Camp Chatter Hot Takes
Previously: offense, defense & special teams.
Many people are saying things about Michigan's fall camp. Some are coaches, some are insiders, some are men wearing shoes as hats. Some of the things are true, some are maybe a bit misleading, some verge on balderdash. Let's evaluate things that people are saying for truthiness.
The quarterback battle is still up in the air
[Eric Upchurch]
Thing: Nobody has ventured a strong opinion on Michigan's starter. You occasionally get a weak assertion that someone feels like a leader that's immediately followed with caveats. Tellingly, those assertions are split close to down the middle between the two main contenders.
Thing react: The coaches almost certainly have a good idea who it's going to be, but I believe that the race is tight enough that it might get overturned late and that there's genuine uncertainty amongst insiders. I'd strongly prefer an answer by now. I mean, it'll be fine since Harbaugh, but it's more likely that Michigan has one good QB than two.
Chris Evans!
Thing: Can't throw a rock on a message board without hitting an insider swearing up and down that Chris Evans is the truth. This has bled through to honest to God press conferences as well.
Thing react: It's tough to find snaps for Evans in an offense that's going to run a metric ton of tight ends onto the field along with Grant Perry and Jabrill Peppers. One thing Evans has going for him is Peppers's tendency to be the best at everything all the time: they'll want to keep his snaps down until they really need him. Evans is another spread H-back type. He'll slot into the Peppers role against the pushovers.
Still feeling like Evans hype is real but a year too early.
Ben Bredeson!
Thing: Ben Bredeson has been promoted into a bonafide 50/50 competition for the left tackle spot. Also impossible to throw rock on message board without hitting man enthused about Bredeson. He was the BTN's primary takeaway from their visit to practice, which says something about something.
Thing react: If you made me guess this instant I'd say he's the starting LT. I'm not entirely enthused about this either, but Bredeson is closer to the instant-start five star zone than Mason Cole was. Cole was the #127 recruit on the composite. Bredeson was #39. Bredeson's also 20 pounds heavier than Cole was as a freshman. He was the only OL at the loaded UA game who could annoy Rashan Gary, so maybe he is ready to take on mortals.
Cole managed to survive as a freshman. Bredeson can probably do better. The ceiling is probably something like Erik Magnuson's completely average 2015.
The freshman receivers are good
[Bryan Fuller]
Thing: Michigan has already lost two of their five WR recruits, but initial reports on the three guys still on campus have been universally positive. All three are reputed to be explosive and dedicated.
Thing react: [sits and points at their recruiting profiles smugly]
None of these guys are going to play much this year, but if one or two emerges even a little bit that will ease everyone's mind about the 2017 receiving corps. I'm not worried. They can find three guys out of Ways, Harris, Perry, and the freshmen.
This defensive line is just… I mean…
Thing: All the usual suspects have come in for praise; the guys who have not been mentioned are guys who are taken for granted as really good players like Ryan Glasgow and Chris Wormley. Rashan Gary is mostly described with a blank look, a shake of the head, and a laugh because he is everything he's supposed to be. Chase Winovich and even Matt Godin are getting talked up as contributors.
Thing react: Yes to all of it. Godin suffered late last year because he played next to the third string NT and teams could double him with impunity; before that there was a period where he was keeping guys like Wormley and Henry on the bench to an extent. He's a good player and will see snaps. Charlton should blow up with increased playing time and his still-excellent upside.
Nobody says anything about the linebackers
Thing: Aside from the occasional direct response when a coach gets asked about them at a press conference, there is total radio silence about the inside linebackers. Brown keeps talking about redshirt junior walk-on Mike Wroblewski.
Thing react: I wouldn't take that as a sign either way. Linebacker play is difficult to get a read on. The last four years of Joe Bolden spring hype that petered out in to just okay play have made me suspicious of anything people say in this department.
One glance at the depth chart is enough to see that Wroblewski is going to play some. After the starters there is very little aside from freshmen. Devin Bush will play; Elysee Mbem-Bosse and Devin Gil are both very raw. Linebacker has more depth concerns than any position on the roster other than maybe safety.
David Long!
Thing: David Long is very fast and takes notes and is Jehu Chesson, cornerback edition.
Thing react: If Long remains healthy he is a lock. He's going to play this year and start in 2017 and that's going to be very little dropoff from Jourdan Lewis. Maybe not immediately, but by the time he's a junior definitely.
Backup safeties can play
Thing: Praise all available deities. Angry Michigan Safety Hating God seems to be focusing on receivers who might get moved to safety these days—in the last year he's hewed down Brian Cole, Brad Hawkins, and Ahmir Mitchell—and spared the actual DBs. As long as we're keeping Chris Evans on offense that trend can continue.
