coaching changes
coaching fiasco 2014

Coaching Candidates Part 1: The Power 5 Comment Count

Brian

WELP. When you're a four point dog to Rutgers it's time to start keeping an eye on potential new head coaches.

Pipedreams

Jim Harbaugh, John Harbaugh, Kevin Sumlin, and various others are not discussed because you know who those people are and it's unlikely Michigan secures them. They're passed over primarily because they're obviously desirable. You don't need to be told Jim Harbaugh seems like a good idea.

Too old

It's not worth the risk to hire anyone approaching retirement except in very specific circumstances like "this is the only head coach we've ever been any good under"—looking at you, Kansas State. So out go David Cutcliffe (60), Mike Riley (61), Gary Pinkel (62), and, uh, Kirk Ferentz (59), because it would be ULTIMATE MICHIGAN to go after Kirk Ferentz. I'd take Art Briles in a hot second even though he's 58, but he's also lumped in here or pipedreams since he seems impossible to pry out of Waco. 61-year-old Les Miles is also in this group. If he had a time, it was 2007. I'm not saying there's no chance… but there isn't much of one. And you already know all about him anyway.

Gentlemen of note, then.

Power 5 Head Coaches

Look before we name a name you're going to be all like "oh what if Michigan is a poor cultural fit with the spread shouldn't we go get a pro-style guy or something"… there just aren't many to consider. I included the obvious guy.

10987976-large[1]DAN MULLEN, MISSISSIPPI STATE

BASICS: 40-28 in his sixth season in Starkville. SEC record 17-24, which is actually rather good for a Bulldogs head coach. Was Urban Meyer's OC before that, and his QB coach at BGSU and Utah. 42.

PROS: Turned previously inept MSU into decent program. Young. High level experience in recruiting wars and as national-championship-level OC.

CONS: Has acquired a great deal of his wins against tomato-can laden nonconference schedule and still struggles to win half his SEC games. Reaction to recent suspension of starting OL for multiple in-game stomping incidents was from the Dave Brandon school of PR.

OVERALL: Desirability on a knife edge right now. If he follows up LSU win with season that sees Mississippi State end up a solid top 25 program he will be a hot name. Slip down to the 7/8 win level he's been at and it's questionable.

 

 

Mike-Gundy[1]MIKE GUNDY, OKLAHOMA STATE

BASICS: Is a man. Is 47. In his tenth season at Okie State, 80-39 record with one Big Twelve championship and Fiesta Bowl win; two other ten-win seasons. Before that was Les Miles's OC.

PROS: Good coach who can insert any sentient being at quarterback and see that guy/spaceplant pass for 300 yards. Young for a guy with a decade as a head coach. Knows what he wants his program to be.

CONS: Availability questionable. Is currently at alma mater and has T. Boone backing him. Last time Michigan pried a dude away from his alma mater things went poorly, partially because of the reputation a man acquires when he leaves his home base. May not have left Oklahoma except for road games in 30 years.

OVERALL: If you can get him, hell yes. Probably can't get him.

[After THE JUMP: the last manball unicorn]

TODD GRAHAM, ARIZONA STATE

810436197[1]

BASICS: Been a head coach since 2006 at four different stops including one-year stints at Rice and Pitt. Had three ten-win seasons with Tulsa, guided ASU to a 10-4 season with an 8-1 Pac 12 record last year. 21-10 so far in his career. Before that was the DC at Tulsa. 49.

PROS: Successful everywhere he's been that he was at for more than a year. Despite defensive orientation, runs effective, high tempo offenses.

CONS: Wears Britney Spears mic on sidelines. Inveterate job-hopper. Bad haircut.

OVERALL: Bo would die again if Michigan had a guy with that mic.

628x471[1]DAVID SHAW, STANFORD

BASICS: 37-8 in three years as Stanford's head coach with three BCS appearances. was Harbaugh's OC for four years prior to that and his WR/QB coach at San Diego. Before that was an NFL assistant with the Raiders and Ravens. 42. Seems poachable what with Stanford's attendance struggles and his relatively modest salary.

PROS: The last manball unicorn. Literally the only successful pro-style college head coach who might be available. Great record, has plenty of experience coping with spread offenses, and in year four concerns that he's just riding Harbaugh's coattails are minimal. Operates in high academic environment; already proficient at selling the kind of guys who want to go to Michigan.

CONS: Punted from his own 29 in the midst of dominating USC and still losing to them, a Lloyd Carr callback I would prefer not to relive. Stanford alum experiencing great success at his alma mater, remember last time we poached guy from alma mater, etc.

