Big Ten Stockwatch: Week 2 Edition Comment Count

Brian

With Michigan having dispatched its major nonconference foes, it's time to survey the rest of the league for indications as to how tough their sledding will be as they try to reach one of those bowl things.

First, and just to be whiny:

dan-persa Northwestern

Vanderbilt: W 23-21
Illinois State: W 37-3

This is probably going to be the suckiest year at Northwestern in a while. They were considerably outgained by Vandy and only won on an egregious call that the Big Ten later apologized for, except they didn't. So of course they're off the schedule.

Stock: down.

Minnesota

MTSU: W 24-17
South Dakota: L 38-41

With the Big Ten moving to divisions next year comes the functional end of one of the most-hated traditions in Michigan football: always missing the worst team in the league. Minnesota fans are here after they lost by two scores to South Dakota, completing their collection of humiliating losses from teams in a Dakota:

Tim Brewster isn't getting canned anytime soon.

I'd be fine with it happening today. I have zero faith he's going to turn this around this year because there has been no evidence in his four seasons here that he's capable of doing it. Still, it's not going to happen because as much as the season feels like it's over right now, it's not. Look no further than the Kansas Jayhawks: last week they lost to NDSU (remember how that felt?) 6-3 in what has to be the ugliest football game ever played. Not a great way to start off the Turner Gill Era. Yesterday, the hosted #15 Georgia Tech- AND WON! Talk about a shocker. Talk about a turnaround. It's one example, but it's proof the season isn't over yet. No matter how much you may hate Brewster and mistrust the coaching staff this morning, it's still very possible we turn this around.

Regardless, even if we lose to USC next week and NIU the week after AND Northwestern the week after that...we're still mathematically bowl eligible at 1-4.

Gopher bloggers are now declaring 1-11 a "distinct possibility" and asserting the upside to be 3-9. So, yeah, of course they're off the schedule.

Stock: LOL.


To teams on the schedule:

@ Indiana

Towson: W 51-17

A win over a I-AA team doesn't mean much, though Towson did just squeak by Coastal Carolina in five(!) overtimes. Chances are Michigan won't have any read on how competitive Indiana is going to be before they head to Bloomington. Their next two games are against Western Kentucky (0-12 last year, lost to Nebraska 49-10 and Kentucky 63-28) and Akron (lost to Syracuse 29-3 and I-Aa Gardner-Webb 38-37).

Stock: even by reason of virtual bye and actual bye.

edwin-baker Michigan State

Western Michigan: W 38-14
Florida Atlantic: W 30-17

Not a ton to learn from the first two games. Western hung tight for a quarter but let the game get away in the second, finishing 160 yards back by the game's end. FWIW, Western was bad last year and will probably be worse this year without Hiller—his replacement looked like Nate Montana.

The FAU game was slightly uncomfortable as the Owls were driving to pull within one score late until Howard Schellenberger exclaimed "suspenders!" and kicked a field goal; total yardage was 367-301. State's offense consisted of big plays including an 80-yard touchdown from Edwin Baker, 42 and 30 yard receptions from Keshawn Martin and BJ Cunningham. If there's something to be concerned about it's a seeming lack of progress in the passing game; Notre Dame will provide much more information along those lines.

Stock: even.

Iowa

Eastern Illinois: W 37-7
Iowa State: W 35-7

Iowa State is certainly awful by virtue of being Iowa State, but Ferentz has struggled against his cross-state rivals so a righteous pounding seems like a step forward even if last year's game was 35-3. Another step forward is a lack of Stanziball, though Iowa State did not provide a major test. Stanzi only had to throw 18 times. Iowa bloggers seem happy, at least.

Stock: up slightly, since the chance they'd have a meh game against Iowa State has gone by the wayside. Considerably more information coming this weekend when they travel to Arizona.

boldenx-large @ Penn State

Youngstown State: W 44-14
Alabama: L 24-3

The eeee Bolden hype after he did not self destruct against penguins (seriously, YSU is the Penguins) was a bit much, and indeed the Penn State offense came to a screeching halt at Alabama. Penn State blew two early opportunities to punch in touchdowns, came away with only three points for the whole game, and finished with just 283 yards of offense. Freshman quarterback in Tuscaloosa against Saban and his merry band of guys good enough to not get cut, but that's a worst-case scenario any way you slice it. Bolden was 13/29 for 144 yards, 5 YPA, and two interceptions.

