Caris In Brooklyn: Breaking Down LeVert To The Nets
Fuller – MGoBlog
When Michigan took a flier on a 3* Ohio (yes, that Ohio) commit late in the 2012 recruiting cycle, few could have predicted that he’d grow into such a great player at the college level. Despite being as skinny as humanly possible, Caris played so well in practice that they burned his redshirt; a few months later he was getting valuable rotation minutes on a Final Four team. As a sophomore, he had a breakout season alongside Nik Stauskas as Michigan ran roughshod over the rest of the Big Ten.
With his classmates – Stauskas, GRIII, and Mitch McGary – in the NBA, LeVert’s last two seasons in Ann Arbor were derailed by injury and the Wolverines acutely felt his absence. Through the first two months of his senior year, LeVert was playing at a very high level and it appeared as if his decision to return to Michigan would help him in the draft, perhaps even giving him a shot to be a lottery pick. And then he got hurt again.
In the run-up to the draft, Caris wasn’t projected by anyone to go in the first round. His injury history was his defining characteristic characteristic as a prospect, and he wrote an open letter to GMs on the Players’ Tribune essentially to explain how many obstacles he’s already overcome and what kind of player he can be when he’s healthy. Pretty much everyone agreed that he’d be a perfectly fine second round pick – which gives a player far less certainty than being selected in the first round does – that could outperform his draft slot if healthy enough to play.
I really liked him as a prospect: it’s rare to see someone with such obvious 3-and-D potential at both ends of the floor in college, plus his passing ability and handle could allow him to play as an oversized point guard. By his senior year, he’d shown it all: 45% from three on more than four attempts per game, 32.9 to 11.8 assist to turnover rate ratio, a free throw rate of 44.0 – an offensive blend of efficiency and usage along with the most active, disruptive perimeter defense he’d ever played. The big if will always linger until he strings together a few healthy seasons, but he’s definitely an NBA player if he can stay on the floor.
In last week's draft, Caris was selected 20th overall – 2/3 of the way through the first round – by the Brooklyn Nets, a team who traded Thad Young, an established veteran, to get into the draft (as their extremely valuable first-round picks are held by the Boston Celtics for a few years as the aftereffect of a disastrous trade). The Nets were evidently comfortable with his medical reports, as LeVert’s most recent surgery was done by someone who works for the franchise.
Based on the consensus of the pre-draft hivemind, it might have been considered a reach, but most considered it to be a worthwhile gamble based on the dire future in Brooklyn and LeVert’s potential to grow into an impact player down the line. The Nets – projected to finish in the bottom three of the NBA again next season – need to gamble on upside and they did exactly that. That they were willing to essentially give up their second-best player (granted, on a terrible team) for a player who’d just suffered consecutive season-ending injuries indicates how much they see in LeVert.
There will be plenty of opportunity for him. Aside from their fluid and effective low post scoring center, Brook Lopez, the roster is really bad. After buying out Joe Johnson’s hideous contract, the backcourt rotation was miserable – Shane Larkin, Donald Sloan, Jarrett Jack, Wayne Ellington, Markel Brown. Much like the situation Stauskas stepped into in Philadelphia last summer, there will be plenty of available playing time for Caris if he’s ready to go by the start of the season.
It would be shocking if LeVert didn’t get significant rotation minutes, based on their willingness to concede Young and trade in to the draft. That LeVert is an older prospect is helpful in that regard, though there’s obviously a massive jump in quality from mostly small-conference college opposition in the last few years to facing other NBA players every night. If the transition is easier for him than for other recent Michigan draftees, he could start as a rookie and put up a lot of empty stats on a bad team – consider taking Caris as a sleeper if you play fantasy basketball.
I think Brooklyn is a pretty good landing spot for him, and – on the chance that he greatly exceeds even optimistic projections – it’s somewhere where he could quickly become a foundational asset. I’m surprised that they took him in the first round, though perhaps they were unwilling to find out if one of those excellently-run late, late first round franchises liked him a lot too.
As someone who’s closely followed LeVert’s college basketball career, it’s really hard not to root for him – that his decision to return for his senior season, a risk that didn’t work out, eventually didn’t wind up hurting him in the long run is a relief. Frequently seeing him in street clothes on the sidelines was a significant dimension of the past two years of Michigan hoops, and it’s hard not to consider him as one of the most snakebitten UM athletes in recent memory. To now see him on the cusp of a promising pro career, degree in hand, ready to sign a contract that could very well wind up paying out around six million dollars – it’s a happy ending for a career marked with such misfortune. We’ll be rooting for you, Caris.
Don't pay much attention to the NBA, but I'll be rooting for Caris. He was fearless and assertive as an unheralded freshman, obviously believed he belonged from proverbial Day One. The dude has It. Tools and drive. Stay healthy, amigo.
Nice recap of a super-likable player. I'm rooting for the Nets to put some good pieces around him.
Couple quibbles:
1. The Nets might not be a good landing spot if Caris is asked to do too much. Lopez is a good interior scorer, but Caris college career would indicate he is at his best as a complementary player. His freshman and sophomore seasons were both excellent, despite very different roles. I was hoping he landed at a place like Golden State, San Antonio, or OKC, where his versatility and ability to fit around his teammates would be an asset immediatly but he could be developed steadily (rather than thrown to the wolves to fend for himself). Hopefully the Nets land a primary scorer (besides Lopez) that will allow Caris to get open looks, show off his passing, and keep elite defenders off him as a rookie.
2. Coming back to Michigan hurt him financially. While he did go in Round 1, he likely would have went higher than 20 with better injury history and youth. More significanlty, he is a year further from free agency and probably sacrificed a year of earning in his prime to a cost-controlled rookie contract. If he succeeds as a legit NBA player, he would have been better off in Round 2. Round 1 does offer the guarantee and security, but again he was surely going to get drafted in Round 1 last year too.
That doesn't mean he made a mistake. If he had fun and graduated then you can certainly argue he made the right decision for himself for personal reasons.
It's better to start with a smaller role and grow into a bigger one while maintaining good habits and team play.
I'm not sure asking Caris to be a primary creator is what's best for him. 3-point shooting is the piece of his game that should translate immediately and that's what his game should be grown around.
Disagree with the idea that you can't develop in the NBA without playing heavy minutes. Too many counter-examples. Plus intuitively, practicing every day against the world's elite, having dedicated coaching to further your development are far more conducive to growth than the short NCAA season and it's many restrictions on coaching and practice time.
I do agree that certain players would benefit more from the open opportunity to have the ball -- primary scorers. I'm not sure that's Caris' long-term role. I see him as being closer to Klay Thompson or Danny Green (versatile team player) than Jamal Crawford or James Harden (score score score).
especially with the #1. Usually first round picks on bad teams are expected to contribute a lot , and I don't mean minutes but rather fill up a stat sheet. I'd have much rather seen him go to a more established veteran team.
Good write up.
I am a little concerned that because that roster is such garbage he could suffer a bit like Nik did in Sac and Phi. I think it can sometimes be hard for rookies to develop and learn how to be pros when they are surrounded with such awful situations, and maybe do better when they have structure in place (Richardson and Winslow in MIA this year, or a guy like Turner in IND).
Hopefully it goes well though and he stays healthy, develops a nice PnR game with Lopez (and I hope they don't trade Lopez or else they will be super trash)
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is that Nik looked worse in Philly, where he got more playing time.
The Kings were actually a pretty good landing spot for a 3 point shooter.
It's the ROC
when he didn't have to. That means alot to me. Here's hoping he flourishes in the NBA.
All of Michigan is rooting for you.
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