Doug Nussmeier, Quarterback Guru Comment Count

Ace


How much can Devin Gardner benefit from the change in OCs? Quite a bit, it appears.

Before new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier entered the coaching ranks, he was a Walter Payton Award winner (best I-AA player) as a quarterback for Idaho under the tutelage of John L. Smith and Scott Linehan before playing five seasons in the NFL and one in the CFL. After retiring as a player following the 2000 season, he spent two years as a quarterbacks coach in the CFL before taking the same position at Michigan State for his old coach, Smith.

Ever since, Nussmeier's coaching responsibilities have included working with quarterbacks, and like Al Borges he'll serve as his own QB coach at Michigan. While that arrangement didn't work out so well for Borges—who, notably, didn't have the playing pedigree of Nussmeier—there's a lot of evidence to suggest it'll go a lot better this time around. Here's a look at each of Nussmeier's coaching stops, starting with MSU, and how his quarterbacks fared under his tutelage.

Michigan State (QB Coach, 2003-2005)

John L. Smith hired Nussmeier in 2003, Jeff Smoker's senior year following a junior campaign in which he was suspended the final five games for substance abuse-related issues.

Below are the numbers for Nussmeier's starting QBs at MSU, including the years immediately prior to and following his time there. What we see from his time at East Lansing will come up again at future stops:

MICHIGAN STATE Cmp Att Pct Yds YPA TD INT Eff
2002 (Smoker, Jr.) 114 203 56.2 1593 7.8 13 10 133.4
2003 (Smoker, Sr.) 302 488 61.9 3395 7.0 21 14 128.8
2004 (Stanton, So.) 141 220 64.1 1601 7.3 8 6 131.8
2005 (Stanton, Jr.) 236 354 66.7 3077 8.7 22 12 153.4
2006 (Stanton, Sr.) 164 269 61.0 1807 6.7 12 10 124.7

Smoker's senior-year numbers don't leap off the page, but they do exhibit one trend in Nussmeier's quarterback coaching: when he takes charge, interception rates fall. While Smoker threw 14 picks in 2003, he did so on 226 more attempts than he had in any other season, and his 2.9% interception rate was a career best.

Drew Stanton's numbers are muddled by injuries in each of his three seasons as the starter; even so, the huge strides he made under Nussmeier from his sophomore to junior seasons are apparent—his completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and overall efficiency all improved even with a significant uptick in attempts. Perhaps even more indicative of Nussmeier's skill with QBs is Stanton's huge dropoff when his coach moved on—not the last time this would happen after Nussmeier left a job. Stanton's quote to Angelique Chengelis after Michigan hired Nussmeier really stands out after looking at the numbers:

“Doug Nussmeier is everything as advertised and more,” Stanton told The News Wednesday night. “He has an unbelievable approach to the game that demands a lot out of his players but also has a way of making every day fun. He represents what college football should be all about. He’s going to make a great head coach some day, and I wouldn’t be where I am today without him. I was literally in tears when he left my junior year at Michigan State.

Are there mitigating factors here? Absolutely. Smoker's lost 2002 season makes it difficult to parse out how much of his senior-year resurgence was due to coaching, while Stanton's injuries in his sophomore and senior seasons (remember LaMarr Woodley?) impacted his performance in those years. Stanton's outstanding junior year is still hard to ignore, however, especially once it's put in the context of Nussmeier's other coaching stops.

[Hit THE JUMP for Nussmeier's other stops, including Marc Bulger's Last Stand and the transformations of Keith Price and AJ McCarron.]

St. Louis Rams (QB Coach, 2006-2007)

Nussmeier left his former head coach (Smith) to work under his former offensive coordinator (Linehan) in the same capacity at the NFL level, getting a Pro Bowl season out of a 29-year-old Marc Bulger before injuries sabotaged the 2007 season.

ST. LOUIS (NFL) Cmp Att Pct Yds YPA TD INT Rating
2005 (Bulger, 28) 192 287 66.9 2297 8.0 14 9 94.4
2006 (Bulger, 29) 370 588 62.9 4301 7.3 24 8 92.9
2007 (Bulger, 30) 221 378 58.5 2392 6.3 11 15 70.3
2008 (Bulger, 31) 251 440 57.0 2720 6.2 11 13 71.4

Bugler's 2006 season was his best as a pro; he also made the Pro Bowl in 2003, his second NFL season, in the high-flying Mike Martz offense, but he did so while throwing as many interceptions (22) as touchdowns. Under Nussmeier, Bulger recorded a career-low 1.4% INT rate in 2006—good for second in the NFL—despite playing behind a patchwork O-line that gave up the second-most sacks in the league. The next year, both Bulger and his offensive line suffered a litany of injuries and the team collapsed, going 3-13. While Nussmeier left for the OC job at Fresno State in 2008, Linehan and Bulger butted heads; the Rams fired Linehan after an 0-4 start, while Bulger was out of the league within two years, never coming close to replicating his 2006 season.

