Fee Fi Foe Film: Ohio State Offense Comment Count

Seth

[Not the usual author alert: Ace is covering Beilein's Bahamas tourney so I get to preview Urban Meyer's football team. That sounded way more fair when I agreed to it.]

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Finding a good game to preview Ohio State is like, well, finding a good game this year to judge Ohio State. They didn't play a ranked team until last Saturday, and that was played under a barrage of rain and wind and game planning so awful David's mom was asking why they aren't passing. I also wanted to find a game that Barrett played extensively, which left us with just Hawaii, NIU, Rutgers and Illinois.

So: Illinois, which is 16th in defensive S&P (and has a pro-style QB in Wes Lunt). The Illini brought a lot of stunts and scrape exchange blitzes meant to mess with Ohio State's zone read game. This worked sometimes—Bill Cubit is a much better football coach than the guy he was working for—but as often as not they just couldn't close before the Ezekiel Elliott jetted through. Like so many other Big Ten opponents Ohio State has been #blessed to play between odd-year Spartans, the Fighting Illini were finally ground down by an effective modern spread machine.

Personnel: This chart does not lie:

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click to big

That's a lot of star power, but most of it's used as little more than a diversion for good ol' five yards and a cloud of bitchy 5-stars.

As much as I love these guys on Twitter, once you see these atrocities, this utter abomination on the field, you too will be screaming for Tim Beck to be shipped back to the Big Ten West cornfields. Ladies and gentlemen, prepare to hate the spread.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown]

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid: Spread. Usually the personnel is QB, RB, TE, H-back, 2WR but then they'll line up in four- and five-wide as often as not. The RB and H and TE will all spend time in the backfield or the slot to create different looks. Formations were 80% from the gun, and the rest from the Pistol; the only time they went under center was a QB sneak.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: There was a lot more inside zone this year than last; I'd say they were about 40-60 zone to MANBALL in this game, and three quarters of the man-blocking were ISOs or QB Power, which is a misnomer because it's an Isolation play. Pulling guards trapped as or more often than they pulled into a hole. They also used the tight end Vannett as an H in motion while Braxton and the nominal H- (slot) receivers stayed in the slot. Blocks could come from anywhere and everywhere, except Braxton Miller, who puts his arms in the air and stops running when the play isn't near him.

Over a third of their plays were read options, and all of the play-action or regular handoffs had some read action.

Hurry it up or grind it out? Like my grandpa used to say about the Army, it's a lot of hurry up and wait. Ohio State will tempo to the line then pick a play, then check into another play, then clap when a snap is imminent. They had a couple drives where they got good matchups and locked them on the field. They also used most of the clock to get aligned, usually snapping with 10 or 11 seconds left.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): J.T. Barrett is an 8 or 9. I'm not familiar enough with the scale, but his legs are his main weapon and after Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State's favorite offensive tool. This is one of their base plays now:

(more on Elliott as lead blocker later)

Barrett also took off on a 4th and 11 for a 16-yard scramble. He doesn't have blinding speed but he's athletic, can fit in small holes, and can grind out 2 yards after contact with regularity. By the way Cardale Jones is a human tank. Barrett's the bigger run threat unless the situation calls for a runaway train.

Dangerman:

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Ladies: write your local NCAA person and tell them you want Zeke's abs freed. [ElevenWarriors]

This is gonna be most of the team so let's focus on one guy and hit the rest in the overview. This week I had to add a new level beyond "dangerman" to the chart for Ezekiel Elliott. From now on, a "Shield" on my chart is a guy who's in the running for the Heisman or should be, or is at least likely to be the first of his kind off the board in the next draft. They are players whose skills will shape the dynamic of the entire game, not just their matchups. Part of this is I've been trying to think of a way to differentiate Jourdan Lewis from, say, Mo Hurst. I actually considered giving even more stars out than what you see above.

That I created a new distinction to tell you how good Elliott is says a thing. You should be aware by now that he's the most dangerous edge weapon in college football. In this game he ran outside the tackles just three times, and never with the ball. That's because an underrated part of his game is he's a fantastic blocker. I don't mean pass blocker; usually if Ohio State's passing they have Elliott leaking into the flat because you have to react to that.

I mean lead blocker:

Some of Ohio State's most effective plays were that "QB Power" Michigan ran as its  base offense in 2010. Elliott opened those up by going first and crushing dudes. This one uses zone stretch blocking, i.e. the stuff Michigan's been having trouble with since Glasgow went down. Now add a blocker on the edge to that.

