Big Ten Tournament Preview: Indiana
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#8 Michigan (21-11, 10-8 B1G) vs #1 Indiana (25-6, 15-4) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Bankers Life Fieldhouse Indianapolis, Indiana |
WHEN | Noon ET, Friday |
LINE | Indiana -7 (KenPom) |
TV | ESPN |
Right: Obligatory. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
THE STAKES
A win and Michigan likely secures an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. A loss almost certainly relegates Michigan to the NIT. The stakes don't get much higher.
THE LAST TIME
Let's not talk about the last time.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 11 | Yogi Ferrell | Sr. | 6'0, 180 | 86 | 25 | No | ||||||||||||
One of the best PGs in the country. Great outside shooter, distributor. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 4 | Robert Johnson (inj.)* | So. | 6'3, 195 | 57 | 18 | No | ||||||||||||
Excellent three-point shooter. Inefficient inside arc. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 30 | Collin Hartman | Jr. | 6'7, 215 | 55 | 13 | No | ||||||||||||
Low-usage, Just A Shooter™ type making 38% of threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 5 | Troy Williams | Jr. | 6'7, 215 | 64 | 26 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Great athlete and finisher, impactful defender, improved shooter, TO-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 31 | Thomas Bryant | Fr. | 6'10, 245 | 56 | 22 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Top-flight post scorer also boasts strong rebounding and block rates. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 2 | Nick Zeisloft | Sr. | 6'4, 210 | 49 | 13 | No | ||||||||||||
Has attempted 139 threes and 14 twos this season. 43% 3P shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 0 | Max Bielfeldt | Gr. | 6'8, 240 | 43 | 22 | No | ||||||||||||
Rebounding and scoring well, third-best steal rate in B1G. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 3 | OG Anunoby | Fr. | 6'8, 215 | 31 | 18 | No | ||||||||||||
Efficient inside-outside scorer, good offensive rebounder, turnover-prone. |
*Robert Johnson has missed IU's last three games with a high ankle sprain; while there hasn't been a definitive update on his status, there's a decent chance he's available to play. Forward Juwan Morgan's status is also up in the air after he appeared to aggravate a shoulder injury on Sunday against Maryland.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Covered in detail in the preview of the regular-season matchup. Sharpshooter Nick Zeisloft replaced Robert Johnson in the starting lineup when Johnson went down with a sprained ankle; even if Johnson is able to give it a go, it's safe to assume he'll ease his way back. Zeisloft isn't on Johnson's level as a distributor and finisher inside the arc, but he's less turnover-prone and an equally deadly outside shooter.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Indiana is one of the better shooting teams in the country; they're second nationally in eFG%, fifth in three-point percentage, and seventh in two-point percentage. They also do a good job crashing the boards—Bryant is especially effective in that regard—and their weak point is turnovers; aside from Zeisloft, who pretty much just catches and shoots, every rotation player has a turnover rate of 16 or higher.
The key to cracking Indiana's defense is finding a way to generate good looks from the outside; the Hoosiers finished second in the B1G in 3PA/FGA allowed and their opponents score just 27% of their points on threes—for comparison, Michigan gets 40% of their points from beyond the arc. Michigan couldn't accomplish this in the first matchup, going 7/23 from three-point distance.
THE KEYS
Don't go on a ten-minute scoring drought. Please and thank you.
Fire away in transition. To keep up with IU's powerful offense, Michigan is going to have to get some points on the fast break. Thankfully, the Hoosiers are one of the more turnover-prone teams in the country. Duncan Robinson finally got his shot going against Northwestern and he could have a chance to build on that with spot-up looks in transition.
Break Yogi Ferrell's Charm of Eternal Youth. I mean, seriously, why hasn't anyone thought of this before?
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Indiana by 7.
Perhaps the do-or-die nature of the game will bring something extra out of Michigan, but you could've said the same thing heading into the Northwestern game and they continued not to inspire much confidence.
I think KENPOM dropped the ball on this one. We are going to get stomped.
Since Kenpom is always right, what does Indiana by 7 do for our tourney chances?
Shifts them to NIT.
Actually I am surprised that it is only 7.
Me too. I think it's a typo. It's missing a "1" to go with the 7.
Indiana by 71.
There, fixed it.
It's a BIG tourney game. These games are usually a little odd. Both teams get little rest. I think it'll be close. /fingers crossed.
March 11th, 2016 at 10:29 AM ^
Actually, just Michigan gets little rest. Indiana hasn't played since they blasted Maryland on Sunday.
Well done, M-Dog.
Don't get the 7.
They beat us at home by 13.
This is essentially a home game for them in the playoffs.
Either Kenpom is wrong, or he is really Biff with a future Grays Sports Almanac.
I don't think this game can possibly move us from "definitely out" to "definitely in". There has to be more gray area than that, this is just one of more than 30 data points on the season the committee will look at. Either way, we have to accept there is some uncertainty in what the committee will do, and this extra evidence is quite small, and therefore it is possible both to beat Indiana and go to the NIT, and to lose and get into the NCAAs.
It's a good way to sell the game I guess but I don't think it's that simple at all.
Edit: I understand that the more surprising new evidence (a win over Indiana) will weigh more heavily.. and agree we're probably out right now. But if we're so sure we're out right now, then I am not convinced beating Indiana will be enough.