Fresno State (OC/QBs, 2008)

While the wheels fell off in St. Louis, Nussmeier spent one season as the offensive coordinator and QB coach for Fresno State under Pat Hill. This is Nussmeier's lone stop in which his quarterback—senior Tom Brandstater—didn't improve statistically.

FRESNO STATE Cmp Att Pct Yds YPA TD INT Eff

2007 (Brandstater, Jr.)

211 337 62.6 2654 7.9 15 5 140.5
2008 (Brandstater, Sr.) 221 371 59.6 2664 7.2 18 12 129.4

Brandstater—a notoriously inconsistent QB—was playing for his fourth offensive coordinator in four years at Fresno, which certainly didn't help matters. Nussmeier did help him become a 6th-round NFL draft pick—Brandstater bounced between five teams without ever making a pro impact—and scouting reports indicate that he improved at going through his progressions, standing out in that regard at the NFL Combine. How much that had to do with Nussmeier is very difficult to tell given the one-year sample here.

Washington (OC/QBs, 2009-2011)

This is where the data starts to get pretty exciting. Nussmeier took the OC/QB position at Washington under Steve Sarkisian in 2009, when Jake Locker headed into his junior season after losing most of his sophomore campaign to a broken thumb. I've included his freshman-year stats to better portray his improvement under Nussmeier.

WASHINGTON Cmp Att Pct Yds YPA TD INT Eff
2007 (Locker, Fr.) 155 328 47.3 2062 6.3 14 15 105.0
2008 (Locker, So.) 50 93 53.8 512 5.5 1 0 103.6
2009 (Locker, Jr.) 230 394 58.4 2800 7.1 21 11 130.1
2010 (Locker, Sr.) 184 332 55.4 2265 6.8 17 9 124.2
2011 (Price, So.) 242 362 66.9 3063 8.5 33 11 161.9
2012 (Price, Jr.) 263 432 60.9 2728 6.3 19 13 122.4

Locker went from much-hyped athletic curiosity to the presumed #1 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, then surprised pundits by returning to Washington for his senior season. While Locker's numbers took a slight dip that year, which caused draftniks to project him as a second- or third-round prospect, Locker believed that a hard look at his senior film would display the type of improvement worthy of a first-round selection:

Now Locker is in the strange position of defending himself against the perception that he cost himself the No. 1 slot. He's weathered criticism of his play by accepting responsibility, even when other factors, such as a so-so receiving corps, were often at fault. Not only did he play most of the season with a broken rib and bruised quad, he also rebounded from the loss to Nebraska by beating the Huskers in the Holiday Bowl. He's convinced he's better prepared for having put up good numbers in a pro-style offense rather than great numbers in the spread, the system used by Newton and Gabbert. And just because he didn't turn pro when his stock was highest doesn't mean he won't be a better quarterback. "Success will come quicker because I played my senior year," he says. "The smart evaluators can see that."

Most do. On the heels of Locker's strong combine and further examination of all of his game performances, The Magazine's three experts admit they'd consider taking him in the first round despite having graded him lower.

Tennessee chose Locker with the 8th overall pick. After playing sparingly as a rookie, he's started 18 games for the Titans in the last two seasons, with his 2013 campaign cut short by a foot injury.

Then there's Keith Price, perhaps the best example of Nussmeier's deft hand with quarterbacks. After redshirting in 2009 and spending 2010 backing up Locker, Price posted the seventh-best passer efficiency in the country in 2011, his first year as a starter. Nussmeier departed for Alabama after that season, and Price's numbers fell off a cliff. While local scribes attributed a good deal of Price's dropoff to poor offensive line play, that argument doesn't hold water after looking at the numbers: UW posted an ugly 7.8% sack rate in 2011, and that number rose only slightly—to just under 8.0%—the next season. While Price had a major bounceback year as a senior, his sophomore-year completion percentage, yards, yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and overall efficiency still stand as career-highs.