Perhaps more disturbingly for Penn State, Evan Royster had a Michigan-tailback-esque day against 'Bama, putting up 32 yards on 9 carries. That follows a 11 carry, 40 yard performance against Youngstown State on a day when Penn State averaged just 4.6 YPC against a I-AA opponent, and only managed because Kevin Newsome's ELECTRIC RUNNING went for 21 yards on 3 carries. Initial diagnosis of Penn State OL: ass.

Defensively, it's also not so good. Bama was efficient on the ground and in the air, with Trent Richardson averaging 6.5 YPC and Greg McElroy 9.5 YPA. A lack of corresponding scoring seems attributable to 'Bama stretching out in the luxury of a three-score lead against an opponent with a freshman quarterback.

Stock: down. Right now this looks winnable, though not probable.

Illinois

Missouri: L 23-13
Southern Illinois: W 35-3

SIU was a pretty good I-AA team a year ago, losing to Marshall by just 3 in their opener and then going undefeated against the rest of their schedule until going down to William & Mary in the I-AA playoffs. Illinois outgained them by almost two to one and clobberated them. So that's okay.

The loss to Mizzou was grim, though. After hopping out to a 13-3 lead it was all Missouri in the second half; the Tigers ended up outgaining Illinois 379-281. Throw in a –3 turnover margin thanks to the exceptional generosity of Nathan Scheelhaase and it's a wonder this didn't get out of hand. Scheelhaase was 9/23 for 81 yards, a TD, and 3 INTs, but did add 76 rushing yards on 16 carries. Denard Robinson thinks that's cute, kid.

Mikel Leshoure looks like a legit Big Ten feature back and Illinois controlled Missouri's ground game pretty well, but initial returns on the post-Juice era are looking a lot like returns on the Juice era, hopefully minus Mike Williams exploding.

Stock: probably even since no one expected much from Illinois; Michigan is probably feeling better given the passing performance against Mizzou.

@ Purdue

Notre Dame: L 23-12
Western Illinois: W 31-21

Purdue struggled against Notre Dame and did worse relative to level of competition against Western Illinois. Despite being 1-10 in I-AA last year, WIU was tied at 7-7 late in the second quarter when they went for it on fourth and one by bombing it deep. It was incomplete, Purdue executed a two-minute drill for a touchdown, the ensuing kickoff was fumbled with 13 seconds left in the half, and Purdue was able to pull away… for a while, anyway. Total yardage ended up 406-402, Western Illinois.

In the aftermath, Hammer and Rails says "I haven't seen so much negativity around here since Robbie Hummel went down." Problems unsurprisingly include the OL:

I liked the comment I saw in last night's game wrap pertaining to our line being a sieve. BenJapal responded with, "Calling our offensive line a sieve is to imply that a small amount was being restrained."

He's exactly right. Peters Drey had a pretty bad game. I think there was at least one bad snap, and he somehow managed to commit three penalties on two plays. Nick Mondek is whiffing on blocks left and right at right tackle. I thought he was supposed to be the best guy there! What happened to Trevor Foy and Ryan Prater?

After two games Purdue is averaging a Sheridan-esque 5.1 yards per attempt. Fans now seem to be hoping for 7 or 8 wins, a significant step back from mutterings about being a darkhorse contender in the BIg Ten this year.

Stock: considerably down. Michigan should be a favorite despite being on the road, not something that would have been the case before the season.

Wisconsin

John_Clay_Wisconsin

UNLV: W 41-21
San Jose State: W 27-14

Wisconsin has been dominant statistically but sloppy in its first two. They put up what might be the most impressive non-UConn box score in the Big Ten by outgaining UNLV 475-217. Ground: 50 carries, 278 yards, 5.6 YPC. Air: 15/20, 197 yards, 9.9 YPA. San Jose State was closer as Wisconsin threw away chances to break away and lost focus late. It's still a start about on par with what was expected.

(PS: bet you're wishing you didn't cancel that Virginia Tech series now, eh?)