Tyree Kinnel and Khaleke Hudson are both getting plugged as definite contributors this year and solid replacements down the line. Neither is much of a surprise—Kinnel had a strong spring and Hudson is our favorite non-Gary recruit in this class—but not having either guy derailed is important for 2016 and critical for beyond. Josh Metellus has even come in for the occasional mention; hitting on him would be very nice.
Thing react: I expected to hear these things, but actually hearing them is a step on the road to having a functioning secondary this year.
Most of these things are about 2017 more than 2016
Thing: The camp chatter glosses over big swathes of the team because you don't need to be told about them.
Thing react: Gonna be a good year.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:28 PM ^
So excited about Hill at FB. So curious how he'll look on an iso, and I hope the dives don't go away. Can't wait to see him catch balls in the flat with some steam behind him. Deveon to the second level, Butt floating down the seam, then Hill getting past the LB and heading full bore into the secondary - the offense is going to make the safeties want to go home, then they're getting beat over top by Chesson (or McDoom, apparently).
All of it helps the QB. Just stay in front of your man OL, drive him if you can, but just wall him off or engage and stay in front, and the offense can be good.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:22 PM ^
I also don't think the "not making f-ups" level is equal between the two. I was led to believe that O'Korn is a bit more of a gunslinger than is Speight, and with that comes additional risk/reward.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^
My sense is that is the tradeoff. Are you willing to take more turnovers in return for greater mobility. If O'Korn has convinced the coaches that ability to make all the throws and limit f-ups as well, they might have already made the call.
The fact that they haven"t suggests that Speight has a lead in one or both of these areas to make up for his lesser mobility.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^
Someone versed in the embeds please insert Speight threading the needles vs Minny last Halloween.
Just cuz he did, not because I support him in the battle... I'm still pulling for O'Korn to emerge after the OOC games as the guy. Both will play vs HI, UCF, CO in my opinion
August 25th, 2016 at 12:59 PM ^
Pumped! I wonder how exactly Chris Evans will slot into the RB depth / amount of carries. If he's as advertised, any chance he can surpass Drake or Ty?
August 26th, 2016 at 6:02 AM ^
I would say that would be a very slim chance. Picking up the blitz is a huge part for a RB to understand and be able to do. If you can't do, you won't play. Drake is always solid and Isaac is ready to bust out into a big timer (my prediction)
August 25th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^
This team is going to be very good. At this point, I'm looking for things that can hold back UM from the playoff or even a Natty. And I don't like what I hear as much.
I don't care too much about the LBs just because I think they'll have an easier job considering the DL is at the Alabama world destroying level taking into the two deep rotation. But Bredeson starting at LT puts a lower ceiling on the offense. Eventually, UM will come up against a Bosa type pash rusher. And in order to win those games, you need to not let one guy blow up a quarter of your plays. I don't like a true Frosh holding down a critical spot like that, especially a true frosh who everyone was like 'can play tackle, but probably an interior OL is his best spot' coming out of high school.
Second is the QB. Whoever they put out there will be decent to good. But man, O'Korn with his more mobility and bigger arm raises the ceiling. Even if he's just slighly more turnover prone, I say go for it. This is the year. Go for the home run. Don't go for minimizing variance.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:13 PM ^
There's also an argument to be made that the defense will be so good that minimizing variance is pretty much all we need to do on offense. I honestly don't know which side I'm on, or would be on if I knew everything that was going on in camp. It's a tough call for sure.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:21 PM ^
There's going to be a time where the other team's D will shut down our O and we'll need to make some plays. I too, would rather they have the guy who has the most upsdie, even if it means a few more mistakes throughout the year. But that's just me, I like taking risks because the rewards can be so great.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:24 PM ^
I mean, I understand that argument. And it could work out. But generally, the minimizing variance is not my perfered strategy. The counter argument is also, with a defense this good, take more chances because they'll hold strong and get you the ball back. I just think that eventually this team is going to have to go through OSU, and teams like Clemson or FSU, or Alabama...teams that can put up points no matter how good your D is. You need to be able to keep pace and out do them to win. The pieces are all in place with this team. As best a combo of NFL talent and experience as Harbaugh might ever have actually. Swing for the fences. Banners fly forever.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^
I think you forgot MSU on your list........ /s
August 25th, 2016 at 1:29 PM ^
the LT thing a bit, and this occurs to me:
Obviously we don't know whether the coaches are considering Bredesen because he's just that awesome as a freshman, or whether it's because he's pretty decent and Newsome has been disappointing.
