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Boot On The Other Throat

By Brian — September 26th, 2011 at 11:11 AM — 128 comments
Filed under:
  • 2011 san diego state
  • blake countess
  • courtney avery
  • game columns
  • game theory
  • i am slowly mollifying as the hoke era proceeds
  • jake ryan
  • MANBALL is +EV
  • mark huyge
  • mark huyge is shifty eyed dog
  • michigan marching band
  • mike martin
  • passing concepts
  • red zone efficiency
  • ryan van bergen
  • ryan van bergen philosopher king
  • troy woolfolk
  • vincent smith

9/24/2011 – Michigan 28, San Diego State 7 – 4-0

imagebracelets-doylebrunson2005hokesmug

A long, long time ago now a Lloyd-Carr coached Michigan team was struggling through the 2005 season when they met Northwestern. A lot of throws to Tacopants (Jason Avant's 11-foot-tall imaginary friend) on both sides later, Michigan emerged with a 33-17 win and I embarked on one of the first of an endless procession of stat-nerd diatribes about the evils of punting.

You've probably heard it already: punting decisions have not kept pace with the increasingly offensive nature of the game, leaving coaches in a perpetual state of risk- and win-avoidance. Romer paper, Pulaski High, Mathlete chart. Etc.

In this particular Northwestern game, though, Carr went for it on fourth and five from the Northwestern 23, a decision I thought was too aggressive(!). When paired with a number of similarly aggressive calls from earlier that season, it seemed like a sea change for the old man:

In multiple cases he's made tough, correct decisions: going on fourth and goal from the one against Wisconsin, pounding it into the line twice against Michigan State, etc. Even when the strategy has backfired, he accepts the downside and persists in a more aggressive posture.

In context, the Penn State gaffe seems more like one last hit of that sweet Bombay Popsicle* snuck in-between rehab sessions than evidence of 1970s thinking taking hold. Lloyd Carr has checked himself in to the Betty Ford Center for Coaches Addicted to Low Variance. I wouldn't expect a flying-colors discharge any time soon, but he's made the first, biggest step.

*[I don't know either.]

That change lasted into the fourth quarter of that year's Ohio State game. Having acquired a two-score lead by converting a fourth and inches around the Michigan 40, Carr reverted to his primitive instincts at the crucial moment. With three minutes left from the Ohio State 40, he called for a wide receiver screen on third and ten. It gained six yards. With a two point lead, three minutes on the clock, no Ohio State timeouts left, and a fourth and four on the Ohio State 34, Carr punted. Ohio State drove for a touchdown; Carr would never again have the opportunity to kill a game against the Buckeyes.

In the moment, Carr choked. Six years on that single decision seems like the best way to explain why a lot Michigan fans found his tenure frustrating despite its high rate of success: the program was perpetually making poor decisions because a combination of fear and arrogance. Something could go wrong if you made a high variance decision, and Michigan could spit on expected value because This Is Michigan. See any game in which Michigan acquired an 18-point lead or the first half of the Orange Bowl for confirmation.

Carr coached like he had a kickass running game and killer defense no matter the facts, which was the difference between being a legend and a being a B+ coach who lost the battle with Tressel authoritatively. Hell, even Tressel blew games when he failed to adjust to the reality that sometimes his defense and special teams were not enough, and he ran roughshod over the Big Ten for nine years.

-------------------------------------------

Part of the reason a segment of the Michigan fanbase (including the author) blew up at Hoke's hire is because it seemed to represent a return to that expectation-spurning 1970s decision-making.

Brady Hoke put a lot of those fears to rest by going for—and getting—the win against Notre Dame with eight seconds left. That decision was a no-brainer. If the field goal team had run out onto the field, I would have been livid. That was a test he passed, but it was one with a low bar.

On Saturday, Hoke sent out the punting team with about two and a half minutes left in the first half. It was fourth and two around midfield, and I was mildly peeved. It was not the percentage play, but I've watched a lot of football and it seemed too much to hope that even the rootin'est, tootin'est, eyepatch-wearingest pirate of a head coach would go for it. Needing more than a sneak and up fourteen in the first half, the world punts. My peevishness was directed at football coaches in general, not Hoke in particular.

And then.

And then an angel came down from the sky, and signaled timeout. Great trumpets erupted from the flagpoles, playing a fanfare as a golden staircase descended. Each of the steps was engraved with the names of World Series of Poker winners. Down from the clouds strode Doyle Brunson, clad in a jacket of hundred-dollar bills. And lo, Texas Dolly spaketh unto the people: "check-raise." Brady Hoke sent the offensive line onto the field.

This was a really, really good decision. Even if you don't believe the exact outlines of the Mathlete's calculations, it is not close: average offense versus average defense means the break-even line is around eight yards. This was not an average situation. Michigan had Denard Robinson against a pretty horrible run defense. And that number does not take into account the game situation. If Michigan gets the first down they are almost certainly robbing San Diego State of a possession. Punting gets you thirty, forty yards of field position. Getting the first down puts you in good position to score and is essentially another +1 in turnover margin. You need two yards and you have Denard Robinson.

