The Beilein Recruiting Trajectory
Over the past two days Michigan has locked down the services of two touted 2013 players, IN SF Zak Irvin and MI PG Derrick Walton. The two commitments just about complete Michigan's recruiting for the next three years and, with the recent additions of Nik Stauskas, Austin Hatch, and Mark Donnal to go with ever-rising Glenn Robinson III, establish a new baseline for Michigan's ceiling under Beilein.
When John Beilein arrived at Michigan he'd never acquired a player ranked in the top 100 by the diverse and sundry recruiting gurus who translate AAU performance into college projections. Despite this, he'd turned West Virginia into a consistent tourney program and run to a couple of Elite Eights.
This made him attractive to Michigan. Since the Ed Martin thing Michigan has been erring on the side of caution. Beilein's reputation as a guy who could win without even glancing at the seamier side of basketball recruiting separated him from Brian Ellerbe, who seemed to seek out kids who were neither good at basketball or life, and Tommy Amaker, who recruited decently but could not coach to save his life.
Beilein's first class lived up to that reputation:
- UR Stu Douglass: one other offer, that from WMU.
- UR Zack Novak: one other offer, that from Valpo.
- UR Ben Cronin: one other offer from WVU.
- UR Robin Benzing: German.
2008
Cronin's hip prevented him from ever playing and Benzing ended up a point short on his standardized test. Douglass and Novak have been important contributors but are obviously limited—their rankings and offers were on target. Benzing developed into a German national team player who's consistently been mentioned as a late-first or early-second round NBA draft prospect.
This was something close the script we expected when Beilein was hired. Michigan attractiveness relative to West Virginia should produce an uptick, though. Where is our uptick?
Mid-major sorts: 3
Touted recruits: 0
Outperformers: 0 (unless you count Benzing)
2009
- UR Blake McLimans
- UR Jordan Morgan
- #100/#137 Matt Vogrich
- ~#60 Darius Morris
Uptick achieved: Darius Morris was Beilein's first-ever consensus top-100 recruit. Beilein identified Morris early and followed him around like he was a Grateful Dead concert; Morris held Michigan to be his leader throughout his recruiting process and picked Michigan over offers from Oregon State, Washington State, and USC. He proceeded to considerably outplay his ranking en route to becoming a two-and-done.
Matt Vogrich was regarded a pure shooter and given the last slot on the Scout 100 for having the purest stroke in the country; Rivals had him at the tail end of their 150. His offer list had a number of mid-to-low-level BCS teams (Stanford, ND, Wake, GT, Colorado). If not for Morris, Vogrich would have been Beilein's highest-touted recruit ever.
The rest of the class was not so much with the uptick. McLimans took a post-grad year in an effort to draw interest and did get Boston College and Georgia Tech offers, but his ratings were decidedly mid-major. Early commit Jordan Morgan was regarded a major reach even by Morgan's father; he had no other BCS offers.
Mid-major sorts: 2
Touted recruits: 1
Outperformers: 1 (Morgan)
2010
- #84/59/#98 Evan Smotrycz
- #93/UR/UR Tim Hardaway, Jr.
- UR Jon Horford
- UR Colton Christian
Uptick sustained, with another guy around Morris's rankings in Smotrycz. Smotrycz was a non-entity when Beilein started recruiting him and committed just before a blazing AAU season that saw him leap high up lists—at one point he was a top 50 recruit. He came back to earth a bit before final rankings came out.
Meanwhile, Tim Hardaway, Jr., was rated on par with Vogrich but is playing on a much higher level. Horford is another mid-major sort who is moving towards contributing. His only other offer was from Providence. Christian was a very late addition who was headed to Tulane before a coaching change freed him up.
Mid-major sorts: 2 (Christian, Horford)
Touted recruits: 1 (Smotrycz)
Outperformers: 1 (Hardaway)
2011
- #81/94/142 Trey Burke
- #73/98/106 Carlton Brundidge
- UR Max Bielfeldt
- The established pattern has gone from a single touted guy to one and a half touted guys to two, with one big body to develop in the mix. Michigan snagged Burke before another rise, this one spurred by a dominant high school campaign that saw him named Ohio Mr. Basketball; if anything it seems like he's underrated.
- Brundidge committed earlier and saw his rankings drop a little bit but still remains in the 70-100 range; Bielfeldt was a very late addition Michigan managed to grab over Illinois.
