Basketbullets: Oregon Comment Count

Brian

11/24/2014 – Michigan 70, Oregon 63 – 4-0

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[Joseph Dressler]

Tight all the way. Announcers will proclaim basketball A Game Of Runs. This was a game of ambles, or strolls, or little rabbit hops. The entire game was played in a narrow window between tied and Michigan +8, causing maximum tension throughout. Michigan would push out to five or six or that lovely 8 that one time and then Oregon would hit a three or get a rebound putback and the tension would ratchet up again.

This was a nice reminder that it is possible to have feelings about sports.

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I'm soaked in joy [Joseph Dressler]

Hello Ricky Doyle. The obvious story of the game: after a paltry two minutes against Detroit, Doyle came off the bench to register 24 of the game-winning variety.

His defense was worlds better than anyone else available at center. He was capable of hedging hard, Morgan-style, and recovering. He brought a shot-altering presence. There were a number of opportunities to compare him directly to Donnal as Oregon attempted to post both guys up as likely weaknesses. Doyle gave up a series of difficult attempts that ended in misses and took multiple charges; Donnal gave up buckets and gave fouls. There was a particularly revealing sequence midway through the second half when Michigan tried to steal a few minutes with Donnal and had to lift him after Oregon went right at him on back-to-back possessions.

Doyle also displayed a knack for finishing around the rim, going 4/5 on the night. He went up strong when provided the opportunity to, and as described in the game recap his savvy on the sealing putback was beyond his years. I was like KICK IT OUT, he was like KICK IT OUT, Oregon was like HE'S GOING TO KICK IT OUT WE HAVE TO STOP THIS, and Doyle was able to recognize a lack of options in that department and deliver a mansome finish against three guys.

And about two minutes into the game he was leaving a trail of sweat behind him, hair plastered to his head. That shot on the right makes him look like the world's largest Rascal. I can't find this to credit it but someone suggested we call him "Ice Bucket" because he perpetually looks like he just took the Ice Bucket Challenge. Big, big night.

Eclipse of the Beilein. I would be surprised to find another game in Beilein's tenure at Michigan—or anywhere—with as few three-point attempts as that one. Michigan launched just 13, hitting 5, compared to 33 two-point attempts. Oregon refused to sag and their zero-center lineup featuring a lot of quick guys provided few opportunities to get them out of alignment.

The cost for Oregon was allowing a ton of driving lanes. That is normally not a huge problem for a Michigan opponent, but LeVert was able to get to the basket and draw a whopping 13 FTAs; as a team Michigan had 29, with only a few due to late-game fouling.

The contrast in LeVert's game between long shots—3 of 13 on the night from the field—and drives was stark. LeVert had a number of Long Contested Isolation Jumpers that banged off the back rim and set up Oregon's transition game. The drives got Michigan vital points and set Oregon against a half-court defense. This was no doubt the message Beilein was sending with an unusually fiery rant during a late timeout.

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YOUTH IS WASTED ON THE YOUNG [Bryan Fuller]

Chatman starts strong, then wobbles. We saw Kam Chatman's best burst of play as a Wolverine in the first few minutes of the game. He set up Mark Donnal for an easy dunk and had a sinuous finish of his own. Then things got rough, on both ends. Michigan eventually yanked him after some defensive breakdowns; before that he'd bricked another three and missed two of his four FTAs wildly.

There hasn't been much to indicate that anyone else is ready to take those minutes, so Michigan is going to have to keep rolling with him and hope he can be more like that guy early instead of that guy late.

Irvin: not just a shooter. Zak Irvin joined the parade of guys heading to the bucket, drawing a couple fouls and finishing some swooping drives smoothly. Early yet, but so far he seems to have a good feel for when he can attack closeouts and looks much more comfortable doing so than GRIII or THJ ever did. I've been wary about the idea Irvin is going to become a complete offensive player because of those two antecedents; so far, so good.

Beilein autobench ack. Walton was limited to six points in 24 minutes as the Beilein autobench saw him out for most of the first half and for five or so minutes in the second. I love John Beilein but… Walton averaged 2.5 fouls per 40 last year. Michigan voluntarily fouled him out of this game.

Silver lining is that he'll be relatively fresh for tonight's game. Michigan had its usual early-season-tourney spate of weird lineups in the first half, but with the game on the line and no bench players other than Doyle distinguishing themselves, Michigan had to go with a heavy, heavy dose of LeVert (39 minutes) and Irvin (38 minutes). Hell, Spike got 35 himself. If Michigan's going to win against 'Nova, Walton's going to have to have a huge game.

Rebounding issues. Oregon came in averaging big piles of OREBs, as you might expect from a team with a lot of bouncy 6'6" guys who crash the boards. You'd want Michigan to do better than they did, though. Oregon rebounded almost half their misses.

The fives were overwhelmed not by length but by numbers. Neither Donnal nor Doyle pulled in a DREB—Doyle did have three on the other end—but with 11 OREBs between the three main Duck forwards it's hard to put the blame on them exclusively.

One issue: another rough night for Chatman forced Michigan to use a Spike lineup featuring Irvin at the 4 for most of the second half.