OVERALL: Despite the punting thing and the boggling USC loss would be a hire that checks every last box. I'd live with the offense, assuming he could in fact implement it.

 

20ee92f8b9b904d9835584952a5e411e[1]BUTCH JONES, TENNESSEE

BASICS: Took over for Brian Kelly when he left CMU for Cincinnati, then took over for Brian Kelly when he left Cincinnati for Notre Dame. Improved both of those programs, with CMU having an undefeated MAC season en route to a 11-2 record and taking Cincinnati to two Big East Championships. 5-7 in his first year at Tennessee, currently 2-2. 46.

PROS: Age. Michigan native. Good amount of experience at places that are not naturally successful. Seems to have made Tennessee a lot better this year—they just about beat Georgia.

CONS: RR/Kelly associations may poison well both ways. Leaving Tennessee after two years would be a hard sell. Vols could match any offer.

OVERALL: If he is amenable to courting, I would court. Relying on M's historical place in the firmament over Tennessee's somewhat more dubious place in the cutthroat SEC to do so.

Kevin-Wilson[1]KEVIN WILSON, INDIANA

BASICS: Longtime OC at Miami (Not That Miami), Northwestern, and Oklahoma got the Indiana job in 2011. After 1-11 opener has turned IU into a chaos team that can win or lose any game with their lightning speed offense and horrendous defense. 52.

PROS: Indiana's offense.

CONS: Indiana's defense.

OVERALL: I'm not seeing it. Offense is pretty gimmicky, hasn't actually gotten to a bowl game. While I'm usually skeptical of arguments that the things that happen when your defense is off the field have a major impact on it, the extreme tempo that Indiana uses to be competitive is an exception.

OTHERS

NW's Pat Fitzgerald seemed more attractive four years ago. So did TCU's Gary Patterson. If Paul Chryst could actually put together a nice season for Pitt he'd be a guy to look at, but he hasn't so far. Randy Edsall might not be the worst idea in the world and how depressing is that? Al Golden might get sick of Miami, but his tenure so far isn't amazing. If Gary Andersen's amenable I'm interested; don't think that's likely. Oregon's Mark Helfrich is only paid 1.8 million dollars so Michigan could sniff around to secure him a nice raise. Bret Bielema… nevermind.

*shudders*

Comments

BluByYou

October 1st, 2014 at 11:32 AM ^

a repeat process from BH.  The obvious question is who will the AD be who runs the process?  We need to focus on that first, then it seems there have to be many high profile assistant coaches who could make the cut, men with managerial skills lacking in this program.  As in all hires, the due diligence is the key.

Joined: 12/31/2010

MGoPoints: 1871

DesHow21

October 1st, 2014 at 11:35 AM ^

previous HC experience is going to doom us. Good luck with Randy Edsall becuase we *have* to only hire people with HC experience. If the Michigan arrogance prevents us from hiring good up and coming college coordinators, then go the NFL route and get a coordinator from there. It wont be as good but a better option than the retreads you've listed here. 

 

Joined: 07/29/2008

MGoPoints: 1561

qsilvr2531

October 1st, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^

Cincinnati fan chiming in on Butch Jones.  He didn't actually improve on Brian Kelly.  Kelly had two outright Big East championships and took UC to two BCS bowls.  Jones split his BE championships and never took us to a BCS bowl game.  He's an ok coach but Kelly came in and won 10, 11 and 12 games with UC.  Jones won 4, 10 and 10 and he never got UC back to the level that Kelly had us.  That might not be fair since Kelly had us at our best ever but he was never a coach that excited UC all that much and even with Tuberville and a demotion to the AAC not many fans around here really miss Jones that much.

Joined: 07/27/2009

MGoPoints: 3

Cromulent

October 1st, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^

Helfrich ain't going anywhere. He was born and raised in Oregon and is very happy there. Read the recent Grantland piece.

Butch Jones: I question a guy who had Dan LeFevour for 3 seasons and couldn't get a better YPA than Kelly did in Danny's freshman season. Especially when Kelly had the kid riding the bench to start the season and basically had to make things up when the original starter - Brian Brunner - went down.

Joined: 01/06/2011

MGoPoints: 4548

Bocheezu

October 1st, 2014 at 11:38 AM ^

like OSU with Meyer.  That guy was on nobody's list because nobody thought he wanted to coach.  When every decent candidate has a slim chance of coming here, you have to think outside the box.  Which I realize is easy to say/hard to do, but that's why the AD is paid the big bucks.  Unfortunately, this program needs a major wakeup call.