(caption) Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson breaks away from the San Diego State defense for a big gain in the second quarter. Robinson rushed for 200 yards and three touchdowns on 21 carries, a 9.5-yards-per-carry average. He struggled in the passing game, however, completing just 8 of 17 passes for 93 yards with two interceptions.  *** After jumping out to a 21-0 lead by halftime, courtesy of three rushing touchdowns by Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson, the Wolverines turned the ball over three times in the second half, but held on to beat coach Brady Hoke's former team, the San Diego State Aztecs 28-7 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. Photos taken on Saturday, September 24, 2011. ( John T. Greilick / The Detroit News )

stealing a joke from the internet: the guy on the right looks like he just looked into the Ark of the Covenant. via the News.

One speed option later Michigan was en route to the endzone and had essentially ended the game. Without that massively +EV decision they go into halftime up maybe 14, maybe 11, maybe 7 points. That ugly third quarter becomes the gut-check time most were predicting before the game. Maybe Michigan comes out on top (24-21, say). Maybe not. That didn't happen because when Michigan had its boot on San Diego State's neck, Hoke called Z 22 stomp right.

The Lloyd Carr example above shows we don't know that Hoke's going to do this consistently, that he'll stick to the non-pejorative MANBALL when the pressure is at its greatest, but so far so good. Even my doubts about Hoke's ability to math up in the waning moments of an Ohio State game are faint. When things go wrong he does not scowl or pout or throw headsets like Rich Rodriguez or Brian Kelly or Bo Pelini. He does not go on tilt. He calmly talks to guys about what in the hell they were thinking.

Hoke continues to leave best-case scenarios in the dust. Saturday night I watched Dennis Erickson punt on fourth and five from the USC 37 and thought "my coach would never do that." Then I watched Erickson chew out the punter who put the ball in the endzone because that's what happens when you punt from the 37 and thought "my coach would never do that."

That felt good. It felt invent-a-time-machine-to-assure-yourself-its-all-going-to-be-okay good. It feels like Michigan has finally learned how to gamble.

+EV Non-Bullets

Boy do I want to play poker with certain people on the internet. Evaluating the decision has popped up on every Michigan message board. It's mostly been met with praise, but man, there are a lot of people who can't estimate and multiply out there. Maybe it's Carr Stockholm syndrome.

Photoset. The SDSU photoset comes via Eric Upchurch and the Ann Arbor Observer:


A reminder: anything on the MGoBlog photostream is creative-commons licensed, free to use for non-commercial applications. Attribution to Eric Upchurch, the Observer, and MGoBlog is appreciated.

Mark Huyge is delighted to be here. From the above SDSU photoset.

huyge-1huyge-2huyge-3

It's not quite the Molk death glare. It's more like Shifty-Eyed Dog.

Try to look at Mark Huyge ever again without having that play in your head.

Eric also managed to get a picture of Denard looking sad after a win, which I thought was not possible, and this shot of a fully-padded Van Bergen about to opine on Kant:

ryan-van-bergen-kant

That's a great question. Just as our rationality leads us to a belief in an objective reality, Kant believed there is an objective morality we can locate from the same process. The Categorical Imperative is an absolute, fundamental moral law on par with Minnesota losing to teams from the Dakotas. Things are either right or wrong—there are no gray areas, and context does not apply. You could call him the BJ Daniels of philosophy*.

*[Ten-cent summary of Kantian philosophy cribbed from Three Minute Philosophy, which is terrific. Philosophers wishing to quibble with my paraphrase of a comedic summary are invited to consider the moral consequences of their actions and also jump in a lake. USF fans wishing to WOO BJ DANIELS can skip to the latter.]

And the internet eeeed Countess. When Troy Woolfolk headed to the sidelines, all Michigan fans everywhere winced. When Blake Countess replaced JT Floyd in the third quarter, all Michigan fans everywhere prepared for the deluge.

It never came, and as a result everyone from my uncle to the internet to the newspapers are having little freakouts about Michigan's #4 corner. I am with all of you. The only thing stopping Countess from having a few PBUs or interceptions was Ryan Lindley's inability to throw the ball anywhere near the guys Countess had blanketed but Lindley targeted anyway.

For most of the third quarter I stopped watching the offensive backfield and started watching downfield coverage and while I won't be able to confirm this on the tape I think Countess was doing really well even when people weren't going after him. I'm with the rest of the internet when I suggest that Troy Woolfolk should take the Minnesota game off to recover from his multiple nagging injuries so we can see some more of the freshman.

I thought Avery did well, too. He had a third-down slant completed on him and was the DB victimized on the touchdown but in both cases he was right there tackling/raking at the ball. Is he doing something wrong I'm not perceiving yet? Because I think he's playing better than Woolfolk, who gave up some groan-worthy easy completions. (I don't blame him for allowing Hillman to bounce on one third down conversion because he was clearly held.)

