Fee Fi Foe Film: Florida State Defense Comment Count

Ace

Previously: Florida State Offense



...damn.

As it turns out, not having a functional passing game against Florida State's defense is a serious issue. Florida, a subpar-at-best running team, managed a respectable 4.6 yards on 23 non-sack rushes against FSU. On their 41 dropbacks, however, they gained only 149 yards through the air and lost 46 on six sacks for a total average of 2.5 yards per pass play.

Michigan, with a month to prepare a superior offense, will fare better than Florida. They'll still deal with the same core issue: how do you slow down FSU's pass rush enough to consistently move the ball?

Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:

FSU is dealing with serious injury problems in their secondary. Star free safety Derwin James was lost early in the season; starting strong safety Nate Andrews tore his pectoral against Miami; replacement Ermon Lane, who made a midseason move from wide receiver, is out after suffering a foot injury in practice. What had been arguably FSU's strongest position group is now piecing a lineup together with scotch tape and chewing gum:

With Lane out FSU will likely move Trey Marshall back from the star position, and move true freshman Kyle Meyers into his spot. Meyers has played quite a bit this season with Marshall moving back and forth between the safety and star positions, as well as an injury that kept him out of the NC State game.

If FSU wants to keep the physical Marshall close to the line of scrimmage to help out against the Wolverines downhill rushing attack, then it will be sophomore defensive back Calvin Brewton that will play opposite of sophomore A.J. Westbrook. Brewton has played sparingly this season, but he has played more than true freshman Carlos Becker.

Florida wasn't able to test FSU's safeties at all in the passing game; that shouldn't be the case with Michigan.

Base Set? 4-3, often with a standup weakside DE; FSU uses the same "BUCK" term for that position that DJ Durkin used in his time at Michigan.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Man or zone coverage? A lot of zone, especially Cover 2. FSU saves man coverage mostly for their more elaborate blitzes. The Noles have a lot of big, rangy defensive backs—everyone in their starting secondary is at least 6'0"—who are good at coming downhill against the run and closing on passes, and the zone-heavy scheme plays to their strengths. Austin Appleby isn't a very good starting quarterback; he also didn't have a lot to work with in this game:

On this particular play, he rolled right to escape pressure and the corner playing the flat closed in to force a throwaway.

Pressure: GERG or Greg? One thing FSU did very well in this game was disguise their blitzes, which was especially effective since Florida had to focus a great deal of attention on DE DeMarcus Walker (more on him soon). The Noles consistently got pressure with a four-man rush, but on third downs they liked to bring heavier pressure and force Appleby into hasty decisions. Their ability to disguise blitzes and overload one side without devoting too many players to the rush made this work. Just based on the number of players in the box, Florida has enough blockers here to handle any blitz FSU brings their way:

FSU overloads the near side, however, and Florida made multiple errors: the line didn't slide their protection and the running back picked the wrong guy. Appleby rushed a throw that got stopped short of the goal line because, despite it being 5-on-5, FSU got a free rusher:

Here's another example from the very next play. Safety/HSP Trey Marshall lines up as if he's going to drop into coverage; only a subtle peek into the backfield tips that he may blitz. Neither Appleby nor the running back notices this and once again FSU gets a rusher in free in a 5-on-5 situation—Appleby is immediately under duress with nobody open:

The variety and unpredictability of FSU's blitzes can cover for some issues with their injury-plagued secondary. The slot receiver (#4) is about to be wide open on a corner route for a touchdown here but Appleby is already throwing the quick hitch—which Marquez White (#27) will break up—because there's another free hitter in his face:

FSU doesn't play flawless coverage—far from it, in fact—but they force the quarterback, offensive line, and running back to make a lot of quick decisions that often lead to mistakes. Florida's passing offense up and died because Appleby isn't great and his blockers consistently blew protections. Michigan should do better in both the passing and blocking aspects; it'll still be a challenge to keep Wilton Speight from being harrassed into a couple errors.

