Delta V Insufficient To Prevent Re-Entry
1/13/2017 – Michigan 2, Minnesota 5 – 1-4 Big Ten, 8-10-1 overall
1/14/2017 – Michigan 2, Minnesota 4 – 1-5 Big Ten, 8-11-1 overall
[Patrick Barron]
Here are Michigan's shot margins since December started: –10, –19, –9, –16, –16, –20, –35, –19. The good news, such as it is, is that Michigan managed to win two of those games. One was against Michigan State in overtime. The other was a 2-1 win against Wisconsin before two ENGs. Michigan got outshot 35-19. This is not just bad. This is astoundingly bad.
If you prefer a grizzled hockey veteran offering up the eye test, color guys at both games this weekend were clearly upset—even depressed—about what was going on in front of their eyes. On the Minnesota-centric Fox Sports North broadcast, Ben Clymer said that "this just wasn't the same Michigan team" they're used to seeing. He was probably feeling the same way I was, having just seen the season's most exciting series—Michigan-Minnesota on the big ice—reduced to a methodical execution. I've felt that way about Michigan State, of late. It is not the same when Ryan Miller is a faint memory and the present day is all pratfalls.
I didn't catch who the BTN guy was on Friday, but I think it might have been alum Sean Ritchlin. If so his extended lament about Michigan's complete lack of a defensive system bites even deeper. No matter who it was, you don't often see that kind of pointed criticism from announcers. Usually they default to talking about how young a team is, which, yep, happened a bunch on Friday.
This is the wrong age-related malady to cite. It's inescapable now: Red Berenson's in the twilight of his career and has hung on too long.
The slide has been gradual but it's also been a long time coming. The last Michigan team that felt truly elite was the 2007-08 squad that made the Frozen Four and was downed by Nickelback and Creed in the semis. The 2010-11 team that made the national title game was driven by Sean Hunwick's absurd save percentage. The semi against North Dakota saw Michigan outshot 2 to 1; it felt worse than that. It felt like being hunted.
Hunwick barely got them to the tournament the next year and they broke the streak the year after; in the five-years post Hunwick their conference record is 44-41-8. Last year's incredible pile of talent got them to the second round of the tourney, where they were once again outshot 2 to 1 by North Dakota. Michigan hasn't played an even game against the artists formerly known as Sioux in over a decade. Now they can't play an even game against anybody.
It's never been this bad; the arrow has been pointing this direction for a long time.
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Now what? I don't know. I hope there are some tough conversations that take place and there's a new coach next year. I worry that won't happen because the narrative around the program often doesn't make any sense.
If you've paid close attention over the past few years you've seen Berenson throw Andrew Copp under the bus after his NHL departure. (Copp played 77 games his rookie year.) You've heard the rumor that Red stayed on another year because Warde Manuel asked him to. Even if this is true, Berenson could have said three words—"hire Mel, bye"—and resolved this impasse.
You'd think this would be the end of the road, but since the end of the road should have come a few years ago and did not there is a chance this will continue. You see it when a coach becomes synonymous with a program and nobody can tell him it's over. Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden are the prime exemplars. Those regimes had upward blips that were just enough ammunition to say "he's still got it" amidst a steady long-term decline, and ending them was either a nasty fight (Bowden) or only triggered by something unthinkable (Paterno).
I think the hockey program is unlikely to dig out without a new coach; I think a nasty fight might be necessary despite Mel Pearson hanging around; I don't know if Manuel has the stomach for a nasty fight, especially at a program that doesn't drive the revenue bus. At some point a football coach has to go because of the financial imperatives. That is not the case in hockey.
Maybe this is just a one year thing, as they say it is, and a new era can start next year. But I've been hearing that a change is imminent for seven years now. I'm worried it won't happen, and that's the thing that sucks most of all: Red Berenson, the guy who created Michigan hockey out of whole cloth, might keep damaging his legacy by returning. Time makes beggars of us all.
January 16th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^
So basically everyone is just turning on Warde now. OK. Must have missed that memo from the local armchair athletics administrators.
January 16th, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
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January 16th, 2017 at 3:46 PM ^
January 16th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
Particularly when things like "fire well-respected coach" are not things that are done during a season.
