Big Ten Expansion: Grid Of Judgment Comment Count

Brian

The Crimson Quarry has an excellent post running down candidates in detail that sections of this post are derived from.

The Fringe

Schools that have been brought up at one time or another but are not worth a fuller discussion for various reasons.

Schools that would say no

Texas. Blame those Texas newspaper articles describing UT's flirtation with the Big Ten after the SWC exploded, but Texas comes up whenever this topic does. Despite the travel involved the Big Ten would do that in a heartbeat; Texas is a fantastic school that opens up copious television markets and is a national power in both football and basketball.

Texas would not, though. They are the master and commander of an entire conference with weak revenue sharing relative to the Big Ten. They have longstanding rivalries with virtually everyone in the Big 12 South. And their nationally competitive baseball program would be badly hurt by joining what's basically a mid-major conference.

Nebraska. Massive football tradition and geographically somewhat feasible but there's no way the Cornhuskers would give up a 100 years of rivalries for the Big Ten. Have no links to anyone in the conference.

Notre Dame. If the Big Ten is doing this when Notre Dame's NBC contract has six years to run, the Irish are not in the mix.

Schools that don't offer enough

Iowa State. Why on earth would anyone want Iowa State in their conference? No TV market and no success in either major sport. If Iowa doesn't want them, and I'm sure they don't, why would anyone else?

West Virginia. Tier III institution would probably get rejected by the presidents. Good programs in football and basketball but brings zero recruiting base and zero television market. If the only considerations were on-field performance they'd be the obvious #1 choice but all their peripherals are poor.

Cincinnati. Legitimate traditional basketball power (two national titles in the 60s to go with the Huggins era) and nouveau riche football school, but probably destined for a major drop with Brian Kelly out the door. Academically, a non-starter: it's a tier III commuter school.

Louisville. Geographically and athletically plausible but a tier III institution.

Prime Candidates

Rutgers. Hypothetically brings New Jersey and New York markets into play, except few really care about Rutgers when they're not good and they've rarely been good. Very rarely. Basketball program a nonentity; football was a nationwide punchline until the arrival of Greg Schiano, at which point they've had one standout year and a bunch of middling ones that end in nondescript bowl games.

mizzou-logo

Missouri. Geographically adjacent and has longstanding, if on-and-off, rivalry with Illinois. Good, not great, state school that would be the worst-ranked school in the league but not by much, especially after a post-CIC bump. Brings a new, large TV market into play. Also brings Don Draper with it.

Negatives: neither football or basketball is the sort of program that brings any wow factor, though the football program is a solid and developing one under Gary Pinkel. And Mizzou has been in the Big 8/12 since its inception. Fevered rivalry with Kansas and the sort of non-rivalry with Nebraska that saw Mizzou on the end of dozens of heinous beatings to the point where if Pinkel hadn't run up the score in the final year of Callahan he would have taken he would have taken heat for it.

Would Mizzou go? I mentioned them on the radio yesterday, at which point someone who grew up in the area called in to cast doubt on the possibility the Tigers would even consider leaving the Big 12. He certainly knows better than I do. On the other hand, some Mizzou folks have started a pro-Big Ten blog and the Rock M Nation thread discussing BHGP's discussion of a potential move is split down the middle. The local paper's Mizzou beatwriter, however, is adamant:

RT @Kevin_Baum What's your take on mizzou's chances of joining the big 10? ... To quote Dean Wormer, Zero Point Zero

I don't know. I expect that Mizzou would at least flirt with the Big Ten in an effort to get the Big 12's revenue sharing increased.

Pitt_mediumPitt. Obvious natural rivalry with Penn State that makes the Nittany Lions less of an odd duck in the league both geographically and culturally. Brings another TV market, though Pittsburgh is an area that already gets the BTN. Rich tradition in football and has been intermittently decent over the last decade; basketball program has recently built itself into a national power but has little in the way of history.

Scholastically Pitt would be an average Big Ten team, which is very strong relative to other serious candidates. And there's no question whether they would jump or not: Pitt would kill to get in the Big Ten. They'd get to play Penn State, they'd get a ton more football revenue, the basketball would be fine, and they could play WVU out of conference.