Dangerman: FSU's two best linemen are up there with the two best linemen from any program in the country. 280-pound SDE DeMarcus Walker is an absolute terror against both the run and the pass. He leads the team with 63 tackles, 41 of which are of the solo variety; if he's singled up on a blocker, especially a tight end, he's going to win far more often than not, and he does a great job of shedding and tackling against the run. He's even better against the pass in large part because he explodes off the snap:

Walker can rush off the edge or, as in the clip at the top of the post, from the interior, and he's equally effective from either spot. Michigan has faced a number of great defensive linemen this year; Walker's performance against Florida is the best I've seen from any of them. He'll give Michigan's tackles all they can handle and then some.

It doesn't get much easier on the interior due to the presence of 312-pound nose tackle Derrick Nnadi, who shouldn't be blocked one-on-one:

Much like Ryan Glasgow, Nnadi makes some sideline-to-sideline plays that most NTs simply aren't capable of making:

Mason Cole has had a tough time with some of the more elite NTs on Michigan's schedule, and Nnadi certainly qualifies as such. He's not unmovable—Florida got some decent push on him with double-teams a few times—but he demands double-blocking, and that can be tough with Walker on the same line.

In the secondary, sophomore Tarvarus McFadden is the top playmaker; he has eight picks, five PBUs, and three TFLs from his corner spot. He's not a lockdown corner. Florida beat him for a pitch-and-catch first down on a slant and had a couple chances to hit deeper throws that Appleby missed. He's still decent in coverage, though, and he can swing a game with big plays. He dropped a pick after jamming the hell out of another slant and running the route for the receiver; he forced Florida into a fourth-and-one with one of the more improbable tackles I've seen:

McFadden is well back of Walker and Nnadi in terms of down-to-down impact, but he can have a similar overall effect on the game in only a handful of plays.

OVERVIEW

Florida's relative success running the ball gives me hope that despite the presence of Walker and Nnadi, Michigan will be able to consistently move the chains. DT Demarcus Christmas is a solid plugger up front who complements Walker and Nnadi well. The key for Florida was getting to FSU's backup DTs, who were a clear step down, if they wanted to move the ball between the tackles. Whether against the starters or backups, however, Florida had most of their success on the edge:

That particular play is an example of why freshman Brian Burns (#99), who has 8.5 sacks this year, almost exclusively plays on passing downs. Starter Josh Sweat is the opposite type of player, stout against the run and a relative non-factor as a pass-rusher.

The linebacker group didn't impress me very much. Ro'Derrick Hoskins is a good run-stuffer between the tackles but looks ponderous when he has to get to the edge. Surprisingly, that was also the case with Jacob Pugh, their nominal spacebacker—he's #16, the playside linebacker on this end-around:

The WILL, Matthew Thomas, did well in pass coverage on the occasion he was targeted downfield, sticking with a wheel route all the way. Against the run, however, he looked hesistant on a few plays, waiting and catching blocks instead of attacking his gap.

The secondary is big, rangy, and capable of making a lot of plays because they're almost always facing the backfield—an advantage of the zone-heavy system. Florida's lack of a downfield passing game kept the safeties from being involved much at all. There did appear to be a blown coverage or two—someone missed their assignment on the hitch/corner combo screencapped in the blitz section but there wasn't a useful replay—but the pass rush covered for most apparent issues. The PFF grades indicate you can move the ball through the air on these guys, especially when picking on the non-McFadden DBs. Trey Marshall and Marcus Lewis are both in the red in pass coverage and staring corner Marquez White is only a couple points to the positive.

While Walker and Nnadi are going to get theirs, Michigan should be able to put together a game plan that produces enough points to win this game. I'd bet Harbaugh focuses a good deal on taking advantage of the linebacker level; Florida doesn't have a tight end close to the caliber of Jake Butt, let alone a deep group of contributors at that spot. Quick-hitting plays to the edge—like, say, Eddie McDoom jet sweeps and their various counters—could also hit for long gains. Florida missed some openings to hit big plays deep; Michigan has both a better quarterback and better receivers, plus a running back who's very good at picking up blitzes.

This one could come down to which team comes out with a positive RPS number, especially when FSU blitzes. With a month to prepare, I like Harbaugh's chances of coming out on top.