January 16th, 2017 at 2:35 PM ^
Schembechler voluntarily stepped down after the '89 season, and aside from getting fucked yet again by the refs in the Rose Bowl, it was a damn good year. We were conference champs and went into the RB ranked #3. Nobody would have tried to force Bo out, but he was smart enough to know that time takes its toll on the body and the mind, and just as important, he wanted to give Gary a chance to run the program himself.
Red should have done the same thing five years ago—turn the reins over to Mel, who had coached faithfully by his side for years.
My armchair guess is that it's Red's ego—like it was with Bowden and Paterno—that is screwing things up. These men are so used to being the alpha dog in charge that it's unthinkable to them to step aside and yield all that power. Stepping aside is psychologically feared as a tacit admission that you're old and your productive life is over. I can sympathize with those fears, but it's far worse to tarnish what you've built.
January 16th, 2017 at 3:19 PM ^
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January 16th, 2017 at 3:32 PM ^
That's nuts. By comparison, Bo stepped down at the age of 60.
January 16th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
Keep in mind Bo stepped down from coaching because it was going to literally kill him. He essentially died on the table in '87. Bo at 60 was far less stable than Red at 77, from a health perspective.
January 16th, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^
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January 16th, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^
January 16th, 2017 at 4:11 PM ^
Over the last 10 years, Red has declined mentally. He's just not the same guy.
The guy has been coaching hockey since 1979 and he has not lived for 1 day without hockey being part of his life. It would not surprise me if he's hanging on because he's scared of what comes next.
January 16th, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
I posted this on Saturday's thread for the 1st game against Minnesota but I'll post it here as well for anyone who is curious on the new names (current commits) to look for heading into next year and how well they have done so far this year.
Kenny Johnson, D, 6-2 200, Penticton Vees (BCHL)
GP-G-A-P
31-2-5-7
Michael Pastujov, F, 6-0 185, USNPD U-18
GP-G-A-P
26-4-5-9
Dakota Raabe, F, 5-9 175, Wenatchee Wild (BCHL)
GP-G-A-P
41-14-21-35
Gustaf Westlund, F, 5-11 170, Lincoln Stars (USHL)
GP-G-A-P
31-4-18-22
Lukas Samuelsson, F, 6-0 165, Toronto Predators (GMHL)
GP-G-A-P
33-20-12-32
Stats via team websites, http://www.hockeydb.com/ and http://www.eliteprospects.com/ as of Saturday, January 15th
January 16th, 2017 at 4:32 PM ^
Kenny Johnson probably won't be in next year's class. They will have Josh Norris, who is a really good forward recruit, Quinn Hughes on the blueline is also really good.
Mike Pastujov is probably the best recruit in the class. He would have gone #1 in the OHL draft if he wasn't coming here and had a 1st round NHL grade until he hurt his shoulder and missed all of last year and some of this year.
January 16th, 2017 at 6:08 PM ^
As far as I saw, those two are commited for the 2018-2019 season but i'll take you at your word for it since college hockey recruiting is not as publicized as basketball and football and guys always bump up or down classes. I do agree though, I'm excited for Quinn Hughes
For the sake of more stat breakdowns, lets say they're in the 2018-19 class with these folks:
Josh Norris (F) 6-1 190 (USNTDP U-18 - USHL/USDP)
GP-G-A-PTS
47-19-20-39
Blade Jenkins (F) 6-0 170 (USNTDP U-18 - USHL/USDP)
GP-G-A-PTS
48-2-4-6
Jack Randl (F) 5-11 175 (Omaha Lancers - USHL)
GP-G-A-PTS
31-5-3-8
Calen Kiefiuk (F) 5-8 175 (Bloomington Thunder - USHL)
GP-G-A-PTS
27-2-4-6
Quintin Hughes (D) 5-9 168 (USNTDP U-18 - USHL/USDP)
GP-G-A-PTS
51-5-37-42
Jacob Semik (D) 6-0 155 (Dubuque Fighting Saints USHL/USNTDP U-17 - USHL/USDP)
GP-G-A-PTS
18-4-3-7
Dylan St. Cyr (G) 5-8 160 (USNTDP U-18 - USHL/USDP)
GP-GAA-SV%
38-2.54-.907
Stats via: http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=803&year0=2019&status=stats
January 16th, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
Red is a legend and it's time to say thank you. I watched the game on TV Friday night because I was going to the game Saturday and wanted to be familiar with Minnesota's team. Turns out, Minnesota basically brought back the same team which beat Michigan last year. Friday night was ugly.
