Brady Hoke And The Nature Of Information
Why is your name all wavy, Wade?
Three years ago when Michigan was waddling about gently poking jowly coaches of the Midwest in search of their next head football coach, I relayed a ton of different things that hit my inbox about Kirk Ferentz and Jim Grobe and Greg Schiano and, yes, Brady Hoke. Many of them seemed ludicrous even at the time, like Michigan offering Ferentz a massive paycut to become Michigan's coach or Greg Schiano accepting the job before changing his mind (twice!), but are now part of what passes for the unofficial history of those maniacal three weeks. It was a weird time.
I tried to balance the inherently contradictory reports by relaying the things I'd heard and laying out what I thought based on those things, but from a distance of three years I think I made a mistake in my coverage. That mistake was assuming that all information being passed was a good-faith attempt to help Michigan fans figure out where the search stood at that point. It did not occur to me that while that assumption was probably correct about the people directly emailing me I had no way to judge the sincerity or connectedness of the people passing them information.
So. Any Michigan message board you pick has both shadowy insiders and now moderators throwing out Brady Hoke's name a "very serious" candidate to be Michigan's head coach. I've gotten the rumor myself from someone I trust, citing solid sources within the athletic department. But this is not then. I'm not going to rush to my keyboard and spit out all the reasons Hoke is not a plausible candidate for the Michigan job like I did three years ago.
I would if I thought there was even the slightest chance Hoke would replace Rich Rodriguez in early January, because that would be the most insane coaching switch of all time. This is not going to happen. Brady Hoke is not a serious candidate for the Michigan job. He is not any sort of candidate. If Dave Brandon was willing to hire Hoke to coach Michigan, Rodriguez would already be out the door because there would be a dozen people he'd rather have coaching Michigan than Rodriguez. Unless meteors hit both Jim Harbaugh and Rich Rodriguez, the chance Brady Hoke is Michigan's coach in 2011 is zero point zero percent.
Period.
Yes, single sentence paragraph time.
Do you know how I know this? Because three years ago the rumors about Hoke were heavy enough that I scurried to the keyboard to point out this was a guy with one winning season, that 7-5, at a MAC school. While he's a plausible candidate for the Minnesota job now, back then he wasn't a plausible candidate for the job he was actually at. If Ball State's job was open they wouldn't have hired a coach with Brady Hoke's resume. And yet there were rumblings from within Fort Schembechler that had everyone panicked, just like today.
The obvious conclusion is that there are people who know and like Hoke in the athletic department, who hate everyone else who's ever been rumored for the Michigan job, and there are credulous people willing to relay anything that comes from a person with a job in Schembechler Hall. None of these people are Dave Brandon.
Brady Hoke will not coach Michigan in 2011. You may resume your day-to-day lives.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:24 PM ^
You're right, Rich Rod would get more of the benefit of the doubt than Hoke would. Why? Because when Rich Rod was hired, he had BCS bowl wins, conference championships, 10 win seasons, and 7 years of almost uninterrupted success and had turned his team into the class of the conference. Brady Hoke would have come in with one winning season, a 7-5 record at Ball State.
Given that, I would be proud to stay that Rich Rod had earned a bit longer of a leash than Hoke. Rich Rod has shown he is at least capable of turning a program into a national title contender. Hoke did not have that background.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:56 PM ^
You're comparing a team like WVU which had 2 undefeated regular seasons in 1988 and 1993 to Ball State which has never won a bowl game. There's a huge difference between the two. This doesn't mean Hoke COULD have done that.
Also Rodriguez's track record got a hell of a lot better when Miami and V. Tech left the Big East. Those 8 and 9 win seasons became 10 and 11.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:45 PM ^
What?
If you have a good record, you get more slack. Rodriguez has at least proven that he can take a team to the BCS, beat out of conference teams, and overall is still regarded as an offensive innovator in CFB.
Brady Hoke has never been the head coach of a BCS program, has never been to a BCS bowl, and has no proven track record of success.
So of course Rodriguez would get more slack. That's like saying Urban Meyer or Nick Saban would get more slack than Brady Hoke: Duh.
December 10th, 2010 at 4:26 PM ^
...had been the hire instead of Rodriguez, then it would have been a hire motivated by continuity. In that scenario, losing seasons would have been very difficult to stomach. Hoke would also have been significantly responsible for any exodus of transfers. If Hoke was the coach and Mallet transfers then there's no excusing it on account of being a bad system fit. Hoke would have been hired to keep the ball rolling and if he had posted 3 & 5 win seasons then I'm not sure he would have survived after that.