Comments

tlhwg

December 28th, 2016 at 4:17 PM ^

Completely agree that UM should attack the LBs in coverage.

Don't sleep on CB White. He's a Sr, he's a starter in a secondary with multiple 5* DBs and he's projected to be the 10th or so CB drafted.

And I wouldn't expect to have any success on a jet sweep (even Peppers) bc of FSUs speed.

Bottom line is that FSU has much more success against Pro style Os, most of our losses come from teams with mobile QBs.

funkywolve

December 28th, 2016 at 4:25 PM ^

to see who gets Perry's snaps.  Perry had a solid game against OSU.  With FSU's injuries at db, it'd be nice to have that solid slot/3rd option guy to take advantage of the FSU secondary.

imafreak1

December 28th, 2016 at 4:27 PM ^

Florida wasn't able to test FSU's safeties at all in the passing game;

Did they even try? I don't recall testing the safeties, at least deep, being something that Nussmeier was at all interested in doing when he was calling plays at Michigan.

ScruffyTheJanitor

December 28th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^

If FSU can keep all of their Juniors and peice together even an an average O-Line, they should be a top-3 team easy (Even without cook they should be close to that). This team has a ton of really, really good sophmores and juniors. 

This year, however, their offensive line should be consumed by Michigan's cavalcade of D-lineman (the D stands for Death). However, even with everyother play blown up at the LOS, Cook and Francois are good enough to piece together a few drives and sprinkle in a couple of long plays. 

Michigan will give up their share of sacks, but when upright I expect Speight to destroy them deep. I also think that Michigan's run game will include a couple of clever wrinkles that will allow them to establish a running game. 

Basically, FSU's dline will theirs, Cook will make Michigan fans throw their hands up a few times, and Francois will probably look really good when he's not getting pummled. But Michigan should win this game by attrition and FSU won't have enough big plays to pull this off. 

I like Michigan to win, 31-24. 

dragonchild

December 28th, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^

My ongoing concern is that over the last few games the offense had been biffing too many key plays.

On the plus side, maybe non-B1G refs will actually call holding when they bear-hug Taco?  Too much to hope for?

Ziff72

December 28th, 2016 at 5:20 PM ^

This defense got obliterated time and again this season and now they have no safeties? The review may be tainted because of Florida's ineptitude.

MichiganMan14

December 28th, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^

FSU has given up over 20 points once in the last 7 games and that was to Clemson in a shootout. The defense is completely different from the one that was getting housed the first month of the season. It's night and day to be frank. Simple schematic changes despite losing an AA at safety made huge differences. I do agree though that Florida is not a comparable offense. I think Clemson would be too advanced with better personnel than Michigan has. I think maybe Miami would be the best comparison talent wise to Michigan on offense at least. FSU won't look as dominant against Michigan on defense as they did against Florida. I agree with you 100% on that.

dragonchild

December 29th, 2016 at 9:08 AM ^

Hill's a quasi-dangerman because his edge blocking is unusually good for a fullback, but he's inconsistent as a conventional fullback.  It's actually remarkable how well Harbaugh's been at getting Hill into space, but he'd much prefer a fullback that won't biff a pass protection.  Hill doesn't really scare DCs; if anything he's probably targeted because he can be confused.

I could just be imposing my definition of what a "star" is (in this context), but I take "dangerman" to mean someone the opposing coaches need to respect as an individual and can't effectively scout team because you can't regard them as a "replacement" level player (i.e., "just a guy").  In this sense Butt qualifies; he's a mediocre blocker but his receiving ability is so elite you can't go "is tight end" and cover him as such.  There is no one on your scout team that can replicate what he does.  As such he's rare in that he's a tight end that regularly gets bracketed, which opens up other things for the offense.

Nobody else on the offense does this, at least consistently, to warrant a star.  Late 2015 Chesson was morphing into a game-breaker, but since his off-season injury he seems to have lost a step when speed was his biggest asset.  Darboh is a very solid all-around receiver, but there isn't a single thing he does in particular that pulls extra defenders away from their base concepts.  When a defensive coordinator looks at our receivers, due respect is given to their overall skill, but otherwise he can go, "is wide receiver" and scheme as such.  Hill makes DCs go "is fullback (but w/ edge blocking, meh)", not, "We need to get two free hitters every blitz because this guy will always pick one off."  That's not a "dangerman" to me.