Then Saturday came. I was sitting in a section with 20+ year Gopher ticket holders. It started with the Minnesota nice fan conversations with comments about Michigan still being a dangerous team and they expected a good game tonight. As the game progressed and it was clear Michigan didn't belong on the same ice, the comments shifted to legitimate pity and befuddlement while people asked me what happened to this team.
A nice woman in-front of me turned around after the first Minnesota goal and said I feel your pain, I'm cheering for Michigan too. We never spoke again the rest of the night. Despite the final score, it was never close (except for a 2-3 minute stretch in the third period after Michigan scored two very lucky goals).
By the middle of the third period after Jack LaFontaine got peppered with yet another dead-on open shot from 10 - 20 feet you could tell the whole arena felt bad for the kid. There were literally gasps and oh-s and ah's for how hard he was getting hit with the puck again and again.
It's bad folks. It's bad.
January 16th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^
I bought tickets to the Minny game in March just so I can say I saw one of Red's final games at Yost. Will be extra annoyed if he hangs on for that reason.
January 16th, 2017 at 3:49 PM ^
I don't understand what the coaching staff is doing.
They're coaching this team like they have Andrew Cogliano and Carl Hagelin. This team is not fast and they're nowhere near fast enough to play Red's style. Red has not made one single adjustment to play to the strength of what he has.
January 16th, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^
Brian impies that Red is hanging on because he wants to. I got the impression that he was asked to because Warde had other things to deal with first. This is a tough situation for anyone, but that's why the AD needs to build a relationship with the coach and then try to step in and handle it. We saw it almost work with Carr, but not quite. The stages:
- Performance slips
- Recruiting slips, imperceptably at first with some stars but lacking the core foundation
- Attrition starts popping up at a higher rate for coaches/players
- Attendance wanes
- People stop caring as much
Carr went though severall of those stages, but 2006 was a spark. He probably would have retired that year if we beat OSU. I think Red has to realize that he can't recruit top kids when he keeps hanging around a year at a time and the program needs a spark. Leave now while he still is in good standing so he can help with the transition.
January 16th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
Red said he wanted to retire after the 09 season and if they beat UMD he would have.
He also said that if he wasn't the right guy to run the program he would step down, which he never did.
He's had like 5 chances to walk and he always stays.
January 16th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^
January 16th, 2017 at 5:11 PM ^
January 16th, 2017 at 4:41 PM ^
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January 16th, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^
I believe it was an old wooden ship used in the Civil War era
January 16th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^
January 16th, 2017 at 7:00 PM ^
http://www.shippedia.com/vessels-name-list.php?n=HUNWICK
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January 16th, 2017 at 5:10 PM ^
I love Red for all he's done over his career. Hes won the National Championship and built a national power. Well we arent anymore, Brian's right. he has stayed on too long and we are in a full decline. This was recognized at the end of last season!! To top it off, we have a natural, tailor-made, ready to take over sucessor in Tech's Mel Pearson, and he would take his "dream job" the Continuity would be assured. Step down and retire Red. You have done a great career but sadly each year you hang on just tarnishes it further. Please, for the love of God and the school you love, step aside, rest and let Mel take over next year!
January 16th, 2017 at 5:19 PM ^
wouldnt this be the same as if we lost every B1G game in hoops by 15-20 points, even to Northwestern Illinois Penn State, and lost by 25-30 pts to Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Purdue? we dont have enough talent and cant compete, and lets remember the B1G league is down!! MSU is pathetic, Minny and WIscy not the national powerhouses they have been in the past!
January 16th, 2017 at 9:40 PM ^
January 17th, 2017 at 11:14 AM ^
really is sad today. Red has needed to retire for 3-4 years and turn the program over to someone else. The guy is a legend but someone really needs to just sit down with him and say it's time to go. I have felt for a while he doesn't really connect with these young players anymore and it looks that way during games as there seems to be a lack of interest and they continually make the same mistakes.
I really hope if Red isn't planning to leave on his own accord that Manuel sits down with him soon and spells it out for him. Time to bring back Mel or some other young up and coming coach to breathe new life into this program.
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