Big Ten Recruiting Update: Rutgers! Purdue! Comment Count

Ace



Texas A&M's loss was Ohio State's gain.

It's time for our monthly check-in on Big Ten recruiting. While Ohio State and Michigan held steady at the top of the rankings, there's been plenty of movement below them. Here's where the rankings stood at the end of May:

1. Ohio State

2. Michigan

3. Iowa

4. Northwestern

5. Maryland

6. Nebraska

7. Wisconsin

8. Penn State

9. Rutgers

10. Michigan State

11. Minnesota

12. Illinois

13. Indiana

14. Purdue

Here's how they rank now, courtesy of 247:

Yes, Rutgers is on a tear, adding nine commits since the last update.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the post.]

I had four tiers last time around, but by now there's three clear tiers: Michigan and OSU at the top, a big pack in the middle, and a group of four lagging well behind the rest.

The Big Two, Still

Ohio State had been in a holding pattern since March after racing out to a huge lead in the national team rankings. They still hold that top spot after gaining two huge commitments in June: five-star CA OG Wyatt Davis and top-ranked dual-threat QB Tate Martell. Martell's May decommitment from Texas A&M caused a Twitter meltdown from their WRs coach, which in turn caused more decommitments from A&M. I'm sure he'll encounter nothing of the sort in Columbus.

The Buckeyes did lose a four-star in OH RB Todd Sibley, but that was expected; they'd already told Sibley he'd have to grayshirt, and after months of taking visits he finally flipped to Pitt.

With five commits since the last update, Michigan has moved up from ninth to fourth overall in the national team rankings, closing the distance a little on OSU. The Buckeyes are still well ahead despite having four fewer commits—the gap between OSU and Michigan is nearly as large as the gap between Michigan and Rutgers. While Michigan might eventually catch OSU based on sheer volume—the Buckeyes project to have a smaller class—it's going to be tough to match their quality; the only OSU commit outside the top 300 overall is the top-ranked kicker in the country.

The Second Tier: Rutgers Makes A Move

No program's class changed more over the last month than Rutgers, which picked up nine commits, including four-star MD OLB Tyshon Fogg. None of their other commits this month rank in the top 800 overall on the 247 Composite, however, and their 19 total commits is tied for second-most nationally (Western Michigan has 22). As other teams fill out their classes, RU is going to slide down from their current perch at #15 nationally.

Iowa slipped from 11th to 17th after spending June filling out the bottom end of the class. The Hawkeyes picked up six commits, all ranked below 850th overall, and lost behemoth three-star DT Juan Harris, who has now committed and decommitted from his home-state school three times.

Continuing the theme, Northwestern picked up three low-to-mid three-star commits and a two-star kicker; they remain one spot behind the Hawkeyes in the national rankings. With 17 early commits, none ranked in the top 350, the Wildcats will move down as other teams round out their classes.

Nebraska slipped in front of Maryland after picking up commitments from three-star prospects OG Broc Bando and DE Robert Porcher IV, the latter of whom held a Michigan offer, though probably not a committable one after the additions of Corey Malone-Hatcher and Luiji Vilain. 

Michigan State no longer ranks behind any directional Michigan schools, which was fun while it lasted. They added five three-star commits this month, and while none ranks higher than 625th overall, there's potential for some to leap up the rankings: the lowest-rated of the bunch, FL DE Donovan Winter, added a Michigan offer after the Fort Lauderdale satellite camp. (M subsequently landed Vilain and no longer needed to pursue Winter.)

Maryland added only unranked three-star WR MJ Jarrell since the last update. They're one spot behind MSU at #28 in the national rankings.

If you wanted to split this tier in two, the divide would come between Maryland and Wisconsin, which is ranked #36 overall. The Badgers have been stuck on ten commits since early May. Penn State is in a similar situation; they rank #40 overall and haven't added anyone to the class since the end of April.

The Basement: Boilers Up

The next Big Ten squad is all the way down at #74 in the rankings, but after claiming only one commit in the last update, Purdue will happily take that for now. The Boilermakers have picked up six commits over the last few weeks, headlined by the #25 pro-style QB in the country, Californian Nick Sipe.

Illinois stays at 12th in the conference, mere fractions of a point behind Purdue. Of their six total commits, two of which pledged this month, only two rank among the top 1000 (yes, one thousand) overall prospects. Minnesota ranks a couple points below the Illini after adding three players in June that all rank outside the top 1000.

