The Post Defense Was... Good?

Michigan put up a surprisingly strong fight in the post. [Patrick Barron]

I don't think I was alone in thinking Wisconsin, boasting two strong post scorers in Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes, would crush Michigan in the paint on Tuesday night. Instead, Michigan limited the Happ/Hayes duo to shooting a combined 8-for-20 on two-pointers with six assists and four turnovers; they were the two least-efficient players among Badgers to play at least 12 minutes.

I went back through the game and pulled clips of every Wisconsin possession that went through the post. While Happ missed a couple makeable shots, Michigan generally played strong post defense, with both DJ Wilson and Moe Wagner standing out for the good:

Given how Michigan has played defense this year, the first thing that jumps out is their effort; they scrapped for post position, didn't give up on plays, and hit the deck for rebounds.

Wilson gave up an easy bucket to Hayes early when he got caught napping on a cut (0:29 mark) and couldn't recover in time to deny prime post position. He otherwise did quite well; he blocked Happ twice and forced a Hayes miss shortly after the aforementioned bucket by establishing good position and forcing him to spin for a tough left-handed attempt.

While Wagner wasn't quite as strong in the post, which allowed Happ to get good position on him multiple times, he used his hands quite well to disrupt Happ on the way up and pulled off the subtle "step in and bump the guy with your chest" thing that often throws off shots and rarely draws a whistle (0:39, 2:23). A couple paint baskets weren't on the bigs, either; I didn't include Vitto Brown getting isolated on Duncan Robinson, which ended in a layup (surprise!), and on the final clip Robinson rotates over to the open big way too late.

The notable exception to M's strong interior defense: Mark Donnal, who gave up an and-one and fouled Happ on the floor just before he could give up another on his two post defense possessions before getting yanked.

In his lone opportunity, Jon Teske gave up a second-chance bucket when he lost contact with Happ after an offensive rebound. I'd still like to see more of him out there; Donnal was physically overwhelmed on defense and once again a non-factor on offense, so Beilein might as well let his behomoth freshman big man work through his mistakes—Teske is much more likely to display significant in-season improvement than a guy in his fourth year in the program.

Michigan still had their fair share of defensive breakdowns, which I'll get to momentarily. That said, this was an encouraging performance on that end of the floor, especially in the paint. If the Wolverines can replicate that level of effort on defense while getting offensive outputs like they have in their non-Wisconsin Big Ten games, they can make a late tourney push. It's a huge if, of course, but it's hard not to feel better about this team after Tuesday night despite the loss.

[Hit THE JUMP for the aforementioned breakdowns, highlights of a couple 2017 commits, and more.]

The Breakdowns

Same. [Barron]

Yes, there were some Kohl Center shenanigans—I'm not sure how a ref blows an out-of-bounds call while standing right there—but Michigan had several opportunities to push for the win down the stretch and failed to capitalize because of simple errors.

The first is the most excusable. Wisconsin ran a play they hadn't tried all year to free up Bronson Koenig for a go-ahead three:

Wisconsin grew so desperate to get Koenig an open look that coach Greg Gard called for an entirely unexpected elevator screen to manufacture an open 3 for him. It was the first time the Badgers ran the play this season. Koenig knocked it down.

While Michigan would be hard-pressed to see this play coming, they didn't adjust well on the fly; three players get caught behind the two screeners, and I believe it's on Duncan Robinson (Anthony Wright concurs) for not recognizing that Walton won't be able to blast through two screeners to get out on Koenig:

The next Koenig triple opened up because of an inexcusable error by Derrick Walton, who took a halfhearted swipe at Nigel Hayes while Koenig slipped to the corner for a wide open look:

Walton did a good job defending Koenig for most of the night, which shouldn't be discounted. That was a terrible time, however, for a mental error of that magnitude, especially from a senior captain.

Finally, Wisconsin both started their second-half comeback and put the final nail in Michigan's coffin because Mark Donnal might as well have not participated in these free-throw attempts:

I hate using this term: that is soft. I can't explain why Donnal doesn't even realize he's completely lost Happ on the first rebound until Happ already has a hand on the ball. To allow that to happen again, even after getting benched, on a must-have rebound is mind-boggling.

I don't know if those two missed boxouts will prompt Beilein to play Teske over Donnal; his reaction to the second indicates he's at least thinking about it.

Looking Ahead: Livers, Brooks Showing Promise

After the last couple recruiting classes, it's hard to blame Michigan fans for being lukewarm on the 2017 class; their highest-ranked commit, SG Jordan Poole, is #88 overall in the composite. Poole played in a nationally televised game over the weekend; he was limited to spot-up duty, scoring 11 on 2-for-5 three-point shooting, on a loaded La Lumiere team featuring blue chip recruits Jaren Jackson and Brian Bowen. He's got a good-looking shot; assessing the rest of his game wasn't easy as Jackson and Bowen, along with top-30 2019 PG Tyger Campbell, dominated the ball while Poole mostly stood in the corner to open up room for them.

The other, less-heralded 2017 commits had more impactful performances over the weekend. Three-star PG Eli Brooks showcased a wide variety of talents despite being the lone threat on an overmatched team in Spring Grove's loss to Carlisle. Highlights are above (actual hoops starts at the 1:00 mark) and TMI's Gene Hankerson posted an in-person scouting report on their board:

He dropped 26 points despite being double and triple teamed most of the night.  Now, I know you're thinking, "26 points isn't that great... division one players should do that." You have to understand that Eli plays on a bad team, I mean a bad team!  Carlisle is the most athletic team Spring Grove has faced, featuring a three sport division-one recruit in DeShawn Millington.  After seeing the future Wolverine get off to a hot start, Carlisle made the smart decision to full court press and trap at half court to force the ball out of his hands.

Eli Brooks has game.  He's highly skilled, has handles, and score at every level.  He can cross you up, hit the step back three, or drive it in the paint.  Brooks plays great defense as well, he had a couple impressive blocks tonight.  

I walked away just really impressed, knowing that he could come in and start next season.  He's that good.  He's also very humble, and intelligent kid.

Brooks followed that up with a 40-point outburst on Wednesday. He looks bigger and more athletic than Xavier Simpson, who's going to have to show more on offense down the stretch if he wants to step into the starting role next year without a serious battle.

Meanwhile, this is the second single-game reel of four-star PF Isaiah Livers (first one is here) from the last month or so that has me pretty excited about his potential:

A 6'8" forward with some bulk who can handle the ball—Livers runs the point for Kalamazoo Central—and knock down shots seems like an ideal fit.

As for M's top remaining 2017 target, five-star C Mo Bamba included the Wolverines in his final four along with Duke, Kentucky, and Texas. He's taken his officials to Michigan and Texas; Duke and Kentucky are still on the docket. He'll be a tough pull, but M is at least still in the mix.

Etc.

Michigan is now in the "next four out" section on the Bracket Matrix, making only 20 of the 76 brackets. It'll be an uphill battle to make the field; using KenPom's projections, Crisler Spidey notes that they're currently more likely to finish 7-11 in the Big Ten than 9-9. Unless they make a deep run in the conference tournament they probably need to hit that nine-win mark to make the field, and even then it's a dicey proposition. MLive's Brendan F. Quinn looks at the remaining schedule and wonders if it's too late for M to make a tourney run.

The extreme offense/defense splits earn M a section in John Gasaway's Tuesday Truths.

Miss you, J-Mo.