He's also, you know, a really good running back between the tackles. This is a typical Ohio State zone read play:

Zook Factor: Meyer punted on 4th and 1 from the OSU 44 and OSU 41. Cameron Johnson, Ohio State's Aussie punter, put those on the 10 and the 16 respectively. Is it still Zooking if you have an Aussie?

HenneChart (what these mean): Barrett ain't bad, but for a team that runs as much as Ohio State I was surprised how often he had to make good throws. A big chunk of this was that two-minute drill. I say all of that because this is a very high DSR:

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
Illinois 4 9 (2)   2     1 7 1 88%

However note the "PR" metric. Most of those were guys coming off the right side.

The right tackle, Farris, is a problem. Ohio State seems to be all too aware and unable to do much about it. Other than Cardale Jones forgetting how to pass, that's been this season's biggest revelation. On the interception he had a receiver breaking wide open on a fade to the end zone but his arm got grabbed at the last second by a speed rushing LE. Another time he had a pass batted by a guy coming inside of Farris. It is a weird kryptonite given all the talent the Buckeyes have everywhere else. Or not because OL is where stars matter the least.

One thing OSU's been doing to mitigate the turnstile at tackle is to get Barrett rolling away from that side. This cuts down his options and forces more pressure problems. Ross Fulton saw a lot more of this in a partially paywalled article for Buckeygrove:

Rolling Barrett left was an immediate red flag. This suggests Meyer's staff determined that right tackle Chase Farris - who has struggled all season in pass protection - could not handle Michigan State's defensive front.

But rolling out left has significant limitations. It cuts the field in half. It prevents throwing deep or between the hash marks. It eliminates play action. And it requires a right-handed quarterback to turn his shoulders and set his feet.

Barrett never looked comfortable with movement passing. Rather than setting his feet and turning his shoulders inside the tackle he drifted towards the sideline - leading to inaccuracy or negative plays. He was frequently tentative. For instance, below he had three potential open receivers - Michael Thomas on a curl, Nick Vannett on a sit-down route, and Curtis Samuel coming open on a wheel.

There's much more after the jump. In fact if you have a Rivals subscription I don't know why you're reading me right now. Go read Ross.

Another thing I saw a lot of in this game was the dreaded pass short of the sticks. If you're looking for hidden reasons that Ohio State's offense seems so streaky, it's that if you get them in 3rd and 8 they're liable to pass it 6 yards. The slots are highly athletic, but even they can't get much when they're digging out comebacks short of the sticks.

OVERVIEW

This play is exactly what we thought the Ohio State 2015 offense would be. On 2nd and short they'll use tempo to lock your backups on the field, run a former Heisman candidate quarterback out to the slot, line up in a pistol, fake like they're making a Rich Rod zone read with a bubble screen run/pass option, then run Lloyd Carr's favorite play of 1996. That gets 16 yards because they have a Heisman candidate at running back.

I know people are going to say this is rivalry bias talking, but Ohio State's offense is best described as the most vile and depraved thing ever conceived by humanity. Rich Rod and Chip Kelly put athletes in space to make great plays; Urban Meyer puts great athletes in space to keep your defenders away from his Woody Hayes death march.

That march often stalls out before it can rev. The drive chart from this game splits neatly into short ones and long ones:

Couldn't get the darn thing started:

  • Four three-and-outs and a five-and-out.
  • Barrett fumbles on his own 32 after a good Elliott run

If this took any longer it would feature hobbits:

  • TD drives of 9 and 11 plays
  • Drives of 11, 9, and 10 plays that ended in turnovers (missed FG from the 7, a fumble, and an interception).
  • a 7-play two-minute drill at the end of the half (TD)
  • Cardale Jones drive in garbage time (not charted)

Oh right we have athletes:

  • Let's pass it to Thomas three times (49 yards, TD)

And one drive that started inside the Illini 10 after a muffed punt; Elliott scored on the first play. They left a lot of points on the field, including six #BigTenRefs took away in a bad goal line review. But this is still an offense that needs to stay ahead of the chains. They're good at doing so, and will throw out every trick in the book to make that happen. And yet more than any offense of Bo or his immediate successors, you really feel like they're hauling dirt with a Ferrari.

