Basketbullets: Detroit Comment Count

Ace

11/20/2014 - Michigan 71, Detroit 62 - 3-0


Blow-by. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

Apparently necessary perspective. Hoo boy, I guess making the point that having three players account for over three-quarters of the team's points may not be ideal in the long run equated to PANIC for many. It's admittedly difficult to make a nuanced point in a gamer written moments after the final buzzer, so allow me to flesh this out a little more.

It's November. The team has five scholarship non-freshmen. Of course there are going to be growing pains, areas of concern, and the like at this juncture. That's far from saying those issues won't be resolved, or at least mitigated, as the season progresses; on the flip side, that doesn't mean those areas aren't worth pointing out. Michigan is too reliant on their three starting guards right now. The freshmen centers and Kameron Chatman do have to step up, or there will be too many ways to exploit this team, especially when they face larger opponents.

John Beilein still coaches this team, though. In-season improvement isn't just the hope, it's the established expectation, and one only has to think back to the Charlotte game last season for perspective; every basketball team is going to have their share of ugly outings, and Michigan just beat a team with a pulse by nine in such a game.

Another helpful tack. Take a look at the recent scores of the upcoming marquee opponents on Michigan's schedule.

  • Oregon, Michigan's opponent next Monday, went into halftime tied at home against this same Detroit team four days ago. They pulled away and won by 17; if the Titans had decided to start fouling at a reasonable time last night, Michigan's final margin might've been very similar.
  • Villanova, the most likely opponent if Michigan advances to the final of the Legends Classic (it'll be 'Nova or VCU), nearly lost to Bucknell—the squad M whomped by 24 points—at home last night, needing a late run to win by a misleading seven points after the Bison took a 65-63 lead with 1:51 remaining. 'Nova also had a six-point second-half deficit against #237 Lehigh in their season opener before pulling away.
  • VCU, for their part, had a lot of trouble at home against #113 Toledo on Tuesday. The Rockets held a four-point lead midway through the second half and were as close as one point back with three minutes to play before VCU's press forced a few critical turnovers to close it out.
  • Syracuse played Cal in Madison Square Garden last night, a neutral-site game that essentially functioned as a home game. The Bears entered the evening as KenPom's #63-ranked squad. Cal won by 14.
  • SMU is now 1-2 thanks to a tough schedule and some ugly play; after losing by 16 at Gonzaga on Monday, they committed 19 turnovers on their way to losing by six at Indiana last night, coughing up a 12-point first-half lead in the process.

So let's not freak out just yet.

Derrick Walton! I think this is something that often comes through better in person than on TV, but Walton's court vision in transition is something to behold. It's tough to run a 3-on-2 break better than this:

The move to initiate the break is slick, but the real moment of excellence here is the little dive into the lane just before the pass; even though Max Bielfeldt's spacing here isn't ideal, Walton forces the two Detroit defenders to collapse into the paint, and in doing so he also shortens the pass to Irvin. Walton could've easily stayed wide to the left and tried a cross-court pass to Irvin, but that would've given the far-side defender time to get out and contest the shot. Instead, he hits Irvin in rhythm, and Detroit can only contest the shot late, which is doom against Irvin.

Walton and Caris LeVert are both rebounding very well—both, in fact, have top-200 defensive rebound rates at this very early juncture—and that's allowing Michigan to get out in transition, where they're absolutely lethal.

A quiet 21-9-3. LeVert's final stat line looked darn impressive despite a very uneven performance. I'd still like to see him finish more of his drives at the rim instead of settling for pull-up jumpers, but he managed to knock down a couple of those shots last night, and at some point you just shrug and let the NBA prospect take NBA shots; LeVert's 46% shooting mark inside the arc matches his percentage from last season, and that's while shouldering a bigger offensive load without Nik Stauskas around to stretch defenses thin.

Meanwhile, LeVert's got a 25.6% assist rate against just a 11.1% turnover rate, his defensive rebound rate ranks 83rd(!) nationally, and he's been very active on defense. When his outside shot starts falling, and it will, he's going to post some absurd stat lines.

The go-to lineup. This is where those lingering concerns come to the forefront. Michigan's best lineup for the past couple games has been Albrecht-Walton-LeVert-Irvin-Bielfeldt, and I don't think that's going to hold up in the long run—the lineup has its considerable upsides but also some major shortcomings.

The positives: Spike Albrecht has been fantastic thus far this year at generating offense for others, and he found his shot last night, too. With him out there, Walton can crash the defensive boards a little more—and subsequently get M out on the break in a hurry—and spot up for those killer corner threes on the other end. This is also Michigan's most experienced lineup, so their halfcourt offense runs smoothly; these guys know where to be, which isn't the case at the moment with the freshmen.

