Big Ten Tournament Preview: Indiana Comment Count

Ace

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #8 Michigan (21-11, 10-8 B1G) vs

#1 Indiana (25-6, 15-4)
WHERE Bankers Life Fieldhouse

Indianapolis, Indiana
WHEN Noon ET, Friday
LINE Indiana -7 (KenPom)
TV ESPN

Right: Obligatory. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE STAKES

A win and Michigan likely secures an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. A loss almost certainly relegates Michigan to the NIT. The stakes don't get much higher.

THE LAST TIME

Let's not talk about the last time.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 11 Yogi Ferrell Sr. 6'0, 180 86 25 No
One of the best PGs in the country. Great outside shooter, distributor.
G 4 Robert Johnson (inj.)* So. 6'3, 195 57 18 No
Excellent three-point shooter. Inefficient inside arc. Turnover-prone.
F 30 Collin Hartman Jr. 6'7, 215 55 13 No
Low-usage, Just A Shooter™ type making 38% of threes.
F 5 Troy Williams Jr. 6'7, 215 64 26 Not really
Great athlete and finisher, impactful defender, improved shooter, TO-prone.
C 31 Thomas Bryant Fr. 6'10, 245 56 22 Not really
Top-flight post scorer also boasts strong rebounding and block rates.
G 2 Nick Zeisloft Sr. 6'4, 210 49 13 No
Has attempted 139 threes and 14 twos this season. 43% 3P shooter.
F 0 Max Bielfeldt Gr. 6'8, 240 43 22 No
Rebounding and scoring well, third-best steal rate in B1G. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
F 3 OG Anunoby Fr. 6'8, 215 31 18 No
Efficient inside-outside scorer, good offensive rebounder, turnover-prone.

*Robert Johnson has missed IU's last three games with a high ankle sprain; while there hasn't been a definitive update on his status, there's a decent chance he's available to play. Forward Juwan Morgan's status is also up in the air after he appeared to aggravate a shoulder injury on Sunday against Maryland.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Covered in detail in the preview of the regular-season matchup. Sharpshooter Nick Zeisloft replaced Robert Johnson in the starting lineup when Johnson went down with a sprained ankle; even if Johnson is able to give it a go, it's safe to assume he'll ease his way back. Zeisloft isn't on Johnson's level as a distributor and finisher inside the arc, but he's less turnover-prone and an equally deadly outside shooter.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.



Four Factors explanation

Indiana is one of the better shooting teams in the country; they're second nationally in eFG%, fifth in three-point percentage, and seventh in two-point percentage. They also do a good job crashing the boards—Bryant is especially effective in that regard—and their weak point is turnovers; aside from Zeisloft, who pretty much just catches and shoots, every rotation player has a turnover rate of 16 or higher.

The key to cracking Indiana's defense is finding a way to generate good looks from the outside; the Hoosiers finished second in the B1G in 3PA/FGA allowed and their opponents score just 27% of their points on threes—for comparison, Michigan gets 40% of their points from beyond the arc. Michigan couldn't accomplish this in the first matchup, going 7/23 from three-point distance.

THE KEYS

Don't go on a ten-minute scoring drought. Please and thank you.

Fire away in transition. To keep up with IU's powerful offense, Michigan is going to have to get some points on the fast break. Thankfully, the Hoosiers are one of the more turnover-prone teams in the country. Duncan Robinson finally got his shot going against Northwestern and he could have a chance to build on that with spot-up looks in transition.

Break Yogi Ferrell's Charm of Eternal Youth. I mean, seriously, why hasn't anyone thought of this before?

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Indiana by 7.

Perhaps the do-or-die nature of the game will bring something extra out of Michigan, but you could've said the same thing heading into the Northwestern game and they continued not to inspire much confidence.

Comments

BornInAA

March 10th, 2016 at 4:46 PM ^

Don't get the 7.

They beat us at home by 13.

This is essentially a home game for them in the playoffs.

Either Kenpom is wrong, or he is really Biff with a future Grays Sports Almanac.

johnthesavage

March 10th, 2016 at 4:50 PM ^

I don't think this game can possibly move us from "definitely out" to "definitely in". There has to be more gray area than that, this is just one of more than 30 data points on the season the committee will look at. Either way, we have to accept there is some uncertainty in what the committee will do, and this extra evidence is quite small, and therefore it is possible both to beat Indiana and go to the NIT, and to lose and get into the NCAAs.

It's a good way to sell the game I guess but I don't think it's that simple at all.

Edit: I understand that the more surprising new evidence (a win over Indiana) will weigh more heavily.. and agree we're probably out right now. But if we're so sure we're out right now, then I am not convinced beating Indiana will be enough.

Lanknows

March 10th, 2016 at 6:46 PM ^

There is next to zero chance that Michigan gets in without beating Indiana, but you are right that a win is not a guarantee.  The win gets us on the bubble.

Michigan would still need to play well in it's next game to improve it's chances of not being on the wrong side of the bubble.

Glen Masons Hot Wife

March 10th, 2016 at 7:03 PM ^

I think it's more that Beilein mostly whiffed the last couple years in recruiting.

They just don't seem like very good players, not so much that they aren't trying, but maybe that the talent/mental aspect isn't so great.

This is on Beilein... if it's more of the same shit next year I think we should consider a replacement (depending on the market).

I really do appreciate what the guy has done here. He put us in a good place overall.

True Blue Grit

March 11th, 2016 at 7:15 AM ^

Identifying under the radar guys early and turning them into NBA players (Hardaway Jr., Burke, Stauskas, LaVert, GR3).  But that well has run dry it appears, as has the player development for whatever reason.  Outside of Rahkman and maybe Donnal, guys have either not gotten better or regressed.  If this continues much longer, Michigan will be back to where we were in the early Beilein tenure.

blue90

March 10th, 2016 at 5:49 PM ^

It is disgusting that we had SOOOO many chances to put ourselves into the tournament.  Win this game, win that game, even beat damn OSU, a terrible team, nope.  We don't even deserve it.  Our third year starting point guard scored 2! points in arguably the most important game of the season.  Terrible season, I'm sorry for Caris and Spike, I'm not sorry for anyone else.  They deserved much, much better than their fate they got.

 

93Grad

March 10th, 2016 at 6:21 PM ^

How fitting will it be to have Max help end out tourney hopes? One of many failures by JB and his staff that have made this an Amaker like season.




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bronxblue

March 10th, 2016 at 6:45 PM ^

I'll hold out hope, but IU isn't the team you want to see right now in a tourney. Still, if they can keep the scoring droughts away this team can hang offensively with IU.

Gucci Mane

March 10th, 2016 at 10:58 PM ^

Win or lose michigan will make the tourney. Michigan fans are out of touch to the situation. We have played games for months and one game is going to make or break us ? That is false.

gobluerebirth

March 11th, 2016 at 3:06 AM ^

I understand being discouraged with this years' basketball club. But, some of the negativity on this board has reached crazy heights. Whatever happens, it's still our team. Let's cheer em on! How about we stop shitting on them.