Big Ten Recruiting Update: Big Two, Maryland Lurks Comment Count

Ace


Michigan is poised for a major in-state recruiting haul that could include Ambry Thomas [left, Rapai]

When 247 created the industry composite rankings, there was no longer a good reason for me to continue putting together the old Big Ten recruiting rankings posts. In the absence of those, however, I haven't done a great job of providing an overview of conference recruiting in the roundups. This new, recurring feature should rectify that issue—I plan to publish these on a monthly basis.

While it should come as little surprise that Ohio State and Michigan have separated themselves from the pack, the current rankings of the rest of the conference aren't exactly what you'd expect. Via 247, here's how the Big Ten team rankings currently stand:

[After THE JUMP, separating the conference into tiers.]

The Big Two

There's no fun way to put this: not only does Ohio State have the top-ranked 2017 class in the country, they have it by a healthy margin. 12 of their 13 commits are composite four- or five-stars; the only exception is top-ranked kicker Blake Haubeil. The Buckeyes are heavily involved with several top uncommitted prospects, including five-stars Jeffrey Okudah, Trevon Grimes, and Chase Young. Four-star RB Todd Sibley is almost guaranteed to end up elsewhere after OSU told him he'd have to grayshirt, and five-star CB Shaun Wade is looking around a bit; there's likely to be attrition from within the class. That said, it's going to be very tough for any team—Michigan included—to overcome OSU's lead.

You are, in all likelihood, quite familiar with Michigan's class, which currently ranks ninth in the country. If Jim Harbaugh closes as expected, they're likely to be in the top-five range by Signing Day.

The Second Tier


Five-star DE Josh Kaindoh was a huge pickup for DJ Durkin.

There's a gap between OSU and Michigan, and then another one between Michigan and Iowa—while the Hawkeyes are only two spots behind the Wolverines in the national rankings, there's a healthy 25-point separation in their 247 Composite score. Iowa, Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, and Wisconsin currently form the second tier, one that's certain to change as a couple notable omissions fill out their classes.

Iowa looks likely to fall back to the pack. They got two big-time early commits, one a legacy in five-star IL DE AJ Epenesa, the other a surprising pickup in four-star TX RB Eno Benjamin. Six of their other eight commits are three-star in-state prospects and they're not among the favorites for other blue-chippers. This will still be a solid class for them if they hold onto Epenesa and Benjamin.

Northwestern is 12th nationally, one spot behind Iowa, due to sheer strength in numbers: they have 13 commits, but not a single four-star among them. Pat Fitzgerald has found success targeting Texas recruits the high-end Big 12 schools aren't heavily pursuing; Northwestern has five Texans in the class, more than any other state.

The hire of DJ Durkin has paid off on the recruiting trail for Maryland, ranked 15th nationally. If a Big Ten program is going to challenge the top two, it'll be Maryland, as Durkin is doing an excellent job of keeping DMV-area talent close to home. Five-star DE Josh Kaindoh, a DC transplant playing for IMG Academy, was a massive pickup in that regard, and the Terps are hanging right with OSU in the race for five-star MD DE Chase Young.

Mike Riley has pulled in nine commits from eight different states for Nebraska (17th nationally), including the sixth-ranked pro-style QB in Californian Tristan Gebbia. The Huskers are among the favorites for two top-tier California cornerbacks, five-star Darnay Holmes and four-star Deommodore "Clamp Clampington" Lenoir. Landing either would be a coup.

Five of Wisconsin's ten commits are in-state prospects, and it should come as little surprise that both of their four-star pledges are offensive linemen. The Badgers rank one spot behind the Huskers in the national team rankings, but Nebraska has a better shot at landing the top-end prospects to keep them in the top 20.

The Third Tier


Sooooooooo.

While Penn State only has eight commits and only ranks 21st in the country at the moment, they're going to surpass several of the teams listed above before the end of the cycle. There are already four four-stars in the class and James Franklin has PSU among the favorites for five-star APB De'Andre Swift, four-star OG Robert Hainsey, four-star OLB Nathan Proctor, and four-star TE Matt Dotson, to name a few.

After Chris Ash managed to convince a few top New Jersey recruits to stay in the state, at least for now, Rutgers comes up next in the rankings. Four-star NJ OT Micah Clark is the jewel of the class; if Rutgers falters during the season, which would come as little surprise, several other programs (Michigan potentially included) will try to pluck him from Ash's grasp.

At long last, we've reached Michigan State, which sits one spot behind Central Michigan at #31 in the team rankings—so far, their playoff appearance isn't paying off on the recruiting trail. Now that KJ Hamler has his much-coveted Oregon offer, legacy Hunter Rison could be the only prospect standing between MSU and a shutout among the top ten in-state players. Of the uncommitted players on that list, only Hamler and Deron Irving-Bey look like decent bets to end up in East Lansing; Oregon may have jumped into the lead for the former, while Michigan has picked up its pursuit of the latter.

