Blogpoll Draft Ballot: Week 10
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | |
| 2 | Alabama | |
| 3 | Florida | |
| 4 | Cincinnati |  1 |
| 5 | TCU | 3 |
| 6 | Boise State | 1 |
| 7 | Georgia Tech | 3 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 6 |
| 9 | Iowa |  5 |
| 10 | Oregon | 4 |
| 11 | LSU | 2 |
| 12 | Houston | 1 |
| 13 | Ohio State | 3 |
| 14 | Southern Cal | 1 |
| 15 | Penn State | 3 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 1 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech | 1 |
| 18 | Miami (Florida) | 2 |
| 19 | Arizona | |
| 20 | Utah | 3 |
| 21 | Stanford | |
| 22 | Oregon State | |
| 23 | Texas Tech | 2 |
| 24 | Nebraska | |
| 25 | Brigham Young | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dude, the deltas on my ballot are not working at all. That probably (helps) explain why I got Mr. Stubborn last week, and it actually looks like I may be cruising for that award again.
I moved Texas ahead of Alabama, because the 'Horns showed that even when they play horribly, they're capable of blowing a team out.
I'm finally giving Pitt the respect they've probably deserved for the past couple week. I think that NC State loss was really holding me back, but there's hardly anybody out there who hasn't had a couple sketchy games.
I was surprised how little Iowa and Oregon moved down. I'm not sure if I like the small difference there, but I think the resumes still fit.
I don't like moving BYU in at the end of the poll, since they've gotten blown out in their only two games against actual competition. I also don't like dropping Wisconsin (though their resume isn't too different from BYU's). I think I'll switch Wisconsin back out for BYU in the final.
Comment away!
Why come Oregon is ranked so far behind Boise? They're resume is so obviously better.
Too soon?
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God Bless Your Cotton Pickin' Maize & Blue Hearts
It was better last week, it's not better anymore. I'm not ranking for predictive purposes or betting, but based on past results. Things change in that frame of reference.
Varsity Blue
Stanford 51, Oregon 42
Freep-free since Sept. 1, 2009
This is the last week we'll be seeing that.
Freep-free since Sept. 1, 2009
Except for the Alabama under Texas. UA has more quality wins than UT, but really this is all a moot point, they play themselves into the championship game and isn't worth arguing about. Also, isn't it a little bit hypocritical to punish Boise for close wins over inferior competition and not do the same to Cincy? UCONN is not a good football team and were a 2 pt conversion away from sending that game to over time. TCU seems to have a better resume than Cincy as well, I think there is a strong argument for bumping TCU over them, but I can see how one could rank them either way.
I think there's an interesting statistic regarding UConn - 5 losses by a combined 15 points.
They're a lot better than their record indicates and have given every single opponent this year (including a tough Pitt team, a decent UNC team and a decent West Virginia team) a run. UC is no different. While the Bearcats are supposedly a better team than Pitt and WV, this seems like it's a classic example of the old cliche: "UConn plays to the level of its opponents," with their only truly convincing win against Rhode Island. I wouldn't go as far as to say "UConn is not a good football team." They're not great, otherwise they would've won those games instead of lost them. But I think they're a lot more solid than you do.
Do I still think TCU has the better resume? Sure. This weekend (Utah) is a huge game for TCU, but the win against Clemson was equally huge, especially looking at Clemson's defeat of Miami and the really close loss against Georgia Tech. If TCU wins against Utah, they'll solidify a high slot in the BCS provided they don't have a bad loss in the last two.
Also, I think you're right that it's unfair to punish Boise St. for a close win against an inferior team and not UC, but then, I thought it was unfair to punish BSU in the first place. That said, if BSU had squeaked by UConn and not Tulsa, the result would be the same as it is now.
At this point, the top 3 are Florida - 'Bama - Texas, and only two of them can come out alive. Like you said, it doesn't really matter the order. It's the same with 4-5-6: UC, TCU, BSU don't matter unless Texas loses - or FLA/Bama loses and then wins the SEC championship game.
I agree that UCONN is a solid, middle of the pack Big East squad, but their best win as of right now is over Baylor. I would rate them on par with Purdue, without the quality W over Ohio State (obviously) and that, IMO, is not a quality team (a dangerous team, sure). In any case, I agree with nearly everything you mention in your post, especially the comparison between Tulsa and UCONN; that is actually very apt.
Cincy's close win is over a middle-of-the-pack Big East team. Boise's close wins are over Fresno State, Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, it could even be argued that the UC-Davis game was a hell of a lot closer than it should have been.
Varsity Blue
Weird, my resume chart had the top 3 ordered differently, so I assumed that the rest was messed up too. I'll look into it and let Brian know if there's actually any problem.
Varsity Blue
What you say about BYU applies equally to LSU. Their best win is unquestionably Auburn, who played great football early in the season but had fallen apart by the time they played LSU. SMQ did a scary breakdown of Auburn's offensive production through the season, and LSU came in the middle of a pronounced and prolonged canyon in production. After that... yikes, MSU? Georgia?
I am less than enamored with LSU this year.
I would agree, but they don't have any losses past to the #1 and #3 teams. They are at least getting things done when they are "supposed to." I think that justifies their position.
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A null result (beat cupcakes, lose to awesomeness) isn't worth a borderline top ten ranking from me. Your mileage may vary.
They haven't lost to the middle or low yet either. Same can't be said of USC, OSU, Houston, or nearly every team below them. So while I agree that they shouldn't be top 5-~10, ~11-15 seems fine.
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Tim, your deltas are fine
top 3 haven't moved
Cincinnati - 4 This week, 5 Last week, Delta + 1...correct
TCU - 5 TW, 8 LW, D +3....correct
Boise State - 6 TW, 7 LW, D +1....correct
Georgia Tech - 7 TW, 10 LW, D + 3....correct
Pittsburgh - 8 TW, 14 LW, D + 6....correct
Iowa - 9 TW, 4 LW, D -5....correct
Oregon - 10 TW, 6 LW, D -4....correct
That's the top 10. The rest of the top 25 is correct as well. I don't seem to see the problem.
OSU vs USC. If I could get an explanation. It's kind of a close enough call on scheduling that I think head-to-head may warrant tie-breaking.
OSU's losses are to USC and Purdue
USC's losses are to Oregon and Washington
OSU's top win is Penn State, then Wisconsin
USC's top win is Ohio State, then Oregon State (maybe?)
That seems to match up pretty evenly, hence me thinking tie-breaker should be head-to-head.
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I would order them the same way Brian does, though mostly on style points.
Loss to good team: USC was beaten handily by Oregon, Ohio State led almost all the way against USC. (The "loss to bad team" is in USC's favor, but slightly less so.)
Best win: Ohio State beat Penn State fairly badly, USC needed a late comeback to edge Ohio State.
Second-best win: Ohio State beat Wisconsin handily, USC beat Oregon State by 6. (Though maybe California is USC's second-best win.)
Games listed above aside, Ohio State has only one close call (Navy), while USC has a couple (Notre Dame, Arizona State).
That would be fair. I just wanted to hear Tim's (Brian no longer does the poll) reasoning.
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