Big Ten Tourney Preview: Wisconsin Comment Count

Ace

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (16-15, 8-10 B1G) vs

Wisconsin (28-3, 16-2)
WHERE United Center,

Chicago, Illinois
WHEN Noon ET, Friday
LINE Wisconsin -12 (KenPom)
TV ESPN

Right: Michigan gets another chance to topple the titans of the Big Ten. [Marc Gregor/MGoBlog]

THE US

Derrick Walton went through warmups before the Illinois game, though on the broadcast the announcers relayed that John Beilein didn't expect him to play. After the game, Walton left open the possibility of a return tomorrow:

"It's day-by-day," Walton said of his injury. "I try to see what I can do, do some warm-ups, see how I feel and if it feels well I'll play."

It'd be quite a surprise if he was able to start (or play close to starter's minutes), but some more help off the bench would be quite welcome.

After two straight strong performances as the starter, Max Bielfeldt will again take the tipoff at center. He's certainly earned it with his recent play.

THE STAKES

If Michigan wins, they're almost undoubtedly in the NIT, and they'd have a winnable semifinal game against Purdue—unless Penn State pulls another big upset—to get into the conference title game. As it stands, the Wolverines are on the NIT bubble; they had work to do to get in heading into today, but the resounding win over the Illini may have pushed them into the field.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 24 Bronson Koenig So. 6'4, 190 82 17 No
Low usage, very efficient PG. Shot 45% from three in Big Ten play.
G 21 Josh Gasser Sr. 6'4, 192 85 11 No
DEATH TO BACKBOARDS
F 15 Sam Dekker Jr. 6'9, 230 81 22 Kinda
Extremely efficient inside the arc, not a great outside shooter. Solid rebounder.
F 10 Nigel Hayes So. 6'8, 235 84 21 No
Excellent rebounder, nice touch around hoop, now has 3-pt range.
C 44 Frank Kaminsky Sr. 7'0, 234 80 29 No
1st in KenPom POY race. Nightmare matchup, can score in post or bomb threes.
F 13 Duje Dukan Sr. 6'10, 218 36 19 No
Struggling with his shot. Not much of a rebounder.
G 3 Zak Showalter So. 6'2, 185 19 16 Yes
Not asked to do much in his limited minutes. 31.5 eFG% in conference play.
F 30 Vitto Brown So. 6'8, 237 12 23 Very
Good rebounder, not a huge offensive threat.

THE RESUME

Rampaged through the Big Ten. Only conference losses came at Maryland and, uh, Rutgers. There's no way to explain the latter, even when accounting for Frank Kaminsky's absence in that game.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Wisconsin's rotation hasn't changed since the first matchup, and given the quick turnaround I'm just going to point you in the direction of that game's preview. Short version: they're terrifyingly good.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.



Four Factors explanation

Wisconsin's offense threatened to pass Michigan's record for offensive efficiency in the KenPom era, set last season, before cooling off a touch and having to settle for posting the best mark in the country this season. They're one of the top ten teams in the country in two-point percentage, above-average from beyond the arc, and they turn the ball over less than anyone in the nation.

The Badger defense is merely good, finishing third in the league in efficiency. They make up for a lack of turnovers forced by making it very tough to score inside, rarely fouling, and dominating the glass.

THE KEYS

Find a way to the rim. If Michigan tries to win this by hoisting a bunch of contested threes over Wisconsin's pack-line defense, this one could get ugly in a hurry. M's guards are going to have to figure out a way to work inside the arc; if they can't get all the way to the basket, they need to at least be creating something besides difficult floaters.

Defend inside and hope. Wisconsin finally pulled away from Michigan in overtime the first time around by feeding Kaminsky in the post; Sam Dekker also had a significant impact, hitting all five of his shots inside the arc. Michigan must do everything they can to stop those two—and Nigel Hayes—from getting easy buckets. That probably means allowing some open shots from the outside; in this matchup, M probably has to hope for a poor shooting performance from Wisconsin, which isn't out of the question—they went just 7/21 from three in the first matchup.

Win The Game. Might as well do the damn thing, right?

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Wisconsin by 12.

If it goes the way KenPom expects, at least we won't have to see those stupid fanny-pack uniformz any longer.

Comments

victors2000

March 12th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^

best effort. I really think they're on a mission, that unfinished business from last year's NCAA championship game. They probably tuned into the Michigan Illinois game and saw our effort. I'm sure Coach Ryan will remind them how it took overtime to beat us in Ann Arbor as well.