Like a vintage Urban outfit, they're going to gun all day and run all day. The chart removes the two minute drill and three goal line or 3rd and short situations:

Formations Run/RPO Pass PA     Wideouts Snaps     Down Run Pass PA
Gun 32 9 2 Heavy   - 1st 20 2 5
Pistol 4 3 5 2 16 2nd 11 6 2
  3 29 3rd/4th 5 4   -
4 5  
5 5

(RPO = run/pass option, which I filed under run since they always were.)

The H- position is weirdly de-emphasized this year despite being deeper than ever. Braxton Miller, Jalin Marshall (who's the #2 receiver but takes on H jobs in 2-wide sets), and Curtis Samuel mostly set up to block nobody on a belly plays, waved their hands on run-pass option screens that were never open for the bubble, or ran rub routes to get Thomas open before a DL beat the RT and Barrett had to do a pressure thing.

Ohio State used their move TE, Vannett, in lots of ways. Lining him up as a slot receiver, motioning like an H, or like above, right in front of the RB in a kind of shotgun I-formation.

When they threw, the clearly #1 target was Michael Thomas, who's got Avant size and Avant hands plus one more gear below the waist. The second drive was all him: a Hackenberg-to-Godwin-like screamer up the seam, a fade that might have connected but the CB had to hold like crazy, and then a TD that was badly thrown but yoinked away when the same corner didn't get his head around:

Aaron Burbridge is a more frequently used target, but Thomas has a good claim to be the most dangerous of receivers Michigan has faced this year.

The slick Jalin Marshall is also going to be a hassle outside for our longish CBs. I wonder if Michigan will try putting Clark on Thomas to get Lewis on Marshall; if ever there was a time for a big, lanky, athletic cornerback to erase a big, lanky, athletic receiver, this is it.

Peppers is almost certainly going to be spending the day with Braxton Miller. I tracked when and where they put him—of the 67 snaps Miller was out for 35 of them. Two were as a superback (2nd running back) and the rest were at slot/H. He was barely used. There was one play that might have been setting up a run and throw but Illinois burst through and after a lot of corralling, took him down for a six-yard loss. You've seen enough of Braxton Miller to know what he is, and thank the stars he isn't getting the ball 67 times a game anymore.

As for the OL, Decker is a wall at left tackle and Elflein made most of the blocks that sprung Elliott downfield. Price and Boren are just guys. As discussed, Farris is a problem.

I had to cap this formation:

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That was a designed QB draw that got to the 50. Braxton Miller was lined up at the bottom in case you're wondering if they were maybe planning to run the Transcontinental.

I'm less concerned now than I was when we were writing the HTTV preview about Michigan's chances of matching up with this, and back then I thought we'd have up to three and at least one actual nose tackle available. The OL is old enough to run whatever you're not good at, and until last week I'd say they're savvy enough to know what that is.

I'm gonna guess that MSU game was an overreaction to the weather, and perhaps some non-football issues, that demanded Meyer leave Barrett out there and keep trying to bash their way through MSU's run defense. But the Illinois game showed they're going to run unless they don't have to, and look to take what's available rather than test your grip on what you're holding. That helps Michigan, whose defense prefers to stay in its solid vanilla thing rather than overreact to whatever the opponent's featuring.

The big test will be whether that interior DL can hold up while Michigan matches talent on talent everywhere else. It wasn't so long ago these same dudes were taking a confetti shower and holding up newspapers of themselves holding up newspapers, and virtually all of them were coming back. Now it seems Tom Herman not coming back was a bigger deal that we thought, while Jim Harbaugh coming back was quite the big deal indeed. I'm not giving Michigan the edge, but we've certainly got a Game.

Comments

Boom Goes the …

November 25th, 2015 at 6:35 PM ^

if he can hold the point of attack and make some plays, forcing osu into 3rd and long is a win for our D.  Limit Elliott to 100 on the ground would also be a huge win.  If we do both, Ithink the offense can sustain enough to win a tight one in the 20s

Urban Warfare

November 25th, 2015 at 9:24 PM ^

The majority of Braxton's touches are with him at QB and the defense rushing 11 because it's an obvious draw.  Despite that, he's averaging over 6 yards per carry.  He's got good hands, but he's rarely put in a position to use them.  He's another victim of Tim Beck's incompetence.

DealerCamel

November 25th, 2015 at 6:42 PM ^

They have a hell of a lot of firepower on that team.  I think this weekend is when the live up to that potential, and click.  Our offense will too.

Don't know who'll win, but it'll be a lot of fun.

