Coker going HAM over all doesn't seem unreasonable. Hopefully we can limit him somewhat and force Vandenberg to make sloppy throws.
chance of bowl: 13.6%
Last week, I was really getting worried about what to do for this week's FFFF, as the only working Iowa torrent I could find was from their 13-3 loss to Penn State, and they were slated to play Minnesota in the week leading up to the Michigan game. There's no possible way that any game film against Minnesota would be useful, due to the inevitable bludgeoning as GopherQuest forged on, and... wait, what?
This requires further investigation. To the breakdown! (This week, breakdown sadly comes sans video, as my video converter apparently couldn't handle the end of GopherQuest and committed suicide before turning my uneditable .mkv file into a nice, iMovie-compatible .mp4—prepare for lots of screencaps. If you want to see larger versions of the photos, I've uploaded them to my Flickr account.)
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Pro-style. Iowa spends much of their time in one-back and I-form, and usually goes to the gun only in obvious passing situations.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? MANBALL, which is pretty effective thanks to man-child running back Marcus Coker (more on him later).
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): James Vandenberg is relatively statuesque, though he has the ability—if given a fair amount of space—to escape the pocket and pick up a first down. It still takes a while. I'll give him a 3.
Dangerman: Marvin McNutt (#7) is arguably the best receiver in the conference, but I'm more worried about Coker (#34), who runs like a bigger, healthier Brandon Minor.
OVERVIEW: Iowa has a reputation for being very vanilla on defense (and they are), but that reputation easily carries over to the offense as well. Even when the Hawkeyes didn't have a great running game—while also boasting two outstanding receivers and a senior quarterback—they looked to ram the ball down your throat, and now with a first-year starter at QB, no Darrell Johnson-Koulianos, and Coker in the backfield, it's all about the run. On most first downs (and second, for that matter), they'll go under center and smash Coker up the middle, and he'll do this to great effect—Coker averages 5.3 yards per carry this year and has nearly eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark already. You'll see him a lot, as Coker has 182 carries this season while no other Hawkeye running back has more than 18—depth is a huge issue there.
Vandenberg is your stereotypical big pocket passer—the Chad Henne comparisons are accurate in terms of style, at least—and he has a very strong arm and solid accuracy. He has issues reading defenses, however, and resorts to a surprising amount of dink-and-dunk throws unless the Hawkeyes are running play-action—most of his big throws downfield came after a run fake, and he was quick to check down when there was even a hint of pressure. In order to help Vandenberg with his pre-snap reads, Iowa will motion an H-back or wide receiver on what seemed to be around half of their snaps, and if Vandenberg doesn't like what he sees from there, he'll usually check down into a run play or short pass.
PLAY BREAKDOWN: While Iowa tends to be pretty predictable, their big plays tend to come when they break tendencies. On the play screencapped below, the Hawkeyes lined up in the gun with three wideouts and an H-back, who motioned to a spot two yards in front of Coker. While Iowa mostly runs from under center, they'd shown this look before and handed it up the gut to Coker. On this play, however, they'd fake the dive and send Marvin McNutt—lined up in the slot—right up the seam. Let's just say he found some space:
This would be a 26-yard completion once the Gopher safeties finally dragged down McNutt. The play-action made it easy for Vandenberg to set up and immediately go to his first read—he's hesitant to throw downfield if the receiver isn't McNutt and there's no play fake to suck in the defense. In another example of Iowa breaking tendency, they lined up in a one-back set with the H-back going in motion—the same look they showed on at least a dozen of Coker's carries—then faked the dive and ran a reverse to McNutt, who had a ton of space and picked up 19 yards. The key to stopping this offense, besides doing whatever possible to slow down Coker, is to not get lulled to sleep.
As stated earlier, Vandenberg does have issues with his pre-snap reads, often appearing to choose which receiver he'll throw to before the snap (he locks on to McNutt often, and though this isn't a terrible idea given his ability, there were multiple passes into double coverage against Minnesota). When he sees a blitz coming, he'll get the ball out quickly, usually on a checkdown to the running back or a quick hitch to one of his receivers. This usually keeps him out of trouble, as evidenced by his lack of turnovers—he's thrown just four interceptions and the Hawkeyes are 11th in the country with just nine total giveaways.