Alabama (OC/QB, 2012-2013)

ALABAMA Cmp Att Pct Yds YPA TD INT Eff
2011 (McCarron, So.) 219 328 66.8 2634 8.0 16 5 147.3
2012 (McCarron, Jr.) 211 314 67.2 2933 9.3 30 3 175.3
2013 (McCarron, Sr.) 226 336 67.3 3063 9.1 28 7 167.2

AJ McCarron's story should be familiar to you all; after being Nick Saban's proverbial game manager as a sophomore, Nussmeier helped transform him into a brutally efficient downfield passer in his final two seasons at Alabama. While the Tide's SBNation site, RollBamaRoll, isn't sure how much to credit Nussmeier, it's apparent that he played a major role in McCarron's leap to Heisman contention:

The 2011 version of McCarron would have a difficult time throwing the ball down the deep middle of the field, but the 2012 and 2013 versions have thrived in this area. He still lacks elite arm strength, but his mechanics are much improved – along with ability to go through his progressions and deliver the football on time, even to his third or fourth option. Once again, it’s nothing more than a guessing game when it comes to trying to determining how much of his progression is due to Nussmeier. Some natural progression is to be expected, and, over the summer, McCarron has a quarterback coach. But Nussmeier, as the quarterback’s coach, works very closely with the quarterbacks during the spring and throughout the season, so I certainly believe he deserves some amount of credit.

Improvement from sophomore first-year starter to experienced junior is to be expected, of course; it's still difficult to look at the above numbers, especially in the context of Nussmeier's overall resume, without a good deal of excitement for Michigan's future at quarterback. The noted improvement in decision-making and reading defenses by Nussmeier quarterbacks is a very positive indicator for Devin Gardner's potential as a senior returning starter, not to mention the growth Shane Morris should undergo over the next three years. From a quarterback-coaching standpoint, it's hard to look at this as anything but a home-run hire.

Comments

BlueMan80

January 13th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^

Connects well with the players, solid recruiter, proven success grooming QBs, and offenses that can move the ball.  He seems like a guy that develops players and Michigan certainly has the raw talent in place that can develop into an effective offense.  My concern last year was that Borges was constantly messing with the blocking schemes/line-up in a desperate attempt to find something that worked.  Not a good idea with young players still adapting to the speed and complexity of the college game.  Sounds like Nuss understands they need a solid base scheme and should build from there.  Rep it until you've got it and no gimmicks like "tackle over".  It's too bad Devin will only get one season with Nuss and yet another coach to work with, but it should be all for the best.  It will be interesting to compare Morris vs. McCarron over their careers, because Shane has an arm any QB would die for.  Shane's future looks really bright and I'm sure Speight is excited about working with Nuss, too.

MGoUberBlue

January 13th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^

Which also confirms my thoughts during the Denard years that the less-talented Drew Stanton continued to improve as a quarterback, particularly from Soph. to Junior seasons while DR continued to regress as a QB with bad decisions and turnovers.

Then we saw the same lack of progression with DG in 2013.

There is no question but that Denard was an incredible talent as a running QB but the concept of leading the team as a QB continued to elude him.

It now makes sense as one looks at the statistics that you provided in such a cogent manner.  Coaching does matter and Borges simply did not seem to capably provide a sense of direction to our two very talented athletes in the last three years.

JLi5

January 13th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^

It would be informative to see what these numbers mean in the context of average expected So-Jr improvement as a starter, as Ace acknowledges.  I think we can assume he would do well in that metric, but it might put things in better perspective.  I can't help but feel that the general tenor of attributing a lot of these QB improvements mostly to Nuss may be overly optimistic.  I seem to be a lot more ambivlanet about the hire compared to most.  However, I definitely agree that the lack of progression with Robinson and Gardner (statistically) is telling.  My exceitement comes more from the standpoint that an improvement in this coaching position from setting historically bad records up to at least sufficient is plenty of reason enough for excitement.

Now if only there was an easy fix for the O-line...

pasadenablue

January 13th, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^

While local scribes attributed a good deal of Price's dropoff to poor offensive line play, that argument doesn't hold water after looking at the numbers: UW posted an ugly 7.8% sack rate in 2011, and that number rose only slightly—to just under 8.0%—the next season.

