[Marc-Gregor Campredon – MGoBlog]

As 2016 winds down, the Big Ten will be getting ready for conference play. Despite the league being off its usual standard, it should still be a compelling conference race – Indiana, Purdue, and Wisconsin probably are the teams with a shot at the conference title, but there’s a bloated middle that could produce a surprise contender and should give us plenty of competitive games for the rest of the winter. Since this post was getting long, I split it in two and will be covering the other half of the conference later this week.

Teams are listed in alphabetical order.

ILLINOIS (9-3)

After experiencing year-over-year declines in win totals throughout his Illinois career, John Groce might have entered the season with the least job security of any coach in the Big Ten, despite a strong recruiting class that will be arriving in Champaign next season (featuring 5* big man Jeremiah Tilmon). The Illini returned several players from injury and still have senior swingman Malcolm Hill – probably the most underrated player in the conference. Hill has had a good year, averaging 18 points per game; he’s still drawing fouls at a high rate and leads Illinois in shot attempts by a healthy margin, but he’s been less of a distributor with 6th-year senior PG Tracy Abrams back on the court. After two seasons on the sidelines, Abrams has been a revelation for the Illini: his eFG% leapt from 37.7 to 65.6, the 5th-highest mark in the league.

Outside of an unfortunate home loss to Winthrop in overtime – a game the Illini led by ten with three minutes left in regulation, and a game in which 5’7 reserve Keon Johnson scored 38 points on just 23 shot equivalents for the Eagles – there have been few surprises in non-conference play. Illinois did lose to West Virginia (by 32) and Florida State in Brooklyn, though those are both good teams. They notched wins against NC St., VCU, and BYU, but it’s not likely that any of those teams will represent a particularly quality win come March. Winthrop wasn’t a terrible loss, and Illinois could theoretically play their way into the tournament with a strong showing in conference play – which would be a surprise. They’re the most experienced team in the Big Ten per Kenpom, and it seems like they’ve reached their ceiling.

[Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, MSU, and Minnesota after the JUMP]

INDIANA (9-2)

The best two wins of non-conference play across the entire league belong to Indiana: on the opening night of the season they won a really well-played game in OT against Kansas in Maui; in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, they dispatched North Carolina at home fairly easily. Each of those wins are terrific for the Hoosiers’ resume – and, in my opinion, signal that they’re probably the best team in the Big Ten. IU has lost two games however, one on the road to Fort Wayne in OT (in a game in which OG Anunoby was injured) and against Butler at a neutral site in a contest that they trailed for most of the way. The Fort Wayne loss doesn’t look quite as bad as it did at the time, as the Mastodons have moved into the Top 100, per Kenpom. Still, this Indiana team is noticeably worse away from home than they are in the friendly confines of Assembly Hall, which could be significant in conference play.

Despite having the same turnover issues that plagued them a year ago, Indiana is still an offensive juggernaut. James Blackmon returned from injury to be the go-to guy on offense and his shooting splits of 56 / 43 / 82 are terrific. Robert Johnson, another guard, has been an even more efficient shooter, posting the best eFG% for a guard in the entire league. Thomas Bryant has been as good as advertised, as the future NBA big man has been strong as a rim protector, can step out and hit the occasional three, and is lethal in the post with his 6’10 frame. OG Anunoby has been quite efficient and has ratcheted up his usage some, though the injury he suffered against Fort Wayne kept him out for a few games. He’s still probably the best individual defender on the perimeter in the entire Big Ten. A guy who’s been unexpectedly good is Juwan Morgan: he’s just outside the Top 25 nationally in offensive rating, is a terrific offensive rebounder, and plays almost as good of defense as Anunoby. Point guard is still somewhat of a question with Josh Newkirk at the helm, but IU probably has the best roster as a whole in the conference.

The Hoosiers still have one notable non-conference game remaining (most Big Ten teams do not) as they play against Louisville in Indianapolis on Saturday.

IOWA (6-5)

Since Iowa lost four starters, most expected it to be a rebuilding season in Iowa City and so far, it has been. The Hawkeyes lost five of their first eight games, against quality opponents (Virginia, Notre Dame) and poor ones (Nebraska-Omaha) alike. Defense was the biggest issue in those games, as Iowa conceded at least 1.25 points per possession in four of their five losses – despite mostly putting up decent offensive performances in a few of those games (particularly against Memphis, who beat Iowa 100-92 in a game with 76 possessions). The Hawkeyes currently have the highest pace of any Big Ten team, just ahead of Penn State.

The lone returning starter from last season – guard Peter Jok – has had a great year so far, leading the Big Ten in scoring at 23.5 points per game. Jok’s shooting splits (51% on twos / 43% on threes / 91% on free throws) are terrific and he has the highest shot rate of any major conference player in the country. Much of the rest of the rotation is comprised of freshmen: big man Tyler Cook, by far the most highly-regarded recruit, suffered an injury after playing well, but others – including the new starting center, Cordell Pemsl, 3-point shooting PG Jordan Bohannon, and wing Isaiah Moss – have been pleasant surprises. Iowa probably won’t even be in contention for an NCAA Tournament bid, but the stellar play of Jok and some promising youngsters help soften the blow of a considerable regression somewhat.