With Rodriguez as the hire, it's not that he gets a "pass" so much as it's a case of him being hired for a different reason. Rodriguez brings a new system hence there wasn't really any expectation of continuity (although clearly many fans rather blithely expected continuity of won-loss record). The Rodriguez hire is analogous to rebuilding the engine and thus more patience is required. As the cliche goes, Rome wasn't built in a day.
December 10th, 2010 at 4:33 PM ^
Not that you'd want to know more about the Auburn situation but there is a pretty in-depth look at that place on tigerdroppings.com. Considering the shenanigans going on down there, it actually is not that surprising that Chizik was hired.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:23 PM ^
Those guys all were hired after a coach chose to leave a program. You don't fire a guy who had three straight top-10 finishes at WVU so you can replace him with a guy who had one good season out of six at Ball State and finished ahead of the four terrible teams at the bottom of the MWC this season.
December 10th, 2010 at 4:10 PM ^
Tuberville didn't choose to leave Auburn. He was flat out fired.
Michigan isn't West Virginia. The Big Ten isn't the Big East. There's something called fit and, while it's apparent Rodriguez has gotten little support for his desire to change the culture of the program, it doesn't seem like he's helped himself along the way either.
A small example regarding fit: Do you think Hoke would have seriously recruited Demar Dorsey at Michigan? I would wager the answer is no because his time at the Michigan program told him he wasn't going to get into school.
December 10th, 2010 at 5:17 PM ^
If Rodriguez had not recruited Dorsey, we would be in the exact same position we are now. Unless you think the potential disappointment of people who follow recruiting too closely outweighs the chance to get an extremely gifted player on campus (a very dumb position to hold) there was zero reason not to do it.
I know Lloyd Carr "seriously recruited" Marques Slocum (for a few years in fact, even after he couldn't initially get into Michigan), Boubacar Cissoko, Kelly Baraka, Larry Harrison, and assorted other academic weak-links and/or non-classy individuals. Nobody gave a shit because they had already decided "He havez integrity is MEEECHIGAN MAN!"
If your point is that assorted dumbasses will give Brady Hoke the benefit of the doubt for things that any coach would do but won't do the same for Rodriguez, then I don't think it is a point that our AD should consider.
December 10th, 2010 at 6:38 PM ^
I think Brady Hoke is piloting the B2 Stealth bomber tomorrow. That's what I was told.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:05 PM ^
Unless meteors hit both Jim Harbaugh and Rich Rodriguez
what if they were guided by a "laser"?
MOOOOOOOWAHHHHHHHAAAAAAHHAAAAAAAAAH!
December 10th, 2010 at 3:45 PM ^
On the heads of sharks?
December 10th, 2010 at 3:06 PM ^
Hoke's going to be the Coach. Fact. My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Brandon with Hoke at 31 Flavors last night. So, I guess it's pretty serious.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:30 PM ^
Save Ferris!
December 10th, 2010 at 3:07 PM ^
I can now sleep better at night that such preposterous rumor was put to bed by someone with uber blogging intelligence.
But can someone tell me why Hoke is supposed to be a "Michigan Man?" Did he play here? How long did he coach here? What some of contributions has Hoke made to any legends to attain legendary status? Did he crap his pants at some critical time and the act lifted his players to conquer better athletes? I don't get that one.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^
except for RR. For some reason known but to the media, he just can't be one, honest.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:08 PM ^
I saw Hoke at the top of the main page, instantaneously jumped to dumb conclusions and almost had a heart attack. Maybe throw Debord up there tomorrow and finish the job, okay Brian?
December 10th, 2010 at 3:16 PM ^
Still a little queasy.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:45 PM ^
Saw Brady Hoke in the header and damn near fell out of my chair.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:47 PM ^
It'd be changed by a mod for being a misleading header.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:10 PM ^
I'm fascinated with the dynamics Brian suggests. Why would someone think it's valuable to assert that Hoke's the guy? How does that help? Yet, it seems like that's what's going on. There's gotta be a great thesis in there for a B-student, poli-sci or sociology about the nature of leakages, rumors, factions and multiple, multiple head fakes. I doubt that what seems to be a disinformation campaign is really consciously directed from the top. It's organic and happens all the time. That's why it's so interesting. There would seem to be a great back story with a lot of practical application if it could be told and analyzed.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:19 PM ^
There is nothing that makes a coaching candidate more attractive (aside from, you know, winning) than having his name thrown around for other jobs. The more Brady Hoke's name is heard in connection with various gig, the more some AD is going to think he is the hot name that he has to get. Hoke could easily toil away for years at San Diego State and no one would really notice.