That leaves Indiana, which doesn't have a commit ranked in the top 700, to bring up the rear.

Comments

huntmich

June 30th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^

I really think we need to capitalize on the Buckeye's relative weakness this year in order to help even the recruiting battle, because it isn't going to be getting any easier in the coming years.

huntmich

June 30th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^

Sure, but nothing succeeds like success.  They aren't going to stop being good at recruiting under Urban Meyer, but we are going to have to rise to that level to be able to consistently compete with them. This year is as good as it gets to take the kind of win we need to rise to their level of recruiting.

 

tl;dr: I hope we beat the buckeyes.

Blueblood2991

June 30th, 2016 at 3:37 PM ^

I think recruits can see how lucky Dantonio has been over the last few years. He's a great coach, dont get me wrong. The Rose Bowl was a good win, but the bowl wins against Baylor and Georgia took complete collapses by the other team to win. 

Heck, they almost lost to Purdue and Rutgers this year (I still laugh at the spike on 4th down)

I think Dantonio sold his soul to the devil, but after the Michigan punt he was all out of favors. The Alabama game proved that.

Roland Deschain

June 30th, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^

I can't claim to hate MSU as much as those of you who are both from and live in MI; living in CA, I just don't run into many Sparties. Having said that, with all due respect, you only get lucky so often. Although I think he's a righteous douchebag, Dantonio has done a helluva job at MSU. He's built a strong team in a rare moment of opportunity, when UM faltered after 30+ years of dominance...and - save Alabama - he's taken down OSU as well as strong teams in the Big 12, SEC, and PAC 12. That's not a fluke - he's good. Interestingly, though, his recruiting has not been very good. I chalk that up to him being an asshole and East Lansing being a dumpster. Kinda strange, though...




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wahooverine

June 30th, 2016 at 3:57 PM ^

I agree with this take. Dantonio is a dour, stick in the mud coach with a low national profile relative to his teams recent accomplishments. The lack of historical success coupled with being in East Lansing (and what out of staters probably think is the middle of nowhere) also works against him. His only sell is all the chip on the shoulder, I hate Michigan stuff, but I think that only works on in state guys, especially from areas that tend to be more Sparty. Outside the state that's not a sell. I think they sense there is a reason Sparty gets the short end of the stick in media coverage and reputation compared to Michigan and some of that amply illustrated by Dantoni himself.

stephenrjking

June 30th, 2016 at 7:39 PM ^

I hate to say this, but all three of those bowl wins are far better and far more satisfying than any bowl win Michigan has had since Carr retired. Yeah, Baylor collapsed a bit. But that happens, and MSU played well to come back. MSU has a resent history as good as any team that isn't Bama or OSU to sell. There's no way it's luck. 

Their recruiting issues (they've been getting better, FWIW, and they're still in on top guys like DPJ) are due to something else. 

BlueTimesTwo

June 30th, 2016 at 11:52 PM ^

That is an awesome typo. Frankly, resenting history is mainly what they do. They have made a nice little cottage industry out of anger, resentment, and disrespect, but they're also very fortunate that their rise coincided with Michigan's struggles.

Also, if Baylor had made any effort to continue doing what they were doing for the first half of the game in the second half, they might've scored 100. They stopped doing everything that had been working for them and just tried to run out the clock. Kudos to MSU for not quitting, but Baylor basically turtled and waited for the game to end.

saveferris

July 1st, 2016 at 2:34 PM ^

Par for the course for Dantonio and Sparty.  It's incredible for all the success that MSU has had in the past 4-5 years, how little Dantonio has been able to parlay that into any kind of recruiting success.  Of course, when your "dynasty" is built upon schedules that produced a couple of good wins while feasting upon a generationally bad conference base, this kind of incongruity emerges.

Saint_in_Blue

June 30th, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^

Ohio State needs to lock up these 4-5* guy early because of how small their class is projected to be. If they wiff on a prospect, it's a much bigger deal being a small class. Michigan is going to finish strong since they can afford to wait on some of their elite prospects. In the meantime they can fill the gaps with the 3-4* types.

goblueritzy92

June 30th, 2016 at 5:32 PM ^

Yeah, but it seems that hgher ranked recruits tend to drag their recruitments out longer than those who are lower ranked, who may commit to secure their spot.

 

Michigan is in on many highly ranked players still and I can only think of a couple lower ranked players who are expected to commit (James Hudson is the only one that I can think of). Although, those are the ones that often come out of nowhere.

 

EDIT: And even then, Hudson is #217 to 247 and #336 composite.