Joined: 02/22/2009

MGoPoints: 2154

Bodogblog

October 1st, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^

I've been bandying back and forth with alum96 about this in his excellent diaries on coaching candidates, but we can't exclude Pinkel due to age.  He's the best choice, from my limited 'what the hell do I know standpoint'.  I'll just copy and paste my comments from that thread:

We don't need a guy for the next 20 years, we desperately need a developer and schemer who can coach the current roster.  8 years is plenty.  He's 62, looks much younger, he can go to 70.

He's from Ohio.  His record at Mizzou is 106-64, at Toledo 73-37.  He has four 10 win seasons in the last 7 years, went 12-2 with a Cotton Bowl win last year.  He's doing it with a lot of local Mo. kids and mediocre recruiting classes (#56, #34, #41, #31, #48 over last five years according to Rivals).  You might say "not a great recruiter", I'd say "Missouri".   Scheme change?  Probably.  But he has Maty Mauk chucking the ball all over the yard, and had him playing very well off the bench last year as RS freshman.   DUI's are a problem.

I believe it's much more important to get a proven winner, even for 6-8 years (if he comes, he's not bowing out after 4-5 years) than it is to meet a 10-year career criteria.  In other words, if we bring in an inferior coach that's willing to stay for 10 years, I'd see that as a critical failure ilo of brining in a superior coach for 6-8 years.  Wouldn't you?  Why wouldn't you want to have the best?  Besides look at Pinkel, he could take Mullen in a fistfight (which should definitely be part of your criteria). 

6-8 years is plenty of time to build a team reflective of the new coach, change the culture (expecting to outscheme and outprepare opponents rather than hoping our obvious flaws won't be exposed), put the RR/Hoke years in the rearview, and leave a legacy.  We need an IQ guy and staff, coaches who can develop a loaded (at least if recruiting rankings are accurate) roster, and win now.   I don't have all the answers on all these guys - which is why I love your series - but Pinkel seems closest right now.

Joined: 06/08/2010

MGoPoints: 26674

APBlue

October 1st, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^

I totally agree.  Actually, I've agreed with quite a few of your points in this thread.  

Age is overvalued as a criterion in this situation.  

In order to right this ship, we need the very best coach we can get right now.  If he only coaches for 4-5 years, we'll be in much better shape at that point to find another coach. 

As you wrote: 

"...if we bring in an inferior coach that's willing to stay for 10 years, I'd see that as a critical failure ilo of brining in a superior coach for 6-8 years." 

Yeah, if we bring in an inferior coach who will stay for 10 years, we'll have an inferior coach for 10 years.  

Let's get the best coach we can!

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 22020

Bodogblog

October 1st, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^

I'm a Michigan fan for life, the team has given me so much joy over the years that I'll stomach whatever the rocky road ahead brings.  So winning now isn't highest on my list.

That said, I think it's the most important criteria for the next coach.  Much more important than legnth of tenure.  The players on this team deserve to be put in the best position to succeed, and that's not happening now - offense, defense, or special teams.  I believe Hoke and staff are doing a good job on fundamentals (though you can question this on OL and QB), but being badly outcoached on game day.  This includes being totally unprepared for big games / looking like they're sleepwalking through the first half. 

That's the biggest thing that needs to change.  They need better preparation, they need better schemes, and they need better development.  They deseve that.  They deserve coaches that are better than the guys on the other sideline.  Pinkel's a proven winner, he can do that.

Joined: 06/08/2010

MGoPoints: 26674

Tim Waymen

October 1st, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^

A big problem I have with Pinkel is his dirt. He got a DUI a few years ago but then again so did Jim Harbaugh. The bigger issue is that a lot of his players get arrested. Mizzou has done well in the Fulmer Cup. But mad respect to him for the job he's done at Mizzou and also for supporting Michael Sam when he came out.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1973

Steve in PA

October 1st, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^

Bill Snyder doesn't seem to have a problem now and wasn't too old to turn around the KState program. I really don't think we're going to convince a top level power 5 coach to come. Every one of those programs can match Michigan dollar-for-dollar. That leaves lower tier coaches, coordinators, or unemployed coaches looking for redemption. We have a power 5 coordinator on staff that was thought of as a potential HC candidate. I've been on board with giving him the opportunity for an on-the-job tryout since ND. Can't blame him for last year's debacle and I'm not sure how much of this year can be put on him. He may be able to hold recruits, it was a small class anyway, and there's no buyout if it doesn't work. If we're gonna have to take a flyer, and I think we will unless Miles is the guy, I'd like to see Doeren from NC St since he's a proven coordinator from the B10 with HC experience and excellent results from lower levels.