The people who like Hoke want him to be successful, so they are trying to start a rumor that gets enough attention that people in the MSM start mentioning his name in their mindless "Coach X has been fired, University Y should look into Mike Leach, JH, Dan Mullen, Charlie Strong, and _______" articles. They don't necessarily think their rumor is going to make Hoke Michigan's coach this year, but if they can get his name to come up every single year for a number of vacancies, they increase his chances of getting a good shot somewhere and making him a more attractive candidate down the line.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:37 PM ^
You throw out crazy rumors in the hopes that they'll get traction and soon the population not only believes it, but will actively campaign for it.
It's hard to find a non political example of this, as it's used in politics so often (with great success!) Having some random source spout off something completely false, then getting it into the news cycle. Suddenly, people believe this random falsehood and can't be convinced otherwise.
Apologies in advance for this political example, but it's actually one of the least controversial ones in the last few cycles: Barack Obama's birth certificate. He has one. Most of us are pretty sure he didn't forge one to become president. However, once upon a time somebody said that he didn't have one. And now some percentage of the country believes it.
Applying this back to Hoke, there will be some percentage of the Michigan fanbase that thinks Hoke is a viable candidate (3%!). This percentage has nowhere to go but up as long as the Hoke to Michigan rumors keep flowing.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:10 PM ^
DB has an ingenious reason for approaching the coaching issue the way he has. I don't think I've heard anyone truly support the way he's going about this. I really feel like there's something to this that absolutely no one has though of but DB himself. I hope he's right or I will have lost a little respect in his pimp hand!
December 10th, 2010 at 3:10 PM ^
I have a few serious questions about Hoke. I don't make it much of a habit to follow the coaches of teams outside the B10, so I really don't know much about him other than that he was a decent position coach at Michigan.
1. What are considered to be Hoke's strengths / weaknesses as a coach? For example, we all know that Les Miles is considered to be a great recruiter, offensive gambler, but a crappy clock manager. How about Hoke?
2. How is BH (yes, since his name is being used so frequently now, I have gone to initials, to join with RR, JH, DB and LC) as a recruiter? Does he have strong recruiting ties to any region?
3. How is Hoke perceived within Schembechler Hall?
Not that I expect this guy to be our next coach, but since he is being talked about I like to come to an informed opinion either way based upon more than the fact that he is overweight and people think that he looks like Jeff from Curb.
December 10th, 2010 at 4:00 PM ^
With midwest ties having gone to Ball State (from Ohio), and having coached at Toledo, Grand Valley State and Western Michigan (under Jack Harbaugh, I believe). He was really popular with Lloyd and the coaches when he left, so he'd at least be a Schembechler Hall fit.
He may not be ready career wise to take over Michigan, but he'll probably be a real good coach one day.
Edit: Couple of quickies-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/ncaa/11/11/san-diego-sta…
http://www.sandiegomagazine.com/media/San-Diego-Magazine/February-2009/…
December 10th, 2010 at 3:13 PM ^
This post seems rather contradictory. Brian concedes that only Dave Brandon knows what Dave Brandon is thinking, then unequivocally states that Hoke is not a serious candidate. Huh?
I think Harbaugh is the obvious choice, but if we don't really know what Brandon's thinking, then why do we assume he's not going to go against CW? And I don't mean this just in reference to Hoke, but to other coaches who have yet to be mentioned.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^
He's not saying that he knows what Brandon is thinking. He's just saying that there are probably 37 coaches above Hoke on the objective observer's coaching wish list.
Brady Hoke is to the head coaching job at Michigan as the HHS Secretary is to the Presidency under the 25th amendment; he's technically a candidate, but a BUNCH of shit would have to go down before the job would fall to him.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:55 PM ^
But wow'd his party, then was elected President.
December 10th, 2010 at 4:13 PM ^
Would that be Harbaugh?