Release the Martin. This week in the I-told-you-so files: Mike Martin is just fine. His good day last week was obscured by EMU never throwing and having quite a bit of success attacking away from him. Against SDSU he was nigh unblockable, bowling a veteran offensive line over backwards multiple times and drawing holding calls left and right. Craig Roh had two big plays and will show up doing little things when I do the UFR; Will Campbell had a couple of line-pushing plays. Hillman's YPC was still over five, so there are issues but I think a big chunk of them are localizable to…

Problems. So… everyone's talking up Jake Ryan, too. I'm with everyone in a general, long-term sense but a little less enthused about his performance on Saturday. One of the results of the first few weeks of UFRing/picture paging is that whenever the opponent tries to get outside I immediately focus on Ryan. Result from last week: three "aaargh Ryan" screams that no one in my section comprehended. He's still giving up the corner way too easy.

Also, there are two caveats to an otherwise encouraging performance from the secondary. One: Lindley and his receivers were flat bad as a group. Drops, bad routes, and bad throws artificially boosted Michigan's efficiency against him. Some of that was caused by pressure. Some of it was just a crappy opponent. Two: I wonder if Michigan's familiarity with the SDSU offense allowed them to beat the Aztecs' favorite routes into Michigan DBs heads.

Still, 5.3 YPA and actual depth at corner. +1 Mallory.

Offensive construction bits. Another week, another confirmation that running Denard is the offense. While I still groan whenever they line up under center, snaps from there were limited. I would really prefer it if they never ran I-form power on first and ten again, though. They've mixed in some inexplicably effective short play action so far; if they can't run that will probably dry up.

Things I liked: That screen to Smith. The essence of an RPS+3 is when three offensive linemen have no one to block for 30 yards. And then the much-discussed speed option debuted. I'd gotten a couple insider emails telling me it was part of the offense but thought it would be extremely bad form to publish that, so I'd been waiting. It was quite a debut.

I'm hoping we see Borges add wrinkles at the same rate Rodriguez did. He'll have to to keep the run offense ahead of the wolves. He's off to a good start.

vincent-smith-sdsu

via the Detroit News.

Tailbacks. I'm suddenly happy with Michigan's tailback situation after Vincent Smith made a lot of yards on his own, including the above touchdown where he kept his balance at about the five and managed to drag a safety into the endzone. There was also the zone play where he squeezed through a crack in the line it's possible literally no other D-I back would have fit through.

Toussaint, meanwhile, didn't have the yards Smith did but ran hard on the inside; I still like him best but understand if they're going to split duties between the top two. I feel bad for Shaw—maybe it's time to put him on kickoffs? He's got speed Smith does not.

The Denard question. So they did run a curl-flat. Denard went to the curl way late and threw his first interception. Not sure if that was schemed or just bad execution by the offense. If it's the latter that might be attributable to not running it over the offseason as Borges attempted to install his route packages, route packages that now seem like things Denard just can't do.

A three-point plan in an attempt to get Denard back on track:

  1. Stop throwing on the run.
  2. Provide some easy throws early—all hitch, snag—in an effort to get him calmed down.
  3. Develop some sort of counter-punch to the opponent getting all up in Denard's face on the rollout PA. A shovel pass?

Bending but not breaking. Michigan's giving up a lot of yards but not a lot of points. Frankly, some of this is luck. They are acquiring turnovers at an unsustainable rate. Not unsustainable for a mediocre defense, unsustainable for Michigan 1997. When the well dries up they'll do some more breaking.

The other thing is the secondary. Michigan's newfound ability to make plays on deep balls and Jordan Kovacs being stone-cold reliable (so far /crosses self) have erased cheap touchdowns for the opposition. WMU's touchdown came on a 15-play drive. ND touchdown drives went 7, 10, 7, and 4 plays. San Diego State's took six plays but started from the Michigan 38. The only quick drive Michigan's given up all year was ND's desperation drive, on which Michigan gave up chunks on purpose because of the time situation and then tried an NFL-style defense they weren't ready for and blew it. The longest touchdown other than that was the 16-yard pass Lindley hit in the third quarter.

Opponents have ripped off chunks on occasion, but they have not been handed free touchdowns. Michigan's at least making them earn it. That's a necessary first step on the road away from completely awful.

The next opponent. When Minnesota managed to hang with USC on the first weekend of the season they seemed like they might be more intimidating than your average Minnesota team. Then they lost to Not Even The Good New Mexico and North Dakota State and seemed even less intimidating than your average Minnesota team. Compounding matters: Jerry Kill is again out of commission with his seizure issue.

Drumline? Drumline:

Here

I did not VOAV this week for reasons of being spooked. Boyz In The Pahokee provided the usual bounty if you are jonesing.

