One loss Nebraska to a someone really bad Texas team (and near loss to North Dakota State) over one loss Michigan State that lost to a pretty good Iowa team seems a bit off to me?
Blogpoll Week 10 Draft Ballot
With only one day to accept comments, I'll cut right to the chase:
A few notes:
- A case can definitely be made for TCU jumping Boise at this point. I erred on the side of status quo, but if they can beat Utah, they'll definitely jump the Broncos.
- I think I'm satisfied with the order of the Big Ten teams. Although Michigan State got stomped by Iowa, they have a (convincing) head-to-head against Wisconsin, who has the same over Ohio State. The Hawkeyes' out-of-conference loss dooms them to fourth place.
- At the end of the poll, I wasn't scrambling for teams to fill in, but rather had to leave a potentially-deserving team (Nevada) out. I think there's a case to be made for 3-loss USC to be bumped in their favor, no?
- Baylor definitely deserves to be ranked, but the lack of a big win (which, lol that Texas doesn't qualify) leaves them near the end of the list.
All other comments are welcome, and the resume chart lives here.
There's a legit argument to be made there, but the magnitude of Michigan State's loss was far worse than Texas's. MIchigan State might have the better dossier of wins though, so I'll have to re-evaluate those teams for the final ballot.
But your rankings for Iowa and MSU make zero sense. You need to put more weight on head-to-head results. A 31-point drubbing and still FIVE spots lower?
There's no perfect transitive property. MSU beat Wisconsin, who beat Iowa, etc. Plus, the Hawkeyes have two losses, which makes their resume weaker.
It was a head-to-had blow-out by 31 points.
You want to put MSU higher than Wisconsin, fine. Heck, if not for a fake punt and botched clock management Iowa beats Wisconsin, so put them higher than both of 'em.
They lost the games they played, dude. Michigan State has a better resume, despite the head-to-head result.
Tim, it just seems that there's a complete lack of context in these polls. Week after week it seems you make no distinction between a close loss and blow out or a loss on the road and a win at home.
If we're just going to look at resumes and completely take out important context like margin of victory, circumstances of the loss, fluky plays, momentum in the last few games, and the good ole eye test, why even have human rankings? Just put your spreadsheet into a formula each week and create your own version of the Sagarin politically correct Elo-chess.
Iowa loses by 7 to ASU in the desert in the summer, then loses by one point to a very good Wisconsin team that it out gains. so after depantsing MSU I think most would say, "yes, IOWA is a better team".
Something is seriously wrong when horribly flawed coaches poll is a better reflection of the best teams in the country than the MGoBlog Poll.
ding ding ding
to Arizona, not ASU ... which is fortunate because it would be ASU's best win by far. Also, it was the third week of September and a 10:30 Eastern kickoff ... probably warm at game time, but not like playing in late August at 1:00 local time.
Arizona's other wins are over Cal (who might or might not be good, still hard to say) and a bunch of meh teams. With Stanford, USC, and Oregon left to play, Arizona's grade is incomplete at this time.
I think at the very least you should put Wisconsin ahead of MSU. MSU won the head-to-head at home. Iowa blew MSU out of the water and Wisconsin won @Iowa. In fact, Wisconsin went on the road for both games, Iowa played at home, and MSU split.
Their resumes are basically equivalent, with Wisconsin having a less embarrassing loss, but MSU holding the head-to-head. In situations where two teams are essentially tied, I'll use head-to-head as a tiebreaker, when available.
I wouldn't say they are even. Wisconsin manhandled the team they beat at home. MSU never had more than a 10 point lead. Both beat teams with no other losses.
Wisconsin's second best win is on the road against a team whose only other loss is to your #15 team in the country on the road. MSU's is on the road to a team that looks like they are going to end up 6-6. It might be convincing, but it should be convincing.
MSU wins SOS after that, but it is pretty negligible. If you compare the one team that they have played in common, they both played on the road. Wisconsin squeaked out a win, MSU got demolished.
If you don't swap them this week, I'd compare MSU's win against Minnesota to Wisconsin's after the weekend as another datapoint to see which one is better.
Wedge in that Wolfpack.
When they're on . . . They're really fucking on.
Wiscy at home and that's really it. Move that game to Madison and it's a Sparty spanking like last year.
Look at the resume chart. The individual quality of MSU's wins has gotten out of order lately, but they've beaten a good Wisconsin team, a good Illinois team (should I consider ranking the Illini? I'll have to give it a look), a 5-2 Northwestern team, an OK Michigan that they took care of much better than Iowa did, etc.
Northwestern. Please don't let teams hide behind their record. They beat Vandy, Illinios State, Central by 5 at home, Rice, and Minnesota by 1. They have an embarrassing loss to Purdue, and their best thing on their resume is a 7 point loss to MSU. Northwestern is a bad team, a bad team. Let's just call it like it is.
