Fall Camp Storylines: Offense
It's submarine time. Yea, the beat writers will rend their garments and republish articles about Clayton Richard from ten years ago. Insider rumblings of wildly varying utility will leak out in drips and drabs. Half of them will be outright falsehoods. A quarter will be somewhat true. A quarter will be very true.
As per usual, I enter this month of the season frantically assembling data for the season preview; fall camp chatter will factor in as it always does. Here are the things I'm hoping to hear, the things that I'm hoping are never said, and ridiculous things I'll dismiss out of hand.
QUARTERBACK
[Bryan Fuller]
STATUS: Wilton Speight exited spring with a slight lead on John O'Korn, at least per spring draft and practice snap order. Even if that means more than "we want to motivate a guy" it's a 51/49 situation. It's all up for grabs.
THING YOU WANT TO HEAR: Someone is taking the job forcefully. Which guy doesn't matter so much. One of them grabbing the job by the throat, whoever that happens to be, is preferable. I'd prefer that gent is O'Korn since I think his mobility and arm strength gives him greater upside but if Speight is going to defy the Curse of Borges with authority, fine. Authority. This is the goal.
THING YOU DON'T WANT TO HEAR: "Brandon Peters really has a shot!" No offense intended, but the two leaders coming back to the pack would not be a good sign. Meanwhile true freshman anything is never great. I am open to hearing further encouraging things about Peters's future. Present not so much.
THING I WILL DISMISS OUT OF HAND: "Shane Morris really has a shot!" Morris was at best equal to Speight going into last season when Michigan agreed to redshirt him; Speight now has an extra slice of on-field experience and should improve more since he's younger. Also they put him at WR in the spring game.
RUNNING BACK
[Eric Upchurch]
STATUS: It's De'Veon Smith's job. Not his job to lose, his job. Smith's injury history—he was banged up all last year—and Harbaugh's tendency to play multiple tailbacks at once mean that the #2 and #3 guys will still be important.
THING YOU WANT TO HEAR: Ty Isaac remains on a rampage. With Smith getting he's-the-man rest, the story of spring practice was the emergence of a "rougher, tougher" Ty Isaac. His outside burst picked up piles of yards in the spring game, culminating in a run where he tacked on an extra 15 by outrunning Jabrill Peppers in the open field. That's something nobody managed all of last year, off balance or not. There's still a five star in there somewhere. The best possible news from camp would be Isaac looking like it.
THING YOU DON'T WANT TO HEAR: Smith is banged up and not practicing. It's not a coincidence that Smith's killer Citrus Bowl came after a month off. He missed the Maryland game and was limited in a few others because his pounding style racks up nagging injuries. His absence in the spring was as much precaution as triumph.
THING I WILL DISMISS OUT OF HAND: Someone insisting that Drake Johnson did not have a) a house land on him, 2) a gang of radioactive bikers abduct his dog, c) a mouth that spews nothing but sass grow on his finger, or d) all of the above.
WIDE RECEIVER
[Eric Upchurch]
STATUS: Darboh, Chesson, and Perry are your dudes, with a side of Peppers no one will talk about.
THING YOU WANT TO HEAR: "Gotdang, Moe Ways can play." The two outside starters are established so nothing we hear about them will mean much relative to all the stuff we've seen on an actual field. Ways is coming off a lot of spring hype we didn't get to see ourselves thanks to a foot injury late in spring practice. He's the best bet for a solid #3 this year and a smooth transition to the next generation in 2017.
THING YOU DON'T WANT TO HEAR: There are lingering Chesson PCL issues. Chances of this are low since the injury happened eight months ago, but WR is one of a couple positions where an injured starter is a big big deal.
THING I WILL DISMISS OUT OF HAND: Freshman X is going to have a big role. He ain't. Darboh, Chesson, Perry, and Butt are back. Michigan had no slot receiver a year ago and Grant Perry caught 105 passes as a high school senior and it still took him until the bowl game to be a major contributor. Freshman wide receivers suck.
