well, yeah, he would be nice to have right now [Fuller]

The Big Ten boasts some elite defensive lines, and this week's opponent, Penn State, has a group that's up there with any of them. The fearsome line combined with defensive coordinator Bob Shoop's aggressive blitz schemes has produced the best pass rush in the country, and that was on full display two weeks ago against Northwestern, when they came away with six sacks (PSU was on a bye last week).

Despite being down their starting quarterback for most of the game, however, Northwestern managed to expose some flaws in the PSU defense, and they're flaws Michigan has the potential to exploit.

Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:

Penn State lost safety Jordan Lucas to an undiscosed injury early in the Northwestern game; all-conference-quality LB Nyeem Wartman-White has been out all season, which has really hurt PSU's LB play.

Base Set? 4-3 multiple. PSU should be in an under front for much of the game against Michigan's heavier sets; they'll also spend plenty of snaps in an over front and will often shade SLB Brandon Bell over the slot receiver in three-wide sets.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Man or zone coverage? PSU runs a lot of Cover 2. They weren't great at it in this game. When the pass rush wasn't hitting home—which, admittedly, was a rare occasion—there were serious holes in coverage. The most common soft spot was up the seam, which Northwestern from a few different spots. Here's TE Garrett Dickerson getting a big chunk after splitting into the slot

The very next play, Dickerson lined up as an in-line TE, ran right up the seam again, and dropped a pass that was quite open:

Later, Northwestern put the game's first points on the board when WR Christian Jones did the same thing from the slot:

Jake Butt and AJ Williams could both make a significant impact, especially since PSU also struggled to defend the other Cover 2 soft spot—the sideline between the safety in a deep half and the corner playing the flat. Unfortunately for Northwestern, starting QB Clayton Thorson got hurt late in the first quarter, and backup Zack Oliver was erratic. He missed this throw by a good five yards:

There were a couple others like that. Pressure played a factor, but the Wildcats left yards on the field, and even Sad Ghost Rudock is generally more accurate than Oliver.

Pressure: GERG or Greg? Shoop is as blitz-happy as any defensive coordinator Michigan has faced this year. He prefers zone blitzes, usually involving Bell:

Shoop varies the coverage and pressure enough that PSU can generate a lot of heat without devoting too many rushers. Here's a third-and-five with three down linemen; Shoop has Carl Nassib, PSU's best pass-rusher, drop into coverage, as does the other DE, and Northwestern still can't pick up the four defenders coming after Oliver:

That doesn't mean Shoop won't bring a heavy rush; on a late third-and-long with PSU clinging to a one-point lead, a zero blitz (seven rushers, man coverage behind it) forced a quick incompletion and a punt. Michigan's linemen and any RBs/FBs/TEs providing blocking help are going to need to be on top of their game when it comes to identifing and picking up the rush.

Dangerman: There are degrees of dangermen; in Penn State's case, NT Austin Johnson and DT Anthony Zettel are top-tier dangermen. Each is great on their own; in concert they're terrifying. The line of scrimmage isn't really where the ball is placed, it's where they decide to set it.

Northwestern's early attempts at inside zone failed miserably because blocking those guys one-on-one, even after a chip, is begging for a TFL.

Zettel's tree-tacklin' strength is quite applicable to the football field. Scroll back up the page and watch what he does to his blocker on the sack by Bell. Yeah. A (legal) combo hit by him and Carl Nassib knocked Thornson out of the game, as well.

Johnson had even more of an impact. He had eight solo tackles in this game, stuffing the rare inside runs—Northwestern quickly learned not to try those—and going sideline-to-sideline to make plays. This is a 330-pound nose tackle:

He's Supersized Ryan Glasgow. That wasn't the only tackle Johnson made well outside the hashes. Both tackles also contribute heavily to the pass rush. It's difficult to overstate their importance to this defense; their ability to blow up and finish plays on their own covers up some serious deficiencies, especially in the linebacker play.

Carl Nassib, who's come out of nowhere for a possible All-American season, didn't have a great outing in this game, but still looked dangerous. He has a tendency to get too far upfield against the run, which Northwestern exploited by running power right at him. Nassib is really explosive, however, and if he can't get the QB himself he can usually force a step-up into pressure. When Northwestern tried a half-roll away from Nassib and blocked him with only a tight end, this happened:

Oliver fumbled, and while Northwestern recovered, that was a third-down play that killed an important drive.

Finally, Brandon Bell looked good as a blitzer; he does a nice job of shooting the available gap.

OVERVIEW

It's all about overcoming Penn State's defensive line. Northwestern struggled early as they tried to run their normal inside zone stuff against a line that's so difficult to move off the ball. They started breaking big plays in the run game—and eventually posted 6.3 YPC on 41 rushes with sacks removed—by running power to counter Shoop's blitzes. Here the Wildcats used a late shift to get H-Back Dan Vitale head-up on a blitzer to spring Justin Jackson for a big gain:

They set up a short touchdown later in the same drive with another power to the short side:

A common thread: Penn State's linebackers are far from the normal Nittany Lion standard. They're hesitant, eat a ton of blocks they can't disengage from, and take some poor angles to the ball. They also struggled getting depth in their zone drops and blew some coverages. Even on their best play—a pick by MIKE Jason Cabinda when Oliver forced a throw up the seam—there was a bust underneath that should've resulted in an easy first down and more:

The pass rush is so overwhelming, though, that beating this Penn State defense requires split-second decisions, often under heavy duress, and it can be tough to pick on—or even notice—the holes in the defense. Johnson and Zettel can both handle a huge snap load, and while their backups aren't nearly as disruptive they're both 300-pounders with plenty of experience. I didn't think Nassib's backup, Evan Schwan, had a great game; he lost contain a couple times and was handled in the run game.

In fact, after I initially though Michigan would have to lean heavily on the pass to win this game, Northwestern's growing success with power eventually had me believing the opposite. If they can simply seal off the playside DT—not always that simple, of course—there's usually room on the edge, and the linebackers aren't good at closing space and making tackles in those gaps.

If Rudock gets time, there should be openings downfield, especially in those soft spots in the Cover 2. Penn State will miss Lucas; safeties Malik Golden and Marcus Allen were a step slow closing on passes in their zones, and both took some questionable angles on long Northwestern runs. I noted Allen took one particularly bad angle on a quick receiver screen that netted a first down, which seems relevant to our interests. (Lucas actually got picked on in coverage before he exited; not sure if he was hurt already.)

The corners weren't tested a ton; they usually had the flats well-covered, though the openings behind them were sometimes the product of them failing to sink back when there wasn't anyone to defend in the flat. Trevor Williams looked superior to Grant Haley, who got picked on late. Neither looked like a star, but with only a handful of throws going at them it wasn't easy to evaluate.

This game will come down to Michigan's ability to deal with PSU's blitzes in both facets. Northwestern's success running power is a promising sign, especially since they were down their starting QB and two starting O-linemen for much of the game; they repeated caught PSU in blitzes and got solid gains out of it; that seems replicable by Michigan as long as Johnson and Zettel aren't overwhelming the interior blockers. Dealing with the pass rush will be more difficult; I'm expecting big plays from both sides, and it might come down to how much big plays from M's tight ends can offset the inevitable drive-killing sack or three.