A Brief History Of Instate Recruiting: Rodriguez And Now Comment Count

Brian

A continuation of the Wednesday post that covers the last three years and what's shaping up in 2012. Side note: light day today. Semi-vacation day.

2009: Dominance Type Substance

 CHRISNORMAN8N08150larry-caperwill-campbell-cass

Chris Norman, Larry Caper, Will Campbell

  Touted Recruits   Head To Head   Signee Rankings
Year Mich MSU Other   Mich MSU   Mich MSU
2009 2 8 1   1 4   1, 6, 12, 24 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15, 20, 25

(MSU H2H wins: Dion Sims, Larry Caper, Edwin Baker, and Chris Norman.)

Michigan State nearly swept the in-state four stars, though some of those were pretty iffy—Jeremy Gainer's offer list read "MSU, Iowa and crap"; Donald Spencer's read "MSU and… MSU." Others could be filed under "just one of those things," like Blake Treadwell being a Spartan coach's son. Others were no longer of interest to Michigan because of their offensive system.

That said, this year saw four players who Michigan wanted and seriously could have used go to Michigan State, more than the previous six years combined. Only one—Norman—was a Ren/SE kid. Michigan's instate recruits were three Cass Tech kids and Inkster's Cam Gordon; with the exception of Michigan getting the #1 kid in the state this looks like a complete reversal of The Natural Way Of Things.

2010-2011: Even Footing

anthony-zettelwill-gholston-prombrennen-beyer-2

Anthony Zettel, Will Gholston, Brennen Beyer

  Touted Recruits   Head To Head   Signee Rankings
Year Mich MSU Other   Mich MSU   Mich MSU
2010 1 3 3   2 2   2, 11, 12, 22 1, 5, 7, 8, 9, 18, 19, 24, 28
2011 3 1 2   2 2   4, 5, 6, 7, 19, 25 1, 9, 10, 14, 26

(MSU H2H wins: Mylan Hicks, Will Gholston (2010); Ed Davis, Lawrence Taylor (2011))

The last two years were a wash. Michigan State picked up four more head to head battles, all of them for Ren/Southeastern kids. Michigan won a few, mostly Cass Tech kids. The state continued to bleed talent outside its borders.

2010 was odd because three of the four-star prospects in state were quarterbacks. Michigan won the derby for Devin Gardner, then Robert Bolden picked Penn State; Joe Boisture was left over for State. By the end of the year it was clear he was massively overrated, and he's already left the program. Gholston and Hicks were in bad places for Michigan recruiting; Max Bullough was a legacy. CJ Olaniyan also picked Penn State. A bit farther down the list Michigan made a bad choice by taking Austin White over Nick Hill and inexplicably ignored eventual Iowa commit Austin Gray. Their on-again, off-again recruitment of Jon Hankins (and his presence at SE) eventually turned him off; he went to Ohio State and contributed there his first year.

Last year the top player in the state was again a Ren kid who went to State. DeAnthony Arnett flirted with instate schools but always seemed headed elsewhere; he ended up at Tennessee. Anthony Zettel was a lifelong Michigan fan that Rodriguez/turmoil/etc eventually blew. The next four guys ended up at Michigan; further down Michigan lost SE's Ed Davis to State and Jacob Fisher to The Process.

2012: Hokeamania

We don't have rankings yet but a head to head scoreboard will suggest some things.

royce-jenkins-stoneMARIOOJEMUDIA10MP150james-ross-olsm

Royce Jenkins-Stone, Mario Ojemudia, James Ross

Michigan commits: Ben Braden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross, Devin Funchess

Michigan leans: Matt Godin, Mario Ojemudia, Ron Thompson, Dan O'Brien*

Tossups:

MSU leans: Aaron Burbridge

MSU commits:

*[O'Brien maintains Tennessee as his leader but Michigan is currently second with MSU nowhere in sight; if he stays instate he will be at M.]

The Natural Way Of Things returns.