MARYLAND (11-1)

Though Maryland has a strong resume, they could be the biggest unknown in the entire conference: all three of their biggest wins – on the road against Georgetown, vs. Kansas State at a neutral site, and against Oklahoma State at home – all came by a single point. Adding in closer-than-expected wins against American (a team outside Kenpom’s top 300 teams nationally), Towson, and Richmond are certainly reason for concern for the Terrapins. Assuming that their luck in close games runs out, it’s likely that Maryland will drop some of those contests in Big Ten play. They’re best at getting to the free throw line – and freshman point guard Anthony Cowan has actually been better than junior Melo Trimble in that regard – which can help win close games, but they can’t keep winning all of them. Their only loss came at home against Pittsburgh by 14 points.

Like Iowa, Maryland’s breaking in four new starters, but the veteran presence is critical. Trimble has actually played more off the ball to accommodate Cowan, who has a slightly higher assist rate, but he’s still been a quality scorer and boasts a strong combination of usage (27.7% of possessions) and efficiency (offensive rating of 112.2). Along with Cowan, who has the fourth-highest free throw rate in the country at just 6’0(!), Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter get big minutes as freshmen for the Terrapins. Jackson is a particularly intriguing 3-and-D prospect as an athletic stretch-four. Interestingly, none of Maryland’s centers are able to play more than a third of available minutes because they all foul too much.

With a decent showing in conference play, Maryland should be able to make it into the NCAA Tournament – mostly because of the close, quality wins they accumulated during non-conference play. Still, they might be the best candidate to underwhelm in the Big Ten season because of their youth and the expected regression to the mean in close games.

MICHIGAN (9-3)

Despite underwhelming after their awesome performance back in November’s 2K Classic, Michigan is still ranked fourth in the league per Kenpom and there’s definitely a strong argument to be made for them as the best team underneath the top tier of Wisconsin-Indiana-Purdue. The losses in non-conference play were dispiriting: the offense was atrocious against South Carolina, the defense was atrocious against UCLA, and they let a game they controlled slip away against Virginia Tech. Still, the Wolverines avoided the type of truly bad losses that could be problematic in March, and should get off to a fast start once the calendar turns over to January because of a soft early schedule in Big Ten play.

The new starting frontcourt of DJ Wilson and Moritz Wagner has been a revelation. Neither player made much of an impact last season, but both are in the top 100 nationally in offensive rating and Wilson in particular has been an impactful defender as a versatile four. They have the most potential of anyone on the roster and could very well continue to improve as the season goes on. Because of those two, the complexion of this Michigan team is much different than that of typical Beilein teams. It’s worth noting that Mark Donnal has been quite solid in his role backing up Wagner, almost entirely due to his offense.

Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton have gotten some criticism as the senior leaders of the team, though statistically they’re playing the best ball of their career (at least since they were role players on the 2014 team that won a Big Ten title). The rotation isn’t deep at all so poor games from either or both of those two can doom the Wolverines, especially because they’re the team’s only real creators. Both have clear strengths (and weaknesses), and putting them in a position to succeed will be critical.

MICHIGAN STATE (7-5)

It’s been a tough year in East Lansing, but things took a turn for the worse when the Spartans dropped a home game against Northeastern, a middle-of-the-pack CAA team, in a guarantee game. State hadn’t put together a strong non-conference performance: they lost four of their five games against quality opponents and had narrow victories against Florida Gulf Coast and Oral Roberts, but last night was a new low for a team that will need a strong showing in conference play to keep their impressive streak of NCAA Tournament berths alive. The injuries to big men Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter were a major storyline entering the season; one-and-done freshmen wing Miles Bridges has now missed four straight games with an injury – he wasn’t particularly efficient but he’s clearly State’s go-to guy.

Interestingly, Michigan State’s much-hyped freshman class has largely lived up to the bill. Nick Ward isn’t able to play more than 42.5% of available minutes but he’s been a force down low: he draws the second-most fouls of anyone in college basketball, he has top 50 block and usage rates, and top 100 rebound rates on both sides of the floor. Ward is a poor free throw shooter though. Cassius Winston has the best assist rate nationally and has been steadily getting more minutes in place (and sometimes alongside of) Tum Tum Nairn. Josh Langford has been relatively quiet but is still a key rotation player. The problem – besides the lack of big man depth – is that the veterans have been particularly underwhelming, especially Eron Harris. Bridges is rumored to come back for Big Ten play and State seems to be a team with a wide range of possible outcomes: they have a high ceiling (and will need to trust the freshmen to help get them there) but they could very well be NIT-bound.

MINNESOTA (11-1)

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the Big Ten is Minnesota: the Gophers were horrible last season and have put themselves into position for an NCAA Tournament bid if they play well in Big Ten play. A couple additions to the roster have been instrumental in the turnaround: Reggie Lynch, a mid-major transfer, has the second-highest block rate in the country and has been the most vital part of the Gophers’ strong defense, and Amir Coffey, a top recruit on the wing, has been a good scorer (with the second-highest points per game number on the team) even though his outside shot hasn’t been falling. Akeem Springs – another transfer – gets starter minutes and has provided spacing; Dupree McBrayer is one of the most improved players in the league after a rough freshman season.

Minnesota played an easy non-conference schedule, which partially explains their record (as they are way better than they were last season). They played decently against Florida State on the road but wound up losing; their best wins otherwise were at home against Arkansas and UT Arlington (one of the best low-major teams in the country). Their schedule to open up conference play is a significant step up in competition, so we’ll find out quickly whether the wins they racked up against poor teams – including a handful of games that were closer than they should have been – were a mirage or not. Their defense suggests that they could be legit: they’re in the top ten nationally in eFG% defense and don’t send opponents to the free throw line. Even if they struggle offensively, that defense should keep them in most games.