THE ESSENTIALS

Right: BAIL. [Fuller]

THE PREVIOUS MATCHUP

Michigan and Illinois played once in the regular season: last Tuesday, when the Wolverines eviscerated the Illini for an 84-53 victory in Champaign. This clinched the outright Big Ten regular-season title for Michigan.

I double-posted Muppets in lieu of a game recap. Brian barely wrote about the actual game because it didn't merit analysis deeper than "Michigan made ALL OF THE SHOTS." There were GIFs aplenty.

A repeat of this would be more than welcome.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold:

THE THEM

Illinois knocked off Indiana 64-54 in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament today, giving the Illini their fifth win in six games. In those five wins, they've held their opponents—Minnesota, Nebraska, MSU, Iowa, and IU —to 0.89 points per possession. That lone loss came to Michigan, of course, when the Wolverines scored 1.33 points per trip.

The rest of this is updated from the preview of the first game because very little has changed:

While the Illini defense has been solid throughout the season, they have the worst-shooting offense in the conference on the other end, and a look through their lineup brings forth some awful numbers, like these: point guard Tracy Abrams, a decent passer and solid on-ball defender, takes nearly 24% of the team's shots when he's on the floor—he's shooting 38% from two and 28% from three.

The team's best offensive player is Rayvonte Rice, a bulldog of a guard—6'4", 235 pounds—who takes over a third of his shots at the rim, hitting them at a 63% clip, per hoop-math. He also gets to the line at a high rate, hits 72% of his free throws, and boasts an impressively low 11.5% TORate for a player that relies so much on creating off the dribble. He's not much of a shooter, however, making 30% of his two-point jumpers and 31% of his three-pointers. Rice is statistically the team's best defensive rebounder, which is impressive for him and much less so for the team.

Coach John Groce replaced two seniors, Joseph Bertrand and Jon Ekey, with freshmen Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill in the starting lineup nine games ago; in that span, Illinois is 6-3, and the lineup is slated to remain the same tomorrow. Nunn takes nearly as many threes as twos and connects at a 40% rate from beyond the arc. Hill is holding his own as an undersized four, doing a decent job on the glass while making up for poor shooting from the field by getting to the charity stripe at a 52% rate and hitting 78% of his free throws. Ekey falls into the "just a shooter" category, which isn't too good when hitting just 36% from three, though he's hit some huge shots of late. Bertrand is a worse-rebounding, better-shooting version of Hill, and he gets to the line less often.

The starting center is 6'11" enigma Nnnanna Egwu, who still hasn't put it all together in his junior season. He's a great shot-blocker and solid offensive rebounder, but his 14.3 defensive rebounding percentage is alarmingly low for a center of his size. He boasts a solid mid-range jumper, but his post offense is so poor he's shooting just 43% on two-pointers. For some reason, he's attempted 23 three-pointers, of which he's hit five.

For better or worse, Illinois is stuck with Egwu at the five. Freshman backups Maverick Morgan and Austin Colbert play spot minutes, and while their finishing at the basket is well ahead of Egwu's, both players commit a lot of fouls while failing to provide Egwu's shot-blocking. Also, both are somehow worse on the defensive boards. Colbert's 7.2 DR% is the worst among any qualifying Illinois player—that's 1.1% lower than Spike Albrecht's rate. (EDIT: Colbert no longer plays enough minutes to qualify for KenPom's page, but according to Statsheet his 8.1 DR% is now equal to Spike's.)

THE RESUME

Since the last matchup, Illinois knocked off Iowa by three on the road to cap the regular season, then won today against Indiana.

THE TEMPO-FREE

This section from the first preview proved prescient:

Relying on forcing turnovers, especially in the low-error Big Ten, tends to produce results of high variance; Illinois has been very good defensively in the last four games, but they've also been lit up by the likes of Wisconsin (1.34 ppp in Kohl), MSU (1.18 at Ill.), Iowa (1.14 at Ill.), and Wisconsin again (1.21 at Ill.)—aside from last weekend's game in East Lansing, Illinois has had a difficult time shutting down the conference's best offenses.

Illinois forces the second-most turnovers in the Big Ten; they have the third-worst eFG% against. One of these things held up against Michigan.

Offensively, they're not good: Illinois is dead last in the Big Ten in two-point shooting (42.1%) and tenth in three-point shooting (30.4%) while getting to the line at the league's worst rate. Scoring points is the goal of basketball, and it's rather difficult to do without putting the ball in the hoop. Not helping matters is their below-average rebounding. Add it all up and the only Big Ten team with a worse offense is Northwestern.

THE KEYS

Play in control. Turnovers sparked the Illinois turnaround of late. Michigan boasts the league's second-lowest turnover rate. Taking care of the ball as the Wolverines usually do will go a long way towards winning this game; even though Illinois isn't great in transition, they still score more effectively on the break than they do in the halfcourt.

Exploit perimeter matchups. Illinois is going to have to defend either Nik Stauskas or Caris LeVert (probably the latter) with a player three inches shorter. Expect a healthy dose of high screens for whomever gets this matchup, especially given how willing John Beilein has been to let his stars rise and fire over shorter defenders whenever they get an opening. 

Get out on shooters. Should Michigan come remotely close to a repeat of their first offensive performance against Illinois, the only way the Illini can keep up is by getting unusually hot from beyond the arc. While they're not great from the outside as a team, they've got a few players capable of stringing a few shots together: Ekey, Bertrand, and Nunn, especially.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 5

Elsewhere

UMHoops BTT preview.