I will accept "Eddie McDoom looks like a guy who can play a lot in 2017."
TIGHT END
[Bryan Fuller]
STATUS: lol all the dudes
THING YOU WANT TO HEAR: "Ian Bunting's Citrus Bowl was no fluke." Bunting flashed a surprising ability to whack dudes in the bowl game, and if he can continue that he'll be on the field with Jake Butt a lot. That is a tent-your-fingers situation there.
I have a runner up here, and that is "Ty Wheatley Jr has re-emerged from the sea after destroying Tokyo."
THING YOU DON'T WANT TO HEAR: "Henry Poggi is still missing blocks." To clarify, I expect to hear almost literally nothing about Poggi during fall camp because he is a fullback/H-back. I expect to hear even less about his specific ability to ID the man he should go hit in the chaos of camp. But if we were to hear that I would not be having a good time. Poggi has high upside as a blocker; the main thing that prevented him from hitting that a year ago was finding the right guy.
THING I WILL DISMISS OUT OF HAND: Further chatter about Sean McKeon playing this year. There was a consistent drumbeat that this was a possibility during spring; one glance at the depth chart should dispel all such notions.
OFFENSIVE LINE
[Eric Upchurch]
STATUS: Harbaugh announced Grant Newsome as a sure starter at media day. Oddly, he still maintained that the rest of the line—three fifth year seniors and Mason Cole—wasn't set. But, I mean, it's basically set.
THING YOU WANT TO HEAR: Year two in the same system with the same coaches is a revelation. Michigan had a lot of problems executing their assignments in front of the ever-shifting fronts defenses will throw at them. Some of this is expected. They've had three offensive coordinators over the last three years. This is the first time in their playing careers that they have an opportunity to build on something they already know.
THING YOU DON'T WANT TO HEAR: "Rueben Jones is tearing Grant Newsome up." Newsome got worked this spring. Getting worked by Taco Charlton is one thing. Getting worked by a Chase Winovich freshly moved from offense is another. Both happened. Newsome has the frame and mental ability to get there at left tackle; there are going to be hairy moments. Newsome getting negative reviews would be alarming since it appears there are few or no alternatives.
THING I WILL DISMISS OUT OF HAND: One of the three seniors is going to get benched. I know that possibility is the direct implication of Harbaugh's media day press conference, but I'd be flabbergasted if Dawson, Kugler or Bredeson managed to slide past any of them. Dawson and Kugler have had their shots the last few camps, and true freshmen are true freshmen. You can point to Mason Cole if you like but as a reminder, Mason Cole's main job as a freshman was to survive by the skin of his teeth. He did that; his performance wasn't any better than Kyle Kalis's projects to be this fall.
There is a version of this that wouldn't be dismissed and would be another thing you want to hear: a couple guys are pushing the seniors and are at least some threat to unseat a guy. Michigan's OL depth right now is questionable and it's more questionable going into next year. Being able to pencil someone in at a couple of the vacancies would be reassuring.
Yes you did.
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I debated answering your question as it is obvious you are not putting enough time into your M football obsession. Alas - During the media days (not sure B10 or the M one on Sunday) JH specifically mentioned that J-Lew expressed a desire to get some snaps on offense and that they would most-likely oblige him.
We need to find 2 starters for 2017. Perry's probably one of them, but the coaches aren't going to be worried about red-shirting kids unless Ways or Harris really establish themselves as Next.
I think the competition is going to be wide open and the coaches will want to see what they have against Hawaii, etc.
...Also, may help in recruiting DPJ and other '17s to see freshman WR playing right away.
Yeah, the idea that "freshmen WR suck" is pretty preposterous at most major programs. At USC, Mike Williams posted 1,200+ yards and 14 TD as a freshman in 2002. A year later Steve Smith put up 300+ yards as the number 3 WR. The next year, Dwayne Jarrett had 849 yards and 13 TD. In 2010 Robert Woods had 792 yards receiving and ran a kickoff back for a TD. In 2011 Marqise Lee had 1,100+ yards and 11 TD. In 2014 Juju Smith-Schuster put up over 700 yards. In 2012 Nelson Agholor put up over 300 yards, and probably would have had a lot more if he wasn't playing with Woods/Lee who combined for 2,500+ yards and 25 TD.