Vandenberg doesn't always see the blitz, however, and that's when problems arise—on the play pictured below, the corner from the top of the screen snuck down to the line just before the snap, Vandenberg didn't see him, and the corner tore off the edge as the play rolled slightly away from him. The offensive line was in no position to pick up the blitz (and while they were outnumbered and this play was doomed, they didn't do Vandenberg any favors by having two guys not block anyone), and BRACE FOR CONTACT:
Would you be surprised if I told you Vandenberg fumbled on the play? Because you shouldn't be. Expect Greg Mattison to dial up a lot of zone blitzes in the hope that he'll confuse Vandenberg and get some free hitters on the blind side. Iowa's line managed to allow three sacks to the Gophers, who had all of five on the season heading into the game, so there will be opportunities to hit the quarterback and force some turnovers.
Base Set? 4-3. Iowa stays in their base set almost exclusively, unless facing a four-receiver spread.
Man or zone coverage? Defensive coordinator Norm Parker's affinity for the cover 2 zone—on practically every play—is well documented. The Hawkeyes will play zone until you find several ways to beat it, and then they'll play zone a little more just to make sure that wasn't a fluke, and even if it wasn't they'll keep doing it anyway because, dammit, that's how it's done at Iowa.
Pressure: GERG or Greg? In other words, rush three or bring a bunch of blitzes? Iowa would make GERG proud, as they almost never brought any extra pressure outside of rushing their four defensive linemen. They also barely got any pressure, and though one could chalk that up to Iowa ensuring they kept contain on MarQueis Gray, that's not going to change against Denard Robinson.
Dangerman: DE Broderick Binns (#91) got all the preseason hype, but he's been disappointing and had no impact against the Gophers, which can't be a good sign. I liked what I saw from weakside linebacker Christian Kirksey, who's a bit undersized at 6'2", 215, but always seems to end up around the football and is also the best Iowa linebacker in coverage.
OVERVIEW: Have I mentioned that Iowa likes to run the cover 2? That's really all they do, and it's just a matter of beating it. Handy cover 2 diagram, just mentally insert "weakside linebacker" in place of "nickel back":
There are weaknesses, of course, and Minnesota managed to exploit the two major ones when they passed the ball (Gray had by far the best game of his career, completing 11-of-17 passes for 193 yards and a touchdown with no picks)—10-15 yard passes to the sideline (between the corner and the deep safety) and the seam right up the middle (splitting the two deep safeties and over the top of the middle linebacker).
Iowa also had a difficult time defending runs right up the middle—more on that later—and this was against a Minnesota team that was (a) Minnesota and (b) trying out a new starter at left guard. The Hawkeye run defense is just 69th in the country, and their pass defense, shockingly, is worse (91st in opponent passer efficiency) despite boasting a pair of well-hyped corners in Shawn Prater and Micah Hyde. Prater looks susceptible to deep passes over the top (on the rare occasion when he is in man) and also got beat to the inside on a few slants. Hyde was barely tested, though he did have a nice pass breakup on a fade in the end zone and drew what I thought was a questionable pass interference call.
PLAY BREAKDOWN: About that cover 2—if you're going to run it, you need your safeties to be very, very disciplined. Iowa was usually pretty good about not letting anything go over the top, but they had trouble with play-action passes, especially this one, as free safety Tanner Miller bit on the run fake and could not recover and get outside:
That play went for 61 yards as Minnesota both drew up the free safety (on the right in this picture) on the play-fake and occupied the strong safety by running a post with their slot receiver. I'm actually surprised they didn't also send both outside receivers on streak routes, instead of just the one, but Minnesota likely wants Gray to have a safe underneath option—with the middle linebacker also occupied by the post, the slant could've worked here if the streak wasn't so hand-wavingly wide open.
The Hawkeyes also had trouble with runs up the middle—Minnesota's second-to-last scoring drive consisted of 11 runs on 12 plays, only one of which was an outside run, and that one a scramble on a pass play by Gray—as their defensive tackles repeatedly got sealed to the outside. Here's one such example in which not one, but both DTs end up getting pushed off to the left (from the offense's POV), allowing Duane Bennett to bust a 15-yard run up the middle:
I know this one's tough to see, but #93 (the interior D-lineman with his back turned) started as the DT on the right hash, while Binns (the near-side DE) is getting sealed to the outside by the right tackle. The arrow shows you where Bennett will find a gaping hole as the linebackers were unable to fill. I was pretty unimpressed by the linebacker play of Iowa, even though MLB James Morris recorded 13 tackles—too often they were passive and allowed blockers to get right into them. Now that Al Borges has introduced the inverted veer to the offense, I'd like to see Michigan try to exploit this weakness up the middle and see if they can get Denard running full speed into the secondary. Fitz Toussaint's success last week came almost entirely off the edge, so I think Shoelace gives Michigan the best chance to break a big run up the gut.