The main reason why this offense performed so far above expectation is that Harbaugh has been particularly good at drawing out the strengths while papering over the weaknesses, making the whole much greater than the sum of its parts.

jdemille9

December 28th, 2016 at 11:40 PM ^

That'd be nice, but comparing 2016 FSU to 2015 Florida is along the lines of comparing 2016 Michigan to Michigan St., it's an apples to rotten apples comparison. Florida essentially had no QB last year and they clearly didn't even want to be in that game. FSU has some elite players and they WILL come ready to play.

I think Michigan wins but I don't see it being a blowout, FSU has too much talent and Jimbo is an excellent coach. 

michiganfanforlife

December 29th, 2016 at 1:10 AM ^

I know everyone thinks Florida just didn't "want" to play, but I disagree. These kids live and breathe football. We just destroyed them with an uncanny focus. Harbaugh is a really good coach who can really pinpoint a deadly game plan with weeks to prepare. Get ready to watch that play out again Friday night as we obliterate this team. Sorry, bad OLine vs our DLine is just going to make it a long, long day for Cook and company.




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Magnus

December 29th, 2016 at 5:46 AM ^

Florida had a couple guys get suspended for the game and suffered a couple injuries, and there were rumors coming out of Gainesville - BEFORE the game - that some players were just trying to avoid getting hurt so they could get ready for the draft. Then they came out and laid an egg.

So yeah, I don't think they gave 100% effort, and they weren't at full strength.

dragonchild

December 29th, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^

that Hargreaves got roasted crispy by Chesson and went 11th in the draft anyway.  Outlier is outlier and pre-injury Chesson was starting to look like a first round pick himself, but the why is as important as the what.  If a player wants to peace out during an exhibition that's his perogative in that no one can stop him (I suppose the team can cut him in retaliation but that's a shortsighted move).  But, I mean, if I'm an NFL coach I'm not drafting a guy who dials it down to avoid getting hurt.  For starters if I have a top draft pick I'm likely coaching the Browns so every game is already meaningless to begin with (and FWIW, Tampa Bay missed the playoffs in '15).

DMill2782

December 29th, 2016 at 9:56 AM ^

They have been a let down against any good defense we played and Iowa. Our average yards per carry against those defenses (sacks removed):

Wisconsin - 3.9 YPC 

Iowa - 3.25 YPC

OSU - 2.7 YPC

UCF - 3.7 YPC - I know, I know. They totally sold out on the run. I'm not really counting this one too much.

Richard75

December 29th, 2016 at 10:09 AM ^

Yep, although it's not a letdown when it's totally expected.

The OL can't run-block against quality defenses. It's been proven time and time and time again. We'll run for somewhere around 100 yards; the question is how many mistakes will Speight make in the air. 0 or 1 and we're good; 2 or more and we've got problems.




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DMill2782

December 29th, 2016 at 10:23 AM ^

you are correct on the letdown aspect. I'm still disappointed every time I see it. I appreciate the hard work the senior o-linemen have put in, but their development was stunted by the previous staff. Two years was not enough to completely turn the ship around.

I'm hopeful that the o-line will continue to get better next year. It will be filled with players who have been properly coached for the vast majority of their college career. 

bronxblue

December 29th, 2016 at 12:32 PM ^

I agree it's struggled against the run, but Wisconsin only gives up 3.23 yards a game, and UM wasted a couple of downs there running the clock out; it was closer to 4.5 ypc when you factor those out.  Iowa was bad, and OSU is just a really good defense that was going to shut down UM.  FSU's run defense is solid, but I don't think it's earth-shattering and is closer to the Iowa/Wisconsin model.

Blue in PA

December 29th, 2016 at 10:29 AM ^

Hopefully Wilt will make enough passes early and Free Shoes U won't be able to stack the box, allowing something of a running attack.

 

I think a healthy Wilt has one of his best games Friday and the SR's get to go out with a win.