chance of bowl: 13.6%
It's been a while, so let's hop right in to the Diaries.
Shockingly, MCalibur had never been the Diarist of the Week [-type period -ed]... until now. I'll start with his chart-heavy "Judging Play Success" diary:
That chart breaks down the likelihood of achieving first down on a given series, given the down-and distance breakdowns. MCalibur is a lot better at explaining it than I am, so check out the diary for the full details. El Jeffe did some similar work focusing on 1st-down yardage.
MCalibur's other diaries in this time period are concerned with quarterback performance, how to measure it, how to predict improvement from one year to the next (and looking at a couple quarterbacks of note for next year). This all culminated with the outstanding "Dilithium Bloom," which discussed what we might be able to expect out of one Denard Xavier Robinson in the 2010 season:
The average player in this cohort went from being off-the-charts bad to exactly average; not only did the group get out of the hole,they caught up to the pack. In the prism categories [click through to the diary to understand this], about half of the players met or exceeded the 2nd Yr threshold for completion percentage, yard per attempt, and interception rate; the touchdown rate threshold was met or exceeded less often. IF HE STICKS, there is a good chance that Denard improves to a point where he’s as good this year as Tate Forcier was last year; if he sticks. That plus Dilithium. Anyone else have goose bumps?
For killin' it on a regular basis, MCalibur, you are this edition's Featured Diarist.
Six Zero continued MGoProfiling members of the community, starting with Magnus in Volume 7:
I've been on and coached some teams with all kinds of talent but poor leadership, and the results have been less than satisfactory. I learn way more about a kid by how he practices, how he treats his teammates, how he responds to coaching, and how he reacts to pressure than seeing him in class every day.
I think Wangler to Carter from Homecoming 1979 is probably the most iconic video clip of Michigan football. I was born 4 months after that game was played so I obviously have no personal memories of it. But the video speaks for itself. One last play, Carter dancing into the end zone, the crowd going insane, Bo jumping up and down, Bob Ufer screaming, “Oh my GOD!!! Carter scored!!!” and Lee Corso having a stroke on the Indiana sideline. There is nothing that is not perfect about that clip.
Volume 9 was an interview with newshound extraordinaire MGoShoe:
I consume all things Michigan so I’m always on the lookout for a good story in the MSM or one of the many fine Michigan sports blogs. There are a ton of guys doing a heck of a job giving us insights into Michigan sports that just weren’t available even a few years ago. I pick the most interesting and relevant things and mine them for repackaging on mgoblog.com.
Blue in South Bend broke down what it's like to reside in enemy territory:
I lived in East Lansing a little over 3 years after I graduated from Michigan in '05, and the Irish are far more hospitable than the Spartans. To a certain extent, I think it reflects the different complexes of the two fan bases. Where the Sparties evince an inferiority complex that would make Canada blush, the locals are more worried about how to defend their next National Championship.
BlazeFire was featured in Volume 11:
Biakabutuka was Michigan right about the time I truly started developing an interest in following Michigan in earnest, and not just on Saturdays during the season. That, and to this day, my mom still laughs saying his name.’
...and Volume 12 was an interview with yours truly:
My favorite press conference answer came from Denard Robinson, when a reporter asked him following the Eastern Michigan game if he really liked running into the South endzone (he scored going that way in the Western game too, as you may recall). His response?: "I think I scored one going this way, too [points North]." If he can live up to his tremendous physical potential, there's a good chance that he goes down in Michigan fan lore as well.
Yes, I included that portion of the interview just because I love that quote so freakin' much.
The Mathlete's frontpaged diary takes a look at good offenses, and how close Michigan is to being there. The moneyshot:
It looks like framework of what Rodriguez wants to do is in place after two rough years, but the execution is still behind his days at West Virginia. The offensive line now has two years in the system and for the first time there is a quarterback (in fact two!) who have both experience and talent. As I noted in a previous diary, a jump from average in 2009 to good in 2010 is certainly a good possibility and with a break or two and improved quarterback play, it could go from average to great.
There are charts and much more analysis, so be sure to check it out.
Expansion and the alignment of a 12-team Big Ten were huge topics over the month of June (and into July). Texas was still an option early in the month, as oakapple pointed out, and MGauxBleu said that Notre Dame's hand could be forced by Pac-10 and Big Ten threats. Hail-Storm looked at a few options for a 12-16 team conference, and stubob examined the differences in travel distance for several options.
After expansion shook out with just Nebraska joining the Big Ten, a number of people took a look at the Huskers while others tried their hands at picking division alignments in the conference. Wolverbean studied Nebraska's record against Big Ten teams, backusduo examined why they defected to the Big Ten, and M-dog told them who to hate in their new conference. stubob previewed the Huskers for Michigan fans unfamiliar with their new conference foe.
In Alignment Central, kb9704 looked at a 4-division setup, and a North-South split, before finally settling on an East-West split that he likes. oakapple (who also argued against a 9th conference game) and MaizeAndBlueWahoo looked at the importance of various conference rivalries in order to come up with some divisional suggestions. formerlyanonymous proposed pod-based divisions, Misopogon looked at divisions AND scheduling, and UMFootballCrazy insisted that geography would reign supreme in forming divisions.
lfj75 looks at how UConn performed against spread offenses last year. The verdict... not so good:
From this I conclude: yeah, UConn kind of stinks against the pass no matter what offensive scheme they're up against. But they really struggle to stop the run against teams that run from spread formations. Spread teams averaged 65 more yards per game on six fewer carries against UConn than did their old timey non-spread counterparts. That turns out to be over 2 and ½ more yards per carry on average.
That's an encouraging sign for September 4th, but the Huskies have all summer to prepare for the Spread 'n' Shred.
MGoShoe is trying to make a run at Featured Diarist for the next edition of this series, posting a number of newsbits in the diaries, including breakdowns of the Leaders and Best in 50 States series going on over at MGoBlue, the Alumni Association's upcoming behind the scenes tours of the Big House, the upcoming coverage of Big Ten Media Days (on top of what I'll be providing here, of course), the Summer Hockey Showcase, and a pair of Michigan Rowers taking home a gold medal. He also brought our attention to the fantastic 2010 schedule images available over at Spawn of MZone (Darryl Stonum pictured below).
PhillipFulmersPants looks at how Michigan's decommitments and transfers from the Classes of 2005-09 performed at their new homes this year (allow me to shamelessly plug my series on Varsity Blue last summer about some of these gentlemen). Justin Boren, Marquis Maze, Ryan Mallett, and DeQuinta Jones seem to be the biggest losses for the Wolverines.
Misopogon gave his argument for Detroit as The Ultimate Sporting City. Blazefire compares Rich Rodriguez to... John D. Rockefeller? THE_KNOWLEDGE returned to say exactly nothing. Irish filled us in on Notre Dame's personnel. JLo looks at whether student-athletes should be paid. Brhino looks at Big Ten home field advantage. HartFan explains why this is an important year for RichRod (besides "duh"). PhillipFulmersPants looks at the personnel for Big Ten passing attacks. Lordfoul gave a Father's Day ode to his dad for instilling Michigan fandom in him. Geaux_Blue shares a few photos of the stadium tours a couple weeks back.
airvipermb looked at USC's scholarship numbers, while Fearless Leader looked at all the Trojans who could transfer without penalty. It looks like those guys probably won't end up being relevant to Michigan.
he will SOAR.
What, no love for formerlyanonymous's MGoOpus; Inferno Cantos I - IX?
The post was already getting realllly long, and I wanted to blockquote them liberally. They'll feature prominently in the next one, which shouldn't come after as long a wait as this one did.