Maybe it's because THEY LOST TO FREAKIN' MINNESOTA, FERGODSAKES, or just because there seem to be several weaknesses that play right into Michigan's hands, but I have a hard time seeing the Wolverines losing this one unless Coker goes HAM and Michigan commits multiple turnovers. I'm quite confident in this one now that there's enough evidence that the defense isn't a complete mirage. Hooray for confidence in the defense.
Coker going HAM over all doesn't seem unreasonable. Hopefully we can limit him somewhat and force Vandenberg to make sloppy throws.
The Henne comparison you made earlier in your piece was made spot-on with that sentence.
Great work, by the way. Really nice breakdown.
offense needs to not turn the ball over. We do that and there will be little drama on Saturday. The Minnesota loss further exposed Iowa as unlike the Iowa teams of the recent past. Can't remember the last time we played Iowa and our defensive statistics looked better across the board. 1985? Not a good memory about that game. I was there. If only Brad Cochran held on to the ball from Chuck Long that hit him in the numbers.
He would get them down the field, go out for a few plays and then the wheels would come off. The guy is awesome, but is victim to not having any backup due to transfers and Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God.
Even Marquis Walker's TD catch didn't save the day.
Strange things happen when Michigan traves to Iowa
I think, coming off a loss and questions about his job, Ferentz has his team READY this week.
Unless, of course, they've quit on him <giddy laugh>
Wow. We won @ Iowa in 2001. I sure don't remember winning. Seems we lost to Iowa every year while I was a student. Damn Dwight Clark.
Was Dwight Clark the love child of Tim Dwight and Dallas Clark, or is that just someone I've never heard of?
in overtime in 2005. But I share your concern regarding this game. There is absolutely no way that Iowa should lose to Minnesota, I don't really think that says anything about Iowa other than Minnesota fluked out a win. It does say that Iowa is going to be hyper pissed and essentially playing for their season.
I feel considerably less comfortable about this game than I did before Iowa lost to Minnesota.
Iowa always plays Michigan tough at home, I agree with you, they come out ready to play. Michigan better be ready also.
highway. Everything should go as planned and be ok, but it seems like that one event (DC not realizing tight ends catch balls, installing a new punt formation) that leaves me cursing like a sailor.
Iowa's base D is quarters/cover 4. A good tipoff is who forces run. In cover 2 it's the corner; in quarters it's a safety.
Just because there are two safeties in the middle of the field doesn't exactly mean it's cover 2.
I'm not just making up the cover 2 thing. Here's a quote from a Black Heart Gold Pants post from this past summer, and they would definitely know what they're talking about:
If the offense is bold, the defense is crazy sick bold. You want to run single-back against Iowa? Norm Parker will throw a 4-3 cover 2 on you so fast your head will spin. What about the I formation? BOOM 4-3 cover 2! Deal with that! What about four-wide shotgun? Betcha can't handle this 4-3 cover 2, mofos! Single-wing? FOUR. THREE. COVER. TWO. The glasses fall down on Norm Parker's nose and he says you should deal with it. He boldly rushes four on every pass. He boldly leaves three linebackers on the field against five wideouts. Dude's bold as all get-out.
I have no idea who "recruiting ninja" is, but I don't think he's a scout for the Bears. Iowa's base D is a cover 4, 4-3 under. Thank you for citing your source, it's very helpful.
That was my signature, not the source. The source is the best Iowa blog out there. I also just watched every snap of the Iowa-Minny game, and the cornerbacks rarely dropped to cover 4 depth. Norm Parker is synonymous with the cover 2 defense—he's been running it for 20 years.
I'm not familiar with this "No question, Jim" character, but he hardly seems like a reliable source for HALOLs.