With both schools seeking pro-style offensive players and running 4-3s on defense the evaluation gap has evaporated. Southeastern and Renaissance have no D-I players; even if they did, the "hurts my heart" guy got fired and the "Will Gholston lived with me" guy was hired by (surprise!) Michigan State to be a video coordinator. Those two factors were at play in six of the ten head to head battles Michigan State won over the last four years, and most people who follow these things closely think a couple of the exceptions are iffy. Tyler Hoover probably didn't actually have a committable Michigan offer and Michigan seemed to back off of Sims after they got wind of he and his dad's involvement with a laptop theft ring.

Hoke walked into a situation closer to those Michigan experienced at the beginning of the time frame covered here: Michigan has a number of very good regional recruits but few that are being recruited nationally. Of those guys two are at Cass Tech and a third is best friends with the guys at Cass Tech, leaving Danny O'Brien the only guy notching offers from way across the country who isn't extremely predisposed to head to Ann Arbor.

Still, Hoke locking down guys who should go to Michigan is an accomplishment. Michigan's downfall started when they failed to take advantage of the record bumper crop of 2007, losing "locks" like Ronald Johnson, Joseph Barksdale, and Dionte Allen and failing to swing any of the guys who were "locks" to other schools. Michigan lost CJ Olaniyan, Jon Hankins, and Dior Mathis two years ago. Last year Anthony Zettel escaped to Penn State, Jacob Fisher to Oregon, and DeAnthony Arnett to Tennessee. Those sorts of losses were far less frequent in the early part of the time frame here—from 2003 to 2006 Michigan missed on one top-three Michigan player they offered. Further down the list they had a similar strike rate.

Michigan lost its grip on instate recruiting late in the Carr era and failed to reassert it under Rodriguez. That was a combination of a run of talent at schools featuring guys who were going to funnel their guys to State come hell or high water, State legacies, and some guys on the margins of four stars. Without that confluence of factors, MSU was pretty much just MSU.

So: the question?

It seems likely Michigan will get seven or eight of the top ten-ish players instate. This is indeed unprecedented. In the long long ago when the Natural Way Of Things held, the state didn't produce enough talent for Michigan to offer the top five players, let alone the top ten. When it suddenly started producing buckets of talent huge chunks of it fled. So, like, Hoke uber alles.

Comments

blueheron

May 6th, 2011 at 12:54 PM ^

"I'm skeptical as well about the narrative that things were starting to fall off the rails before Rodriguez got here."

Did you miss the first two games of '07?  :)

Look again at the details from '07 (when numerous big names left the state) and '08 (partly Carr's class ... two head-to-head losses) again.

- - -

In the recent post, I would have preferred to see something more along the lines of "Started in '07, was worst in '09, and seems to be recovering somewhat."  RichRod's in-state performance looks pretty bad in retrospect.

Death Reau

May 6th, 2011 at 1:19 PM ^

he was, like I, just referring to in-state recruiting so the 2007 games aren't relevant.

I understand that 2008 is partly Carr's class, but I have a hard time counting any head to head losses against him when he didn't have the opportunity to finish the class off.  Not implying he would or wouldn't have gotten Smith or Hoover, it just doesn't make sense to include them.

True Blue Grit

May 6th, 2011 at 2:10 PM ^

Under Carr in 2005-2007 recruiting quality fell off (IMO) at O-Line (exceptions probably being Schilling and Cry Baby Boren), WR, LB, and RB.  Yes, we did bring in Kevin Grady, Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown in this period, but none of them ended up setting the world on fire at U-M.  And two of them were from out of state anyway.  And problems at defensive line and the def. backfield with attrition were partially due to recruiting the wrong guys (shaky academics or off-field risks).  Poster children here Cissoko and Slocum)  Yes, there were also some losses due to injuries that were not Carr's fault (Antonio Bass and Corey Zirbel).  Whether "Michigan lost its grip on instate recruiting" during this time or not is academic.  The bottom line is what all the players we brought in then produced in their careers - whether they came from instate or out of state.