The Basement

There's a veritable gulf between the Spartans and the rest of the Big Ten. MSU has eight commits and ranks 31st overall; Minnesota is next at #65 with three commits. Given the uncertainty surrounding the coaching staff after Jerry Kill's departure, it's hardly a surprise the Gophers are struggling to land recruits.

Given the hope that Lovie Smith would jump-start recruiting because of his NFL success, Illinois' class can only be categorized as a major disappointment. They also have three commits, only one ranked in the top 850 overall prospects, and they hardly have any Crystal Ball predictions in for three-star recruits—the lone four-star they had picks for, guard Kevin Jarvis, is committed to MSU.

Indiana follows with three three-star commits all ranked below 800th overall. That still puts them well ahead of Purdue, which has been stuck on one commit: low three-star dual-threat QB Griffin Alstott, son of Boilermakers legend Mike Alstott.

Comments

BlueCube

May 26th, 2016 at 5:38 PM ^

committed before Michigan had played a down of football under Harbaugh. One other was a month into Michigan's season and therefore before things started to click.

Meyer has taken advantage as he should but I'll be shocked to see them do this  again with Harbaugh so close. I have no doubt they will have great classes but they will have to work a lot harder to get there..

Ace didn't mention that MSU is well back from Western Michigan and currently 4th in the state of Michigan.

unWavering

May 26th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^

Is it just me, or is there not enough of a gap to justify putting Michigan ahead of tier 2? Also, I really hate this whole Urban Meyer at OSU thing so far.

oriental andrew

May 27th, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^

It's like boarding a plane these days. You board with the super-fancy people first, who are not even part of an official boarding group. Global Services with United, for example, and ohio state in the Big Ten.

Then you get to Group 1. 1K and Platinum and First/Business Class for United, Michigan for the Big Ten.

Then Group 2. Silver, Gold, and Credit Card holders for United; Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland for the Big Ten (right now).

Then Group 3. Rutgers and michigan state in the Big Ten, currently.

Then Group 4. Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, currently.

Then Group 5. Last to board and definitely no overhead bin space, forcing them to wait around the jet bridge for their bags while everyone else is on their merry way. Poor damn Purdue. 

wile_e8

May 26th, 2016 at 4:29 PM ^

Ohio St. just throws everything off in that chart because they are currently way ahead of everyone nationally. But if you look at the national ranks, Michigan is closer to #3 LSU than #11 Iowa. Also, Michigan is likely to land quite a few high ranking recruits between now and signing day, while Iowa and the rest of Tier 2 are unlikely to land many. So even though that chart makes it look like Michigan is close to the rest of Tier 2 at this time, the tea leaves are pointing to the final results looking like last year with OSU and Michigan well ahead of the pack in the B1G.

JayMo4

May 26th, 2016 at 6:51 PM ^

I've heard a couple of the recruiting analysts suggest some of our lower rated commits are likely to rise during the season as well... Probably a couple 3* in there at the moment that will be 4* before it's said and done.

Based on the guys we're in on, it looks like we should expect a very good class so long as this season goes well (and I think it will.)  It's just frustrating to see OSU cleaning up.  But then, one win in Columbus in a few months would make all that frustration evaporate pretty fast.

TrueBlue2003

May 26th, 2016 at 7:47 PM ^

It is a Big 1, and then a middle tier of 9, including us.  OSU is 70+ points clear of us, which is more (!!) than we are clear of MSU at 10th place.  And MSU would catch us with just one more five star, one more four star and two more three stars.  We'd basically have to sign only five and four stars the rest of the way to have as many of those as OSU.

Ugh.

oriental andrew

May 27th, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^

It's ohio state far and away #1

Michigan at a distant, but clear, #2

A whole bunch of decent to good teams with average to above average recruiting (Iowa, Wisco, msu, maryland somehow, State Penn, Northwestern, Nebraska)

Then the dregs (Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers)

TrueBlue2003

May 27th, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^

What does "from a purely recruiting perspective" mean?  I'm looking at the recruiting commitments presented in this post, which seems as pure as it gets, and Michigan does not belong in a separate tier, by any clustering methodology that would put the next eight in the same tier.  Michigan is only 25 points clear of Iowa, mostly by virtue of having two more commitments.

If you're arguing that Michigan is in on a bunch of other top guys and is likely to be separated much further by signing day, that may be true. Maybe that would be better described as a "projected" recruiting perspective.

Double-D

May 26th, 2016 at 10:05 PM ^

being better off for it. I expect we will close the gap quickly if we can win in Columbus. I think MSUs blowout loss to Bama may have hurt their image with recruits. The view is MSU hit their ceiling and it's not enough to compete for an NC. A few bad breaks and they could have a 5-6 loss season this year and maybe start the slide.

da_M_wolf_gangster

May 27th, 2016 at 9:12 AM ^

Even when he was still at FL I didn't care for him. As soon as he took the OHIO job I knew it was a wrap, he's a good recruiter, a good football coach and a terrible person. I regularly internally characterize him as the devil. I set the scene of him in the living room of a consensus 5-star where he talks about dreams of NFL stardom, gold pants and a national championship run. Then he looks the recruit square in the eye and says “ALL IT WILL COST YOU, IS YOUR SOUL!!!!! Ha ha ha ha” then the horns go back in his head and the fire and brimstone behind him ceases.

