Brief Bullets: Illinios Comment Count

Brian

Big Ten tourney time is always weird for content what with games on at noon.

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This was off an Irvin assist [Patrick Barron]

The light is on. Midseason complaining that Zak Irvin hadn't added very much to his game between his freshman and sophomore years was justified. Irvin was a bit more willing to get to the basket but he was a black hole that generated shots only for himself and the predictability of his game—Beilein once mentioned that he really needed to shot fake like, ever—was beginning to catch up to him now that the league had a scouting report on him.

Then Irvin had the light go on. Alex tweeted this out yesterday and it amply demonstrates Irvin's expanding game:

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He's developed pick and roll options other than meh pullup jumpers. (He's good at them; they're still way less efficient than, say, asking Aubrey Dawkins to do his best GRIII impression on an alley-oop.) He's generating shots for his teammates, which will eventually make the shots he does take better.

This is necessary if Michigan's going to return to the outrageous offensive efficiency that drove their Final Four/Big Ten Champions outfits. I've grumbled about Michigan's unusually low assist numbers for big chunks of the year. Led by Irvin, Michigan acquired 15 against the Illini.

I mean.

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Via Ace

The king of yesterday's assists. I cocked an eyebrow with about 11 minutes left when Michigan executed a beautiful team sequence that got Doyle a bunny. All five Michigan players touched it after Spike dumped it to Irvin in the corner:

  • Irvin drove baseline, drawing help D and kicking to
  • MAAR, who passed it to
  • Chatman standing in the short corner, who drew recovering attention. At this point
  • Spike, who had zero players looking at him or checking him because of the ball movement, cut to the elbow, again drawing a double team from an unprepared on-ball defender and Egwu; Spike drove, whereupon
  • Doyle was the recipient of an easy bucket at the rim.

It was a brief flashback to the last couple years, when Michigan would regularly delight with gorgeous basketball. It's coming back you guys.

Next year man. Caris offered some quotes about his upcoming NBA decision that sounded genuinely torn. Judge for yourself:

"It will probably be right up to the last day," LeVert said Thursday, following U-M's 73-55 win over Illinois in the Big Ten tournament.

As for his thoughts on returning to school or entering the draft, LeVert remains undecided.

"Coming back next year would be very fun for me and very beneficial for me and the team as well," LeVert said. "Going to the NBA would also be fun. That's a lifetime dream. It's definitely going to be a tough decision."

That sounds different than the Robinson/Stauskas decisions. As of a couple weeks ago, Sam Webb thought that LeVert was leaning towards returning. So that would be nice.

With or without him, though, Michigan should be very deep and reasonably experienced. An approximate depth chart:

PG: Walton, Albrecht
SG: LeVert, MAAR
SF: Dawkins, Robinson
PF: Irvin, Chatman, Wagner(?)
C: Doyle, Donnal, Wilson

Swap the 2-4 spots to your desire. It's hard to find enough minutes for everyone if LeVert comes back: if Walton, Irvin, and LeVert all get 30 minutes and Spike gets 20—estimates that seem conservative—then MAAR, Dawkins, Robinson, and Chatman are all fighting over 50 minutes a game. Even the scenario with LeVert gone those guys can comfortably split 80.

If Michigan stays healthy, I predict autobench complaining plummets.

MAAR will go at you. Nanna Egwu is not exactly a complete basketball player—I'll miss him getting outrebounded by his entire team—but he is very long and contests shots well. Abdur-Rahkman doesn't care about that. He will drive on anyone and get a reasonable shot up; if it doesn't go in he's set the team up for a Kobe assist. Another year of development and he's definitely a guy who can fill in the point guard minutes Spike will evacuate.

FWIW. Michigan did offer Wagner, as you would expect for a guy who flew in from Germany. Rivals's Eric Bossi gives a ballpark estimate of where he'd be if he was ranked:

His shot looks good and he's very good in pick and pop situations between 12 and 17 feet, he has good skill level, though he's perhaps a bit mechanical in his movements at this time, and he's a good high post passer who competes on both ends but needs strength.

"He's on the NBA radar but not as an early entry guy just yet," Bossi said. "He's more on radar as somebody to monitor when he makes it to a college program."

If he were a part of the 2015 class (and he would come in this fall), he'd be a top 20 to 40 type prospect as an American prep.

Not bad.

Comments

Fuzzy Dunlop

March 13th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

Great to hear that assessment of Wagner.  My early impression of him was that he was a potentially game-changine, 5-star level recruit, but then I started seeing people on the board suggest that we don't really need him, that Duncan Robinson would fill the same role, that another year of Max would be preferable, etc.  People were all over the place about what to expect from him.

If he is really the equivalent of a top 30ish recruit, he may in fact be a game-changer -- the first true stretch 4 that Beilein has had at Michigan since Evan Smotrzy . . . Evan Smtrye . . . Evan Metrics (but a lot better, hopefully).

I'm daydreaming about an upperclassman Ricky Doyle at center, Wagner at PF, and the typical assortment of Beilein studs at the 1-3 spots.  For the first time in forever (ht Disney) we may have a team with amazing offensive efficiency but also some real size/rebounding ability down low.

taistreetsmyhero

March 13th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^

the one where it should have been an easy bunny, but instead of jumping towards the basket for an uncontested dunk or layup, he jumped straight up in the air and attempted (and luckily made) a relatively difficult and awkward looking baby hook?

TorturedClassof11

March 13th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^

Bullets on yesterday's game and no mention (or gif) of the Spike behind-the-head assist!? I mean it was only one play but it was one I could watch/talk about until at least next season when he does something like it again.