Stock: even. Not getting my hopes up here.

@ Ohio State

Marshall: W 45-7
Miami: W 36-24

The Marshall demolition looks a lot better now that the Herd coulda-woulda-shoulda taken down West Virginia for the first time ever, especially since total yardage in that game was pretty close to even. Against OSU the final tally read Basically A Billion-Zero.

The Miami game was deeply strange, with Jacory Harris throwing 4 INTs and Ohio State coverage units giving up two(!) return touchdowns. OSU outgained the 'Canes by about 60 yards, but Terrelle Pryor's 12 of 27 performance has to be worrying.

Stock: even. Very good team with Qs about Pryor is exactly what the deal was before the season.

Comments

erik_t

September 14th, 2010 at 11:41 AM ^

Minnesota only lost by two scores if we were only allowed to score safeties, which with that defense lol. It was a three-point margin. It's fun commentary on the state of my program that I find fractional comfort in that, as we came from down 18 (yes) at one point.

 

Stock is approximately correct, though.

Not a Blue Fan

September 14th, 2010 at 11:46 AM ^

I think you can make a reasonable argument that Wisconsin's stock may be dropping slightly. After watching them in both games, I can't think of any good things to say about their defense (other than "OMG WHY DID OSU NOT RECRUIT CHRIS BORLAND" and "Jay Valai is going to murder someone before the end of the season"). Suspect defense and sloppy play may wind up costing them a game (or two) this season.

With respect to tOSU, I think that their stock would be dropping as a result of a quirky performance EXCEPT that they played a quality (ish...the ACC blows this year) opponent. The defense is improved from last year, but the offense doesn't really look any different.

Not a Blue Fan

September 14th, 2010 at 1:10 PM ^

Eh, after only 2 games I'm not sure either. I will say this, though: they effectively stopped our rushing game outside of Pryor. That being said, when Pryor is running the ball well he's really hard to to stop by virtue of being a gigantic dude who is very fast.

Also, let me add that our defense is very, very good. Harris had a pretty crummy day trying to pick it apart, and Berry had only 94 yards rushing on the day (which sounds OK, until you realize that 42 of those yards came on 1 play). Once again, that's the strength of this team.

MI Expat NY

September 14th, 2010 at 12:41 PM ^

Yes, their offense is better than game 2 last year, but nobody was really expecting them to be national title contenders last year either.  After the Rose Bowl, expectations are higher for the offense and I'm not sure they've quite lived up to it.  But then again, neither really have any of the other national title hopefuls, with the possible exception of Oregon.

Njia

September 14th, 2010 at 4:03 PM ^

Is not what's happening on the field. The special teams play was really sloppy against the 'Canes, (Two returns for TDs? WTF?). I don't doubt that there will be considerable effort in trying to improve it over the next several weeks. If anything "costs" OSU a win this year, that may well be it.

befuggled

September 14th, 2010 at 4:47 PM ^

Even in good years it's not uncommon to see them struggle a little against a lesser non-conference opponent before going on to have a good season. For instance, in 1999 they lost to a 3-8 Cincinnati team, lost another close game to Michigan and then won the rest of their games and the Rose Bowl.In 2006 they eeked out a 14-0 win over 3-9 San Jose State, lost again to Michigan but finished 12-1.

zlionsfan

September 14th, 2010 at 11:54 AM ^

In addition to playing like crap in the first two games, they also lost WR Keith Smith with what looks to be a season-ending injury. Unfortunately, he's perhaps the most talented receiver on the team, so even if Marve does get better protection, he's going to have a weaker set of targets.

Basically, they're a middle-of-the-pack team, but now missing their best RB (Bolden) and best WR. I'm afraid at this point, 7-8 wins is a wildly optimistic prediction.

wigeon

September 14th, 2010 at 12:42 PM ^

My God their DE's and OLB's looked horrible against WIU.  I saw maybe 20-25 snaps with WIU on offense, and on 90% of them any back with speed would have burned them for 10 yards plus.

The DE's could not disengage from blocks and the OLB's got sucked to the interior almost every play.  