- Mid-major sorts: 1
Touted recruits: 2
2012
This is where Beilein seems to ignite:
- #46/60/55 Glenn Robinson III
- #99/100/UR Nik Stauskas
If you believe the chatter coming out of this AAU summer, Robinson is due for another move up the rankings (he's already gone from a three-star to a top 50-ish guy) and Stauskas may as well. Either way this class is two solid four-stars who fit the system while simultaneously drawing attention from NBA folks. This class does not have the project/sleeper/mid-major recruits that have featured in all his previous classes, and it seems like if it adds anyone it will be national top ten recruit Mitch McGary. (Which they probably won't, but if they don't they don't have to add a random guy for roster purposes.)
Mid-major sorts: 0
Touted recurits: 2-ish.
2013
It's too early for anyone to have a solid grasp on where this class is going to be ranked but Beilein has acquired a full class about a month after scholarship offers could officially be issued:
- PF/C Mark Donnal is on early top 100 lists.
- SG/SF Zak Irvin had offers from IU, Purdue, and Butler; two different sources have recently talked him up as a potential top 30 player in his class.
- SG/SF Austin Hatch's story is well known.
- PG Derrick Walton was set to visit MSU this weekend, whereupon he was likely to be offered. He's on early top 100 lists as well. Even if the Irvin chatter is optimistic it seems like this will be another class full of solid top 100 guys well below the one-and-done range. That's three straight: a trend.
- Mid-major sorts: 0
Touted recruits: 3?
Upshot
Time will tell how each of these guys develop, but it's clear that Michigan has gone from picking off late sleepers to identifying and acquiring their plan A targets. When the 2013 class is on campus the only players who can plausibly be identified as backup plans or reaches will be Horford—who seems like he'll at least be useful as a senior—and Bielfeldt. Everyone else will be a guy who Beilein was after hard early.
Sometimes that doesn't work so well and you've got Jarrett Smith and Ron Coleman on your team, but Beilein's track record when it comes to unplucked gems is unparalleled. See: every player at West Virginia, Morgan, Novak, Hardaway, Smotrycz, GRIII, and even Morris and Horford. Now that he's plucking gems other schools are interested in, well… as soon as Michigan figures out its point guard spot they seem Back. For now, and for a long time.
August 2nd, 2011 at 12:35 PM ^
Belien is brilliant coach and a good man, Michigan is lucky to have him.
August 2nd, 2011 at 12:54 PM ^
Very nicely written.
With respect to Beilein's players tending to outperform expectations, this is one of the fun puzzles for coaches like Beilein. Does this happen because he's:
(1) remarkably good at identifying HS talent others don't see?;
(2) excellent with player development?; or
(3) running a system that gets the most out of his players?
I'd imagine that it's a combination of the three, but it's fun to consider the balance. FWIW, I have similar questions about Iowa and Wisconsin's offensive lines.
A sign of a good writer is someone who can use a seemingly contradictory phrase like "establish a new baseline for Michigan's ceiling" and not make me want to copyedit it for clarity. Excellent writeup, as always, Brian.
Under the top caption, Brian should not have used that picture of that particular rocket. That looks like a SeaLaunch rocket (it's in the ocean, and on what appears to be something like an oilrig platform). That company's effectively defunct.
Should have used a viable rocket like SpaceX's Falcon 9, or possibly a Delta or Atlas.
In other words, something to capture the fact that our MBB is going places and is here to stay.
Falcon 9 has only had 2 reportedly successful launches. Sorry, tired of the Elon Musk megalomania hype that the media has latched onto. The company as a whole has drained Elon's wallet and had two launches amid many failures. Yawn. Ok, unwelcome rant over...
[Edit: It wasn't I who negged you, Superstringer. I agree with everything else you had to say.]
Has anyone else heard the rumor that Burke has been the best player on the floor during summer workouts. Not the best freshmen. The best player.
My buddy told me who I assume got it off a Scout board.
No, but this rumor makes me happy, so +1.
Thats the word that the guys at Rivals put out last week.
I think that is a bit of hyperbole, but I also am in the camp that thinks Burke is a star at the college level. Combine his natural talent with his work ethic and I think he is an instant impact player right out of the gate.
He pretty much has to be if we are going to have a good team this year.
I really think Stauskis is going to make a big move up the rankings. That kid is a flat out stud. I have watched many of his films and i think he is going to be a beast in our system. He's an amazing shooter, he can beat you off the dribble. I just love that kids game. You add him with Robinson in that class and then Irvin another lights out shooter, and this team is going to be extremely dangerous and fun to watch for many years to come.
It is gramatically impossible to have a 'baseline' for a 'ceiling.' A baseline suggests a starting point whilst a ceiling suggests a terminal end point.
I think the main issue is if your ceiling has moved up then you never really had a ceiling.
Glad that the program starting to climb out of the hole.