 

 

Trust the local scribes on this one.  I live in Seattle, and have watched the Huskies closely since 2010.  That O-line in 2012 was absolutely horrid.  As in atrocious.  It might have been worse than Michigan's line this year in terms of pass blocking.  Price was literally running scared after the snap most games.

The sack rate was bad in 2011 because Price had a bad habit of holding on to the ball too long.

Go back and watch some of the film.  You'll see how bad that Husky O-line was in 2012...

 

http://www.uwdawgpound.com/2013/2/15/3987446/season-grades-2012-offensive-line

UMaD

January 13th, 2014 at 2:49 PM ^

Bringing in the before and after seasons is good stuff.  The interpretations of circumstances and mitigating factors also seem reasonable.  Nice work Ace.

The one thing that concerns me is the Fresno State experience.  I have no doubt that if we hire Nuss last year he'd have turned Gardner into a much better QB, but in one year left, it's a tougher job.  He did do it with Smoker, but its unclear how much of it was coaching.

As others have mentioned, Gardner was already pretty good (as were most of the other QBs Nuss coached).  The bigger issue is if he can get the OL playing to a competant level which has more to do with approach, play-calling, scheme, and player development.

As a QB coach, his track record is excellent.  As an OC, he has Washington - where Sarkisian may have played a big role and Alabama - where talent played a big role.  If he succeeds at Michigan he'll be bonafide as an OC and ready to take on a HC challenge or NFL job.

Sledgehammer

January 13th, 2014 at 3:14 PM ^

As some have made the comment of Nuss replacing Hoke in 3-5 years doesnt really seem resonable, the long term picture would make more sense. Nuss will likely only be here 2-3 years depending on well and fast he turns around the offense before he moves on to a lower level HC position. Hoke, if he can get us winning on a more consistent basis, will be around for maybe 8-10 more years. At that point Nuss could be looked at as a replacement as he will have HC experience and considered a Michigan Man as he spent some time here.

CoachBP6

January 13th, 2014 at 7:08 PM ^

I believe Nuss will tailor the offnse around all of Devin's strengths.  I really think the sky is the limit for DG in 2014.

ca_prophet

January 13th, 2014 at 7:30 PM ^

One of the reasons I was against replacing the OC was the belief we couldn't get anyone clearly better. Nuss is clearly better by resume, so kudos to Hoke et al. Nuss also gets high ratings from former players, so he should be able to connect with our guys and teach them the way they learn best. (That's always a possibility when you're dealing with people, but it shouldn't be a problem here.) My remaining concerns revolve around the O-line and the cost of transitions on player development. We should - hopefully! - have picked someone whose nitty-gritty details aren't that different, leading to someone who can get his scheme in place while improving the players in tune with our expectations, but that isn't always the case. The fear is that the new scheme takes time that the players can't spend refining technique, etc. and hence won't improve the way you'd expect, say, a former five star guard going from his redshirt sophomore to redshirt junior years. If that happens on the O Line we're sunk. Slam dunk hire on paper. Let's see what happens on the field.

UMgradMSUdad

January 13th, 2014 at 8:51 PM ^

I seem to recall a thread from a couple years ago that showed the leap QBs took with Borges from their first to second year.  If nothing else, I do see Nussmeier as an upgrade in at least these two areas though 1) He is a former QB: that gives him a level of insight and credibility that I'm not sure a non-QB can ever quite achieve, and 2) he is on the sidelines during the game--not up in the booth. A former college QB is a sports radio host here in Oklahoma, and he was asked about QB coaches and OCs, and the one thing he said is that, for him at least, there was no substitute for having a coach on the sideline to give immediate feedback, advice, pep talk, and that talking over a phone to a coach up in the booth just was not nearly as effective. 

Perd Hapley

January 13th, 2014 at 9:52 PM ^

Anyone who is even close to questioning this hire. Do what Colin Cowherd says and "say it out loud". 3 years ago Saban and Alabama thought he was good enough to hire as OC. That's good enough for me.

WolverineLake

January 13th, 2014 at 10:26 PM ^

  Definitely seems like a home run hire.  I'm sure we are all being too optimistic, but man things are starting to look just rosey.

  I am really looking forward to seeing what Gardner will be able to accomplish.  Nuss knows how to use a spread, dual threat QB and will implement some downhill running to take some pressure off of him.  Nuss should be able to really help Gardner with his reads and interception woes, and get those running backs a little room to cover some yards.  

  Gardner is a smart, hardworking dude.  It's going to be a great year for him and the team.