Negatives: they play in a sterile NFL stadium that's usually half-empty, though a Big Ten fan with road-trip inclinations could view that as a positive. And adding Mizzou or Syracuse or whatever puts another state in the BTN footprint; Pittsburgh doesn't. And you could see this hurting Big Ten schools' Pittsburgh-area recruiting. Now players in the area can pick between the Big Ten or staying close to home; in the future they can have both.

Syracuse. Geographically somewhat awkward; football program has totally imploded since Paul Pasqualoni fell off. On the other hand, an excellent school (almost exactly on par with Pitt) with a powerhouse basketball program. Their location is a blessing and a curse: it's far away but also makes the Big Ten considerably more important in New York (state, not City).

Syracuse might like it in the Big East enough to shoot down an overture, though. They're decidedly more eastern than a lot of Big East schools.

Chart?

Grid! Grid of judgment!

A legend: teams are graded on a 3 point scale, where 0 is uncatchable a factor so poor it disqualifies the program in question, 1 is is an active detriment, 2 is "meh", and 3 is a positive. The "average" column does not include "willingness," since it's an attempt to judge the attractiveness of the teams only.

"Other sports" rankings derived from Director's Cup standings.

School Willingness Academics FB BB Other Loc Market Footprint Avg.
Texas 0 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 2.7
Nebraska 0 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1.4
Notre Dame 0 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2.9
Maryland 1 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 2.0
Iowa State 3 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0.7
West Virginia 3 0 3 3 2 3 0 1 1.7
Cincinnati 3 0 2 3 1 3 1 1 1.6
Louisville 3 0 1 3 2 3 2 3 2.0
Rutgers 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 1.7
Syracuse 2 3 1 3 1 1 2 2 1.9
Pitt 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 2.3
Missouri 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 3 2.3

Your winners amongst the even distantly feasible: Pitt and Missouri, and Missouri is only distantly feasible. Both are clearly poor options relative to Notre Dame, but that ain't happening. Your projected 12th Big Ten school: Pitt.

Comments

Section 1

December 15th, 2009 at 4:36 PM ^

Hence, the Big Ten now has a basketball tournament.

I sort of understand the Pre-FBS playoff aspect.

What I don't understand is why not wait until the end of the NBC-ND contract, and then do the inevitable?

I don't know; it sometimes seems like blog commenters are like newspaper columnists, full of glib answers to things they haven't had to think about, seriously.
Everybody hates the BCS; everybody wants a college football playoff. But what does that do to the 34 bowl games? What does it do to college football regular seasons? What does it do to college football Saturdays, and Saturdays before Labor Day and after Thanksgiving? What does it do to the Michigan-Ohio State game?

If there is, someday, an 8-team college football playoff and an 11-1 Michigan team that beat OSU in November, but lost to Illinois in a championship game is 9th, how will fans feel?

I don't want a "Junior NFL." I prefer college football.

zlionsfan

December 15th, 2009 at 4:56 PM ^

Most bowl games would stay; others would be part of the playoffs.

The regular season might get a week shorter or might not.

Saturdays are mostly the same; games after Thanksgiving might move up simply because teams don't have to be so visible.

UM-OSU ... several options, most likely being same division to protect the rivalry across all sports.

If it's an 8-team playoff, then in your scenario, we should be angry that we blew a playoff spot. We should have won the conference. (But your scenario is partly why I think it will be 16 teams eventually.)

U of M in TX

December 16th, 2009 at 8:16 AM ^

The regular season doesn't even matter now. You have 5 undefeated teams, 3 of which are from major conferences, and everyone knew that if Texas and Florida/Alabama went undefeated, they would be playing for the National Championship. How does that make the regular season relavent? It really only makes it relavent for 2 teams. At least with a playoff system, a team like Cincinatti has a chance.

