Fee Fi Foe Film: Illinois Comment Count

Ace

I'm going to apologize in advance for this edition of FFFF—I had three Illinois games lined up to watch, then the PSU scandal happened and two of the games wouldn't import into iMovie, so I spent a lot of time trying to figure out what the hell was going on and less time actually getting to the film. Luckily, I've already watched two Illinois games—against Northwestern and Purdue—for previous FFFFs, so I've got some previous knowledge to go on.

The bad news: The one video that worked was the Illinois-Penn State offensive debacle from a couple weeks ago. Lucky for you, I get to extract the few successful plays from that game, but let's just say there wasn't much to choose from.

A.J. Jenkins, lone receiving threat. Unfortunately, lone and very good.

OFFENSE

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? A very run-heavy spread, featuring a lot of zone read and some triple option, though Illinois will also switch it up and go I-form with big starting running back Jason Ford.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Though the Illini run all the freakin' time, they're actually more basketball on grass due to the large percentage of zone running plays. They will pull a guard every once in a while, but zone running is the bread and butter of this offense.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is the Illini's leading rusher with 501 yards, but those have come on 137 carries (just 3.7 ypc). If you take out all the sacks Illinois has allowed this season—they also randomly insert freshman Reilly O'Toole at times, so this may be generous to Scheelhaase—that average jumps to 5.9 yards per carry. He's a powerful runner for a quarterback and can make guys miss or run them over, but doesn't have breakaway speed. I'll give him a 7.

Dangerman: WR A.J. Jenkins (#9) has 68 receptions—46 more than any other Illini player—for 1,030 yards and seven touchdowns. He's their lone big-play threat, but he's also really good, and Illinois runs the ball so much that things often open up for him in the secondary.

OVERVIEW: Illinois is going to run the ball. A lot. Their run/pass split on the season (sacks included as passes) is 383/262, meaning they run the ball right around 60% of the time. They'll mostly go out of the shotgun and their early downs are almost always run plays, rarely passing on first or second down except off play-action, when they'll often take a deep strike to Jenkins to see if they can generate more than five yards on a single play. Both Scheelhaase and running back Jason Ford (6'0", 235 pounds) are downhill runners who are at their best when they find a crease and go until they hit something.

The Illini will also mix in some triple option, often out of this look, which didn't show up in the Penn State game so I'll give you a screencap—the fullback lined up next to Scheelhaase gets the dive (or dive fake), and then the option play goes towards the strong side:

[image removed because it broke the feed]

The option attack hasn't been particularly effective for Illinois, and they abandoned it entirely against Penn State, but we could see it again as the Illini test out the edge of Michigan's defense. However, most of Scheelhaase's runs against Penn State came on designed QB draws, which I think is actually the best way to use him considering his size and lack of breakaway speed—get him going upfield and he has success. It'll be up to Michigan's interior line to stop Scheelhaase and Ford, and they'll be tested frequently.

Illinois also eschews the normal way of assigning linemen (you know, left tackle, right guard, etc.), instead having strongside and weakside tackles and guards who will flip sides depending on the formation. They put their better linemen—tackle Jeff Allen and guard Hugh Thornton—on the strongside and tend to have more success running behind them.

PLAY BREAKDOWN:

This breakdown will be rather short, as Illinois doesn't exactly have a ton of tricks up their sleeve. Here's what they want to do to your defense—open up a crease in the middle of the line, let Scheelhaase or Ford (in this case, Ford) get going downhill, and pick up big chunks on the ground:

That's a typical Jason Ford run right there—straight north-south, not a lot of wiggle, slam into the guys attempting to tackle. If he gets into the secondary, Woolfolk/Gordon will be tested.