ST3 goes Inside the Box Score:

Matt Wile. Wait, let me try that again. MATT WILE!!! Yeah, I think he was properly pumped up to play his Dad's team. Net yards per kickoff were 50 for SDSU and 49.2 for UofM. To be even on kickoffs is a win for us. Net yards per punt were 34.7 for SDSU and 43.5 for Michigan. To gain almost a full first down per punt is huge. Two punts were inside the 20, and two were 50+ yards. #82, Terrance Robinson had 2 ST tackles and did a great job as the gunner on punts.

Wile's just lost his punting job; if that allows him to improve his kickoffs and compete for the field goal job, Michigan's kicking could be one of those strength things by midseason. 

Lordfoul's weekly Hoke for Tomorrow:

Michigan needs Hagerup back.  Maybe Hagerup isn't the only answer.  Wile's kicks are improving it would seem, both on KOs and punts, possibly because his nerves are settling down.  Kickoffs regularly made it to the goal line and only 1 of 4 punts was returned for much while they averaged 49 yards per with a long of only 51(!).

Player participation notes from jtmc33.

Elsewhere

Media, as in files: Brady Hoke pointing at something. Hugs and Ryan Van Bergen's ripped jersey. AnnArbor.com's photo gallery.

MVictors got a few sideline shots, including SDSU's mascot:

1montazuma_thumb[1]

You see that conch shell he's got in his hand? At some point in the first half he was talking into it like it was a cell phone. That is all.

Media, as in blog rabble. BWS hops aboard the Countess bandwagon and points out Denard can't throw.

MGoBlog : The Big Lebowski :: The Hoover Street Rag : The Hunt For Red October:

After the Notre Dame game, I tweeted very simply: "And the singing, Captain?" "Let them sing."  The moment was too good to start worrying about the future.  But at some point, the future arrives and you need to deal with it.  How well prepared you are for that future plays a large role in how well you're able to handle it when the moment arrives.  The non-conference schedule, particularly one played as four games at the start of the season should, theoretically, be a nice combination of challenges and the working out of kinks.  Before the mission starts, you must know the capacity and capabilities of your crew.

Touch the Banner provides the usual breakdown, says we should see "no one" less on the defense. Whoah. MGoFootball highlights the tailbacks, says D is a live.

Media, as in local newspaper. John Niyo on the defense, which is extant. Chengelis on the fact the team is not vintage. San Diego State had big pictures of their former coaches as signals. The Daily on RVB's Hillman chase:

Fifth-year senior defensive tackle Ryan Van Bergen caught Hillman from behind inside the 10-yard line and knocked the ball loose for the second fumble.

Try reading it this way: a 288-pound defensive tackle caught the nation’s second-leading rusher from behind in the open field — 30 yards away from the line of scrimmage.

Van Bergen got a block from fifth-year senior defensive tackle Mike Martin, but most of his help came from practice.

“But when it comes down to it, we have the most explosive player in the country in our backfield,” Van Bergen said. “We get to play against (junior quarterback) Denard (Robinson), so we’ve learned how to take angles at guys who have speed.

“I took off on my horse just thinking, ‘I’ve almost caught Denard before, maybe I can catch this guy.’ ”

AnnArbor.com writes similarly. The San Diego perspective:

“They were very emotional after the game, depressed, disappointed, upset, however you want to say,” said Long, whose team dropped to 3-1 after Saturday’s 28-7 defeat. “It was a very emotional locker room after the game and not in a good sense.”

They probably would have done a “poor job” of answering questions, Long said, so he kept them behind closed doors. “It’s my job to protect them,” Long said Sunday. “This is not pro football.” …

"The defense got shocked by the speed of especially one guy (Robinson),” Long said. “They got shocked by the strength they had up front and the speed of quarterback early in the game.”

Nesbitt on Denard's twitter adventure. Meinke points out Michigan's massive uptick in red zone efficiency:

• Offensively, Michigan is 13-for-13 on red-zone opportunities. It is one of 13 teams in the country to have scored on every trip inside the 20-yard line this year.

• Even better? The Wolverines have scored touchdowns on 12 of those 13 trips. That 92-percent touchdown rate trails only Texas Tech nationally.

One of the main arguments made in favor of Shotgun Forever is that red zone efficiency is not a stat that shows much repeatable skill year to year and that the huge chunks of yards Michigan picked up without, you know, scoring in 2010 would turn into points if you just left the damn thing alone (and got a kicker). The early returns are excellent.

National takes. Smart Football:

- Michigan 28, San Diego State 7. Brady Hoke’s new team faced his old team, and I’m still not sure, despite their 4-0 record, that we know anything about this Michigan football team. The defense seems to be improving under DC Greg Mattison, but they’ve been using so much movement and motion to cover up their talent weaknesses it’s unclear how the defense will fare against a polished opponent. And while the offense has found a better rhythm running a Rich Rodriguez-lite Denard Robinson attack — including Denard’s long TD run on the speed option — his passing line was abysmal: 8 of 17 for 93 yards, no TDs and two interceptions. He’s obviously uncomfortable in the new offense. He looked like a more polished and comfortable passer last year. I chalk some of this up to the fact that the very techniques he’s using are new, but he’s going to have to improve for UM to have success. That said, given Michigan’s favorable schedule — no Wisconsin and the easy part of the Big 10 schedule up next — we may not learn anything about Michigan until the last three weeks of the season, when they play Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State.