And he's exceeded my expectations by doing things he's never done before. He hasn't landed the elite elite...yet....but he's building the program in a way I didn't think possible, and proving me wrong, so far. I don't think you can win consistently with "sleepers", because at best even if you're doing a good job at it it'll be a 50-50 proposition. But he's doing it a little different...he's having an eye not for talent that he's hoping will blow up here, but for talent that DOES blow up before it even gets here...he's just getting in on it first. The consistency of it is more than just luck. It's building a 4* team (it looks a lot like the Hoke class).
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<br>Now to constantly play in, and to maybe win some Final Fours, he'll need to take the next step and get a couple of McGary types every so often with the others surrounding him. (And then use it to actually win in the Tournament) It's great to be Butler from where we're coming from, but there's a reason they haven't won. But it's on the right path to head that direction.
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<br>Oh, and FWIW, he took WV to 1 Elite 8. But hopefully another on his resume real soon.
In 2005 they were very close to making the final four but fell short. In 2006 in the sweet sixteen they lost on a buzzer beater 3 pointer to Texas.
Getting back to the NCAA tournament was a big step to validate the program and making it to the round of 32, 2 of the last 3 years was even better.
Having Harris and Morris in the NBA is huge, thats every kids dream.
The basketball facility upgrades were so over due, its changed the whole image of the program.
Zack Novak has far out performed his ratings, there is not a school in the conference that wouldnt love to have him.
After watching Nic Stauskas film, im blown away. He is long with a great handle and can shoot the rock. He has great court awareness and his passing reminded me of DMo. This kid literally could play some point guard.
If there is one reason I love John Beilein, it is that he knows how to coach a team and individual players. I don't think the same can be said of Tom Izzo. Name ONE player that John Beilein has recruited here at Michigan that has had a decent amount of time in the system that has not shown significant improvement from his freshman year on. Yes, I realize it is a small sample size, but time and time again he takes kids that are meh recruits and turns them into (at least) serviceable Big Ten players. Zack Novak had no other bball offers. ZERO. Valpo pulled their offer near the end of his recruitment, Beilein stepped in and said "Hey, I think you can shoot the ball and you look like you are a competitive basketball player. How bout you come to Michigan and help turn the program around?" Novak happily obliged and look what he has done now. No, he hasn't averaged 15 and 10 a game, but he is the heart and soul of a team that has made the Tournament for two of the past three years, and doesn't appear to be looking back any time soon. Last year during Big Ten season every three-pointer he put up just looked like it was hitting nylon. He consistently battles players that have 5 inches and 40 pounds on him in the paint and usually comes out on top. I would say that's out-performing expectations.
Stu Douglass is in many respects the same way. Maybe a couple offers from small schools (at one point it looked like he would actually end up playing under Tommy Amaker at Harvard), but nowhere near a Big Ten offer sheet. Once again, he has not been a world-beater at Michigan, but there is no doubt that he plays an integral role on this team as well. While he has never quite reached his shooting potential, his shot is so pretty that I'm amazed every time it DOESN'T go in. Look for him to break the 43% mark on threes this year. No joke. And he gets a very bad rap for his ball-handling skills, but undeservedly so. He is never going to be the flashy PG that DMo was at times, but he can get the job done. On/off, but mostly on, starter for four years in the Big Ten with that offer list = out-performing expectations.
I have never been more excited for a basketball season to come in my whole life, and that's saying something (even though I'm still only 21). I love every part of this team and can't wait for the future to get here.
Beilein still needs the players to overperform their recruiting slots. He's getting better and better players but -- if Michgan wants to win the Big Ten and make deep tournament runs -- the conference's top competitors get even more highly ranked players.
Ohio State, MSU & Indiana are all recruiting beasts, and Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue get players capable of competing as well.
Expecting to win the Big Ten with the level of recruits Beilein is getting still counts on a significant amount of coach-inspired overperformance. It is a very tough league and Michigan still isn't getting the Top 30-type guys who continue to sign with the Spartans and Buckeyes.
Watching Bball at UM since Cazzie and last years team managing to make the NCAA tourney with a win over Sparty at El was the most fun ever. Right up there with the national champ year for fun and intensity. Just loved the intensity and scrappiness.
that laid out like that is impressive. Certainly gives us great hope going forward. Plus, just a class guy. Can't wait for this season!
it has been a long time since I was excited about UM basketball but I have been the past few years. Coach B has done a great job and things really look like they are on the right track at this point. My only concern is how much longer is he going to coach? He isn't a spring chicken and I hope he will be around long enough to turn us into the force I think he can before he decides he is done coaching.
I believe his current contract runs through about the 2015-16 season and I think he has said he will be done after that, but we'll see. I would really like to retain all our assistants and perhaps promote Jeff Meyer or something.
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