That said, we ain't the same weird guys we once were. Actually, I had to ask myself where are the weird guys? The team looked polished for the most part; they reminded me of last year's squad the way they moved the ball and ran the offense. I believe we've reached the point where the freshman are turning into sophomores; I had to smile to myself at one point late in the game that I was happy the ball was in the hands of that grizzled veteran MAAR.

I think it's going to be a great game tomorrow, and there's a chance the good guys will pull it out, but I don't think it's going to be because we catch Wisconsin napping.

Michigan4Harbaugh

March 12th, 2015 at 6:26 PM ^

Not a fan of the predict the same thing that Kenpom does. Should make an actual prediction. I will, and I'm saying screw you Kenpom. Michigan is winning this game. It's our time. Go Blue!

Walter Sobchak

March 12th, 2015 at 6:52 PM ^

You've got to hope the 5 day layoff and noon start on a neutral court will cause a slow start for Wisconsin.

Wolvie3758

March 12th, 2015 at 6:58 PM ^

If you look back at John Belein teams in the 2nd BTT tourney games they have been the underdog and undermanned. Usually playing a top ten type team they play hard keep it close but in the end always get snake-bitten and fall short...I expect this to be the case tommorow...Having said that..They are DUE to finally spring a upset..could this be the year they break the jinx.?.. Im not talking about last year) just in general thru his M career

LBSS

March 13th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^

Damn, came here to say this but you beat me to it. Props to Marc Gregor, and to Ace for the photo selection. Bravo all around. 

Now let's see if the Lilliputians can, in fact, tie Gulliver down and party on his giant prone form.

Z_Wolverista

March 13th, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^

even in sarcasm / jest (?), better make sure to cross your t's, dot your i's, and insert your apostrophe's. 

Or it just sounds dumb.

Kenpom was wrong about this match up last time, iirc.

As were those who said Illinois had more to lose than we did yesterday. They may have been fighting for a NCAA bid. We were fighting to stay alive.

This one, now, is for drawing breath with dignity.

allintime23

March 13th, 2015 at 8:56 AM ^

I was just looking at what they had percentage wise for last years ncaa field. It was about as accurate as my mothers bracket. I know it's hard to pinpoint stuff but when that's what you're known for and you're not right more than you are wrong little people like me say things.

I kind of thought about them having Iowa as the third favorite to win the big ten tourney when they went down again in the second round. Sometimes you just need to watch more basketball and put the calculator down.

umchicago

March 13th, 2015 at 7:29 AM ^

if true that he is dressing and possibly playing, that could help.  if he can provide 5-10 solid minutes to spell spike, then i would really like to see us try to run wisky out of the gym.  wisky plays just 1-2 guys off the bench.  we are smaller but quicker, so lets get some easy transition buckets and run them ragged.  the hot 3 pt shooting would be nice too.

Z_Wolverista

March 13th, 2015 at 8:40 AM ^

If Rutgers could do it, so can we.

E'erbody show up: Walton. Kam. Rahk. Dawkins. Doyle? Doyle. Irvin. Bielfeldt! Albrecht. I said: Albrecht!!! Heck, Donnal, Dakich, Lonergan... Wilson? Wilson playing? --y'all show up too. And LeVert, on the sidelines, also needed.

We almost knocked 'em off last time. Even *with* LeVert out.

Time to finish the job.

Go Blue.

 

 

  

AlCzerviksRide

March 13th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^

I am a hockey guy, and when coaching, when you give up a 3 or 4 minute deluge in your own end when it seems there is nothing you can do to clear the puck, I know there are things you can change strategy-wise, line-wise, and persuasion-wise to change things up and get my team back on track.

Basketball though, when you have a team that goes 6 or 7 or 8 minutes without a field goal or even a point sometimes, is there anything you can do? It seems there is something besides the "holy crap, we're just cold" theory when it happens in more games than it doesn't.  Or is it just that this is such a young team, that the once that ball gets rolling, it's tough for them to stop it and start getting the ball to fall again?

Arlo Pear

March 13th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^

I believe youth is part of the issue. The main thing is when teams that shoot a lot of jump shots they tend not to drive the ball. When teams to into a cold streak you want drive the ball and get to the foul line or get it into the post man and let him operate. The goal is to get a closer shot or get fouled. A veteran team or player will usually attack the basket when the jumpshot stops falling.