Illinois uses their frequent running to set up the pass, and while it's usually to A.J. Jenkins, here's a PA tight end seam that went for their lone touchdown against Penn State:

The safeties must make sure to stay sharp and disciplined, because it's easy to get lulled to sleep against this offense. All it takes is a couple big plays to turn the tide of a game, and Illinois gets their big plays out of the play-action passing game. Otherwise, Scheelhaase tends to go underneath or, quite often, hold onto the ball too long and either scramble outside for minimal yardage or take a sack. Keep contain, Jake Ryan and Craig Roh. Please keep contain.

OFFENSIVE BULLETS

  • Yes, Illinois's backup QB really is named Reilly O'Toole—Brian said the name reminded him of a Bond girl, though I'm inclined to go with porn star (not that the names are markedly different)—and we'll probably see him come in for a series or two. I'm not exactly sure why. O'Toole doesn't really run (four carries for 12 yards this year), and while he's completed 22 of 29 passes this year (72.4%), he's averaging a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt and has tossed two interceptions. He doesn't have a very strong arm and he's very much a dink-and-dunk QB. Why Illinois regularly lifts Scheelhaase for him is anybody's guess. Maybe Ron Zook just loves the name.
  • Michigan could see two different Illinois backup running backs. One is 5'8", 190-pound senior Troy Pollard, who has put up great numbers (48 carries for 390 yards) but almost entirely against terrible competition—his best game against a remotely viable opponent was when he amassed 24 yards on five carries against Ohio State, and he was held to two yards on five carries against the Nittany Lions. Donovonn Young—a 6'0", 215-pound freshman—has 63 carries for 363 yards this year, but again much of his production has come against awful teams (the lion's share of his yards have come against South Dakota State, Western Michigan, and Indiana). He does flash some decent speed, however, and is a decent change-of-pace option to complement Ford.

For the defensive breakdown, hit the jump.

DEFENSE

Base Set? 3-4/multiple. Illinois shows a lot of different looks on defense, and instead of starting a true 3-4 outside linebacker or a 4-3 defensive end they have #99, Michael Buchanan, as a "bandit"—he's listed at 6'6", 240, and he can either stand up or play with his hand down, but usually comes off the edge unless Illinois is running a zone blitz, which they do rather often.

Man or zone coverage? Mostly zone coverage, though they aren't entirely averse to man. They usually run zone because...

Pressure: GERG or Greg? ...DC Vic Koenning is a lot like Greg Mattison in that he likes to throw out a lot of different looks to confuse the quarterback, and his favorite way to do this is to switch up the fronts and zone blitz. He doesn't always bring huge pressure—in fact, he'll often just bring four rushers, just not always the ones you'd expect—but you're never exactly sure where to look for blitzers. I really liked his playcalling style, and I think his coaching has a lot to do with the Illini's success on defense (duh, I know).

Dangerman: DE Whitney Mercilus (#85) already has 44 tackles, 16.5 TFLs, and 11.5 sacks this season. He's one of the most impressive players I've watched this year, and we'd all better hope Taylor Lewan is healthy and in top form this weekend. Mark Huyge will have his hands full when Mercilus lines up across from him.

OVERVIEW: Like I covered in the earlier sections, Illinois throws out a lot of different looks and likes to run a lot of zone. They have a lot of speed on their defense, but not a ton of size outside of the defensive tackles (Akeem Spence and Glenn Foster) and Mercilus—those three are relied upon to stuff anything up the middle, while the rest of the defense does a very good job of stretching out plays and getting a lot of players to the football. Buchanan is an undersized DE when he lines up there, and Penn State's Silas Redd had a fair amount of success running off-tackle plays at him, but the slower backs for Purdue couldn't get outside at all against the Illini. Lucky for Michigan, Fitz Toussaint is much more comparable to Redd in terms of speed and agility than any of Purdue's backs.

