Navy should be #1
chance of bowl: 13.6%
|Last week's ballot|
Not a lot of change near the very top. Ohio State is a big mover on the basis of their victory over Iowa. I may have punished the Hawkeyes a bit too much, but I think the loss to Northwestern (at home) should have been punished a little more harshly. Of course, now there's the matter of Ohio State's home loss to USC looking much, much worse.
The biggest riser in the poll is Stanford. Despite their bad loss to Wake, they have two of the most impressive wins in the country, beating the crap out of a top-10 team and a top-20 team in consecutive weeks.
LSU confirmed my skepticism of them, squeaking by Louisiana Tech in a game that wasn't really decided until well into the fourth quarter.
I kinda think Texas Tech should drop out, but that raises the familiar problem of finding a team to plug in. Might Navy be that team? Their only losses are to Ohio State, Pitt, and... uh... Temple. But wait! Temple is actually kinda good this year! It is a mystery. I'm open for suggestions on what to do towards the end, always.
Comments on anything and everything in the ballot are welcome.
|1||Texas||41-14 Oklahoma St||41-7 Missouri||34-24 Texas Tech||16-13 Oklahoma||35-3 UCF||38-14 Colorado||47-14 Baylor||59-20 Monroe||41-10 Wyoming||64-7 UTEP|
|2||Alabama||24-15 LSU||34-24 VT||20-6 So Carolina||22-3 Ole Miss||35-7 Arkansas||37-3 Miss St.||38-20 Kentucky||12-10 Tennessee||40-14 Florida Int||53-7 N Texas|
|3||Florida||13-3 LSU||41-17 Georgia||41-7 Kentucky||23-13 Tennessee||27-3 Vandy||23-20 Arkansas||24-14 So Carolina||29-19 Miss St.||56-6 Troy||62-3 Charleston|
|4||Cincinnati||34-17 South Florida||47-15 Rutgers||28-18 Oregon State||24-21 WVU||41-10 Louisville||28-7 Syracuse||47-45 UConn||28-20 Fresno State||37-13 Miami OH||70-3 SEMO|
|5||TCU||38-7 BYU||55-28 Utah||14-10 Clemson||30-14 UVA||44-6 Colo St||41-0 UNLV||55-12 San Diego St||20-17 Airforce||39-14 SMU||56-21 Texas State|
|6||Boise State||19-8 Oregon||28-21 Tulsa||63-25 Idaho||51-34 Fresno||45-7 San Jose St||54-9 Hawaii||45-35 La Tech||49-14 BGSU||48-0 Miami OH||34-16 UC Davis|
|7||Georgia Tech||28-23 Va Tech||24-7 No Carolina||42-31 Miss St||30-27 Clemson||49-10 Duke||30-27OT Wake||34-9 UVa||56-31 Vandy||49-44 Florida St||37-17 Jax State||17-33 Miami FL|
|8||Pittsburgh||41-14 South Fla||27-22 Notre Dame||24-17 Rutgers||24-21 UConn||37-10 Syracuse||35-10 Louisville||54-27 Buffalo||24-17 Navy||38-3 Youngstown||31-38 NC State|
|9||Oregon||47-20 USC||43-19 Washington||31-24 Utah||42-3 Cal||24-10 UCLA||44-21 Arizona St||52-6 Wash St||38-36 Purdue||8-19 Boise||42-51 Stanford|
|10||Ohio State||24-7 Penn State||27-24OT Iowa||31-13 Wisconsin||38-7 Minnesota||30-0 Illinois||33-14 Indiana||38-0 Toledo||45-0 N Mexico St||31-27 Navy||15-18 USC||18-26 Purdue|
|11||LSU||31-10 Auburn||20-13 Georgia||31-23 Washington||30-26 Miss State||23-9 Vandy||42-0 Tulane||31-3 UL Lafayette||24-16 La Tech||3-13 Florida||15-24 Alabama|
|12||Oklahoma State||33-17 Missouri||24-17 Texas Tech||34-8 Iowa St||24-10 Georgia||36-31 Texas A&M||34-7 Baylor||41-24 Rice||56-6 Grambling||35-45 Houston||14-41 Texas|
|13||Penn State||35-10 Michigan||20-0 Minnesota||31-20 Indiana||35-17 Illinois||34-13 Northwestern||28-7 Syracuse||31-6 Temple||31-7 Akron||52-3 Eastern Ill||10-21 Iowa||7-24 Penn State|
|14||Stanford||55-21 USC||51-42 Oregon||33-14 Arizona St||24-14 Washington||24-16 UCLA||42-17 SJ State||39-13 Wash ST||17-24 Wake||28-38 Oregon St||38-43 Arizona|
