We're the 3rd youngest team having played the 3rd toughest schedule!
2/17/2012 – Michigan 79, Penn State 71 – 22-4, 9-4 Big Ten
Y U NO PLAY DEFENSE (Bryan Fuller)
A home game against Penn State is supposed to be a laugher, and on one side of the ball it was. Michigan put up 1.2 points a possession even without the participation of their centers—literally. McGary, Horford, and Morgan combined for zero points in 43 minutes. No one really noticed because Glenn Robinson III spent most of the day playing NBA Jam and Nik Stauskas was so much more than a shooter that it took five or six drives before something akin to "Not Just A Shooter" got exhumed by the announcers. Michigan did what it does, on one side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball, raise your hand if DJ Newbill's umpteenth only vaguely resisted drive to the basket in the first half caused you to exclaim a variant on "you have got to be kidding me." That's everyone.
Now raise your hand if that exclamation included a swear word you invented on the spot. That's probably just me, but it got bad. Michigan turned to Matt Vogrich in the second half. Since Stauskas was going off this was presumably a move to shore up the defense; Vogrich promptly lost his guy and gave up open corner threes on consecutive possessions. The first one was a reaction to a bad McGary gamble, sure. The second… dot dot dot. At many points Penn State should have been down 15, and the scoreboard said they were down by 3 or 5.
This felt bizarrely familiar to me, and I figured out why: I've watched a lot of NC State this year. This game was disturbingly reminiscent of watching the Wolfpack play. This is not good. You get a window into the psyche of another fanbase when you adopt them as Michigan-by-proxy, and I think NC State fans are pretty pissed off that their combination of players is barely over .500 in a weak ACC. I kind of hate them myself because they combine some breathtaking talent with total indifference on defense. They can beat Duke; they can give up 86 points to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
Finding a shadow of that team in this Michigan outfit that was until recently cruising towards a one-seed is not fun. This is analysis! This is Thunderdome!
Oh, but that shadow is there. Click the conference-only checkbox on Kenpom and you get a shocking splash of red:
Michigan is easier to shoot against than anyone in Big Ten play. Easier than Nebraska. Easier than Iowa. Easier than Penn State. Easier than Illinois despite Illinois playing with big men that may in fact be ghosts. Easier than the crippled husk of Northwestern.
Northwestern is the Rasputin of the Big Ten: shot, stabbed, poisoned, shot again, trampled by horses, chucked in the river. Finally dead and bloated, they are aimlessly floating towards the next life. It's harder to shoot against them than Michigan.
It gets worse when you consider the low number of transition opportunities Michigan provides since they're so responsible with the ball on offense. It has nothing to do with possibly-meaningless three-point shooting, at which Michigan is perfectly average at defending. It is entirely because they are also dead last at keeping twos out of their basket. It's repeatable stuff that the stats are probably not fully encapsulating. It is Not Good. (This is analysis this is Thunderdome.)
Earlier in the year a few people sounded the alarm about Michigan as a national contender, citing its defense. I said "but look at the outlying offense and wait for the defense to maybe move up a bit, Michigan is for real." That's a tough case to make right now. The offense has given up its massive lead and slid back to third; the defense has gone the wrong direction.
When DJ Newbill has a band in ten years they will be called The Unresisted Forays Into The Crisler Lane, man. Sound the alarm. It's time for a hard look at drastic actions, whatever those might be. Waving your hands in the general direction of a shooter is a start.
From Bryan Fuller:
Threes. They feel not random. The numbers say they are. Opponents' three point shooting since the start of Michigan's brutal stretch:
It has felt like Michigan is giving up open look after open look and is getting scorched from deep. The result of this feeling: approximately three extra makes across five games, so far within the province of random noise that Autechre is jealous.
Way back in the ur-blogging days when Big Ten Wonk was an anonymous man with a large vocabulary and not John Gasaway we had a conversation about whether or not the fact that Michigan's opponents were raining in threes at a hellacious clip during a particular Amaker campaign was luck or not. I said yes, he said yes but only partially, and I eventually came around to his point of view. Any short-term blazing above 40% will regress.