No one else bothered. A couple weeks after puntosauring himself into a loss against Iowa State, BHGP documents Kirk Ferentz opening Iowa's game against ULM in a shotgun spread, demonstrating the Carr thing above perfectly.

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
(Reply to #32) #52
Magnus
Magnus's picture
Joined: 07/17/2008
MGoPoints: 123036
Yep...somebody's going to

Yep...somebody's going to hurt us while we're flopping at one point.  Hopefully it doesn't cost us a big play.  Luckily, we've been quick to recognize the changes in strength and the guys hustle to get to their spots.  Teams that are dumb/lazy get hurt with it a lot more often.

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September 26th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
(Reply to #73) #53
tubauberalles
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1101
I predict MSU

Dantonio seems to love to gameplan for stuff like that - like jumping all our snap counts a couple years ago.  I can see OSU doing it now that Fickell's there - he'll probably feel like he needs to plan on ways to out scheme us. 

Tressel, of course, would have just anticipated that we would anticipate that he would try to take advantage of our tendency here and would thus get us to jump at shadows.  Or something else more closely connected with the ritual death of puppies.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:39 PM
(Reply to #22) #54
wile_e8
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 6033
Speaking of flipping

Speaking of flipping formations: Are we tipping a Denard run every time we flip the RB? I started specifically watching for it yesterday, and it seemed every time the RB switched sides, it was to be a lead blocker for a QB power/iso/sweep/whatever. I didn't notice any other plays after the flips, although I may have missed some when my daughter decided she didn't like the game having my full attention.

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September 26th, 2011 at 3:25 PM
(Reply to #56) #55
Blue in Yarmouth
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Joined: 02/18/2009
MGoPoints: 5720
I think a bigger tip is...

when it is a RB run out of the gun the RB is a couple of steps behind Denard but when we pass or the RB is the lead blocker for the QB he lines up even with the QB. Having said that, I am not sure how easy it is to see that from the field level across the line of scrimmage. 

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
(Reply to #22) #56
joeyb
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Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
Yes. I was surprised that

Yes. I was surprised that they didn't snap the ball before the defense could get set. It seemed that, at half time, they made an adjustment and we flipped less (if at all) in the second half.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:03 PM
#57
Greg McMurtry
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A comment and a question:

The Michigan defense played well vs SDSU, however, on 2 or 3 third downs (or perhaps fourth downs) there was an SDSU WR/TE open and Lindley  didn't see him or threw a poor pass which resulted in a turnover or a punt.

Also, was the shifting D-line meant to confuse SDSU or where the linemen just getting into correct formation?  I couldn't tell which it was.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:07 PM
(Reply to #24) #58
Brian
Brian's picture
Joined: 05/26/2008
MGoPoints: 118089
it wasn't an attempt to

it wasn't an attempt to confuse. SDSU would flip the strength of the formation, so Michigan would respond. It gave me the heebie-jeebies because it seemed like moving a TE could cause Michigan's DL to fall into disarray at a time when it's perfectly legal to snap the ball. I didn't mind it so much when SDSU would send multiple guys all over the place, because then they have to re-set.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:10 PM
(Reply to #29) #59
Greg McMurtry
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Joined: 02/25/2009
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Thanks.

Yes, it didn't seem to affect Michigan's play at all and I thought that SDSU would snap the ball more quickly to catch Michigan off guard--but they didn't.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:06 PM
#60
psychomatt
Joined: 08/25/2009
MGoPoints: 3440
Maybe move Woolfolk back to Safety?

Saying Woolfolk has had crappy luck the past 14 months is a major understatement. Still, given how well Countess performed and given that one (and maybe both) of his ankles are not 100%, I agree he should take the next week or two off so that he can be as healthy as possible for the meat of the B10 schedule. FWIW, in additional to his ankle issues, he also seems to be having difficulty tackling consistently with one of his paws in a cast. I also wonder if, when he returns, it would be better to move him to safety. With his experience and knowledge of the game, and ankle issues possibly affecting his speed, I think that might be the better place for him.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:11 PM
(Reply to #28) #61
los barcos
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Joined: 03/27/2009
MGoPoints: 792
we

have had good safety play though, so why mess with whats working? i think we should get him healed up and go from there.  remember, we are all trumpeting blake's game but troy is the #1 corner for a reason.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:35 PM
(Reply to #28) #62
Red is Blue
Red is Blue's picture
Joined: 05/13/2010
MGoPoints: 9903
TWolf with a paw -- I see

TWolf with a paw -- I see what you did there.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:11 PM
#63
Yostbound and Down
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Joined: 07/27/2011
MGoPoints: -86515
Denard doesn't look sad! He's

Denard doesn't look sad! He's just chillin...