That is a major contribution every 2-3 years. Getting that kind of boost probably shouldn't be the annual expectation, but acting like it is impossible is kind of silly, and probably more a result of our program not being all that great over the last decade plus than anything else.
That production isn't going to be had by any of the current freshmen, though. However, next year may well bring DPJ and Nico Collins, and that prodcution then becomes more plausible...
Manningham was behind Breaston&Avant as a freshman but still got 400 yards and 6 TDs. There is certainly room for 3 WRs to produce, even with Butt around. So...
It all depends on how entrenched you think Perry's role is. If you buy into the Harbaugh meritocracy, you may not take it as a given that he'll hold off the freshman. And again, the potential for blowouts and the need for 2 new starters in 2017 are likely to provide plenty of canvas for the backups to make an impression.
Last year, we had 258 completed passes on the year. We'll probably have something close to the same total this year - hopefully less, because that means we won't have had many tight games and Harbaugh will have spent a lot of second halves running power 20 times in a row until the defenders are "done".
Last year Chesson had 50 catches, Darboh had 58, and Butt had 51. Considering that Chesson didn't emerge until halfway through the season, and Darboh and Butt were also inconsistent for the first few games, those guys are all probably going to have at least that many catches this year. If each has 60 catches, more or less, that leaves only about 70 completions total for other receivers.
Last year RBs had a total of 50 catches (counting Peppers' 8 catches as RB catches). Considering that Harbaugh likes to utilize RBs in the screen game and for those short passes over the middle, that will probably stay pretty consistent. Maybe it'll go down a little - let's say 40 catches total.
That leaves only 30 completions total for other receivers. That includes all non-Butt TEs and all WRs other than Chesson and Darboh. So unless one of our starters gets hurt, or we end up throwing a lot, we aren't going to have a WR3 produce a significant amount of yardage, because we have so many solid veterans to share the workload.
Last year we were in a lot of competitive games with the starters learning a new system. They stayed in the game late, often. There was no need to develop replacements because everyone returned.
This year (should have) fewer competitive games and they need to start figuring out who will replace Chesson/Darboh next year.
Given the above, even if you assume the same total passing production, there should be a significantly different distribution of catches and yards.
So don't assume similar production from the top-3 receiving options, but assume more blowouts?
WRs tend to accumulate stats in high scoring and/or competitive till late games. With a shut-down defense and (hopefully) an improved run game, Michigan may not rely on it's starting WRs as much as last year.
Manningham arguably wasnt behind Breaston. He had more catches and yards than Breaston did. Mario was more the #2 WR than Breaston was. And that season the three TE (Ecker/Massaquoi/Massey) combined for 40 receptions. Last season they combined for 70. The #3 WR can certainly produce, but things are a little different in the passing game then when Mario was around.
reasonable to think Perry could be.
August 9th, 2016 at 12:50 PM ^
Running back is also the position at which a true freshman is most likely to be able to contribute. Doesn't require blocking or fighting the blocks of large humans like the line positions do and to some extent linebacker, doesn't have nearly the volume of possible patterns/responsibilities that a receiver or DB does, and of course, QB is quite difficult.
Henne had a mediocre-to-OK freshman season (6.9 yards per attempt) despite throwing to one of the most dominant Michigan receivers ever in Braylon Edwards. And he's probably considered one of the best true freshman QBs of the past 20 years. Even Matt Stafford, who obviously developed into a #1 overall pick, had a terrible freshman season (52.7% completions, 6.8 ypa, 7 TD, 13 int). True freshman QBs rarely deliver plus performance.
True freshmen at other positions have a better shot at contributing, but our roster is so veteran-heavy at most other positions that I'd be surprised if many of them had a significant role, other than Rashan Gary and maybe one of the LBs.
