the Michigan defense gave them nothing.

Hugh White

September 17th, 2014 at 3:52 PM ^

Announcer:  "Wilson again, fakes the hand-off..."

?

It seems pretty clear that this was a true option/read and not a foregone conclusion that the Q would keep after having "faked" the hand-off.  Am I wrong to gripe?

MGoClimb

September 17th, 2014 at 4:00 PM ^

In 2013, Indiana was ranked second in the country at 3.45 plays per minute of possession (ppm). Utah was ranked 45th at 2.83 ppm.

Michigan was 95th at 2.51 ppm.

maize-blue

September 17th, 2014 at 4:02 PM ^

I think the ND game highlighted some areas that the defense may have problems in. I have faith that Mattison and the other defensive coaches have been able see these things, make scheme adjustments and work on the things that need it. I’d expect the defense and the team as a whole to be pretty motivated for this one. If I were the coaches I’d show them the 31-0 score over and over.

I know that from my wanderings around the various Utah sites that a majority of that fan base is very confident of a victory. It’s the kind of tone that reminds me of the one we had after the App. State game and going into ND.

 

 

 

alum96

September 17th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^

Well if you are Utah fan you've just pasted the equivalent of Miami of OH and App State with your starters on offense spinning both those bad squads into oblivion.  And you havent played anyone with a heartbeat.

So if UM beat App State 55-14 (more or less what we did) and did the same to Miami OH, and didnt play Notre Dame, and then saw Utah lose to UCLA 31-0 on national TV - that would be the equivalent of what they saw. 

We can sit here and micro analyze the ND game and explain everything away but all a national TV audience saw was 2 similar programs play and one put up 31 pts and the other 0.  Piggy backing on the previous 6 years of Michigan football + the current disaster that is the perception of Big 10 football I think it is understandable why they'd be positive on their chances, right or wrong.

Monocle Smile

September 17th, 2014 at 4:04 PM ^

The matchup between Clark and that left tackle should be interesting.

Henry could have a big day, given that the right side of that line is the weaker part.

I almost want Lewis following Anderson around, even though we don't play defense like that.

alum96

September 17th, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^

It will be curious who is tasked with Anderson.  Ace has Blake vs Anderson.  Like you I'd rather see Lewis or Peppers try it.  But yes we dont have CBs follow around WRs per the scheme so  I guess maybe the next interesting question is which DB Utah targets i.e. which side of the field they line up Anderson most of the game.

BradP

September 17th, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^

Are you sure about the spread-to-run?

Utah brought in Dave Christensen as their OC this year.  He was the HC at Wyoming for the last few years, but before that he was the OC at Missouri for almost a decade.

He coached guys like Brad Smith and Chase Daniel, and his offenses were consistently towards the top in tempo, total yardage and passing yardage.

alum96

September 17th, 2014 at 4:14 PM ^

I dont think we can take too much out of the formations or run/pass tendency they are using in their first 2 games.  When we play baby seals we always say "vanilla offense" "nothing exotic" "don't show ABC real opponent what we really want to do".   I doubt they went into any serious tendencies against those 2 types of opponents.  And I think UM's run defense is going to cause them to be pass oriented even if for some reason they want to be more run oriented.

utahfan

September 17th, 2014 at 8:13 PM ^

First off, I would like to say that this is by far the best fan site that I have ever come across. Your breakdowns are amazing and I only wish that Utah had a fan that was capable of putting together a site like this.

As far as the confidence of Utah fans, I haven't heard anybody state that we will win comfortably, although I'm sure that there are some out there. Some believe that Utah will win. But most simply recognize that Utah has the ability to win. Most Utah fans aren't overly confident, but they believe we have a chance, which I'm sure most of you would admit that Utah has a good chance of winning. 

In my opinion, this game will come down to turnovers. I know that seems obvious, because many games do come down to turnovers, but Michigan seems to have a problem with turning the ball over so far this year and Utah has only forced 1 turnover (Really, it wasn't even forced, it was a fumble recovery of a bad snap. That happened during the bit of the broadcast that cut out.) We're hopeful that we can generate turnovers, but wouldn't be surprised if we don't.

It should be an exciting game and I can't wait for it. Like many Utah fans, we are excited to play "a team with a heartbeat" as one of you put it. As exciting as our offense has been the first two games, it's hard to get excited or be confident in it until Utah plays a real team. Hopefully we'll be cheering after Saturday.

Boom Goes the …

September 17th, 2014 at 10:06 PM ^

and Henry/Godin/Wormley will be keys to stopping their run game.  Have held up great so far in the first 3 games- we need that again Saturday being shorthanded in the secondary.  I think if we get them in 2nd and 8 and 9 often, that is how you can counter their tempo.  If they constantly get in 2nd and 3 or 4, they can have their entire offense at their disposal and can really gash us.  And we need to generate 2-3 turnovers.  Should be a good one