No kidding, the worst Big 10-level front 7 play I've seen in 15-20 years.  We'll put up 50 on them. 

zlionsfan

September 14th, 2010 at 10:07 PM ^

the Purdue boards have seen. The defense was supposed to be similar to Michigan's (albeit weaker): players at DL and LB, a couple of them pretty good, and question marks in the secondary. If the entire defense consists of question marks, even with a healthy offense, they'll play like a high-level MAC team. With a beat-up offense, ugh.

Hope was Tiller's choice as successor, but it had been years since he'd left Purdue, and he was just an OL coach most of that time. (Position coaches moving to head coach: meh. Coordinators moving to head coach: better. I-AA experience: some guys make the cut, others don't.) So far, his tenure has been unimpressive, even considering the win in Ann Arbor last season (IME equally due to good play on Purdue's part and the regime change at UM), I doubt Morgan Burke would give him the axe with four years left on his contract, but stranger things have happened, and if it weren't for the amazingly soft schedule (Ball State and Toledo next, Minnesota and Indiana later), 3-9 might be a realistic fate.

Of course, from a Michigan perspective, that neatly eliminates any possibility of a three-game losing streak (to Purdue). Purdue struggles to tackle carbon-based life forms. Dilithium? Unstoppable.

Wolverine0056

September 14th, 2010 at 12:00 PM ^

Scheelhaase was 9/23 for 81 yards, a TD, and 3 INTs, but did add 76 rushing yards on 16 carries. Denard Robinson thinks that's cute, kid.

LOL brilliant line. I think every game is winnable, but Iowa, Wisconsin and OSU are still tough games anyway you look at it. I don't think 8-9 wins is too hard to imagine at this point.

joeyb

September 14th, 2010 at 1:00 PM ^

Using the logic that most people were using before the season, we have 5 games we absolutely should win, 2 tossups that are already wins, 2 tossups YTBD, and 3 we should lose. Split the tossups and we are 8-4.

If we keep playing well, our defense continues to hold teams to 24 points or less, and we get our running backs going, those 2 tossups start to look more like probable wins and the probable losses at home start to look more like tossups. I think once we play MSU, we will have a very good grasp on what to expect from this team in the rest of Big10 play and we might be able to upgrade to 9-3, which would be pretty kick ass.

Not a Blue Fan

September 14th, 2010 at 1:06 PM ^

...our defense continues to hold teams to 24 points or less...

Yeah, and if Terrelle Pryor learns to throw short and mid-range passes tOSU will score 100 points per game. How about the two of us shit in one hand and hope in the other, and see which fills up first. No offense intended, but this seems highly unlikely to happen with conference play on the horizon (although, fortunately Juice Williams has graduated).

Gene

September 14th, 2010 at 1:13 PM ^

A lot of B10 teams have not been thus far, how do you say, offensive juggernaughts. It doesn't matter how many the opposition scores on the losses, they still only count as 1 loss. No one's predicting running the table, so yes, there will be a number of times opponents will score alot. So what?

Not a Blue Fan

September 14th, 2010 at 1:42 PM ^

Your secondary consists of 6 guys and a handful of fiddlefaddle. It's not going to take an offensive juggernaut to score a lot of points on that defense. Meanwhile, Michigan ranks 8th in the conference in scoring offense (although, to be fair, that number reflects opposition that is a far cry better than most of the conference has faced).

BraveWolverine730

September 14th, 2010 at 3:30 PM ^

Are you seriously suggesting that Michigan's offense is the 8th best in the conference?  Back in 08 at Purdue, Michigan scored 42(I think one TD might have been a return so 35 in that case) points with about 300 yards of offense. That was not a better offensive performance than the either of the first two games.  You're blatantly misrepresenting stats and brush it off with a half-sincere disclaimer about relative strength of competition.  Denard Robinson outgained every other team from the AP top 25 last week. I guess that doesn't count as being an offensive juggernaut.