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:12 PM
#64
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8444
What about the other 4rth down call

But first: The people who didnt want to go for it there at the end of the half.....i sentence you to a lifetime of listening Pam Ward and Rodney Gilmore call games. Or something akin to that

BUT MR COOK, POKER PLAYER

Why no commentary on the later decision to try a FG instead of going for a fourth and 3 in the red zone? I say end the game right there and go for it.

Personally, I'd like to see Brady win more games this year than Rich did a year ago and do it by somehow kicking less field goals. That would be RAD

Probably not the percentage play, but since we still cant kick a FG, I dont know why we didnt just go  for it.......

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:24 PM
(Reply to #36) #65
Brian
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Joined: 05/26/2008
MGoPoints: 118089
Assuming a competent field

Assuming a competent field goal kicker I didn't mind that. It's much later in the game (three minutes left in the third) and you're up 21. FG makes SDSU score three times and make three two point conversions to tie. It's 7/8ths of a four-score lead. A touchdown is 100% of a four-score lead, so the risk of not getting it on fourth and four (or having to kick anyway) seems to outweigh the marginal increase in points given the game situation. If the opponent is really going to score four touchdowns in little over a quarter you didn't lose because you went for a FG.

Assuming a competent field goal kicker is kind of a problem, granted.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:28 PM
(Reply to #43) #66
somewittyname
Joined: 05/15/2009
MGoPoints: -2510
It was worth

giving Gibbons another shot, but between last year and that kick, which wasn't even remotely close, I've now seen enough to say either we try out Wile or stop kicking anything longer than 30 yards.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:56 PM
(Reply to #45) #67
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 15753
Yeah

Considering the only other FG attempted this year was essentially a PAT, I think the coaches wanted to give Gibbons a shot and possibly build some confidence heading into Big Ten play.

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:00 PM
(Reply to #45) #68
mgobleu
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Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 23830
I got the impression that

I got the impression that that's what Hoke was going for. I mean, I've never tried to kick a FG in my life, but what I gather is that kicking in practice and kicking at game speed are 2 different animals. Up 21, with D playing solid against a clearly struggling offense, still with plenty of time for your O to get another score or 2, its a good chance to get your kicker some game experience. We can't expect Hoke to go for it on 90% of 4th downs, then bitch about bad kicking when he doesn't get any attempts.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:38 PM
(Reply to #43) #69
Red is Blue
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Joined: 05/13/2010
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Seems to me that part of the

Seems to me that part of the value of attempting the FG there related to assessing the compentency of the kicker.

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
(Reply to #54) #70
imafreak1
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Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 1743
I don't see any point in Hoke

I don't see any point in Hoke starting the season with the assumption that his FG kicker can't make a FG. It was a good spot to see what Gibbons can do and hopefully build some confidence.

If Michigan doesn't kick there then they will be pretty much only attempting FGs when they have no other option. I don't think that is a good idea at this point.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:51 PM
(Reply to #43) #71
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8444
What

What is a 'competent field goal kicker?'

Is that Latin? I dont know what than means.

Yeah, my itch to go for it there was purely Michigan personnel centric. Otherwise, for sure on the FG.........but Michigan cant make that kick.

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
(Reply to #43) #72
profitgoblue
profitgoblue's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Missed FG

How angry were you all about the missed FG (and the decision to kick it in the first place)?  Me, I turned to my wife and said:  "Watch this" and then chuckled as it sailed.  I presume that I wouldn't be laughing if the game had depended on that kick . . .

 

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September 26th, 2011 at 2:46 PM
(Reply to #84) #73
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
I turned to my wife grinning

I turned to my wife grinning and told her that if he made this, it would be the longest of his career. I also crossed my fingers, thumbs, and arms to try to help him out. Next time, I'll do the legs and toes too.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:27 PM
(Reply to #36) #74
Chunks the Hobo
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Joined: 07/22/2008
MGoPoints: 4065
Only if Gilmore will still

Only if Gilmore will still call Pam "Tess" all the time.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:32 PM
(Reply to #36) #75
Greg McMurtry
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Joined: 02/25/2009
MGoPoints: 17252
"May" have been

Gibbons' last shot at securing the FG kicker spot.  40 yard attempt with a double digit lead.  Not the most nerve-racking kick.  Hagerup is back this week which means Wile can concentrate on kicking insted of punting.

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September 26th, 2011 at 2:13 PM
(Reply to #48) #76
Section 1
Section 1's picture
Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: 16556
Also; it was on the right hash mark.

As a left-footed kicker with the ball on the right hash mark, it should have set up perfectly for Gibbons.

Here's my ridiculously-unqualified golfer's view of the kick:  Gibbons over-kicked it just a bit.  He had plenty of leg; and the mistake I see him making (in all my years of big-time placekicking) is that he hits it harder than necessary.

