Big Ten Tournament Preview: Northwestern
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
#8 Michigan (20-11, 10-8 B1G) vs. #9 Northwestern (20-11, 8-10) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Bankers Life Fieldhouse Indianapolis, Indiana |
| WHEN | Noon ET, Thursday |
| LINE | Michigan -2 (KenPom) |
| TV |
BTN PBP: Kevin Kugler Analyst: Jon Crispin |
Right: Alex Olahjuwon. [Upchurch]
THE STAKES
A true must-win. Michigan isn't even among the first four teams out on the current Bracket Matrix. They need to win this game and upset Indiana in the following round to have a viable shot at making the NCAA Tournament field.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 30 | Bryant McIntosh | So. | 6'3, 185 | 87 | 25 | No | ||||||||||||
| Only Wildcat with a high assist rate (2nd B1G); eFG % plummeted in B1G play | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 3 | Tre Demps | Sr. | 6’3, 202 | 91 | 23 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Off-guard often forced to create late in shot clock, low TO, better at 2’s than 3’s | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 34 | Sanjay Lumpkin | Jr. | 6’6, 220 | 57 | 11 | Sorta | ||||||||||||
| Wallflower with just 84 FGA, terrible combo of efficiency and usage | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 35 | Aaron Falzon | Fr. | 6’8, 213 | 61 | 17 | Not Really | ||||||||||||
| Active on offensive glass, mostly shoots 3’s at 36%, low turnovers | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 22 | Alex Olah | Sr. | 7’0, 275 | 47 | 24 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Has dealt with injuries, but still a good rim protector, efficient scorer on offense | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 20 | Scottie Lindsey | So. | 6’5, 205 | 46 | 18 | No | ||||||||||||
| Other half of SF platoon w/Lumpkin, Northwestern’s best shooter at 41% from 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 44 | Gavin Skelly | So. | 6’8, 225 | 29 | 16 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Good rebounding rates in limited minutes, efficient from 2, rarely shoots | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 12 | Derek Pardon | Fr. | 6’8, 230 | 26 | 19 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Classic freshman big guy profile: rebounds well, fouls a lot, only 2’s (but at 66%) | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Only one notable change since Alex wrote up the last game's preview: backup big Joey Van Zegeran, who played only a minute in the regular-season matchup, is out for the season after a knee injury sustained in practice last week.
In that game at Crisler, Northwestern jumped out to an early lead, but the backcourt duo of Derrick Walton (16 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST) and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (19 PTS) led the comeback charge in Michigan's eventual 72-63 win—one which stands as their most recent victory of the season.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Northwestern’s offense and defense are both mediocre: their offensive efficiency ranked 9th in Big Ten play, and their defensive efficiency ranked 8th. In no individual category are they better than 5th in the conference – both their offensive and defensive rebounding rates are slightly above average. If we look back to their full-season performance (which is distorted by the weaklings on the schedule), they do a good job of avoiding turnovers, but can’t force them and never get to the free throw line.
THE KEYS
WIN THE GAME. And the next one, too.
THE MOMENT OF ZEN
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 2.
The Wolverines are a significantly better shooting squad, which should overcome Northwestern's slight edge on defense.
ELSEWHERE
March 10th, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^
...and I'm not optimistic about it. But I hope they at least go down swinging. Finishing this season (the non-NIT part, anyway) with a wimper against Northwestern would be depressing.
March 10th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 10:48 AM ^
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March 10th, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^
Too many other teams with more and better wins and higher RPI. Every bracket expert would have to be wrong. Team is what it is, poorly coached and lacking talent this year.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
Doyle and Donnal should be on the court at the same time. Maybe Beilein is worried about depth on the bench, but I would rather those guys be on the court together and make due with Chatman, Wilson and Wagner spelling them off the bench.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:34 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^
Doesn't sweat therefore, not good.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:33 AM ^
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1. Walton/Simpson
2. MAAR/Watson
3. Irvin/Robinson/Dawkins
4. Wagner/ Dawkins/chatman/ Wilson
5. Donnal/ Doyle/ Teske/ Wilson
Just tailor the lineup to matchup. But you'd think it would help rebounding especially in the bigten. It's debilitating to see teams get offensive rebound after rebound then to have it kicked out for an open three.
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March 10th, 2016 at 10:55 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^
is gerg?
March 10th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
Gerg = Greg Robinson, defensive coordinator under RichRod.
Just in case...
RichRod = Rich Rodriguez, the J. Ira and Nickie Harris Head Football Coach at Michigan prior to Brady Hoke.
Brady Hoke = The J. Ira and Nickie Harris Head Football Coach at Michigan prior to Jim Harbaugh.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^
Brady hoke?
March 10th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
he could have been talking about. Greg Jackson, Greg Mattison, Greg Robinson, this program has had a lot of Gregs, welcome newbie.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:26 AM ^
but only one Gerg.
Welcome newbie.
March 10th, 2016 at 10:55 AM ^
At this point it is a complete guessing game. Maybe we'll be in, maybe we won't. The only thing for sure is if we win this and beat IU we are probably 80% in the tourney, that would be a huge snub if we didn't, especially if you compare us to other teams that will probably get in. If we win this and get blown out by IU then I think we're have about a 40% chance of making the tourney. If we lose today, we have about a 10% chance. At this point, I'm excited for football season!! Harbaugh Harbaugh! Maybe Don Brown should coach the bball team in a little D positioning.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 11:14 AM ^
I'm a bit worried about our depth having to play an up and down the court team with little to no rest. Maybe young legs and desperation will overcome back-to-back games, but I'm skeptical. They haven't played with desperation all season.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^
and typically never count him out when he has time to prepare. Having said that, the Iowa game was such a disappointment that I'm not sure this team has it in them to win two games. I guess we will see.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:40 AM ^
Did make me feel better. Make lots of threes please, guys.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:42 AM ^
If they are going to make the tournament, they have to start today. My guess is they win today, then probably lose to IU. At that point, they are on the outside looking in unless a couple of other teams struggle or people are too high on (looking at your Monmouth).
March 10th, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^
That run by Smith!
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How the hell do we let them get three shots off, in two posessions in the final 26 seconds, with a foul to give? WOW.... we're bad, we're really, really bad.
Robinson needs to watch tape of our last three games. If he moved without the ball, the way NW, Iowa and WS shooters do, he's get more open looks.
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