What is keeping us out right now is that even though we do not have any bad losses, we do not have enough good wins.
Beating IU - Big Ten champs and BTT #1 seed - fixes that.
Losing to IU just gives us another loss to a non-bad team. We already have enough of those!
There is next to zero chance that Michigan gets in without beating Indiana, but you are right that a win is not a guarantee. The win gets us on the bubble.
Michigan would still need to play well in it's next game to improve it's chances of not being on the wrong side of the bubble.
There's as much chance of that as Don Brown calling me a dude.
March 11th, 2016 at 10:22 AM ^
I hear you, but saying IU is just one of 30-some data points is equating it to Youngstown State and Delaware State and so on, which is silly. Wins against teams ranked worse than 200th prove nothing.
U-M doesn't have many good wins; let's see if it can get one here.
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I lose my heart, gut and soul on it. Next season please!
More than this board does.
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100%
I think it's more that Beilein mostly whiffed the last couple years in recruiting.
They just don't seem like very good players, not so much that they aren't trying, but maybe that the talent/mental aspect isn't so great.
This is on Beilein... if it's more of the same shit next year I think we should consider a replacement (depending on the market).
I really do appreciate what the guy has done here. He put us in a good place overall.
Identifying under the radar guys early and turning them into NBA players (Hardaway Jr., Burke, Stauskas, LaVert, GR3). But that well has run dry it appears, as has the player development for whatever reason. Outside of Rahkman and maybe Donnal, guys have either not gotten better or regressed. If this continues much longer, Michigan will be back to where we were in the early Beilein tenure.
Not sure how 'under the radar' some of the guys you mention were. On 247, Burke was a 4 star and the 93rd ranked player nationally, GR3 was a 5 star and the 16th ranked player nationally while Stauskas was a 4 star and the 82nd ranked player nationally.
Cool
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This is the last of our 5 or 6 chances to lock up this bid. Let's do this boys.
And you have a good chance to win. It's simple. Then again it takes us a full half to guard Forbes.
I've always loved that Tom Crean photo. It looks like he's had a recent gastric bypass and hasn't had time to buy smaller size suits.
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I can't look at this pic and not automatically think "DOWN. BY. THE RIVER".
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Just laughed out loud to this. You're right. It's not a very flattering photo of Tom by any means.
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It is disgusting that we had SOOOO many chances to put ourselves into the tournament. Win this game, win that game, even beat damn OSU, a terrible team, nope. We don't even deserve it. Our third year starting point guard scored 2! points in arguably the most important game of the season. Terrible season, I'm sorry for Caris and Spike, I'm not sorry for anyone else. They deserved much, much better than their fate they got.
It's hard to stay positive when, darn near every time this team has been faced with a chance to beat a good team and get in, they ...ahem... haven't beaten them and have looked bad in the process.
Kenpom missed a 1 in front of the 7.
How fitting will it be to have Max help end out tourney hopes? One of many failures by JB and his staff that have made this an Amaker like season.
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That would be poetic justice. I've got a gut feeling that Michigan plays IU tight and then Beilfeldt hits a game winning 3 pointer right in front of the Michigan bench.
March 11th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^
I don't understand why that would be fitting not how it is a failure.
You are a fucking idiot.
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I'll hold out hope, but IU isn't the team you want to see right now in a tourney. Still, if they can keep the scoring droughts away this team can hang offensively with IU.
Only by 7? I thought it'd be about 14.
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March 10th, 2016 at 10:03 PM ^
I do not see this game ending well at all.
Michigan will need to shoot lights out for 40 minutes and play solid defense to even have a shot in this game.
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March 11th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^
And someone PLEASE defend that little yogi bastard. He kills us every time.
March 10th, 2016 at 10:25 PM ^
It's one thing to be realistic, but most of the posters need to find another team.
March 10th, 2016 at 10:40 PM ^
At least we don't play the game in Indiana this time, amirite?
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March 10th, 2016 at 10:58 PM ^
Win or lose michigan will make the tourney. Michigan fans are out of touch to the situation. We have played games for months and one game is going to make or break us ? That is false.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:25 PM ^
So your either a Michigan fan or player? If your a fan then I agree you're out of touch.
March 11th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^
I am a fan and a player actually (not basketball).
Women?
March 11th, 2016 at 12:55 AM ^
20 wins 10-8 in the big, we should be in, but rpi is stupid.
March 11th, 2016 at 12:55 AM ^
20 wins 10-8 in the big, we should be in, but rpi is stupid.
March 11th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
This is classic bubble-ness. The team is a bubble to NIT bound team.
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I understand being discouraged with this years' basketball club. But, some of the negativity on this board has reached crazy heights. Whatever happens, it's still our team. Let's cheer em on! How about we stop shitting on them.
+1,000,000
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Illinois beat Iowa. Nebraska beat Wisconsin. It could happen. Upsets never make sense on paper.
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Iowa and Wisconsin =\= Indiana. Wisconsin is fighting to get into the tournament like us, and Iowa is in a free fall.
True in that an upset could happen, but unless Michigan shoots lights out and all of a sudden learns to play defense, I think we'll lose by at least 10.
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