Death Reau

May 6th, 2011 at 2:24 PM ^

but this discussion is about in-state recruiting, so I was only talking about in-state recruiting (there have been plenty of other posts/threads lamenting Carr's recruiting overall in his last few years.)  And again, if they supposedly got everyone they wanted to get - outside of one year - I don't see how that comment makes sense.

Seth

May 6th, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^

Good point.

I think what Brian was getting at was the rumblings from Southeastern and Renaissance, which probably began with those coaches getting hired.

I'm most familiar with Renaissance. The relevent Ren bits:

"I had two kids who went to the University of Michigan with Lloyd Carr and when Rodriguez took over last year, in my opinion they weren't done well. They weren't treated well. Carson had to leave early… to the NFL, and Andre Criswell, who's still up there, he's a graduate assistant who's not doing anything. And that hurt my heart. And I have a kid at West Virginia who's not very happy there. And I feel that."

This was over a 2-star flier fullback who became an RR grad assistant, and one of two main protagonists in the St. Patrick's Day Nerd Massacre.

The quote's from 2009. But his coaching at Ren goes back further. The program's about 15 years old I believe. When I was in high school they the  "Rena-nerds," were to liberal arts what Cass Tech was to science and math -- the brightest kids of Detroit, with coaches who knew what they were about, but a power program they were not. The staff which was fired last October, including Watts, came on about 2004 or 2005 I believe. I never heard anything but bad things about them.

jaws4141

May 6th, 2011 at 12:27 PM ^

I meant Rich Rod's classes at WVU as well.  WVU had some pretty good players during RR's run. Chris Henry, Steve Slaton, Pat White, PACMAN and Im sure there are plenty more.  I bet RR has more kids in the NFL than you think.  I think judging their recruiting should be based on national ranking of class and number of NFL players.   

jg2112

May 6th, 2011 at 12:51 PM ^

Except, that unless you control for these factors:

- Michigan's destination as an NFL "prep school"

- Rich Rod running offenses and defenses that sometimes do not lend themselves to NFL positions

- differences in admissions standards

- Lloyd and RR's ability to get guys into the NFL based on their connections and past draftees

- the fact Lloyd was at MICH twice as long as RR was at WVU

- the fact MICH had a 33 year bowl streak at one point, whereas RR took over a moribund WVU program in 2002

- the fact MICH can easily get kids out of MICH and Ohio as opposed to WVU

you're never going to get an honest comparison.

jmblue

May 6th, 2011 at 1:10 PM ^

I agree with most of that, except that WVU was not moribund when RR got there.  He succeeded a Hall of Fame coach in Nehlen.  But yeah, it's apples/oranges.  

I think a better potential comparison is Hoke's 2012 recruiting vs. how RR potentially would have recruited if he were still here.  I think Hoke would have the edge, having solid job security (even if Brandon had given RR a vote of confidence going into 2012, the perception was that RR was in trouble) and a much better-regarded defensive staff.

 

jmblue

May 6th, 2011 at 12:13 PM ^

I would say that the natural order of things is not necessarily that we get every in-state guy we want, but that in head-to-head battles with Sparty, we win almost all the time, unless the player has family ties to MSU.  

When it comes to some other schools, like ND, our recruiting record is more mixed.  

Tater

May 6th, 2011 at 12:18 PM ^

Now that everyone is in the same direction again, instate recruiting should be better.  With today's revelation (it doesn't need documentation because it will be a thread soon enough) that Lloyd Carr told Mallett to transfer, it makes me wonder just how much of a hand the Carr-tel had in "transfer-mania," and just how much sabotage was going on in instate recruiting.

But now it's all sunshine and roses, so it should be fun to see what kind of class they pull in for 2012. 

Seth

May 6th, 2011 at 1:10 PM ^

The timing is off from the tale I heard (which could just be a tale -- I in no way endorse it as truth because I can't verify it). I thought it was less of a "hey, you should transfer back home, that's best for you," but Carr throwing transfer papers at him on several occasions during the 2007 season and saying "if you don't want to be here, GTFO."

The only reason I'm sharing this without any verification is when I heard the story: the week after the MSU game in 2007 (when Mallett was terrible and Hart ran a fumble for a key 1st down we didn't deserve, and injured Henne saved the day).