December 10th, 2010 at 6:38 PM ^
With 25,000 points, you know better. The post you replied to was addressing succession as laid out in the Constitution, not making a statement about anyone's qualifications as picked by the electorate or as a candidate running, or as an actually elected official, so on and so forth. Come on now. First rule of MGoBlog...
December 11th, 2010 at 8:52 PM ^
Which you just violated. ;-) But he WASsaying Hoke was behind the qualifications of X number of other guys. My post wasn't political. It's more a rorschach test on how people view Hoke (or Obama, I guess). It can either be taken as showing exceptional ability can make you advance further faster than your credentials justify, that succeeding is more than just track record...or can be taken in a way that people can get promoted without significant career accomplishments. But I think that it's more people not liking that maybe Hoke might be more exceptional than they want to believe (if he were to get the job) than any perceived political slight. Auburn's coach has shown that a not so glorious track record precludes success. My statement was only political in that it threatened some people's preconceived notions; it made no value judgement.
December 10th, 2010 at 11:34 PM ^
And just think, M-Wolverine: I thought you were a moron when you were only saying Beilein's system doesn't work! Thanks for the confirmation. How's that damn "never going to win anything" "scum" Coughlin doing this year, btw?
December 10th, 2010 at 3:21 PM ^
edit: double post.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:20 PM ^
A completely speculative possibility for why Brady Hoke's name keeps coming up:
The general assumption is that Harbaugh is the only replacement option for Rodriguez next year. It will be one of those two men heading the team. If Brandon sees Harbaugh as a can't miss replacement, and see this as his best, maybe only, opportunity to bring him to Ann Arbor, then he might just have to pull the trigger immediately to get it done. In short, he might just be too good to pass up, despite the fact the Rodriguez is showing quantifiable improvements.
All of this is based on the assumption that Rodriguez stays with the team. I think it's 95% likely that he stays here if he's given the option to do so. He even came out and told everyone he wants to be a Michigan Man at the football bust, but the possibility exists that he's fed up with the negativity, fed up with waiting for Brandon to decide, and fed up with dealing with all of the crap he's been forced to deal with due to what seems to be a divided house. If this is the case, and someone like Florida makes him an offer he can't refuse in a place where the talent required to be successful is already there, he just might jump ship and start fresh down south.
If this happened, and Harbaugh decides he'd rather be an NFL guys, Michigan would be left in a bind. I think/hope that this remote possibility has at least crossed the minds of people in the athletic department. They likely have some sort of contingency plan in place with a list of guys who at the least a) would jump at the opportunity, b) don't have skeletons that would embarrass the university, and c) have some semblance of head coaching success. While I don't think Brady Hoke is anyone's 1A choice to replace anybody, it sounds like he's got some people on the inside who think highly of him, and those people have him on this potential list.
For the record, I think Rodriguez deserves at least another year. He's building something that could be special, and I think a little bit of patience is required. I also am not totally convinced that Harbaugh is guaranteed to have the kind of success here that he's had at Stanford. If he hadn't played quarterback for Michigan, I don't know if all his supporters would be quite as gung ho about grabbing him as they currently are. While it's nice to have someone who understands and has been a part of the tradition we have, it doesn't necessarily promise that the person will have any kind of success.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:29 PM ^
Could happen ... who knows? I certainly don't ...
Anyway, if Hoke is our coach on January 10 we'll have seen the worst case of bungling in the history of Michigan football.
December 10th, 2010 at 4:35 PM ^
I'd say that there's a 0.0% chance Hoke will be here next year if either Rodriguez or Harbaugh is available, but there are plausible scenarios in which neither is available.
I also agree with your last paragraph.
December 10th, 2010 at 11:08 PM ^
Actually the fact that he was quarterback at Michigan is just extremely fortuitous. We'd have very little shot at a coach of his quality otherwise. Give the fans who want the guy a little credit.
His coaching job the last 4 years on every measurable benchmark has dwarfed what has gone on here with Rodriguez.
December 11th, 2010 at 12:00 PM ^
The Pac 10 is way down this year so how do we know what his quality is? I'm mean Washington finished third in the conference. OOC of Sacramento St., Wake, and ND. Manged to beat a down USC squad by 2 on a last play FG and a terrible Washington St. by 10 (yes we stunk the joint up against UMass). The only team that finished ahead of them beat them by 3 TDs despite falling behind 21-3 to start the game. Stanford led at the half and collapsed in the second half giving up 28 and not scoring to lose 52-31.