Iowa absolutely runs a base 4-3 with a cover 2 scheme. They may drop into a cover 4 at times, which means the corners drop into a 1/4 (quarter coverage) zone, but Iowa's corners are clearly responsible for the flats, which is a cover 2 scheme. After reading this, Ace clearly points out that Iowas corner are flat players, making them a cover 2 scheme team.
It's fine if you wish to discard my comment -- but Matt Bowen would like a word with you:
"... Michigan State is in their Posse (311) personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB) vs. Iowa’s base 4-3 Under front playing Cover 4 in the secondary."
And it's fine if you still wish to discard my comment, but New York Giants' safeties coach Dave Merritt would like a word with you:
"And wrapping up Merritt's safety talk, the coach said he's looking to see rookie S Tyler Sash react to plays from the "post" (deep middle safety) position. Merritt said Sash played mostly "quarters" (Cover-4) in college at Iowa and must now learn to react to the quarterback in Cover-1. As the only player deep, he must get a quick read on the play to provide better coverage support.
I don't understand the comment, below, i.e., that the differences between cover-2 and cover-4 comprise distinctions without a difference -- and Chris Brown would like a word with you:
So on balance, while I'm sure that someone on BHGP said that Iowa runs Cover-2 as their base D, and that is surely a definitive citation, it certainly is ironic that the Giants, Bowen and Brown don't know what they are talking about.
It will be great if Michigan assumes a cover-2 base D from Iowa, as does the scout here who references BHGP as his source. I don't think they will, however. It's a very different defense.
@Bellanca, re: "I don't understand the comment, below, i.e., that the differences between cover-2 and cover-4 comprise distinctions without a difference..."
If that's my comment you're referring to, read it again: I said that for casual fans, the differences are minor.
I'm not trying to disagree with you. I'm only trying to explain to some of the other readers here that (a) they probably are misinterpreting your use of "quarters" as "four deep zones", and (b) that it is easy to mistake quarters coverage for cover-2 man if you're not paying attention to shading and how the safeties are reacting to routes. In quarters, if the DBs make a "clue" check on one side and an "alert" check on the other, to most casual observers and fans it will look exactly like cover-2 man.
I am quite sure that Al Borges and Greg Mattison are fully aware of what defense Iowa runs, and that's really all that's important.
Hey, thanks. Great gloss on the subject. The casual fan obviously is tripped up by the fact that there are two safeties. I'm sure your scouting report is not casual, however.
Good luck tomorrow. If they make Denard throw the ball, one of you geniuses needs to explain why.
The author is Patrick Vint, the founder of your favorite site. You can take it up with him.
Just to clarify and hopefully make some peace here: what is described by modern DC's as "quarters" is not a four-deep zone coverage (which is kind of an old-school definition of the term), but rather something quite similar to a cover-2 in most situations. The difference with quarters is that (a) there are specific pre-snap reads that the corners and safeties make, often causing them to change their responsibilities, and (b) the corners rarely will chase receivers inside, instead staying with the widest receiver. It's quite possible that Iowa does run quarters but it's hard to tell with most TV camera angles. And anyway, the difference for most casual fans is small enough that whether you call it "quarters" or "a cover-2 variant" is not really going to matter.
Oddly, I have heard of BHGP. See paragraph (2):
on the road. Right-sized challenge for an increasingly confident team. Must execute, etcetera, but--have to say--I am no longer looking forward to Saturday with as much fear as anticipation.
Coker is better than Cierre Wood and Ronnie Hillman?
This will be a very good test for Michigan. Iowa doesn't blow teams out unless that team is terrible. I look forward to watching Parker and Borges engage in a duel of minds.
Woolfolk finds himself the matador to Iowa's Coker.
Iowa dominated Minnesota for the majority of the game. Minn had 1 first down the entire first half and kept that going well into the 3rd period. Meanwhile, Iowa drove down the field every series before doing things like missing field goals, turning the ball over, and failing key 4th down conversions. Iowa was up 21-7 in the 4th quarter despite a slew of these silly mistakes. It should/could have been 45-7. Then Minnesota found some magic, scored, onside kick, score again - clock depleted, game over.
Basically, they played like '10 Michigan on offense - move the ball with ease but fail to maximize the retrun in the form of actual points. However, that doesn't appear to be a trend. Iowa's done fairly well against everyone besides Penn State, who has a defense that is (probably) superior to Michigans.They also played like '10 Michigan on defense, but only in the 4th quarter.