MotownGoBlue

November 25th, 2015 at 7:45 PM ^

He's thrown one pass all year for 3 yards (seems his shoulder is still jacked up).

His routes are not crisp, his hands average, and often looks like he has trouble locating the ball.

He's still big and can run but there's no element of surprise when he does.

Hopefully it wasn't all a smokescreen for The Game (kinda like when you found out the Death Star was fully armed and operational, in Jedi).

AnthonyThomas

November 25th, 2015 at 7:01 PM ^

They will open up the proverbial Ferrari for this game.

Also, UM really doesn't have someone who can exploit Farris, unfortunately. If Barrett and Zeke get to the linebackers consistently, Michigan is in trouble. Here's to Henry, Hurst, Wormley, and Taco matching or exceeding their previous great performances. 

The Geek

November 25th, 2015 at 7:26 PM ^

I can't wait until Peppers earns the coveted "Heisman" Shield.

On another note, I wore my 21 Desmon Howard jersey to work today to the ire of 3 OSU alum. They were talking a much different 'game' a few weeks ago.

The talk of NC has shifted to genuine fear. Go Blue! Michigan 42 Ohio State 24!

<it's happening.gif>

edit: crop of urban meyer eating pizza is classic

 

Walter Sobchak

November 25th, 2015 at 8:29 PM ^

Bah, what a bunch of ninnies. This team is about to get crucified. They are coming in here with their heads down. I pity their souls.

Walter Sobchak

November 25th, 2015 at 8:29 PM ^

Bah, what a bunch of ninnies. This team is about to get crucified. They are coming in here with their heads down. I pity their souls.

hazardc

November 25th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^

 

2011 Ann Arbor   UM 40 34
11/22/2012 Columbus     OSU 21 26      
11/30/2013 Ann Arbor     OSU 41 42      
11/29/2014 Columbus     OSU 28 42

 

 

These last three games have been entirely too close... Last year Elliot stepped up immediately  after Barrett was injured, while the game was still really close, and saved the day for OSU. 

 

I'm still cringing over that effort Gardner made on the broken foot... only to lose on the 2pt..... I still think he should have been given the opportunity to take it in -- that kid was on a MISSION. 

 

 

Anyways, when you really look at it... last few years have been "good games" and still heartbreaking. 1 point? 4 points? 

Durham Blue

November 25th, 2015 at 9:42 PM ^

We gonna thump OSU this year. There will be about 15 years of pent up frustration coming down on the Buckeyes. Plus Harbaugh rage. Scarlet and grey will be smattered all over the Michigan Stadium turf. Then PSU will finish the job. Take notice, Iowa.

caguab

November 25th, 2015 at 11:56 PM ^

I think you need to force OSU to throw. MSU had the right idea and I bet you their defensive strategy to play close to the line wasn't dependent on the weather.  For M to win, it must limit their running.  JT will not win the game against us if he has to throw on more than 60% of the plays.

 I think you spy JT all game, and have the other linebacker cue on Zeke. I would prefer Peppers play in the box (as a linebacker/safety) and focus on Zeke as well.  I would put Thomas on Braxton with an emphasis on jamming at the line.  OSU is 100th in the nation on passing and I don't think they will be able to beat us if we shut down their run game.  They also show a tendency to panic when you do shut their run game down.  

meeeechigan78

November 26th, 2015 at 4:39 AM ^

Jim needs to beat the brakes off those mouthbreathers. Zeke trashes the coaching staff and u know Urban Liar will run this dude prob 25-30 times like he should've done agst msu. Jim would bench Zeke....on the other hand, no Wolverine would ever trash any of our coaches like that, it's simply not done here.

I respect how Jim kneeled to end the psu game. But these ***** deserve a beating. I want bad intentions on that field. I want a crisp hard handshake from Jim. And after he beats osu....I'll be ok if he does urban like he did Jim Schwartz. Matter of fact, hit him in the urban even harder, he's got it comin'

Jevablue

November 26th, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^

If you look at how OSU has practically sleep walked its way through this season and then gets gut punched by its first ranked opponent, you almost have to wonder about Meyer.  With all of that talent (on paper) they really have not achieved much domination even against a soft schedule and a badly wounded sparty.

Something has been missing from that team all year,  I wonder if is just plain ol' physicality? whatever it is, I trust Harbs has a plan to get a boot on their throat before they find it. Who knows? Meantime, amongst us mortals, loading the box seems like a smart thing.

GO BLUE