Lanknows

June 30th, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^

at least insofar as you are talking national titles and the top 10 classes it generally takes to win them.  The top 100 guys are the ones that determine the final recruiting rankings.  As you said - many/most of those guys decide late.

The rankings 6+ months out from signing day are not very meaningful.

 

Lanknows

June 30th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^

It should find a way to take Mathlete's chart (which starts from a comparison of top ranked guy for each team and moves successively down, leaving the bottom-of-class variance (in quantity) out of the equation.

The comparison should be for the top X guys in each program's class, where X is the smallest class in the conference (removing extreme outliers who just aren't filling out their class when necessar).  X would go up as the calendar went along.

That would stop rewarding teams just for having big classes.

stephenrjking

June 30th, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^

They're not very meaningful to us yet. But OSU already has serious talent locked down, so their ranking is no mirage. And they're still picking guys up.

Michigan still has work to do. But they are in holding the same profile as they did last season, when a hoard of 3-stars turned into a top-5 class by... well, by "process." 

Lanknows

July 1st, 2016 at 2:10 PM ^

That more accurately reflect how well OSU is doing right now.  To end up in the top 5 Michigan would have to "process" some 3-stars, as you put it.  Not sure how you capture that in the rankings...

I think it's fair to say that Michigan's recruiting class does not project to end up in the top 5 based on their current commitments.

LKLIII

June 30th, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^

"The Buckeyes did lose a four-star in OH RB Todd Sibley, but that was expected; they'd already told Sibley he'd have to grayshirt..." If that isn't an indication of how stacked their class is, I don't know what else would be. Yikes. They'll be tough to beat for the foreseeable future. However, no free grows to heaven. At some point even the great sports dynasties falter. Great coaches move on, talented locker rooms get complacent, fluke losses lead to finger pointing and loss of team morale. Part of the recent dominance by OSU (and MSU) is due to the faltering of Michigan, this making it easier to recruit kids interested in the Big Ten. The tide will turn eventually. Harbaugh's job is to make the team play as well as they possibly can, give them more than a puncher's chance against OSU, put pressure on the rivals, and then once OSU & MSU inevitably falter, go in for the kill.




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M-Dog

June 30th, 2016 at 6:58 PM ^

I'm surprised that Indiana does not do better, just on offense alone.  That seems like it would be a fun offense to play in.

I get that they are not going to get top 100 recruits, but nobody better than 700th?  

Yikes.

I didn't even know there were 700 recruits out there.

 

stephenrjking

June 30th, 2016 at 8:05 PM ^

Not clear to me what their strategy is.

At Minnesota, Tracy Klaeys got the permanent job in part by hammering the issue of the need to keep recruits in the fold; he isn't recruiting well. Of course, his predecessor didn't recruit all that well, either.

We'll see what happens. I used to get excited about how well Michigan was doing relative to the conference (and Notre Dame) when the old versions of these rankings were posted. For a couple of years OSU was really the only team in our league, and we were frequently ahead.

It didn't translate to the field. Until maybe this year, we'll see.

Perkis-Size Me

July 1st, 2016 at 8:06 AM ^

In their defense, it's extremely difficult to recruit at Minnesota. Great town, sure, but you can't reasonably expect top recruits to come and play for a school that hasn't been relevant in over half a century.

A school like Minnesota's best chance is recognizing that they will never be Michigan or OSU in recruiting. So their main priority needs to be finding real under the radar kids who perfectly fit their system, with some upside potential and then coach them up as best they can.




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uminks

June 30th, 2016 at 11:58 PM ^

Last year OSU had the number 4 class and Michigan had the number 5 class. OSU has just been winning longer and once Harbaugh is able to beat OSU, hopefully this season, we will compete with them for the top talent. Overall, Harbaugh is doing a great job recruiting and in 3 to 4 years he will have one of the most talented teams in the country.

Ecky Pting

July 2nd, 2016 at 12:25 PM ^

If M can close on most of its remaining VHT targets, it has the potential to finish with an overall class rating in the 295-300 range assuming a take of 28 total. M will benefit from a combination of quantity and quality. Over the past 10 years that score has been good for the #2 or #3 spot. The more taken, the lower the score on a per capita basis, generally. However, Harbaugh has a sense for locking in fliers early and motivating them to develop their potential before NSD, as well as persistence in pursuing the VHT's down to the wire. Meanwhile OSU is on a pace to set an all time record for class rating - nobody gonna catch'em.