At the very least there were strong rumors Mallett wasn't gellin' with Carr when Rich Rodriguez was just the guy having a National Championship season at WVU. Given that, I think his departure was more like a guy with a foot out the door saying "I'm leeeeeeaving" to the new staff, and the new staff kicking kicking the toe out of there and slamming the door behind him.

jmblue

May 6th, 2011 at 1:18 PM ^

Not that it really matters, but why didn't we deserve that first down?  I thought that was a great example of playing to the whistle by Hart.  He had the presence of mind to look for the ball, secure it, and then advance it (a good 10 yards, too).  

M-Wolverine

May 7th, 2011 at 12:26 AM ^

More seriously, Tater is referring in his Taterly way about the Boston Herald article that was mentioned on the board yesterday (among his other fantasies). It's not worth going over here, but it concerned the post season contacts claimed by the Malletts with both Lloyd and Rich. FWIW.

Seth

May 7th, 2011 at 8:41 AM ^

Yeah. It was Hinton's column too.

I'm saying I don't buy the Malletts' interpretation of events, because long before he transferred I was getting stories about him being a transfer risk and acid in the locker room.

Actually no, that's not what I'm saying: I'm saying I don't buy the general fans' interpretation of the Mallett family's interpretation. All Mr. and Mrs. Mallet said is that they really liked Carr, and that RR was kind of distant. The parents come off totally parental. If there were problems between Lloyd and their son, there's good reason to gloss over that. Privately I imagine it was much like my house: if I'm arguing with my teacher, my father's siding with the teacher.

When the story is told on Ryan Mallett and Michigan, I think it'll say he was kind of immature as an 18-year-old, but that he had a lot of family support. When Rich Rodriguez took over, and Carr and Loeffler were no longer there, and Michigan transitioned to a new (better) offense, the best thing for Ryan Mallett was to transfer to Arkansas. I'm glad he had success there, and I wish him success in the NFL.

If Carr told Ryan to leave, even if that seems underhanded and anti-RR, really it's the right thing to do. I've told clients before that we're not really a good fit for them, and suggested they move on to a competitor who can do better by them. It's a loss, but it's also a good way to run your business, because you get a reputation in the industry for integrity and doing right  by your clients. In college football, where what the parents and players say to each other can make a huge difference in your next recruiting cycle, this pays off. To the M fan it's like "dude, you sent away our last hope for a good quarterback!" but when Lloyd Carr tells Gunner Kiel or someone to go to Michigan, Mrs. Kiel knows the advice is honest, not just a coach shilling for his old school.

Carr has a lot of value to this program as an ambassador. He's one of only a few coaches who made it through his era with a reputation of integrity. If there was bad blood between him and the last staff, well, that's over now anyway.

M-Wolverine

May 7th, 2011 at 10:54 PM ^

Gone, didn't stay, wasn't a dick about it, whatever, good luck. I've moved beyond it.
<br>
<br>But I agree that I'd take anything the Malletts say with a grain of salt. I only have problems with people (not you) who want to take 50% of it as TRUTH (but not the rest of it) and believe Lloyd drove him off, or Rich ignored him, but not the other. Either you believe them 100%, or you question the tint of all of it. Otherwise it's just self-serving some "I KNEW it!" for something that doesn't really matter anymore.

chitownblue2

May 6th, 2011 at 1:06 PM ^

What being with a brainstem honestly felt Mallett was a good fit in the Rodriguez offense, including Rodriguez, who, according to the story you reference, didn't even talk to the kid?
<br>
<br>If you're going to quote that story, you'd better quote everything, not cherry pick the things that bolster your worldview of Carr.

Needs

May 6th, 2011 at 2:31 PM ^

And what being with a brainstem ever believed that Mallett came to UM for any reason other than the pro-style QB legacy and Scott Loeffler's reputation? If he wasn't gone after Mustain transferred from Arkansas, Carr and Manningham blew up at him on the sidelines and Carr threw transfer papers at him, he was gone gone gone when Loeffler was fired.

soup-er-UM

May 6th, 2011 at 12:19 PM ^

I hate to bring this up again, but if one accepts the premise that RR was going to be fired either this year or next year (it's doubtful he was going to beat OSU next year regardless of improvement, which likely would have spelled doom), the fantastic amount of Michigan/Ohio talent this year provides a good reason to fire him this year not next year.