BraveWolverine730

September 14th, 2010 at 4:19 PM ^

I'm confused where I said that Michigan was "close" to something.   If Michigan needs an offensive juggernaut to win with this defense then they have been since they won or Michigan's defense is good enough such that an offensive juggernaut is not needed to win against UConn or ND level teams.  Now the jury is still out on those teams, but I think they are probably mid-level Big Ten teams so Michigan should beat Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana with no problem, have an excellent shot at MSU at home(like last year I think it's a tossup where home field advantage decides it) and have a puncher's shot at knocking off one of the other teams for the 9 wins the one guy describes.  Personally I think we'll beat Iowa and slip up against someone we should beat and get to 8 wins.

msoccer10

September 14th, 2010 at 5:31 PM ^

This is pretty much the scenario I expected in the spring. I downgraded my prediction from 9-3 to 7-5 with Woolfolk out, but was expecting us to lose to Notre Dame. We should handle the next two out of conference opponents and then beat Illinois and Purdue. I am worried that the Indiana offense is good enough to put up some serious points on our team and that could be the surprise loss. I also wouldn't be surprised if we lost to MSU, but I am prediciting win. I feel we will win one of Iowa or Penn State, but both are certainly doable. The thing I expect sadly, is that we will be 8-2 or 9-1 going into the final two weeks of the season, lose two in a row and then the collective feeling of college football fans in general is that we collapsed when the reality is just that the best two teams on our schedule happen to be the last two we play. (I think Iowa is way overated)

Not a Blue Fan

September 14th, 2010 at 9:17 PM ^

I'm not suggesting anything of the kind. I'm saying that Michigan has the 8th best scoring offense. Putting up huge yardage and scoring lots of points are correlated, but they aren't necessarily the same thing. You guys have struggled to score (which is, frankly, surreal all other things being considered). That's all that I'm saying: if you give up a lot of points, you had better score a lot of points. So far, that hasn't happened. I don't think there's anything disingenuous about that statement.

BraveWolverine730

September 14th, 2010 at 12:18 PM ^

I have to say that the Big Ten team that has impressed me most so far is Iowa. I pretty much expected the OSU-Miami result so they stay about where  I thought they were(#2 national championship contenders).  Iowa,. on the other hand, after hearing all the criticism about not putting away cupcakes last year has started the season on a tear. Iowa state might suck, but beating them by 32 is still good.  Naturally, Iowa still has to beat Arizona to get themselves into serious national championship consideration, but I thought that was  a likely Arizona win before the season and now I see Iowa as probably winning that game. 

WildcatBlue

September 14th, 2010 at 12:21 PM ^

NU is in the midst of its annual September mystifying rough patch, but unlike past years (Syracuse '09) they found a way to win despite a clunker performance.  Ask Badgers or Hawkeyes how sucky that team turned out.  Then there's this:  (and remember that Persa played only the first half vs Illinois State)

CincyBlue

September 14th, 2010 at 12:23 PM ^

This weekend in Madison.  The last time Threet played Wisky, Michigan upset them in the Big House.   Badgers are looking for some payback! Threet looking to break another long run down the sideline. 

Michigan4Life

September 14th, 2010 at 12:29 PM ^

see Michigan going 10-0 before the Wisconsin game.  Every Big Ten games are winnable for Michigan.  MSU is a medicore team, Iowa lost a few of the good players on the team(Michigan probably should've won if it weren't for turnovers) and PSU offense struggled big time.  If Michigan can continue to progress and take care of the ball, 10-0 isn't out of the reach.

bdneely4

September 14th, 2010 at 8:07 PM ^

our offense is not really comparable to Georgia Tech's offense.  We both do have running quarterbacks, but our offense is a spread compared to Georgia Tech's which is more of a wishbone.  Pryor is (should be) considered a running quarterback, so did they eat him up last year?  I am not saying we are going to beat Iowa this year, but I do not think your argument is a very strong one.

GO BLUE!

jamiemac

September 14th, 2010 at 12:39 PM ^

This will be an interesting weekend. Very intrigued to see how Wisco, MSU and Iowa does against what will be big steps up in competition.

ASU +14 at Wisco......Threet is 1-0 after all vs Wisco. Who doesnt want to see those offensive weapons go against something other than WAC and MWC tomato cans?