That said, it seems like potentially, if Newsome was awful and Bredesen was just "not awful", they might be considering moving Cole back to LT and putting Kugler or somebody at C, or even (oh dear) putting Magnuson at LT and Newsome/Bredeson at RT.
Since absolutely no discussion of anything even vaguely like those weird scenarios have been forthcoming, I choose to believe Bredesen is winning the position versus Newsome losing it, and that we're on track to have another 4 year guy kick butt for Michigan on the OL.
Rob
PS - All this brings home how vital it is that the staff kills it on the 2017 OL recruiting.
August 25th, 2016 at 7:17 PM ^
the dropoff from Cole to Kugler isn't large, and that's a big assumption. Cole wasn't a great LT, he was overmatched against elite rush ends and by all accounts, Center is his best position both physically and mentally. It's perfectly reasonable to think that Bredeson is starting because he is merely "not awful" so that Cole can play center above Kugler. As has been discussed ad nauseam, Bredeson sounds better than "not awful" but that might just be average, which isn't ideal for a playoff team with new QBs that could use some time in the pocket.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^
I kind of lean toward your paradigm. It means the critiques are a bit harsher, as in, things that we pick apart won't keep Michigan from winning 10 games this season. It's the other three or four or five that matter.
I do care about the LBs; nobody is really eliciting gushes, and I think that's unsettling, but on the flip side there hasn't been any real bad news, either. My general feeling is that defensively Michigan will be terrific unless we have serious injury problems.
Offense is more the issue, as you say. I disagree slightly about Bredeson--I think he has a higher ceiling, given a year's development, if he starts. But I think the fact that it's a tight race between Bredeson and Newsome lowers the floor, and there's a possibility that we'll be doing a lot of hand-wringing about LT for most of the season.
And you are correct, at some point we are going to face an elite DL if we want to win big this year. The OL needs to be better than it was last season, both at LT and the other spots. OSU's dominance at the LOS absolutely killed our offense, and you'll recall that we had a tough time against MSU as well. That's on all of the guys this season.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^
Can some of the OL weakness be papered over schematically? Keep an extra player on that side of the line, or in the back field, to support a struggling LT?
If the OL picks up where it left off after the bowl game, we should be fine. And really, with a second year of coaching, of learning the playbook and of general strength and maturity growth, I think we should be ok. My call is for Smith to run wild this season even with a FR LT and if that happens, we are playoff bound.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:33 PM ^
Read the OSU UFR. Harbaugh did everything he could to paper over OL weakness, and it wasn't nearly enough.
If our ceiling is winning the B1G, missing the playoff, and winning the Rose Bowl, we might get away with a flawed OL and never really see the elite talent that could expose it.
But if the ceiling is winning a national title (which we all want it to be) our OL will face a DL that is stocked with NFL athletes. It had better be ready, or we will be toast.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^
This "Natty" thing needs to stop.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:41 PM ^
If Bredeson is actually the best LT, how does staring him put a lower ceiling on the offense?
August 26th, 2016 at 1:39 AM ^
Who are the "bosa type pass rushers" on our schedule this year?
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August 25th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^
"If Long remains healthy he is a lock. He's going to play this year and start in 2017 and that's going to be very little dropoff from Jourdan Lewis."
August 25th, 2016 at 1:18 PM ^
Among all the unknown entities, this statement stood out to me as the most definitive thing Brian was willing to say.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^
That's a very very bold statement by the chief. That basically means David Long looks like a holy lock to be a 1st or 2nd round pick and All-American candidate
August 25th, 2016 at 9:57 PM ^
For him that's the boldest statement I've seen
August 25th, 2016 at 1:01 PM ^
There is no "I" in "mean", Brian.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
Fred Jackson was at a loss of words to describe them.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^
"They're like the Great Wall of China, only more formidable."
August 25th, 2016 at 1:20 PM ^
The Great Wall just stands there..our DL gets on you fast and drops on you like a ton of...Oh shoot. Maybe they are the wall, just like a very mobile, sacky wall.
Rob
August 25th, 2016 at 5:15 PM ^
I like mobile sacky great walls. Upvoted.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
and hype and top 10 ranking (yeeeeeee)..I can't help but be a little concerned that arguably the two most important positions on the field (QB and LT) are uncertain and not in a overly encouraging way.
Newsome looked very shaky in the spring game and clearly hasn't taken hold of the position. While it sounds like Bredeson is the real deal and will have a very good career, an average year from a true freshman at that position is worrisome for a team with playoff aspirations.
Similar for QB, but maybe less of a concern because Harbaugh. It's just hard to believe that Speight could take a huge leap forward from his very shaky performances last year so it seems like we're looking at two flawed QBs fighting it out, but again, Harbuagh. I won't be surprised by anything there.