The one he missed last Saturday was wide left.  It didn't hook for him.  And that too is odd, because usually when a kicker hits it hard, there is a bit more hook.  I couldn't see down the line of the kick so I couldn't tell how much hook he had on it.  But I could see how hard he hit it, and it was hit much harder than necessary.  (Non-golfers might wonder what is wrong with hitting the ball hard, and there's nothing wrong with it if you've got good control of direction and spin.)

If I understand what Hoke has been telling us about Matt Wile, Gibbons was on the edge of his assigned range at about 40 yards or so.  A couple of yards deeper, would have sent in Matt Wile.  And maybe Gibbons subconcsiously felt like he head to give it a good hard boot. 

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September 26th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
(Reply to #36) #77
Hachgoblue
Joined: 02/25/2009
MGoPoints: 103
Good time to try FG

We haven't really had many opportunities to kick FGs this year.

Maybe it was just an opportunity to see if Hoke should trust Gibbons in a more crucial situation. Answer is obviously no.

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September 26th, 2011 at 7:14 PM
(Reply to #36) #78
Blue Durham
Blue Durham's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 5296
I actually didn't have a problem in kicking

a field goal there, as I thought it was little more than a confidence booster (yeah, I know it was a glorified extra point). 

With the game on the line and 3 seconds left (or in the half, for that matter), at, say Iowa, the last thing you want to do is bring in a field goal kicker who hasn't made anything all year and was a disaster last year.  I wouldn't have a problem in kicking (an hopefully making) a few more against Minnesota a little further back.

If we didn't make the TD against Notre Dame and given last year, kicking that field goal would have been an adventure.  In all likelihood, we're going to need a FG sometime this year; it would be nice to have a kicker that has actually knocked in a few before then. 

The whole team (particularly defense) seems to be playing with a little more confidence... lets spread the wealth to the kickers.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:24 PM
#79
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8444
So

So it seems almost everyone is now on the Vincent Smith bandwagon

My work is nearly complete. I need to find a new guy to incessantly defend............

But, I'll check out TTB first before I declare complete victory

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:35 PM
(Reply to #42) #80
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 70333
I'll check out TTB first before I declare complete victory

Magnus has busted out the big praise over on TTB:

"The first two backs (Fitzgerald Toussaint and Vincent Smith) are doing just fine,..."

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:32 PM
(Reply to #42) #81
Magnus
Magnus's picture
Joined: 07/17/2008
MGoPoints: 123036
Yeesh...  I like that I take

Yeesh...  I like that I take flak for getting exactly what I wanted.

"Hey, Magnus!  You moron!  You just won a million dollars!  Sucks to be you!"

I always wanted Smith to be used as a pass receiver (he's the only RB to catch a pass this year), not to be used on short yardage (Toussaint is our short yardage/goal line back), and to be used as a change-of-pace back like Darren Sproles (so far he's getting roughly two-thirds as many carries as Toussaint).

Meanwhile, Toussaint - who I liked a whole lot more coming out of high school - is averaging 5.5 yards a carry and leads the running backs in touchdowns.

I scream, you scream, we all scream for ice cream.

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September 26th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
(Reply to #78) #82
mgoO
Joined: 10/11/2010
MGoPoints: 708
You still think Mike Cox is

You still think Mike Cox is an option?  How many more coaching staffs have to bury him before you'll believe he's useless?

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September 26th, 2011 at 3:09 PM
(Reply to #87) #83
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
Why is it so hard to realize

Why is it so hard to realize that he wants the best back to start and he just thought that Mike Cox was the most physically-gifted back and at least deserved some playing time when no one else was doing anything?

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September 26th, 2011 at 2:16 PM
(Reply to #46) #84
InterM
InterM's picture
Joined: 01/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1922
Not only agree . . .

but all evidence suggests that Borges is using precisely these sorts of strategies to try to get Denard into his comfort zone.  Against SDSU, there were fewer downfield throws -- I remember only one, later in the game -- and more short stuff that Denard has shown success with in the past.  Granted, Denard was still a bit shaky despite this playcalling, but once again, we've seen evidence that this coaching staff is adapting and trying different things to bring out the best in Denard.  All in all, I liked the game plan -- which I'm sure is a big comfort to Borges, who was anxiously awaiting my approval . . . .

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:32 PM
#85
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 70333
I know it's just SDSU so it may not mean much

But I loved this statement by Rocky Long anyhow:

“They got shocked by the strength they had up front..."

I can't remember the last time an opposing coach or player said Michigan "shocked" them in any way. To the contrary, there've been too many times when the opposing team said that "they didn't show anything we hadn't seen in film." or "they were just like we were expecting."

It's a tiny speck of a data point, but I think it's encouraging.

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
(Reply to #49) #86
Corey
Corey's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 1789
I'll counter with UConn, but

I'll counter with UConn, but yeah... outliers and stuff.  Nobody expects the Sp--..... Denard Robinson.