ND +3.5 at MSU......this game was a pick 'em over the summer. Not sure what the betting public sees in thinking that now all of sudden MSU has to -3.5 to get even action. Then again, I thought all summer that I would eb MSU in this one, but now I think the Irish win. Kelly > Dantonio

Iowa -2 at Arizona.....O/U on the number of MGoPosters who will bury me once Iowa loses? Iowa is 17-3-1 ATS the last 3 years as an underdog or chalk of less than a TD. Arizona is 13-4 ATS at home during the same time frame. Uh, something has to give cliche goes here. Should be a GREAT game. One of the best in September. It starts at 10:30. Brew coffee.

(note, other than my statements on the ND/MSU game do not construe these as picks or even leans. I just listed the road team first)

bronxblue

September 14th, 2010 at 2:55 PM ^

I agree about ASU-Wiscy.  I think the Badgers win, but it will be quite a bit closer than it may look on paper.  As for ND-MSU, I actually think MSU will win going away, if for no other reason than the fact that MSU will just pound the ball against that ND line all day and who knows how ND will play after this gut punch of a loss.  Unlike last year when ND can point to a last-second loss as bad luck, UM just rammed the ball down their throats on that last drive on the ground and in the air, and they could not stop them.  Plus, QB play is still a major question for ND, and I don't think Allen will be able to do much against the Spartan LBs. 

bronxblue

September 14th, 2010 at 1:26 PM ^

Purdue and Illinois look immensely beatable, and that was before the past two weeks.

OSU and Wiscy look like the class of the Big 10, and Iowa looks like last year was not a blip.  I do think Pryor's inconsistent performance as a passer will cost them a game, but that defense is just as dominant as ever.

PSU will probably still win 7-8 games this year, but unless Bolden matures at an incredible rate in the coming weeks I like UM's chances.

Blue in Seattle

September 14th, 2010 at 1:39 PM ^

I like seeing the results from around the conference, plus a little spin put in.

But every year Michigan is a team's biggest game, and it gets bigger the larger the hype/success.

Which means, no matter what Big Ten teams do against other opponents, they will be bringing their best game to Michigan.

In some ways I hope MSU demolishes ND, but in other ways I want ND to perform well the rest of the year against people who are Not Michigan.

Mostly I'm hoping the defense crushes UMass.  That would bring a lot of street cred to this team.

Overall I'm just happy to have the chance to see another Saturday.

BlueGoM

September 14th, 2010 at 1:53 PM ^

Out of curiosity I watched most of the Minn v SD game.   Min. came out flat and had to play catchup, while SD was fired up nearly the whole game.   Also Minnesota's secondary played poorly.  Really poorly.   Minnesota controlled the SD run game (except a few long QB runs ) but couldn't stop the SD passing (~350 yds) at all.

It looked like Minnesota could have pounded the ball on the ground easily if they wanted to, but they kept falling behind and had to start throwing.

The doomsayers on the Minn. boards are probably right.  If they play like they did against SD, they're in for a long season.

I remember being suprised, shocked really, when Minnesota fired Glenn Mason.  I bet they're regretting that decision.

snowcrash

September 14th, 2010 at 2:03 PM ^

When a coach has a team performing close to its realistic ceiling for a long time, they will grow impatient with him for not being able to take the team to the "next level". Some Cal fans even want to fire Jeff Tedford, who has only had 8 straight winning seasons at a place where winning seasons had been few and far between. Anyway, Mason was winning as much as anyone could be expected to win at Minnesota.

jg2112

September 14th, 2010 at 2:16 PM ^

Your last sentence is patently false.

Mason had a legendarily bad reputation amongst Minnesota high school coaches (I live in Minnesota, am a Gopher alum, and have talked to HS coaches who hate/hated Mason), and he stopped working hard in recruiting after he was passed over for the Ohio State job.

You'll learn why Minnesota can be a good team if the Gophers dump Brewster and hire Mike Leach. The facilities are new and top notch and the level of recruiting is improved.

BlueGoM

September 14th, 2010 at 2:25 PM ^

Or snowcrash - about the "last sentence is false"?

Anyway I had no idea about Mason's bad rep w/ HS coaches.   I was surprised based on the fact that he was at least moderately successful, seemed like he couldn't get past the OSU/PSU/Michigan hurdle but was fielding solid teams, sending some guys to the pros (was getting some talent), etc.

Also Brewster's results have been less than impressive.  Hence I assumed Minn. fans were missing Mason.