Although it was really a result of no fault of Rich Rod's, there was such a large amount of negative press surrounding him that kids like Zettel were convinced to go elsewhere. If we were going to make a move at some point, last year seemed like the time to do it so we can take advantage of all this in-state talent.

kman23

May 6th, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^

I'm sure this wasn't why RR was fired when he was but I agree that a new slate was needed to win most of these recruits.

Can you imagine how lucky Hoke has been in terms of recruiting? He comes home to a loaded Ohio and Michigan HS class, OSU has major violation problems and MSU doesn't have a family connection lock in any top 5 Michigan HS senior like they normally do. I think Hoke deserves all the credit but this could just as much be luck as it is his skill (I don't think it is, just saying it could be).

kylebennett7127

May 6th, 2011 at 12:28 PM ^

I'm not sure I've read anywhere that Danny obrien would come too Michigan. he loves Tennessee and has visited state a lot...we have a better shot a Burbridge too now

WestSider

May 6th, 2011 at 12:31 PM ^

because PSU has 'nicer' hostesses. Seriously, I have never known a life long Michigan fan/player who would defect under those conditions. Not saying it didn't happen that way, but it makes me question the depth of his fondness for UM. Wasn't Fisher also a big UM fan, and went to Oregon with questions pending about possible violations there? 

NateVolk

May 6th, 2011 at 12:52 PM ^

There is definitely a different energy with Hoke and his approach to the in-state players. That and the tangible presence of Mattison seem to be huge factors in the recent gains.  MIchigan was always Michigan, but it was different and unknown to some the last three seasons.  

The Rodriguez questions always seems to come down to: how hard did he try to maintain the long-terms relationships within the University and in recruiting? v. Would it have mattered, because in reality he was unfairly judged and blackballed from the start?

Maybe Bacon's book will shed more light on that.

It is pretty obvious that a guy with the built-in relationships and ties can spend his time on the little things to atttract players rather than being stuck trying to just earn basic trust.  There's only so many hours in a day.

mackbru

May 6th, 2011 at 1:10 PM ^

So we can safely assume that RR would not have landed such a big in-state haul this year?  All these LBs, coupled with the likely DLs, seem uniquely compatible with (and drawn to) Hoke/Manball. Ultimately, then, the timing of the CC seems to be perfect, no?

bronxblue

May 6th, 2011 at 1:33 PM ^

I have always felt that RR's failings recruiting in state were because of his inability to field a defense with a coherent plan, and it bears out in who skipped town. Also, the stink that hung over him because of how he was initially received doomed him as well.
All that said, I am happy with the recruiting so far. Hoke and esp. Mattison deserve much of the praise, but so does the entire staff in hitting this first cycle running. While I will forever think RR could have been great here, I have come around to Hoke and co. Now he just needs to win.

bronxblue

May 6th, 2011 at 1:33 PM ^

I have always felt that RR's failings recruiting in state were because of his inability to field a defense with a coherent plan, and it bears out in who skipped town. Also, the stink that hung over him because of how he was initially received doomed him as well.
All that said, I am happy with the recruiting so far. Hoke and esp. Mattison deserve much of the praise, but so does the entire staff in hitting this first cycle running. While I will forever think RR could have been great here, I have come around to Hoke and co. Now he just needs to win.

Ace

May 6th, 2011 at 1:40 PM ^

Mario Ojemudia may have the most intense recruiting profile picture I've ever seen. It feels like he's staring into my soul.

Bluestreak

May 7th, 2011 at 3:33 AM ^

who thinks that RR had some bad luck with recruiting. In the sense that some of his high profile recruits didn't make it to campus or fizzled out.

Demar Dorsey, Dee Hart et all come to mind