The damage. Via hoop-math, 10 of the 18 Oregon OREBs were immediately put back up, with seven buckets resulting. That's the only reason this game was close. Can Michigan do anything about it is the question.

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Physics is a dead end, Shon. How is the wreckage of the Indiana program going, Tom Crean?

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Oh.

Comments

CaliUMfan

November 25th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^

I would agree with the frustration with foul policy except that I think Michigan's elite ability to not foul is likely largely due to Belien's strict adherance to that policy. 

BiSB

November 25th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^

What is the ABSOLUTE nightmare, worst-case scenario? Walton fouls out with 10 minutes left to play? So he misses 10 minutes of the game.

What happens when you sit him for 10 minutes of the first half? He misses 10 minutes of the game. Those first four fouls are a resource. Use them.

jmblue

November 25th, 2014 at 3:42 PM ^

If you miss the last 10 minutes of the first half, your team still has an entire half to recover from whatever happened then.  There is also of course the possibility of returning to the game in case something really bad happens.  

OTOH if you miss the last 10 minutes of the game due to fouling out, that's it - you can't return. The team has to play down the stretch without you.  I don't like that scenario as much as the first.

alum96

November 25th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

With Kam struggling I wouldnt mind seeing 6-8 minutes a night of Donnal at the 4 just to see how he does - at least vs big teams.  He looks a lot more like a stretch 4 in an Evan S type of way then a 5, at least in terms of physicality.  Supposedly he has a decent 12-16 ft jumper.  That of course assumes Doyle can play 20-23 minutes and stay out of foul trouble which some nights won't happen.  Donnal can still then rotate over to 5 for 10 minutes a night as well.

UMaD

November 25th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^

Our offense is a 1-in/4-out scheme.  Donnal and Wilson are not nearly skilled enough to do the ball handling that they system requires. Being able to shoot isn't enough.

I'm skeptical that you'd gain much on defense, but even if you did, you'd lose a LOT on offense.  It's not just about have a shooting 'stretch 4' it's about having a wing with legit all-around skills, the ability to drive when there's an obvious opportunity, etc.

Donnal and Wilson may get there someday but right now they aren't close.  Right now, Wilson has the tools, but doesn't know what he's doing yet.  Donnal's probably never going to be skilled enough, but that could change.

mtlcarcajou

November 25th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^

Our 1 usually comes to the line, receives, passes out, then screens once or twice before rolling in. The 1 must read the D, be a good passer, read the movement of 1 through 4, time screens and cuts precisely. It's rare - and at this stage kind of pointless - to pick and pop when screening for Caris while Irvin and Walton (& sometimes Spike) are setting up for 3's & backdoors. You want a pick and crashing the boards on long shots.

Defensively we don't play rim-protector so much as challenge everything high. Size isn't going to do much for you there. Doyle has good footwork and gets to spots well, but doesn't have the timing for a big shotblocker - that'll come eventually with Wilson. 

Think we might see a lot more 2-in/3-out (what Beilein ran at WV, modernized) in B1G play if Donnal and Wilson progress well. 

gwkrlghl

November 25th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^

but didn't want to say anything for fear I was missing something. What about a line-up with Donnal at the 4 and Doyle at the 5 if Doyle proves to be capable up front? Chatman and Wilson have both been sketchy thus far (as has Donnal to be fair) but a rotation of Chatman and Donnal at the 4 and Doyle/Bielfeldt at the 5 seems like a reasonable thing to try. No?

umchicago

November 25th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^

you can tell he's been working hard on that hedge play on D at the top of the key.  quickness is his weakness and i see definite improvement since those overseas games.

kudos to him and the coaching staff.  hopefully, chatman will make similar improvement over the next few months, else we are in trouble against bigger teams; like many in the BIG.

FreddieMercuryHayes

November 25th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^

Chatman's offensive game is just brutal right now.  He had a jumper last night that the camera was lined up perfectly at his back, and man, as soon as that ball was 1 cm off his hand you could tell it was waaaaayy off.  And it was.  He's a seemingly good on ball defender, handles the ball with great poise, but he doesn't seem to know how to move in the offense, and of course the shooting.  If he can get a shot down, he can be a very valuable cog to a very successfull team.

ijohnb

November 25th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^

no confidence in his shot.  It looks like a mental thing, like he is shooting it and apologizing for shooting it in one motion.  His shot looks really "shaky" right now, but there is a silky jumper underneath those nerves.  I think once he hits a couple he is going to start bombing.

Blue In NC

November 25th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^

Agreed.  the shooting stroke looks very good at times.  It seems to be consistency and confidence that is killing the shot right now.  He just needs to hit the gym and shoot 500 balls per night and few times and then hope that repitition transfers over to the game.  Definitely a guy you would like to see get some easy baskets in game time.

DrewGOBLUE

November 25th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

The good thing here, in a sense, is that quite a few of Chatman's attempts have not been good looks, which in and of itself is a result of his lack of familiarity with the offense. So I imagine his FG% should improve, with his shots looking less erratic, as he picks up on Beilein's schemes.