PLAY BREAKDOWN: As noted, Illinois loves to zone blitz, but they don't always bring a ton of heat. On this play, Buchanan lines up at left DE, but backs off at the snap while the Illini rush a linebacker instead. Matt McGloin doesn't read the play well, panics into a quick checkdown, and ends up throwing a pick when cornerback Terry Hawthorne makes a great play on the ball:

That's what happens when the Illini are at their best. The regular zone blitzing does have its drawbacks, however, and on this play PSU picks up a six-man rush, allowing McGloin to step up in the pocket and hit his receiver between the underneath coverage and the deep safety:

Against the run, Illinois is quite strong, currently allowing just over 100 yards per game, good for 15th in the country. Penn State did seem to find a weakness, however, as they repeatedly found success running the toss to take advantage of (1) the undersized DE and (2) Illinois's tendency to overpursue, a drawback for a defense that really runs hard towards the football. Here are three plays of varying success on a quick outside toss—on the first and third, you can actually see Mercilus get sealed from the play, while on the second the Nittany Lions go right at Buchanan as outside linebacker Trulon Henry gets too far upfield on the play:

With Toussaint showing good speed, vision, and agility in recent weeks, I'd like to see Michigan run a few toss plays and see if they can spring him into the second level, where Toussaint has shown he can make guys miss and break some big plays.

DEFENSIVE BULLETS

  • When Michigan gets into obvious passing situations, we'll see if they can hold up to Illinois's pass rush. Mercilus is obviously a huge threat, but Buchanan has six sacks and is a dangerous speed-rusher off the edge—he could give Huyge, who hasn't proven to be very quick in pass protection, some major problems. Outside linebacker Jonathan Brown—who you may recognize as "the guy who kneed that Northwestern lineman in the nuts"—has also picked up 4.5 sacks. Illinois will also blitz their defensive backs, especially whoever is lined up at nickel corner, so protecting the edge will be a huge factor in this game.
  • DT Akeem Spence is extremely disruptive in the run game, and he'll be the major focus for Michigan's interior lineman. He has 46 tackles so far this season and is tasked with protecting the middle while the Illini dial up the pressure on the outside, and he does an outstanding job considering how much is asked of him. He's a very powerful player, and with Ricky Barnum's status still uncertain and Patrick Omameh having his struggles in the new system, Spence could have a big day on Saturday.
  • I didn't get to see the Illini safeties tested much against Penn State or Purdue, but strong safety Steve Hull took a couple bad angles to the ball in the running game. If he does that against Denard, obviously big plays could be in store for the Wolverines.

Overall, this Illinois defense is very strong, and I think Michigan's best chance at putting up good numbers is to attack the edge—especially away from Mercilus—with Toussaint while not putting Denard Robinson in tough third down situations, when the defense is liable to force turnovers with their confusing zone blitz schemes. The Michigan defense will have to play strong on the interior—and that may be an issue with Will Heininger starting at one DT spot and Kenny Demens reportedly being banged up—and make sure not to let Jenkins get over the top or catch the ball in too much space, where he's the one player who can really inflict big damage quickly.

Comments

Baldbill

November 9th, 2011 at 3:40 PM ^

Unfortunately I think Illinois will have used thier off week to install enough tricks to confuse the heck out of Michigan. Michigan on the road this year has not been great, I am feeling a bit pessimistic about the outcome.

 

BlueMan80

November 9th, 2011 at 5:02 PM ^

we can actually recognize and stop the half back wheel route that GERG could never figure out last year.  Illinois' defense was looking strong until we played them last year, so I hope Borges pulled out the game film to see what worked.  Actually, the shorter list is what didn't work for the offense last year.  Illinois spent most of the ASU game in their backfield, so the O line needs to play well.  Illinois' D line can be very disruptive when they've got it going.  The team needs to start strong and dampen the crowd's enthusiasm that's for sure.

uminks

November 10th, 2011 at 12:26 AM ^

And I think we will be alright!  The defense will play well against IL, I'm just worried about the offense finishing drives with points, TD's more so than FG's. If the offense can move the ball and score on IL, I think we have a good chance of winning. If not, we'll see another road loss and probably a 7-5 finish.