December 11th, 2010 at 12:17 PM ^
4-8, 5-7, 8-5 does not "dwarf" 3-9, 5-7, 7-5 (with a chance for 8).
The only reason to be more impressed with one coach than the other is because you still refuse to believe that the roster Rodriguez had at his disposal when he started actually coaching games was roughly equivalent to what Harbaugh was working with simply because "we're Michigan".
December 10th, 2010 at 3:26 PM ^
"... obvious conclusion is that there are people who know and like Hoke in the athletic department, who hate everyone else who's ever been rumored for the Michigan job ..."
If that's true (for whatever reason), what do you suppose it is about Hoke that endears him to some people in the department? Ideas:
* He is identified with Lloyd Carr, who presided over the most recent prosperous era of UMich football.
* He _sounds_ a bit like Lloyd in interviews.
* He coached in the Midwest (Ball State) where football (/s) is played under a unique set of rules.
* He's a burly fellow that practically has "ball control" tattooed on his forehead. He probably is not fond of our 120-lb (/s) wide receivers and 5-foot (/s) running backs. To put it another way, he probably looks like a Midwestern football coach to people.
Anyone have any ideas? Obviously his recent record at SDSU looks nice.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:51 PM ^
Nicholls (FCS) 4-7; NM St. 2-10; Utah St. 4-7; New Mex 1-11; Wyoming 3-9; Colo St. 3-9; UNLV 2-10 combined they are 44 games below the break even point. The only team with a winning record Air Force at 8-4.
SDSU had some close games against much better competition who were probably over looking them. They also lost to a very mediocre BYU team.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:30 PM ^
clearly scratching BH off the list. Now how about a post regarding defensive coordinators? Lot of talk on the board re: Chuck Heater. Any thoughts on a possible move to AA. Or even a Mike Trgovac?
December 10th, 2010 at 3:41 PM ^
How ironic would it be for Heater to cool RichRod's hot seat?
December 10th, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^
Geez Brian, I saw the name Brady Hoke in the header, and damn near had a stroke. No. I really mean my chest tightened up. Vision got blury. Mild cold sweat. Head rush.
Please don't do that again.
I am over 50. I take a baby aspirin every day. That and blood pressure medicine.
Please don't do that again. Have some kind of special header - maybe with kittens and calming piped in music - that clearly shows that there is no danger of insanity in the upcoming post.
I now need to go lie down.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:43 PM ^
there are a lot of fans out there that hope your right. Now, I have been instructed by Profit that if I make a comment that suggest I'm in the "know" to clarify how that might be. I do personal know the two successful former players that are very close friends with Les Miles that rented the private jet and paid for the fuel etc, etc to go pick-up Les three years ago when Les called three times that evening waiting for a call that never came. Man that sucked. At this time, these same gentlemen know nothing of Les coming here. That said, Brian I think you would have to agree, the Athletic Department itself is quite different than it was three years ago (all for the better). All the former players I know, support the current coach and they are very concerned that DB has not told Rich he has the job next year. Hopefully Profit will not come in like a B2 and drop a nuke neg on me.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:46 PM ^
Uh, this post should be negged. It doesnt have that stupid CC tag.
Seriously, Hoke is coming. I mean, Art Renger said it was 90 percent gonna happen. Cant argue with that Brian, you silly dude.
Ok, for real serious: The tailgate bet stands if Hoke is the coach on 9/3/2011. He's not coming here. Its one or the other. There is no other option. Anyway trying to pass off any other info is full of crap and ulterior motives.
December 10th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^
And if I read the prior posts correctly, the Press Conference announcing all of this is scheduled to happen at 1:07PM... YESTERDAY. I'm guessing that the Chinese or Russians are jamming the internet and It's already happened. Long Live Hoke. Or, where there Hoke, there's Hope. Maybe not.
December 10th, 2010 at 3:46 PM ^
is not an expert on college corches.
yes, he has a right to his opinion and this IS his blag.
but....i, for one, welcome our new HOKE overlords.
anybody got dark blue's phone number? I just have to kiss that FACE!
December 10th, 2010 at 3:49 PM ^
i, for one, welcome our new HOKE overlords
Kent Brockman FTW
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