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August 9th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^
given the Sr-laden make up of this team, all I want to hear is "NO INJURIES"
August 9th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^
I wouldn't mind hearing "Brandon Peters has a shot" if it's followed up with something like "no srs you guys, he looks better than most actual starting QBs in the country."
However, I remember the terror I felt when they announced he was starting the first game over Gutierrez. I'd rather not have that feeling this season.
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August 9th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^
Harbaugh made it clear at media day that they were both expected to be starters Not just Newsome as Brian said. From the front page two days ago.
Can you talk about the offensive line and the development of Grant Newsome and the ability to close games out, maybe pick up a first down late in the game and how that’s going to develop for you?
“Feel good. Feel confident with the way Grant performed last year as a true freshman. Also his contribution and performance in spring ball. He gives great effort, has talent. We know him right now as a starting offensive lineman. We’ll go into preseason practices with him at left tackle and Mason Cole at center and we’ll eventually get to our five best. There’s others that may not be on the first string right now that have the license and ability to compete and maybe take one of the starting positions away from somebody that’s on the line. It’ll be a meritocracy of preseason fall camp.”
August 9th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^
JH starts out schmoozing Newsome on his effort and talent; and then at the end of the his comments drops the "meritocracy" word.
I think the gist is that IF somebody (i.e. Kugler) turns out to be a better option at his position than Mags, Braden, Kalis are at theirs, then Cole would move to take the place of the displaced starter.
This is the same idea that Brian and Ace expressed in the post-Spring podcast. They hoped Kugler was the 6th-best lineman on the team -- so that Cole could move to replace any other injured starter (/knock on wood)
Grammar police - please note that "I are a Engineer" and really struggled on placing an apostrophe on "theirs" above to show ownership. Correct usage notes are appreciated.
No apostrophe needed. "Theirs" is a possessive pronoun already indicating ownership.
August 10th, 2016 at 12:40 AM ^
He was suppose to challenge for starting center position the past 2 seasons and I always kept hearing how talented he was at center. Now I don't hear his name mentioned much at all.
August 9th, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^
(from Mayo Clinic website:) While a posterior cruciate ligament injury generally causes less pain, disability and knee instability than does an ACL tear, it can still sideline you for several weeks or months.
August 9th, 2016 at 12:50 PM ^
I hope there is a FB with running skills that emerges.
Bobby Henderson is a sneakily important player for this offense. He's the only fullback who has the squat frame (about 6'0, 250 lbs) that most inline fullbacks have (Kerridge was exactly that height and weight, Houma was about 6', 240). Both Poggi (6'4) and Hill (6'2) might be just a little too long to fill that role, not to mention that neither has ever carried the ball.
I'm curious too to see how well Hill transitions to fullback.
It would be nice if the transfer, Michael Hirsch, could add some things to the mix.
August 9th, 2016 at 12:57 PM ^
Nice article, but basically it doesn't matter what we hear so long as it's not an injury. Harbaugh will not say much of anything. What the Mblog people need to do is to get into the stadium by any means necessary and tell us what they see!
Regarding the OL, I'd also like to hear positive vibes from Cole at center. I'm no football guy, but C seems very different from LT, especially pre-snap. I want to hear that Cole is capable of recognizing responsibilities, blitzes, reads, etc, etc. Enough can't be said about the leadership of the center for the entire OL. I think Cole is the right guy for the job. I just would like some affirmation before the games start.
I would love to see this OL finally click, and run block as well as they pass block.
Final note. Thank you for mentioning depth concerns at WR. We're still waiting to see if Ways and Harris can produce in real games. If anything happens to Chesson or Darboh, our passing game will struggle, no matter who wins the QB job.
Overall, I'm a 8.5/10 on our offense this year. Veteran OL. Veteran skill players. Play calling and coaching like nobody has seen before. Preparation for our offense is impossible.
