Beaver Aftermath

This was going to be a part of Monday Recruitin' but deserves its own post.

So: we're down to one quarterback commit. Rodriguez has a month or so to latch on to another one, though, and a number of attractive targets:

Tajh Boyd

VA QB Tajh Boyd originally committed to West Virginia, but decommitted during WVU's season, probably right after he saw the Bill Stewart Face. He then committed to Tennessee only for Lane Kiffin to say "seeya" as soon as he took the helm. Since he got back on the market he visited Ohio State, generating strong rumors of a future commitment, and plans on visiting Oregon.

Can Michigan get in on a guy they were never really involved with in the first place? They'll certainly try. It might not matter much; ironically given the circumstances of his Tennessee situation, Boyd decommitted WVU in search of a place that would throw the ball more and (hypothetically) better prepare him for the NFL. Can Rodriguez convince him he's interested in throwing the ball more? You'd think so given that his other two quarterbacks are Threet and Forcier, but public perception is hard to change.

Damage to the class if M picks him up: Negative. Boyd his higher rated by everyone.
Chance M picks him up: Seems a long shot at this point. M can really sell opportunity here, though.

Eugene Smith

FL QB Eugene Smith is currently committed to West Virginia, so you know he must like the offense. He was on the board for a long time even after the Beaver/Newsome commits, and then still remained on the board after the Newsome/Forcier swap. He's got a longstanding relationship with the Michigan staff—I believe Calvin Magee is the main guy—and kind-of sort-of seemed to be favoring Michigan at points despite the scholarship situation. Then he committed to WVU a month ago.

Could he be open? Well, yes. Smith told a West Virginia radio program this when he announced his commitment:

I don't want to say I'm shutting the door completely. It will all come in due time. Wait till things get settled down and get my grades.

If Smith's door remains open and the vibe he gave off earlier is any indication… well, it's not like that state's opinion of Michigan could get any worse. One possible hindrance: FL WR Steadman Bailey—briefly a Michigan recruit in the summer—is also a WVU commit. But, uh, we've got a spot at outside WR, kid.

This is 100% speculation, but I got a weird Forcier-like feeling during Smith's recruitment; he obviously liked Michigan quite a bit. If he liked it as much as Forcier he would have leapt on an offer earlier, so this is no slam dunk. Still… I would not be surprised if Smith popped up on the radar again and took a visit.

Damage to the class if M picks him up: also negative. Smith is higher rated by everyone, too.
Chance M picks him up: Extremely strong for a guy currently committed to another school, or "not very good at all but we've got a shot." If Smith decides to take a visit I think we've got a pretty solid chance.

Raymond Cotton

MD QB Raymond Cotton is an Auburn decommit mighty displeased by the Chizik hire. Michigan was not involved with him before his commitment, but, hey, I just broke up with my girlfriend what a coincidence you just broke up with your boyfriend do you want to grind on the dance floor here sign this it's a LOI.

Problem:

Four-star quarterback lists Ole Miss on top

That's the headline of a Rivals article in the aftermath of his decommit, albeit one written a couple days before the Atomic Beaver detonated. Arkansas and Southern Miss are also up high; this guy has the geographical preferences of a guy from Georgia, not Maryland.

Damage to the class if M picks him up: Not insignificant but minor. Cotton's a guy on the three/four star edge and Beaver was generally better regarded. He's good enough to be a viable option, though.
Chance M picks him up: No idea. He's floating out there and Michigan's got an attractive spot open, but he seems set on the SEC.

Denard Robinson

FL QB Denard Robinson is current uncommitted and may be more of an athlete recruit than a quarterback. Florida and Georgia are both competing for his services but plan to bring him in as a WR/DB and I know you're thinking "ack Feagin can't throw" right now but Robinson is on another level as a recruit. He's a member of the Rivals 250, their second-fastest "athlete" prospect, a member of the ESPN 150…

Robinson and ATH Brandon McGee could be twins in this class as both are about 5'11, very athletic, quick and actually very accomplished passers, but it will take the right offense and coaching staff to commit to them as QB's as opposed to making the move to corner or wide receiver.

…and a four-star cornerback to Scout.

Florida has long been rumored the leader, and the Gators have offered him at quarterback. How honest is that QB offer? Eh… fairly legit, actually. Though Florida already has a QB commit in this class they did not take a QB last year and one of the two they took in 2006, Cameron Newton, is in hot water for stealing (and chucking) some kid's laptop.

Robinson really wants that QB shot and a early playing time. He's serious enough about both that he plans on visiting UCF in January; he will also visit Michigan. West Virginia is another candidate.

Damage to the class if M picks him up: Minimal. Robinson's 6-foot tops and probably not even that so is less of a true QB prospect than Beaver, but a QB offer from Florida is a QB offer from Florida is a QB offer from Florida.
Chance M picks him up: Not good; Florida seems the likely destination. One positive: he's taken his official to Florida and came back uncommitted.

Others

Before you ask: yes, TX QB Tyrik Rollison is a top-100 recruit to Rivals and is a dual threat quarterback floating around uncommitted—you may remember him as the QB who was Not Beaver in the Beaver game televised on ESPN2 this fall—but at last update he had an offer from Colorado State and maybe Baylor and definitely not Oklahoma State. What does this say? It says "very unlikely to qualify" in big flashing red letters. I'm hoping that's not the case and Michigan gets involved; that doesn't seem probable.

There are a couple of uncommitted guys listed as dual threat quarterbacks in the Big Ten area: Dolapo Macarthy is from Merrillville, Indiana, and has an Iowa offer; Darren Jones is from Illinois and has offers from Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Both are three stars.

Well?

None of the four guys listed above seems likely. The chances any of the four commits to Michigan are below 50%, and probably below 35%. Then you're vaguely hoping Michigan gets involved with a guy from Texas who may not qualify or down to three star sorts. I'd take a three star sort, but let's not kid ourselves: this decommit is likely to significantly downgrade the results at the most important position in the class.