M-Wolverine

December 16th, 2009 at 9:06 AM ^

It remains relevant because almost every year a team like Cincinnati would be playing. It's rare that you have this many teams go undefeated. How many times have there been conference championship games with two undefeated teams? And it happens in the toughest conference?? Not a regular occurrence. And frankly, the other 2 teams don't really matter till they can get in a better conference and up their schedule. There could have been 1 loss teams that probably would have gotten into the championship game before them. (Anyone doubt that if U-C wasn't there, they would have made sure Florida was ranked ahead of TCU and Boise?).

And in any regard, teams still need to be that good to get into a BCS bowl game. Something to shoot for. A 16 team playoff is going to have above average teams in the playoff. You can do so-so, and make the playoff. This year such 9-3 "powers" such as Virginia Tech, LSU, Miami, and West Virginia would make it, as well as two loss PSU, BYU and Iowa (at least Oregon, OSU and GT won their conferences). And why is Pitt at 9-3 also left out....? Some of those teams were at least playing for a big time bowl bid, not a first round drubbing.

stmccoy

December 15th, 2009 at 4:39 PM ^

Soonest the Big Ten would be able to admit a 12th team would be 2015 when the current BCS contract expires. By that point the ND TV contract is winding down if not extended. Economically, it no longer makes sense for Notre Dame to stay independent. The revenues they will gain from joining the Big Ten are greater than those from remaining independent.

FrankMurphy

December 15th, 2009 at 4:51 PM ^

Agreed. I'd go even further and say that I think this whole thing is an ambitious move by Delaney to goad Notre Dame into talking. The Irish can't stay independent forever, and no other conference makes financial or academic sense for Notre Dame (and no, not the Big East; for all their piety, I'm pretty sure the holy men would prefer being the only parochial school in a financial juggernaut conference than surrounded by other Catholic schools in a league that can barely pay its own bills). I don't think Delaney seriously intends to add another school if he can't get Notre Dame; no one else fits.

Also, the Big Ten might be open to allowing Notre Dame to keep its deal with NBC in some form (sort of how the Rose Bowl gets to have its own deal with ABC). After all, NBC only broadcasts 6 of Notre Dame's games a year.

CRex

December 15th, 2009 at 5:03 PM ^

I feel like Notre Dame would go for the Big East before Big Ten. Notre Dame likes money and they like winning. Given Brian Kelly is gone from Cincy, WVU is kind of 'enh' under Stewart (and really has no tradition of football excellence) and say the Big Ten snags Pitt that leaves the Big East as kind of weak under football. Notre Dame can move in, establish itself as king of the castle, al la Texas in the Big 12 with weak revenue sharing and then Notre Dame does its best to get the Big East BCS bid every year and as much of the conference revenue as it can pillage. So they money and wins.

If they come to the Big 10 they get the money, but they also have to play a lot of football schools with long traditions of disliking Notre Dame and a commitment to beating the Irish.

stmccoy

December 15th, 2009 at 5:13 PM ^

There is way more money to be had in the Big Ten. The Big Ten pools its revenue from bowl games and distributes it evenly amongst the schools in the conference. This is an important point given that the Big Ten has had 2 teams in BCS bowl games in 9 of the 12 years since the BCS inception. Each school also has an equity stake in the 51% of te Big Ten network not owned by News Corp. Notre Dame stands to gain much more in the way of revenues from the Big Ten then the Big East. Big Ten also has media deals with ABC/ESPN as well.

NHWolverine

December 15th, 2009 at 4:44 PM ^

By my count much of the discussion about finalizing the team the Big Ten offers, negotiating contracts, structuring divisions, and the real "meat" of the expansion are going to be headed by our new AD (I'm assuming this isn't a University President ordeal -- could be wrong here). This could provide a little additional wrinkle in our AD search as well as giving responsibilities to someone who can drastically shape how our rivalries are played out in the new Big Ten. All the more reason to bring in someone who understands Michigan tradition very, very well.

CRex

December 15th, 2009 at 4:45 PM ^

First off, do we need another "football school" in the sense we need another good team. Or do we just need an other warm body we can thrown in a division, thus creating two six team divisions and a conference championship game at the end of the year. With Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan (hopefully soon), tOSU and PSU we have assurances that we should be able to roll at least two quality ranked football schools into a conference championship and get us some ratings and hype. Our new member could in theory hang out down there with Indiana and help ensure bowl eligibility for our mid tier schools. Ideally of course we'd help the newcomer build up at a least a little.