Also, Iowa and MSU handled us equally well. If we hadn't given up in the last 5 minutes of the game we would have put up another 7 on MSU.
I feel like Nebraska's one loss, at home to Texas, is weaker than Mizzou's and OU's - on the road to a once beaten team.
I can see putting OU ahead of Nebraska because of the quality of the loss and strength of schedule, and I can see putting Nebraska ahead of Mizzou because of the head to head - but I feel like there should be some consistency. Either OU should be behind Mizzou for losing handily, or Nebraska should fall behind Mizzou for the weakest resume. I'm leaning towards the latter.
On top of that, Wisconsin looks better than all three Big 12 teams with a close loss at Michigan State as their only blemish and wins at Iowa and at home demolishing Ohio State. I guess I'm just not a believer in any of the big 12 schools being that good. Other than that, poll looks great as usual.
Don't forget when your'e talking about a body of work that more than just the losses count on the resume.
However, you do raise a good point about Nebraska potentially having the weakest lot of the three. I'll take a closer look for the revision.
Syracuse. Still missing. They even scored points against an FBS team this week. Their resume is just as good as Miami, comparable to, although perhaps a little behind, Air Force.
I'm still not forgiving to Virginia Tech. JMU is the equivalent of 2-3 losses by itself. Head-to-head be damned with NC State.
Minor notes: USC's win over Hawaii is more valuable than their Wazzou or Minnesota wins. UNLV is probably overvalued in several postions (yes, extreme nit-pick).
Head-to-head aside, Wisconsin has the best resume in the Big Ten. Two wins over the top 4. No one else has that. Iowa, even with the extra loss, has a better resume than Michigan State and a BIG head-to-head win. While I don't value head-to-head as much in a pure resume, having both of those would trump an extra loss to a top 15 team.
I think you also put Wisconsin over Nebraska. Better loss, top two wins are at least comparable. Wisconsin's 3rd win is a better PAC10 team than Nebraska's 3rd win. Nebraska's chart's only advantage is K-State over Minnesota. To be fair, K-State is probably better than UDub, which may put both matchups in Nebraska's favor.
Ohio State needs a bump down behind all of the other Big Ten one-loss teams. Miami as a signature win isn't worthy of being above any other than maybe Okie-State. I'd also have them behind Iowa.
ERROR: Read Wisconsin's wins when thought I was looking at Iowa. Remove the part about Iowa over MSU.
Utah scrapes by AFA and is #5
MSU far above Iowa, which asploded their head.
FSU ranked for some reason.
LSU in the top ten for beating... Florida? WVA? UNC? For giving up something like 400 yards rushing to Cam and Friends? Where is the quality win (or even loss) here?
I miss Brian's ballots.
Air Force is a pretty good team, man. Their only losses have come against top teams except one head-scratcher against San Diego State (not a bad team in their own right). I may be overvaluing Utah because there aren't a whole lot of great option behind them and they don't have any signature wins. Beating Air Force is not going to be a knock on their resume, though.
See above for my MSU/Iowa rationale. There's definitely an argument to be made for those teams being a little closer together, but I think there's justification for the Spartans being ahead.
FSU has only two losses, one of them to a quality (as in top 10) Oklahoma team and one to an NC State team that's ranked (and ranked ahead of FSU). They don't have any particularly impressive victories, but that's why they're at the tail end of the top 25.
If you don't think wins over Mississippi State and Florida are quality, I don't know what to tell you. West Virginia and UNC are obviously struggling, but LSU has only lost to the #1 team in the land, so I'm willing to give them a bit of benefit of the doubt. I'm as big an LSU-hater as there is from a "perpetually overrated" standpoint, but so far, they've earned it on the field.
MSU far above Iowa, which asploded their head.
This and the other guy complaining about this are failing to take in the whole picture. By using just this logic, you need to rank Wisconsin above Iowa, and Michigan St. above Wisconsin, and Iowa above Michigan St., and we're going in circles forever. When you have an infinite loop of head-to-head victories, you have to start looking at overall resumes instead, and Iowa has another loss and other reasons their resume is less impressive than Michigan St.'s resume.
It reminds me of a couple years ago when we had the Oklahoma/Texas/Texas Tech logjam atop the Big XII North. Oklahoma won out due to the best out-of-conference resume, but Texas fans wanted to ignore Texas Tech and focus solely on their head-to-head victory against Oklahoma.
at this point, i think you can make a case for swapping auburn and oregon.
You're punishing Iowa for a close loss to Arizona (with Nick Foles healthy) in Tucson. Do you think MSU would have won that game? They barely escaped at home against hapless Notre Dame in their one serious nonconference game.
I don't care what MSU "might have done" in that game. I care what has happened on the field. This is a resume poll, not a power poll.