The Northwestern games are probably more instructive. Iowa was badly outgained by Northwestern and benefited from a defensive TD, but did win by 10. Michigan, as you know, dominated the 2nd half after losing the 1st. This tells me Michigan can be much better than Iowa, but they can also screw up and be worse. It also tells me a well-executed spread-attack can move the ball on Iowa, but we've known that for a couple year - you have to earn it by chipping away steadily and not turning the ball over. A familiar issue, eh.
Denard has struggled with turnovers against Iowa and they knocked him out last year. This is no slam dunk. Iowa isn't great, but dismissing them for losing to Minnesota is not a good idea...and on the road strange things can happen. I think Michigan deserves to be favored here, but Vegas puts the line at 4, so neutral consensus says we shouldn't be too confident.
At no time was the score 21-7; when your 'oops I did something bad' is three types of errors on four drives, it's possible that you just aren't a very good team.
You're right about that, was not 21-7 but 21-10.
Iowa is 12-16 on FGs and their QB has 17 TDs to 4 INTs. It's possible that what happened was a fluke. I'll take the big sample size over the small one.
The two main points I'd emphasize are:
--They don't get good pressure on the QB (84th in Div 1). Denard has done FAR better, as most qbs do, with more time.
--They don't protect well (68th), and the stats are clear, didn't protect well against Minnesota or other teams. Yeah, Coker could kill us, and I suspect that the majority of the damage will come there. But so far, we haven't been slaughtered by good running backs. Hurt, yes, slaughtered, no.
I think we win this one.
how Minnesota used a quirky strategy (putting the DEs wide) that consistently allowed for Coker to run up the middle but contained long passes and produced a pass rush.
What you wrote are probably things that Michigan can exploit...but will they. I agree that Denard does better with time, but Iowa's proven to be able to keep him in check, historically.
Coker's a threat but isn't going to run for 200 yards and 3 TDs by himself - I'm more worried about avoiding big plays for the passing game.
I think we win too, I'm just saying the Minnesota game shouldn't weigh heavily in the discussion.
I watched the first couple minutes of B1G football in 60 yesterday and Minnesota scored in the 1st half.. and had SEVERAL first downs..
You are way off base saying they only had 1 first down the whole first half.. they had 3 or 4, along with a 61 yard pass play.. which Iowa completely blew coverage on..
Don't try to make it out like they completely dominated minnesota when they let them back in the game with big plays
Minnesota did score in the first half, but it was due to a single big play. They actually did have, not one, but two first downs in the half. Both came on the last drive. Every other 1st half drive failed to yield a single 1st down.
He seems to have lost confidence. The fan base definitely has with him so it will be interesting to see if he is able to pick up his game or we step on him with the passing game.
Is a container and not a format. Chances are the video should be easily recoverable with nandub our one of the other tools. In my experience, divx and xvid are the most common encodes with ogg being fairly common.
Check doom9 for converter infos, perhaps.
I live in Iowa City and watch the Hawks closely despite my Ann Arbor roots and Michigan loyalty. This game is NOT to be taken lightly although it is definitely winnable. The local press has once again begun questioning Ferentz even though he never changes his approach or his guarded optimism. It hasn't been a great season a half for him, other than a rousing win in last year's Whatever Bowl against hardly scary Mizzou. Coker is good but the team is really most dangerous when they are underestimated, especially at Kinnick. A win against Michigan is always a huge highlight and on this occasion it could actually begin to save their season from another hugely disappointing drop-off. We have to be patient and play on an even keel for 60 minutes, with few if any turnovers. Iowa is capable of making big plays and getting the home crowd behind them. I won't be surprised if either team wins but from my vantage point Michigan should prevail if they take nothing for granted, especially the angry Hawkeye in the corner.
And we happen to be the team that's going to get their most intense effort of the year.
Until last Saturday, Iowa's season was sailing along well-enough at 5-2 and still in control of their B1G destiny.
Now they are on a path for a disastrous season. Pizza Bowl or staying home for the holidays.
Unless they beat Michigan to regain their mojo.
You can expect a team playing for its survival for the first time to be fiercely motivated.
If the space between the safety and CBs are open, then the Flood Stack formation should work well against them right?
This will be a good game. Denard's redemption from..
So... let's run the ball, yes?
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