This leads me to ponder Toronto. As it follows, the goal of the Big Ten right now is to make the BTN a money making machine. So lets review.

1. Football Revenue via BTN: Already Have That
2. Basketball Revenue via BTN: We're pretty solid there, could be better. Adding in a knock out basketball school would be very nice though, but not a must have as we traditionally have some good national powers. Pitt give us that program, but hurts us in football recruiting as noted by Brian. So meh.
3. Next revenue sport in line: Hockey.

Who loves Hockey? Canadians love hockey. Does the Big Ten want a hockey conference? Kind of looks like they do. Where do the best hockey recruits come from? Canada! What large Canadian school with good academics and an insanely large TV market is kind of in our geographic area? Toronto!

This might be a distant shot, but they get us something more than Pitt and Mizz. They give us a warm body in football. If we really feel sorry for them we can dedicate some conference resources to helping them buildup infrastructure. They give us a huge foothold in hockey land, meaning if say our goal is a Big Ten hockey conference, they add in a sixth strong team. Plus Toronto is an insanely huge TV market. NYC is better, but as Brian says we won't be able to really get the NYC market, even if we snag Rutgers. Toronto is a nice second choice.

CRex

December 15th, 2009 at 5:08 PM ^

NCAA has eyed expansion into Canada in the past: A Source. I'm willing to bet of the Big 10 came to the NCAA and said "We want X school in", we'd be able to get them in, as long as the school was of decent caliber.

Canada cares enough about college sports that a number of their hockey teams do decently and they have a Bowl in Toronto. Beside throw the BTN marketing behind it and we could get a decent segment to care I bet.

Toronto is already in the AAU (www.aau.edu) and has the academic chops we need. I'm not sure if AAU membership is required by the Big 10 or not, but all the current schools are in the club. Of course we might be able to buy our expansion team membership to the AAU given our clout, so who knows.

aenima0311

December 15th, 2009 at 5:00 PM ^

I really like the addition of Pitt as the one that makes the most geographic sense. I'm not so much a fan of expanding the Big Ten "footprint". I view the Big Ten as a Midwest/Northern Midwest football conference, and expanding to the East Coast or our to Mizzouri changes that somewhat.

Pitt-PSU is a natural rivalry. PA is already in Big Ten Country, and that's were it should stay. This only further enforces that.

It also enhances our reputation as a basketball conference, and Pitt's football program is not so bad that they couldn't contend for the Big Ten Title every so often.

Plus, this move would bring the Wannstache into the fold. The importance of this cannot be understated.

Tacopants

December 15th, 2009 at 5:04 PM ^

Rutgers wouldn't exactly be an awful choice. I wouldn't be disappointed if they joined the Big Ten. One can never have enough Northwesterns to pad the schedule.

benjamin

December 15th, 2009 at 5:12 PM ^

I think Vanderbilt University is worth being in the discussion, and then dismissed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanderbilt_University

Student body size is on the small side...but is comparable Northwestern.

Academics are outstanding.

Athletics are decent, again, I would compare them to a Northwestern. At least for the revenue athletic programs.

Geographically, they are close enough... Nashville to Chicago is only 469 miles, compared to State College (PSU) to Chicago which is 566 miles.

Willingness.... Unknown...they are in the SEC... so, maybe,maybe not.

Unique basketball court... This is not a metric that Brian used. However, Minny has the Barn, IU has AH, Purdue has a slightly raised court. Vandy fits right in, with their awkward hoops court.

CRex

December 15th, 2009 at 5:15 PM ^

I'd imagine Vandy might jump. They'd basically be our Northwestern-South and Northwestern has managed to have some good years in the Big 10. Vandy's academic standards would likely make them feel more at home in the Big 10 and they might join feeling they'd have more chance of competing.