Joined: 08/10/2009

MGoPoints: 6327

Ryno2317

October 1st, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^

Other than Butch Jones none of these guys are going to make the program what we want it to be.  They might be a bit better than Hoke, however, we don't know that.  This is very depressing.  After reviewing this list, I would take Les Miles for 5 to 8 years as he could get the program on track and we can hopefully be more prepared to make a regime change when he retires.  I don't know.  Michigan just isn't the job it used to be. 

Joined: 10/14/2013

MGoPoints: 12486

CooperLily21

October 1st, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^

Is there any way Nussmeier gets a shot at the job?  Not that we want him (or do we?) but I have a feeling that Brandon hinted at the possibility of him getting the job some day in order to get him from Alabama.  I presume Nussmeier is on the hunt for a HC job eventually and realized that Saban wasn't going anywhere for a long time.  Thoughts??

Joined: 03/05/2013

MGoPoints: 2262

funkywolve

October 1st, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^

The offense is a tire fire.  Whether that is the fault of Nuss who knows - there's been issues with the offense the last couple of years.  He'll be too closely associated with this year to be given a shot as head coach at UM. 

The only chance for Nuss is Hoke gets canned during the year, Nuss is given the title of interim coach and the team rebounds with Nuss as an interim coach.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20189

Tim Waymen

October 1st, 2014 at 11:44 AM ^

Many of the most successful or hottest head coaches in CFB right now were offensive (mostly) or defensive coordinators not 5 years ago. It is important to note, however, that many of them followed a succession plan (or a failed one e.g. James Franklin), so pedigree and training are very important. I think ideal would be a guy who is being primed to be a HC and has Midwest ties. But hiring an assistant is done all the time in the NFL, although there is a smaller pool of established NFL coaches to hire from with only 32 teams. Going for a MAC coach just isn't working in most cases. Unrelated to and going against my previous point, guys I was high on as possibilities were Craig Bohl and Chuck Martin. Even though Martin is coach at MU, he had something like a 40-game winning streak had GVSU.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1973

Jgrasty

October 1st, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^

I think he is an exceptional coach.

 

Curious why you think Sumlin is less attainable than Gundy or Shaw?

 

Also, very intrigued by Jones and Graham.  Would love to hear more detailed thoughts on them.

 

What about Chris Petersen?  Are you ruling him out because he's only been at UW one year?

 

Joined: 09/17/2011

MGoPoints: 7

HighSociety

October 1st, 2014 at 11:48 AM ^

Only two current coaches (Beamer and the guy at Troy) have been at their schools for 20 years, it's not really realistic to expect that kind of longetivity these days and you eliminate a lot of good candidates by just looking at the 50 and under crowd.

Joined: 09/02/2011

MGoPoints: -386

flashOverride

October 1st, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^

This is terrifying to me, seriously. Michigan will be blown out by OSU and MSU, and given Hoke's track record in road games, I can't objectively predict a win at Rutgers. I thought Northwestern might be a possibility because they looked like an even bigger tire fire than Michigan, before they marched into Happy Valley and smoked Penn State. I don't know if that was lightning in a bottle for one game, or if they have turned a corner, so I am not sure what to think about that game yet. Penn State, Indiana, and Maryland aren't great, but they run the kinds of offenses that this defense is spotty against. Even if the D turns in command performances, can they limit these offenses to the extremely minimal point totals Michigan's offense requires to outscore? Again, I can't in objectivity, based on what I can see right now, imagine that they will.

In short, it is all but impossible for me to imagine Brady Hoke as Michigan's head coach in 2015. Unless the Regents are cowed into keeping Brandon, who in turn keeps Hoke, and incites full-on fan revolt.

But this list is depressing and I don't find much fault with its pessimistic outlook. If Hoke is fired, who replaces him? All I feel I can hope right now is that there is some intrepid, confident, *competent* young coach out there at this very moment thinking, "Screw the pressure that comes from the fanbase and donors. Bring it. Do you know what *I* could do if I had those players and resources to work with? I'll have them ready to rename the Big House after me in three years. Let's do it."

I can't help but fear that's all we have. 

Joined: 08/04/2013

MGoPoints: 9070

Hannibal.

October 1st, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^

You seriously wouldn't want Bret Bielema after the sustained success that he had there 4+ years after Alvarez resigned? 

Also: "pipe dream" becomes "possible" with lots of money. If we go into this search with the attitude that we are going to have to settle for a Plan C guy instead of paying a bunch of money for a Plan A guy, then we are royally fucked, and we might as well hang onto Hoke.

Also #2: you left some successful power five-ish guys like Kyle Wittingham, Gary Patterson, and Bronco Mendenhall. 

Joined: 09/09/2008

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