Thank goodness for the soft first three games to get those two positions settled a bit.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^
That this coaching staff will get the most out of each position and player. And of course, we won't be perfect, but I think the team will work as a team and the studs will pick up the mini-studs. GO BLUE!!
August 25th, 2016 at 2:41 PM ^
about that. But what I fear is that "the most" out of a true freshman LT isn't a particularly high ceiling, as Brian mentions re: Bredeson.
Definitely think the ceiling for Harbaugh coached QBs could be very high, but would have preferred to hear that one is taking control of the competition and pulling away.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
I don't think it's so strange that Speight could take a huge leap in his development. No, he didn't look all that comfortable last year but he did win the Minnesota game for us, that's not a small accomplishment. Harbaugh knows what he's doing with QB's, he turned Alex Smith's career around and look at what Kaepernick has become without Harbaugh, QB whisperer indeed. And let's not forget about Jedd Fisch's influence as well. Two guys with high level NFL experience coaching our QB's means anything is possible.
If anything I'd prefer Speight over O'Korn (a mobile QB is a luxury not a necessity) because I think he's gonna take care of the ball and not risk turnovers. In case you forgot this team didn't force many turnovers last year (depressing stat: only SIX teams in the entire nation forced less than Michigan did in 2015) so having a guy that limits our turnovers is a very good thing in my mind.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^
Don't know if I agree with your calculus there but one thing is very clear from all the chatter: Speight has grown a great deal in the offseason. He may or may not be a gamebreaker, but he is going to be a different guy from the one that played last year.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^
I have zero reason to think this other than my ample gut but I think we are going to have a marked increase in takeaways this season.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^
How do we know that Speight is the careful game manager QB? Dude has played like 18 total snaps..you can't conclude anything about his tendancies or decision making from that.
OKorn threw 8 picks as a sophmore in his first year under a new spread offense and new coach two years ago. He is now in his second year in a completely different offensive system with coaches that build careful decision making into the passing scheme and emphasize ball security...who knows how he'll peform. All we've heard is camp rumblings that he's been tearing it up, yet somehow people still conclude OKorn will almost certainly be the gunslinging Brett Farve, high variance player of college football. I'd understand it if Okorn threw some ints or questionable balls in the Spring game or there were rumblings from camp that he threw lots of picks; we haven't heard any such thing.
August 25th, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
Well we did have early feedback from the coaches in Spring that O'Korn had to "cut down on the mistakes". He did throw a pick 6 at the Ford Field practice (really didn't have many chances to do anything but run in the Spring game.) so we have a few data points in that direction.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:05 PM ^
Defense wins championships.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:26 PM ^
What championship did Boston College win last year?
Defense wins championships. When combined with a good offense. And special teams. You need it all to go the distance.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:08 PM ^
And we will be back to Michigan football where we will restock with blue chip talent every year. And with a great coaching staff, the hype and anticipation each year will be something to look forward to.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^
I am not concerned about the QB. I would bet money coach knows who he is going with. Why would he show his hand to any teams game planning?
August 25th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^
I mean it's not like there is tons of film on either of them in Michigan uniforms to gamplan against if he were to declare a starter in camp...I don't buy the competitive advantage angle. Also, by the time we get into the meat of the schedule, the teams will have all the film they need.
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August 25th, 2016 at 1:19 PM ^
I don't think the offense in terms of play calling is going to be that much different whether O'Korn or Speight is the QB.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:21 PM ^
I agree, but I think it's just because the two are in fact tied that they have yet to make a decision.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^
Not going to buy that they will have any "good" film on us. Are we really going to need to show much early? I predict such a boring/bland offense in the first 1/2 that there won't be any real substance. Then, when needed... Look out.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^
While having film on a team definitely helps, the anonymous quotes from players and coaches about how UM's offense was running plays they hadn't seen on film makes me think it's really tough to gaem plan for the offense. Now granted part of that was probably the playbook expanding, but I also think a large part of that is Harbaugh and his staff coming up with different game plans each week to attack what they feel is the weakness of the defense.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^
We may play more open than you think. I definitely believe we establish the run first but I think we can open it up, even with a large lead. You have a new QB and trying to get the kinks out of a re-worked line in order to win a title. If we are throwing while we are up 35-0, OK. If it is 70-0, maybe we should be working the run game more!
August 25th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^
Even more of an argument against why delaying naming the starter (unless nobody really knows) doesn't really have a benefit competitively.
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August 25th, 2016 at 2:18 PM ^
Why do you think Harbaugh waited so long to announce Rudock as the starter last year? According to Speight, he thought the competition was over when fall camp started.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:12 PM ^
injuries biggest risk to season LB/OL and the key players
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