Give us a bit of a southern foothold for B10 exposure and recruiting.

virgilthechicken

December 15th, 2009 at 5:17 PM ^

My girlfriend is a Vandy grad associated with the athletic department and seems pretty enthusiastic about being the academically gifted doormat of the SEC. Plus, they were a founding member (they were good at football when Dan McGugin, the brother in law of Fielding Yost, coached there). Probability would be about the same as Northwestern leaving the Big Ten

AKG_2007

December 15th, 2009 at 5:16 PM ^

Strong public institution and one of the founders of the ACC. It was mentioned it would be dificult to pry away an ACC school because of the lacrosse/soccer strength of that conference and the lack thereof in the big ten. Being in a conference like the big ten would give them more national exposure from a football standpoint. Academically it would look great in the big ten.

The ACC with Virginia, Maryland, BC, or even G Tech has teams which could improve the big ten as a conference to a much larger extent than teams like Pitt. If we could somehow get one of these teams to join it would be a huge asset to the conference.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

December 15th, 2009 at 7:28 PM ^

Definitely would not be interested. UVA already lobbied hard for VT to get in the ACC - it's probably the main reason the ACC took VT instead of Syracuse. Not gonna leave after that. As you mentioned, much more of a southern school. Big clash of cultures with the Midwest.

Also - and this is one of the HUGE reasons the Big Ten's not ever gonna get any ACC school at all, including Maryland - is that we'd lose our #1 basketball recruiting chip. Being an ACC program opens more doors in that regard than anything else.

SFBlue

December 15th, 2009 at 5:30 PM ^

For me, the choice among Pitt/Syracuse/Mizzou is not all that appealing. If we are going as far as the great plains and upstate New York, why not consider Virginia Tech, Colorado, and Rice?

Of those, I can see the strongest argument for Colorado. Strong connections with Michigan, going back to McCartney. Would be average academically. College town on par with Madison, Ann Arbor, Iowa City; only Austin is on par in the Big 12.

EDIT: Come to think of it, adding Boulder would give the Big 10 a hands down argument for the conference with the best college towns. I think the Big 10 has that category locked up already, but adding Boulder would make it a conference of college town stand outs. To me, this is clearly paramount to sports.

UMaD

December 15th, 2009 at 5:29 PM ^

In a time where TCU, BYU and SDSU are in the same conference as well as BC and USF, does geography really matter that much? I know a lot of us, including me, would like for conferences to make sense geographically and fit into nice logical categories, but we see again and again that the other factors trump location. Penn State didn't make sense geographically but it was added. If the best school for the Big10 is Florida, Texas, Arizona State, or Hawaii, I think that's the school that will be added. Besides a psychological preference, what are the practical drawbacks to a "long distance relationship"?

Increased travel costs and fewer fans roadtriping to away games. Those seem pretty irrelevant in the 21st century. The impacts to the BTN marketability easily override that in my, perhaps cynical, view.

If you throw out geography (as I would) Syracuse becomes more attractive and the teams under consideration have to be widened. To who....well, maybe Oregon wants a bigger market exposure nationally? Vanderbilt? BC? Theres drawbacks to all of them. I'm just saying theres a lot more teams out there schools out there who might be looking for a better arrangement.

zlionsfan

December 15th, 2009 at 5:32 PM ^

unless you want to read about sports being cut. Even for revenue sports, a long-distance rival is much more costly than a local one, and not all Big Ten athletic departments have bags of cash lying around (or being invested in infrastructure) ... and if that rival is three time zones west, or more, it's going to be a real pain in the ass for that team to play us. If you're ASU, why would you want to travel east 1-3 time zones 4 times a year in football and who knows how many times in basketball? (With Arizona not on DST, the time thing gets a little weird.)

Travel costs may not seem that significant on the surface, but I guarantee you it's not a coincidence to see Big Ten teams scheduling a lot of non-conference games against MAC schools. And don't forget those costs would be less offset by bowl and tournament revenue being divided 12 ways instead of 11.

For non-revenue sports, well ... either the long-distance team plays most of its matches/games/whatever on the road, or something else is going to give.