|15||Virginia Tech||31-7 Miami||48-14 BC||16-15 Nebraska||16-3 East Carolina||36-9 Maryland||34-26 Duke||52-10 Marshall||24-34 Alabama||23-28 Ga Tech||17-20 UNC|
|16||Iowa||21-10 PSU||20-10 Wisconsin||27-17 Arizona||30-28 Michigan||15-13 Michigan St||35-3 Iowa State||42-24 Indiana||24-21 Arkansas St||17-16 N Iowa||24-27OT Ohio St||10-17 Northwestern|
|17||USC||30-3 California||18-15 Ohio State||34-27 Notre Dame||42-36 Oregon St||14-9 Arizona St||56-3 SJSU||27-6 Wazzou||13-16 Washington||20-47 Oregon||21-55 Stanford|
|18||Oregon State||38-28 Stanford||31-14 Cal||26-19 UCLA||48-21 Washington||28-17 Arizona St||23-21 UNLV||34-7 Portland St||36-42 USC||18-28 Cincinnati||32-37 Arizona|
|19||Wisconsin||38-30 Mich State||37-0 Purdue||31-28 Minnesota||45-24 Michigan||31-28 Indiana||34-31 OT Fresno||28-20 NIU||44-14 Wofford||10-20 Iowa||13-31 Ohio State|
|20||Miami (FL)||34-17 Ga Tech||21-20 Oklahoma||52-17 UVa||38-34 Florida State||28-27 Wake Forest||27-7 UCF||48-16 FAMU||7-31 Virginia Tech||37-40 Clemson||24-33 No Carolina|
|21||Utah||23-16 Air Force||24-17 Colorado St||30-14 Louisville||24-14 SJSU||45-14 New Mexico||22-10 Wyoming||35-15 UNLV||35-17 Utah St||24-31 Oregon||28-55 TCU|
|22||Nebraska||27-12 Missouri||10-3 Oklahoma||31-17 Kansas||55-0 UL Lafayette||20-10 Baylor||49-3 Florida Atl||38-9 Ark St||15-16 VT||10-31 Texas Tech||7-9 Iowa St|
|23||Arizona||43-38 Stanford||37-32 Oregon St||48-7 Wash St||27-13 UCLA||19-6 Central Mich||34-17 Northern Ariz||17-27 Iowa||33-36 Washington||16-24 Cal|
|24||BYU||52-0 Wyoming||14-13 Oklahoma||42-23 Colorado St||50-21 UNLV||38-28 SDSU||35-17 Utah State||54-3 Tulane||24-19 New Mexico||7-38 TCU||28-54 Florida St|
|25||Texas Tech||31-10 Nebraska||66-14 Kansas St||42-21 Kansas||48-28 New Mexico||55-10 Rice||38-13 No Dakota||24-34 Texas||28-29 Houston||30-52 Texas A&M||17-24 Oklahoma St|
Navy should be #1
Looks good. I think TCU is playing better than Florida right now, so I'd have them third.
Why are they so high? What is their best victory? They've gotten handled by the only 2 good teams they'v eplayed so far this year. At least move them lower than Iowa. The Hawkeyes shouldn't be overly punished for losing on the road, in OT, with a back-up QB.
Iowa has beaten 3 top 25 teams.
Penn State's best win is Temple.
Agreed. I never understood why some voters would punish Team A losing a close game to a higher-ranked Team B at Team B. Voters should consider what would happen if they played at a neutral-site.
TCU should not be behind Cinci. You see them this weekend? ON FIRE!
Idea for future charts of overwhelming size, bold the wins that are against either teams in your top 25, teams in consideration for your top 25, teams in any of the top 25s, or something along those lines.
Could we also have the losses in red? I see a team with a couple more games in their matrix and naturally assume they're wins.
Also, you have Penn State losing to Penn State instead of Ohio State.
I think UNC is the most logical #25, certainly better than Texas Tech. They have 2 signature victories (Miami & Va Tech) and there's no shame in losing to Ga Tech and FSU (still a talented team), though the UVa loss is ugly. Navy is a decent option too but there really aren't any signature victories on their schedule.
I also think at this point that TCU is the best of the "other 3" undefeated teams. They have a great Off & Def, while Cincy is suspect on D and Boise has played no one outside of Oregon (TCU has beaten Clemson & BYU on the road and Utah at home, all 3 are resume posters).