In all seriousness, it's strange and heartwarming to have some level of confidence in both sides of the ball again.

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September 26th, 2011 at 12:36 PM
#87
Elmer
Elmer's picture
Joined: 04/22/2011
MGoPoints: 5141
Brady and Brady

Along with the 4th down call, I really liked how Brady coaches during the game.  Many coaches have their headset on all game and rarely talk to the players.  Hoke was constantly going up to players when they were coming off the field and coaching 'em up.  He was gabbing people by the arm and getting their full attention.

Lloyd Brady must be close to graduating, he's rockin' a more corporate looking haircut.  Maybe the bowl he used to use can be enshrined at Schembechler Hall.

 

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
(Reply to #53) #88
GoWings2008
GoWings2008's picture
Joined: 01/26/2011
MGoPoints: 48651
I noticed

at one point Brady was giving an "on the spot correction" to some players that may have been too close to the field.  He pointed at them and I could see him mouth the words (or something to the extent of...) "Get back there to where you're supposed to be."  It highlighted the discipline and the attention to detail that he expects from everyone at every moment that there is time showing on the clock.

God Bless his Maize and Blue heart...

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:10 PM
(Reply to #58) #89
Tha Quiet Storm
Tha Quiet Storm's picture
Joined: 12/22/2008
MGoPoints: 2260
LOL

Perhaps Ryan Lindley didn't have a very good game against us because he was stuck by lightning a few days earlier.

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September 26th, 2011 at 10:32 PM
(Reply to #58) #90
cheesheadwolverine
Joined: 10/25/2008
MGoPoints: 4386
North Korea would be so funny

North Korea would be so funny if it wasn't so tragic that actual people lived there.

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
#91
2plankr
Joined: 03/13/2009
MGoPoints: -433
minor nit but....

according to the picture Ohio DID have (at least) one time out left

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
#92
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
Did you ever get the call

Did you ever get the call from the Thought Equity Motion guy?

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
#93
the_dude
the_dude's picture
Joined: 09/01/2010
MGoPoints: 308
Terrance Robinson!

T-Rob's been a very valuable player on special teams, it's been great to see him become a major contributor on kick-off coverage. I'm happy for him.

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:27 PM
#94
TorontoBlue
TorontoBlue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 775
So Brian, is this an

So Brian, is this an admission you actually watched the other team's mascot?  Don't let Dave Brandon find out, LOLz

"You see that conch shell he's got in his hand? At some point in the first half he was talking into it like it was a cell phone. That is all."

GO BLUE!

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September 26th, 2011 at 1:36 PM
#95
ken725
ken725's picture
Joined: 10/26/2008
MGoPoints: 27659
Rocky Long seems like a

Rocky Long seems like a really good guy and a coach.  The way he protected his players after the game is nice to see, especially after they played their old coach.  You can tell that he really enjoyed working with Hoke.

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September 26th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
(Reply to #85) #96
Magnus
Magnus's picture
Joined: 07/17/2008
MGoPoints: 123036
The last time I checked, Rich

The last time I checked, Rich Rodriguez was pretty decent at defeating non-conference baby seals, too.

Maybe you should wait until the end of the season before gloating.

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September 26th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
(Reply to #88) #97
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 15753
Amazingly enough

UM is on the longest September winning streak in almost 15 years.  The last time they went 3 years in a row without losing before October was '95, '96 and '97.

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September 26th, 2011 at 5:40 PM
(Reply to #88) #98
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
SDSU is better than a "baby

SDSU is better than a "baby seal", though.

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September 26th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
(Reply to #85) #99
profitgoblue
profitgoblue's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Congratulations

That one cost you 100 MGoPoints.  I hope it was worth it.

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September 26th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
(Reply to #105) #100
profitgoblue
profitgoblue's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
MGoExplanation

If you really need an explanation, here's the reason:  The majority of your previous posts have constantly harped on Rodriguez.  (e.g.  "RR= bad coach", "I will say it one more time for you  "RICH ROD WAS A FAILURE AT MICHIGAN", "He's a  bum and a snake.  The moron wasn't smart enough to adjust his offense to his players and only won 8 games in his first two seasons.").  This time, instead of just voicing your opinion, you throw Hoke's success directly in Brian's face as if Brian is hoping that Hoke fails.  No ad homenem attacks,  No more Rodriguez vs. Hoke hate speech.  That's why I docked you the points.

That said, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and will set it so that your points return in 30 days.  Please, going forward, be cool.

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September 26th, 2011 at 4:50 PM
(Reply to #109) #101
profitgoblue
profitgoblue's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Valid question? C'mon.

Do you really think that was a "valid" question?  Have we sunk so low that what matters is getting Rodriguez supporter to admit that they are glad he's gone or that Hoke is a better coach?  If so, its a sad state of affairs here on the Board and even more reason to prevent those kinds of inflammatory posts.

 

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