UMaD

December 15th, 2009 at 6:25 PM ^

I wasn't really familiar with what sports are or are not in the Big 10. Hockey is not, so I assumed some of the other sports also weren't. But looking at the big10 website I see a lot of sports on there. You're probably right. Geography for all those sports probably does matter when added up.

mgotate

December 15th, 2009 at 5:25 PM ^

While we're refreshing our thoughts on potential expansion candidates, why not consider a few "outside-the-box" candidates:

Va. Tech - Football and basketball? Check. Academics? A solid, though not stellar, public institution. Intangibles? Would expand Big Ten footprint further into the southeast market, fanbase would travel well, game atmosphere is CRAZY. Reasons for VaTech? A more storied conference, better access to TV through BTN.

UVA - Football and basketball? While currently down, UVA football has had some good teams in the past, and folks are hopeful that they'll be on their way again. Basketball is similarly down. Perhaps these elicit a "meh" reaction, on review. Academics? Always among the nation's top public universities. Intangibles? Ditto the footprint bit from above. Reasons for UVA? Revenue and exposure would be the biggest reasons, I suppose.

And the largest outlier:

Auburn - Football and basketball? Football has been a traditional powerhouse, and with the way they're recruiting, is likely on its way again. Basketball has been decent from time-to-time, but is still a program that can attract talent. Academics? Wouldn't be the best in the Big Ten, but still a quality public institution. Intangibles? Woo hoo, we'll be in the deep south, with access to a new fertile recruiting base, and rabid formerly-SEC fans. Reasons for AUB? Getting out of a perennially impossible SEC, being able to retain at least its prime rivalry with Alabama, exposure to new markets, association with the "academic" character of the Big Ten.

Hey, if Texas could be considered though it's not a "border" state, so can these, especially since the VA schools are just barely not border states to the Big Ten.

phjhu89

December 15th, 2009 at 8:53 PM ^

....the new Big East lacrosse conference, which is another knock against them leaving the Big East (not that they have needed a conference - until this year they were one of the only two non-conference DI lax schools. Anyway, having finally decided to affiliate with a conference for lax, they would not be likely to take a major step down) Lacrosse is a major sport at cuse - they bring the largest average crowds in.

thethirdcoast

December 16th, 2009 at 12:05 AM ^

...Syracuse would be an awful, awful choice that would only dilute the Big Ten brand.

I currently live and work in western NY, about one and a half hours west of Syracuse, and to my eye the two most popular college football teams in this market are Notre Dame and Penn State. There are also some Michigan and OSU fans here and there. I have seen one or two Pitt fans.

Actually, there are so many people in this region with PA ties that it feels more like northern PA to me. Syracuse basketball has some following in my town, but it is not rabid by any means.

Also, Syracuse itself is a dying city. It's population is shrinking, it sits on the shores of one of the most polluted inland lakes in America, and their version of the "Mall/Resort of America" has turned into a commerical real estate disaster mired in fraud and corruption.

As for Rutgers, I don't think people in this part of NY state even realize it exists. Not surprising considering they barely register in downstate NY.

The Big 10 Presidents will make a tragic mistake if they pick Rutgers or Syracuse. Those two institutions would only serve to dilute the Big 10 brand.

Section 1

December 15th, 2009 at 6:53 PM ^

and since it appears that this announcement was somewhat hastily-arranged, here's a question:

Is this in any way related to a Comcast takeover of NBC? Is there some tv angle, some contractual edge, with Notre Dame, that somebody is seeking to exploit?

Token_sparty

December 16th, 2009 at 11:21 AM ^

Comcast could be more willing than NBC brass to negotiate an 'out' to their current contract, and being a new owner would give them the leverage that old management didn't have. I don't know that NBC benefits a lot by keeping a 6-6 team on national TV every week, so they may be willing to walk. OTOH, if they think Brian Kelly will enact a quick turnaround, they may want to hold on. I'm sure this very thing is being discussed right now, especially at Notre Dame.

brianshall

December 15th, 2009 at 6:54 PM ^

They meet all the criteria; good fit. That said, if Missouri shows interest I think it's more attractive as it extends the new new big 12 footprint.