No injuries at OL or WR though. K. Thanks. Good? Good.
GO BLUE! FOOOOOOTBALLLLLLLLL
Did anyone else see "things you don't want to hear" and immediately jump past it in each section? I DON'T WANT TO HEAR IT! LALALALALA!!!
I'm not disputing that this isn't good news, but I wonder if Chase is being undersold a bit here. It's his first year at DE but he's not one of the players bouncing around the roster/field to see if he fits somewhere a la Norfleet, Canteen, Morris. He was pulled from a thin LB corps to stock the TE position as quickly as possible, along with Gentry. Both of them have a lot of physical upside. Meaning, Harbaugh wasn't looking for warm bodies at TE; he was looking for dudes.
According to Chase himself, Mattison recruited him to DL with the expectation to "do everything, now". Brown said the DL is 8-9 deep; I doubt that's a bluff because there's nothing to gain at this point in time and this staff has shown to be publicly blunt about shortcomings if they think it'll motivate the players. He's not going to be at Taco's level, but I don't get the vibe that he's a stopgap either. He's expected to make plays. Again, it's not great news by any means, but that Newsome couldn't stop him isn't a shock. I'm more worried that Newsome couldn't stop anybody in the Spring Game.
I don't think Winovich was moved to TE, it was probably a typo on the list (as has been said several times, including by Brian). And I would like to agree that him blowing by Newsone isn't so much a knock on Newsome as a plus on Winovich. That said, I can't see Chase's technique being Taco-level in the Spring, what with it being his third position in three years (or something like that). Newsome, even as a rookie, should have been able to slow down a position-nomad after a full Spring (and presumaby winter/summer) as the LT.
He was moved to TE last season. That's why there is a typo on the list, it came from last year and it didnt get changed. He played TE in the 2015 Spring Game and was given a shot there. Now he is back on defense and playing on the line.
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August 10th, 2016 at 9:16 AM ^
That's true....but Winovich was literally listed as a TE on the roster last season: 2015 Roster. That's why there was the typo of him being listed as a TE instead of DE, it was just copied from last year.
Here's a video of Chase talking about moving to TE before last year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QD8J89Tvx0Q
This season can't start soon enough. So pumped for opening day. OMG so pumped...
It's Tuesday afternoon. If you're not rounding that down to 3 1/2 weeks, then something's wrong with you.
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I mean...They did go 12-1. Granted, as you note, they had some QB problems. But they lost on a last-second play and demolished ND in the bowl game (as well as us). I'll take the results of their 2-QB system 99% of the time!
There was an HTTV article a while back (I think) that showed that how good a team (or offense?) was depended on experience at wide receiver. I found it surprising. That's not exactly the same thing as all freshman receivers suck; on the other hand, I think I need a little more evidence that I shouldn't expect contributions from receivers than the counter examples people have come up with.
I really like the format of this post.
August 9th, 2016 at 10:29 PM ^
The offense should not have any excuses (ie comments that were stated for the OL last year). Highly recruited, high on game expereince and high # of upperclassmen throughout. I wonder how many teams in the country can match us on those levels.
The OL was disappointing last year, compared to how they finished in 2014. They increassd in expereince and numbers like few other teams in 2015 after pushing the OSU DL as good as some playoff teams in 2014.
Enter 2015 which strated out good, and ended relatively poorly. No one dared say anything lest the hand of God or one of His disciples try to throw Holy Water on you for such blasphemy.
Enter 2016. even MORE expereince and MORE available talent (unprecidented 2nd stratight year of losing essentially no one, sans Glascow). Potentially unprecidented, but at teh very least, very, very rare....
. After seeing us roll on Flordia (finally looking like an OL worthy of theri recruiting level and talent)., I can't see us anything but excelling on the OL.
I saw this in 2012/13 when we were racking up OL talent. It was a matter of time. These past 2 years were the rewarrd for that recruiting. The two previous years revealed the errors in recruiting in 2010/11.
Stand back defenses. Plow coming through.
August 10th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^
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