NoNon

March 13th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

Years like this (and posts like this) are good reminders for fans of this basketball program to keep the bigger picture in mind: also to never forget the depths of where Beilein has rescued it from.

Years like this were the norm, not the exception far too recently. Can any fan of Michigan basketball a decade ago have ever imagined the 4-5 year run this program has just completed?

And looking ahead to the future, it's also comforting to know that JB has this program well positioned for sustained excellence regardless of how this season has gone. A squad in November that was hanging with Nova before the injuries return (hopefully) everyone but Max Bielfeldt. That's a tantalizing thought.

Imagine an entire offseason of growth and a 2015-16 season where some of this season's close losses turn to wins, some of those nailbiters turn into dominant performances. Viola. The future is still bright in Crisler. Trust Beilein. Trust the process. Go Blue!



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AC1997

March 13th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^

I am absolutely not an expert, but my understanding of the positions in Beilein's system seem to be different than Brian's.  Specifically, why on earth would Irvin be shown at PF after a paragraph describing his ball-screen improvement?  (Obviously Brian qualified his list with the interchangeable nature of the 2-4 spots.)

 

Here is how I would describe the positions:

PG - Primary ball handler, set up ball-screens, attack the rim (Morris, Burke, Stauskas-So)

SG - Secondary ball handler, runs a lot of screens too, also a shooter (Douglas, Hardaway, Walton-Fr., Levert-So)

SF - Lots of time parked in the corner for 3s, occassionally attacks/handles (Stauskas-Fr., Irvin-Fr., Levert-Fr.)

PF - Parked in the corner, rarely on-ball, attacks baseline (Novak, GR3, Dawkins)

C - Rebound, play D, set screens, make easy shots (Morgan, Doyle)

 

I see Dawkins at PF for sure since he still lacks ball-handling skills and will attack baseline a lot.  Irvin seems like he's getting closer to the SG than the PF and thus I think he's a 2/3 next year.  Robinson is a wildcard, but could even spend time at PF with his height.  Wilson is a C.  

 

Just my 2-cents.

NoHeartAnthony

March 13th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^

Beilein obviously tweaks his offense year to year, lessening or emphasizing the role of certain positions.  There does seem to be a common theme, but some of your positions and descriptions of those positions are off.

Walton, Burke, Morris, and Spike have always been ones.  These are the guys bringing the ball up the floor and initiating the offense.  They run a ton of ball screens, moreso in 2011-2013.  

Twos have been Stu, Tim in 2013, Levert/MAAR/some Irvin.  They'll run up with the one and have some primary ball duties, but also some screening.  They'll throw the pass on the pindown.  Run the middle PnR on the screen the screener action.  Overall, they're a blend between the 1 and 3.

Threes start from the corner where they can use their right hand as the dominant hand.  This could be Stauskas and THJ early in their careers where they sit in the corner drawing a man out of help.  Or Nik last year where he sprinted into ballscreen action or cut backdoor.  (Nik did play the 2 occasionally when they were bothering him mid-season).

Fours start where their left hand can be dominant.  Think Novak and Chatman in the future.  The action, the evolving offensive structure, and the fact that GR3 wasn't strong with his left hand have resulted in less ball screens.  They'll be used in pindowns, coming off the shuffle screen, and drawing help away on the strongside when the 3 (Irvin, Nik) is coming off a PnR.

Fives are pretty obvious, but it'll be interesting to see how this evolves with Donnal/Wagner.

In summation, here's a generalized view of this year:

1 - Spike 2 - MAAR 3 - Irvin 4 - Dawkins 5 - whoever.  

1 - Spike 2 - Irvin 3 - Dawkins 4 - Chatman 5 - whoever

Seem to be our most popular lineups.  Dawkins runs more PnR as the season has gone on.  But he'll do this as the 3 (as I type this, he hit Doyle while playing the 4)

AC1997

March 13th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^

I like your descriptions a little better than mine, but you ultimately made my point for me:

  • Irvin = 2/3 hybrid (more 3 than 2 this year)
  • Dawkins = 3/4 hybrid (more 4 than 3 this year)
  • Chatman = 4/3 hybrid (ideally a 4, but maybe could become a 3 eventually)
  • Robinson = 3/4 hybrid (I am picturing him as a 4 initially, but no idea really)
  • Wagner = No clue.  He would be their third "tweener" at the 4/5 spot with Donnal and Wilson so you figure someone gets time at the 4 once they get in shape and learn the offense there.  (Of course this assumes he even comes this year)

 

The other thing that this versatility does would be match-ups.  I know that Beilein likes a relatively short bench and our thoughts of seeing a deeper rotation this year were dashed by foot injuries, but next year they can play the hot hand or play match-ups.  Think about a 1-3-1 defense with this lineup:

  1. Walton (our best defender in the first half of the season) 
  2. Rahk (our best defender in the second half of the season)
  3. Levert or Irvin (long arms, quick feet)
  4. Chatman (came on late in the year defensively and has length)
  5. Wilson (athletic, quick, tall, shot blocker)

Then you switch that up for some instant offense:

  1. Spike
  2. Irvin (if Levert doesn't return)
  3. Dawkins (huge potential)
  4. Robinson (three point specialist)
  5. Doyle (showed some flashes of ball screen ability)

 

AC1997

March 13th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^

Also, while i would love for Wagner to be a top-40 recruit, I think that is optimistic.  There was another scouting report floating around that was giving him very generic compliments and said that he was a fringe prospect that needed work.  I would have guessed him to be more like 75-100 at best.  

 

Either way - he'd be a nice addition.