Maizen

May 26th, 2016 at 4:20 PM ^

OSU class is almost at capacity. They have limited space this year. I'll be shocked if Michigan's class of 28-30 isn't ranked higher than theirs on signing day.

Mr Miggle

May 26th, 2016 at 4:35 PM ^

In fact, I think it's also impossible to catch them. OSU only has 13 commits and they had a slew of players declare early. Was it nine of them? They must have a lot of room left in this class. And as we've seen, the number of spots often goes up as we head to signing day.

TrueBlue2003

May 27th, 2016 at 4:20 PM ^

but catching up to them in "points" just because our class is twice as large is not a recruiting win.  When 2/3 of our class is three star (currently, hopefully not on signing day) and NONE of their non-kicker commitments are that low, it's a bad thing.

Yes, class size is indicative of positive performance for that class, but not necessarily for the team long term since the scholly limits make class sizes a zero-sum game (unless you're willing to pull schollies).  Large classes in one year mean smaller classes in other years, which is in large part how you get merely the cyclical success cycles that we've experienced in the past 5-7 years.

If you're filling all or most available spots with four and five stars, it's much better in the long run than filling half of a larger class with three stars.

turd ferguson

May 26th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^

It'd be interesting to see one of those tables you guys used to do with each Michigan prospect's star rating from each service (like this).  Doing it for every Big Ten school seems like an unnecessary amount of work with the 247 composite class rankings available, but there's some information in those tables that's hard to pick up from the composite rankings.

newtopos

May 26th, 2016 at 4:30 PM ^

Hopefully our numbers will change significantly, but as of now, it's hard to put us together with OSU.  Their class is obscene.  The good news is MSU's recent recruiting success (trending upward the last couple years) might be tapering off.  And of course, our class should still end up in the top 10, which is nothing to be disappointed about.  Perhaps more important is shoring up specific position groups (e.g., OL).

Ace

May 26th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

...Ohio State is currently in a tier of their own. For simplicity's sake, I lumped them in with Michigan—those two are well clear of the pack and that gap should only get bigger.

Gentleman Squirrels

May 26th, 2016 at 4:35 PM ^

How likely is it that AJ Epenesa decommits? I remember him being interested in Michigan before making a surprise commitment to Iowa. Also I would love to get Deron Irving-Bey or maybe get more into the recruitment of Chase Young

lilpenny1316

May 26th, 2016 at 4:39 PM ^

Based on the camp performances of our 3-star guys (Dillon, Samuels, St-Juste), it's possible that we could shrink the gap with OSU based on late-summer, post-camp ranking adjustments.  This is all a snapshot in time, and still a promising one considering who we still have on the board like DPJ, Nico Collins and the OL recruits.

Mr Miggle

May 26th, 2016 at 8:48 PM ^

But OSU is reportedly pushing out a couple of 4*s for guys they like more. Their class is going to get better. We could end up top 5 and still be way behind OSU. Let's just hope Meyer can't do that again. It's not as if he's just beating us out for recruits. I'm not sure if we were even serious contenders for any of their commits other than Simmons.

Ghost of Hoke

May 26th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

OSU will end up with the highest ranked class ever. Michigan has to meet, preferably exceed expectations this year. So they're able to keep up in the jimmy and joes race.



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mlax27

May 26th, 2016 at 5:00 PM ^

Didn't Urban Meyer have the best class ever at Florida the year before he left?  Like 15 five stars or something?  If I remember correctly, they actually produced some pretty terrible on field results, so maybe not such a big deal. 

FatGuyTouchdown

May 26th, 2016 at 5:14 PM ^

I fucking hate Ohio State. I'm 20 years old, and they've been the only program that's been consistently good my entire life. Stop it. I only remember beating Ohio State twice. 2 times. thats it. (Not counting victories when I was a small child).

True Blue Grit

May 26th, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^

since the mid-70's and it goes in cycles.  For a long time, it was back and forth every year.  Then, when John Cooper was their coach, Michigan had their way with them for a long time.  Tressel took over and things didn't go well during the latter Carr years.   We f-ed ourselves with the last two coaching hires and it will take a little longer to fix.  But Harbaugh will bring this series back to at least even year after year.  And maybe better than that when Meyer whines and decides to quit again.  So, keep the faith.   

FatGuyTouchdown

May 26th, 2016 at 5:42 PM ^

I know we're going to even it up. It's just going to be a very awkward feeling when we beat a good Ohio State team. The best thing about Harbaugh is I no longer believe Ohio State has better coaches than us. Don't get me wrong, Meyer is an incredible coach, but I think Harbaugh is pretty even with him. Now I just need to hope Tom Herman gets the Texas job before the Ohio State opening comes open....