Lately, Kenpom has been on a crusade to declare three-point shooting defense to be totally random. I entered this section planning to write that I felt streaks like Michigan's recent one were earned, and now I don't know what to think.
Inside the line or out, pick your poison.
Another thing that doesn't seem right. Newbill ended up 3/10 from two. The guy who hurt Michigan was Sasa Borovnjak at 7 of 9, mostly on uncontested rolls to the basket. Michigan's rotations were late and sometimes the pick and roll guy was making the dump inside, which is a big no-no. When Michigan hedges, they play it such that if the guy getting the ball screen can toss it to the big, they're done. Too much of that in this one.
Trey. Dang man, 29 points on 16 shots—and four extra possessions with free throws, something we actually have to adjust for after this one—five assists, and zero turnovers. A couple of shots bugged me, as they were taken with no hope of an offensive rebound, but the efficiency speaks for itself.
Stauskas. Not Just A Shooter was in full effect as Stauskas picked up 12 points inside the line on perfect shooting—3/3 from the floor and 6/6 at the line, though IIRC one of those trips to the line was a non-shooting foul at the end of the first half. He also added four assists. The only thing he didn't do well was shoot the J, going 2/6.
I did have further frustrations with him on defense, and it seems like Beilein did too since we got to see Vogrich unearthed. That was the equivalent of a frustration foul.
GRIII: hello again. A series of highlight-reel dunks against a porous defense and Robinson is back. His success in this one only highlighted the reasons he'd disappeared in the previous few games: he's a top-quality finisher who rarely takes a bounce to get a shot. If put in a situation where he has to make his own shot, he defers. Once or twice a game he will go at the basket himself. That's all.
That's fine, but after the tough stretch it seems like far too much of Michigan's shot creation is on Burke's shoulders. Stauskas does a good amount for a third option; Hardaway not so much and then Michigan gets almost none from the 4 and 5 aside from putbacks.
Not so good: Hardaway, centers. Hardaway didn't shoot well. Okay, it happens.
The centers were a little bit more alarming. The shooting is one thing. They went 0/5 in 43 minutes. The rebounding is another: just 3 and 3 as Penn State outrebounded M 31% to 22%. Defensive rebounding is the only thing that Penn State actually does well (5th in conference; they have no other above-average factors) so I guess that's expected. But combine those numbers with Penn State's frequent dump-ins to Borovnjak—which are usually the hedger's fault for providing a passing lane or not getting back once the ball screen recipient tosses it to another perimeter player—and it was rough day.
I'm torn on Morgan. On the one hand, I'm hoping that Morgan's ankle is still bothering him extensively and he shouldn't be playing because then the fact that he seems like he's not offering any help to the beleaguered defense has an explanation. On the other, I'd really like him to be full strength posthaste. At least Michigan doesn't have a midweek game coming up. Hopefully he'll be ready by Illinois.
End of half heroball update. Burke was forced into the backcourt by his man, then trapped as he crossed the line, causing him to dump the ball with time running out and getting Michigan another terrible shot. Because Burke wasn't taking it, it did not go in.
What is the point of those end of half timeouts? All of them seem to consist of "Trey, go do something" and 28 seconds of staring at each other. I would prefer something with a second option like "Nik, go do something" or "Tim, go do something."
This week's refereeing outrage! Er, it actually went in Michigan's favor as Newbill picked up a critical third first-half foul on something that was not even close to a charge.
How do you fix charges? I don't know. Newbill's first charge was legit, as he plunged his shoulder into Stauskas and knocked him back with an arm, but this caused Pat Chambers to have a conniption fit because Stauskas didn't collapse into a Duke-like pile of flop and shame. His second was not, but did feature a guy getting bowled over. I think I'd change the rule so that feet had nothing to do with it except when it comes to getting outside the circle. It's a charge if the guy nails you directly in the chest, and a block if it's to the side. Expand the no-charge circle a bit and make the reform that Jay Bilas is always on about where if you move under a guy who's already in the air it's a block. And explicitly make simulating a charge a foul.