Penn State is at the point where they don't belong in the top 15. They haven't proven themselves at all... in some ways, I don't even know if they belong in the top 20. Same with Wisconsin, but I can at least agree with 19th for them.
You seem to be ignoring the Oregon-Stanford H2H too much. #14 dropped 55 points on #9 in a great win a couple weekends ago. Give Oregon a little bump down (10 or 11) or Stanford a bump up (12 or 13). Losing to bad teams doesn't really matter as much if you take good teams to town. In no way is Stanford worse than PSU.
Alabama's still got a better resume than Texas.
I'm not sure you can justify Stanford being that much worse than PSU. PSU has beaten every team they should have. Stanford lost to a terrible Wake Forest team. Oregon has lost to only Stanford and Boise. That's respectable on the loss end. Stanford has Wake, Oregon State (top 20-30 team?), and Arizona (top 15-25).
To me, wins trump losses. A win against Oregon and crushing (crushing!) USC trumps losses against Wake, Oregon State, and Arizona, with room to spare.
Stanford is better than PSU, that's what I was saying. By a margin of 2-3 spots at minimum.
Signed. The Pac-10 is the toughest conference in football this year and losing to those teams isn't as bad as Penn State beating no one but Michigan and Michigan State.
Penn State should be lower on the list. A wussy schedule and then they lose to every strong team they have played including OSU with a suspect O. Iowa may also be ranked too high. I look at their success as being somewhat based on luck as much as anything else, along with very bad officiating in the case of Indiana.
Are also logical choices for #25, also Clemson has been pretty hot as of late (W over Miami) and could make a legitimate case for inclusion in the poll, although I dont think there are any great options there at this point; everyone has major blemishes. And the top 6, well, you can make a case for any of those teams at whatever spot you want them.
Overall, however, Tim seems to rank Big Ten teams way too high. Ohio State at #10 is ridiculous. They lost to USC and Purdue of all teams. LSU was starting a backup QB who couldn't hit the broadside of a barn and you want to penalize them for a close win after a crushing defeat the week before? Give me a break. Penn State at #13 is similarly outlandish considering the best team Penn State has beaten is probably Michigan (read: Big Ten cellar dweller unlikely to make a bowl: the 1-6 big ten record doesn't lie). The only one I agree with is Wisconsin at #19, that makes sense given their overall meh record but domination of weaker opponents (see Purdue, UM).
Either way, not alot of great options so I understand choosing teams you've seen a great deal over those you haven't, but Penn State at #13 is particularly egregious.
That USC game took a miracle drive to win, but OSU did dominate for 55 minutes of that game. A loss is a loss, but surely they shouldn't be penalized too badly for that when other teams have had far worse losses?
The Purdue game was undoubtedly a bad game for them, but Purdue is clearly a better team then their record indicates, considering many of their losses were very close, including against Notre Dame and Oregon.
I think a very good case could be made for OSU as the best 10-2 team in the country, and that they have played one of the tougher schedules in the country. If Michigan beats them, it should be all the more impressive for all of that as well.
Clemson is more deserving. 2 of their 3 losses were by a combined 7 points to top 10 teams (GT, TCU). They also have wins over Miami (7-3) and BC (7-3).
Their defense looks almost as clueless as ours.
One last note: You should drop Ohio State out of the poll completely.
Because THAT would be completely logical... Beating all of the top teams in the Big Ten is meaningless, but roll through the WAC and you're in business? Come on, I know Michigan has had a tough season, but sour grapes still taste sour.
Who have they beaten? Mighty Wyoming? A broken down Sooner team?
TCU plays a tougher schedule than they do.
By Sagarin, it's only by 2-4 places, which isn't a huge difference. I don't totally disagree though.
Texas doesn't have the toughest schedule, but they've been beating the shit out of a bunch of teams, including the toughest two opponents they've faced.
Honestly, this shouldn't be debatable. PSU has no good wins. At all. (When there's a reasonable argument to be made that Temple is your best win, the part of your schedule that isn't a bunch of Ls blows.) And that's with both opportunities for good wins being at home. Iowa, on the other hand, has three top 25 wins and a fourth (Iowa State) which is arguably as good as PSU's best win, shocking as it is to see Iowa State regarded with something other than derision. Does one moderately bad loss (keep in mind, Northwestern is tied for 4th in the conference right now, so it's not like they lost to North Texas or something) as opposed to a decent one outweigh all of that? Not even close, IMO.