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alum96

November 25th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^

The announcers went for the easy comparison with Doyle being a poor man Mitch because hey...they are both white Michigan centers (expect more of that this season if Doyle continues to play well) but it's not a very good comparison outside of motor.   In fact Doyle seems to have a game a lot more like Morgan but with the potential for more offense as time goes by (had a sweet baby hook a few games ago). 

It is often forgotten by Morgan's trips to the wilderness in his junior, early senior year but he started off his Michigan career in very nice fashion as a freshman.  If Doyle can get anywhere near Morgan's freshman (within 20%) numbers we should be very pleased considering Doyle did not have the benefit of a redshirt year.

Morgan - 24 minutes a game, 63% FG%, 9.2 PPG, 6.5 rebounds. 

Morgan never got back to those figures in his last 3 years @ UM although the last 15 games of his senior year he was playing in that sphere.

Again, 1 game so let's not jump the gun and he will have nights he plays 7 minutes and goes 1-4 with 4 fouls but you can see a motor there that will give you an honest effort every night which as a fan is so fun to watch.

Also it is going to be nice to have a guy like this for 4 years- doesnt have elite NBA type athleticism like Mitch did so he might be a Frank Kaminsky type without the outside jumper Frank has.   In the modern NCAA you almost need to have 2-3 guys like this who are going to be around their entire career in your rotation to provide some damn stability unless you are UK who can funnel 5 star 1-2 and dones constantly.

UMaD

November 25th, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^

But it took him years to get up to the physicality that he had as a senior. Doyle already brings it.  Graham Brown is another guy he reminds me of, because of his strength.  For a true freshman, his skills are vastly superior to both at the same age.  Hopefully he keeps building on the very promising beggining.  Don't sleep on him developing that jumper eventually...

Agree that nobody should be comparing Doyle to McGary, but he does have the potential to be a impact rebounder without being a high-flying shotblocker, so they're not TOTALLY different players. Mitch's skill and athleticism was on a nother level though...

UMaD

November 25th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^

"There hasn't been much to indicate that anyone else is ready to take those minutes"

Except his minutes have been extremely limited the last couple games.  He's the nominal starter at the 4, but most of the minutes there are going to Irvin.  By one degree of separation, his minutes are going to...Spike.

Michigan's probably maxed out their capability to do that, but they could run even more 4-guard time if Dawkins or MAAR emerged...and Dawkins looks good every time he plays.

UMaD

November 25th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^

Oregon probably will have the best rebounding performance of the season against us -- and they did it without anybody who breaks 6'7.

We don't need a big 4 (Wilson or Donnal) to help rebounding, we need guys who box out, are strong, tough, and have good instincts on the glass.  I think Chapman is our best hope actually for improving defensive rebounding without sacrificing offensively.

UMaD

November 25th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

I'm making a habit out of praising GR3 because, well, every basketball post (and some football posts) seem to take shots at him.

Yesterday we saw several opportunities to throw down powerful jams where Irvin and especially Chatman turned potential dunks into passes, free throw attempts, or long jumpers.  This is something that you can't measure statistically, but a place where GR3's athleticism, strength, and quickness was invaluable.

Michigan controls this game throughout and wins by double digits if GR3 had returned.

Yo_Blue

November 25th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^

Anyone else think that Beilein looks frustrated on the bench?  There is more head shaking and frowns out of him this year than I recall in the past.

UMaD

November 25th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^

JB said at the half "we're just trying shit because these guys don't know what they're doing".  Paraphrased, obvs, but he's not hiding the fact that his freshman are struggling to catch on. He is clearly frustrated by it. 

It's not the last we'll see of the Walton-Spike-Caris-Irvin-Max lineup... but we saw encouraging flashes from Doyle, Chatman, and even Dawkins for a minute.

Donnal is the one guy that should be further ahead than he is...

MBloGlue

November 25th, 2014 at 2:53 PM ^

Brian mentions that Irvin "has a good feel for when he can attack closeouts". Can one of the basketball wonks provide a more detailed explanation of what exactly this means? Why the comparison to THjr and GRIII here? This is a serious question.

jmblue

November 25th, 2014 at 3:47 PM ^

A closeout is when you get up in a shooter's face on the perimeter so that he can't get off a 3-pointer.  When a defender does it, that's often a good time to give a fake, put the ball on the floor and attack the rim.  Brian's saying that Irvin has a good feel for when to do this.

Jonesy

November 25th, 2014 at 6:30 PM ^

Not just getting in his face its when you have to run a good distance to get to him, if you run too slowly they get  an easy open shot, if you run too recklessly they pump fake and go right by you, the goal is to run fast and then jump stop right at them in control so you're in their face if they shoot and you're in control and set if they try to go around you.

growler4

November 25th, 2014 at 3:08 PM ^

Gee Brian, I'm so glad that Michigan Basketball is winning and that they won last night so that you were reminded that you can have feelings about sports. It is, after all, mostly about you...

I don't know ... Perhaps our football team isn't where we want them to be at this time, but Saturday's game was close until the end and lots of fans - myself included - were cheering throughout. Encouraging the players - OUR Michigan players - to do well.

Yes, the outcome was disappointing - again - but I managed to live another day without wallowing in self pity. You might try it.