Anyway: Michigan got to the line a whopping 35 times after games of 2 and 6 FTAs. This is because Penn State is not at all subtle in their hackathon, for which I commend them. Unmissable foul perpetrators of Happy Valley, the honesty in your illegality is award-worthy.
Here is an award.
Uniforms. I liked them.
We're the 3rd youngest team having played the 3rd toughest schedule!
The negative voting is just the kind of thing I was thinking of: people who are all brave when telling the masses they're overreacting, but when Brian or Ace does it, they become oddly...invisible.
And yes, a panic over a 4 loss team is as silly as the clip. So it has dual meaning.
The nature of the panic makes a difference. Peope are all brave when the masses are overreacting about one game proving we will always be terrible, never beat MSU, bomb out of the tourney, etc etc. When Brian or Ace panic about not being a 1 seed, they become oddly... invisible.
I find it interesting to see the parallels between today's UM basketball team and the UM football team from a few years ago.
Both had/have killer OFFENSES, and suspect DEFENSES. Offense is exciting, and keeps the heart pounding throughout, but teams with strong defenses win out...especially when it counts.
I know they're young, so I'm taking it all with a grain of salt - but I hope they mature quickly enough to make a deep tournament run!
Our D is not great, but it's not a complete tire fire like our 2010 football defense. Nationally, it's middle-of-the-pack (and was above average before Morgan's injury).
...best game of the year in terms of uniforms. Totally loved them.
Apparently, the team has today and Thursday off, and a two-day "minicamp" in between focused on team defense. Hopefully we will see positive results on Sunday.
Illinois will be a good test. They may not have much of an inside game but they do have guards that can drive the ball and shoot. They've also gotten their act together in a way that should give us hope that teams can fade and recover during the season.
Is Dick Bennett. I think Bo Ryan was under him and Bennett's son coaches in D1 and I think was at a PAC 12 school.
1. Steer ball to baseline
2. Keep offense on one side of the court and allow no reversals (easier said than done)
3. If one pass away, up the line and the line (passing line) and early help, early recovery. Simply, show help early and the sooner that is done, the sooner I can close out on my man
4. If two passes away, in the lane forming a flat triangle with ball and your man. If either of them move, the triangle moves.
His progression drills are awesome as well working from one on one steering to two man early help early recover drills then three on three one side of the court drills to four on four shells then advancing to off and on ball screen defending.
Daily, a commitment of 30 min in drill work is needed early on, then it can go fairly quick. Scrimmage time it's all incorporated and fun to watch. If anyone really likes that side of the ball, his videos and clinic stuff is fantastic.
I agree with your Wiscy defensive assessment that has carried on from the Bennett years. Bo Ryan, however, was not a Bennett protege. He coached many years at UW-Platteville (D3), then UW-Milwaukee, before UW-Madison hired him post-Bennett. He was the perfect coach to follow Bennett's shoes, though.
Your main point holds, though: Wisconsin plays excellent team defense.
Can we just put Novak into a Vogrich jersey and send him out on the court? No one will notice, I swear.
Even with a lack of a great defense and inexperience/youth, this team should be able to make a multiple round run in the tournament. I think the toughness of the BIG should prepare them well. They probably won't face competition like the top BIG teams until the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. However, I do believe that the previously mentioned items will catch up with them.
At this point I am not sure what to think. I really believe the possibility of even a shared conference title is highly unlikely. At this point this team needs to figure out how to get out of the first weekend of the tournament. It they lose to both MSU and IU at home I don't know how much confidence they will have heading into the tournament. Also, forget trying to play Morgan at this point. Hold him out until he is completely healthy and can actually make a difference. I would rather seem him fully healthy for the tournament.
Interesting thought: Any chance GRIII's timidness of creating his own shot is a byproduct of the requirements of his position? Perhaps he thinks the 1, 2, and 3s are supposed to be the shot-creators and he doesn't want to work outside of the expectations of the position?
Just a theory. Wonder if some time at the 3 could change this mindset? I doubt he ever plays anything but the 4, but it sure would be a fun experiment!
Hey Brian finally mentioned something about end of the half situations or lack there of. It only took you 6 years buddy. Congrats!