The negatives: Michigan hasn't faced a big, strong-rebounding team yet, and I'm skeptical of how well this lineup will hold up in that regard once they do. That would be a huge problem, as this lineup would have to continue rebounding at a phenomenal rate to make up for the fact that there's zero rim protection with Bielfeldt at the five and Irvin at the four. Detroit had a few disturbingly easy layups against this group when they were able to get past a perimeter defender; once that happened, they didn't face any resistance.

I think this is a stopgap while the freshmen figure it out, and nothing more than a situational lineup against better teams. Detroit didn't have the size or post skill to attack them at their weakest point; that won't be the case in a week, and definitely not in Big Ten season.


Beilein has been visibly frustrated with his freshmen. [Fuller]

Withholding judgment. Kameron Chatman is struggling out there. DJ Wilson has no clue where he's supposed to be on the court. Mark Donnal blew a layup last night. Ricky Doyle put up a two trillion. John Beilein is unhappy with their development, and it's not hard to see why.

Here's where I scream IT'S THREE GAMES INTO THEIR FRESHMAN SEASONS. Chatman has played the most out of any of these guys, a whole 60 minutes across three games. There are people drawing big-picture conclusions about him and the others from seeing them play basketball for an hour or less. One. Hour. These guys get more burn in a single practice than they have so far this season.

TOTALLY RANDOM ASIDE: In Trey Burke's first official game, against Ferris State, he shot 1/7 from the field with a 0:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Chatman's offensive woes have been disconcerting, sure, but he's also missing shots that are going to start falling; he's 1/5 at the rim this season. His field goal misses from the free-throw area have often come off awkward drives; when he had the chance to catch-and-shoot last night, he stroked an 18-footer from the right elbow, a shot that very much looks repeatable. He's shown flashes of being a very good passer. His rebounding rates are passable and should only improve.

Chatman has a ways to go on defense, but he's already advanced in his ability to disrupt passing lanes. Looking at what guys like D'Angelo Russell and James Blackmon Jr. are doing as true freshmen—in less complicated offenses, with entirely different roles—isn't fair to the kid, and a slow start doesn't mean he won't flourish as early as this season.

The bigs have barely played enough to even have a half-baked opinion, let alone a fully-formed one. Just because Beilein finally has the luxury to put a senior, however limited in terms of size and athleticism, out there to show them how it's done doesn't mean Donnal/Doyle/Wilson won't be critical parts of the rotation going forward.

Smile!

It's gonna be okay, everyone.

Comments

alum96

November 21st, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^

Not down or anything myself but was hoping to see more out of Chatman.  He is a top 30 recruit and a similar guy like GR3 came in and put up double digits immediately (including 21 in his second game).  We do need a 4th wheel and Chatman was the likely candidate.  Right now he is 3-16 for the season. 

Nik and Zak came in and had modest roles as frosh - basically come in and shoot the rock well - they seemed to at least know where to be while Kam seems to be struggling.

His ranking is similar to Blackmon who is only 3 games in and would NOT start for UM (amazingly) due to Caris blocking him but with how JB is being forced to go to essentially a 3 guard lineup (with Spike) would be logging huge minutes I estimate.  

It's early but fergodsakes Blackmon might be a 1 and done.  FG% 57%(!) 3 PT FG% (61!!) , FT% (90%!), 23.3 pts over 3 games and 5 rebounds to boot for a guard.  Damn.  This one is gonna sting.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/3147669/james-bl….

Fun fact - Walton played all 40 minutes yesterday.  Caris and Zak 38.  Another reason we need secondary players to produce is these 3 guys are going to be worn down, despite their added bulk, conditioning etc - it just happens.  If you play 31-32 a night v 38+ it will add up over a season.  Our biggest stretch of tough games is late Jan thru late Feb and if these guys are being forced to play 37-38 min a night all year (even for games like U of D) it's going to be rough on them. 

Going to give it a month and re-assess the freshmen.  I am sure all of these guys are going to be better but I'd like to see 1-2 of these new guys to show a very high ceiling in case we lose more than just Levert early for next year.   All these 2015 recruiting misses have been upsetting so we need some of these guys to show something more than functional role player by January.

A State Fan

November 21st, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

I don't think the minutes matter as much in Michigan's sytem. If Irvin, LeVert, and Walton can take turns shouldering the offensive load (ie creating shots for themselves and others), that can give the other two a chance to sit in the corner and rest a little. Plus with 4 TV timeouts a half, plus 12 total Timeouts between coaches, you can have a lot of built in rest that doesn't involve taking them off the court.

 

With Burke/Nik, those guys were playing 35-38 every game and needed to carry the load more than any of these 3 do. I do think getting them to 35 is probably ideal (coach B doesn't like 38-40 either I'd guess), but Beilein has never really shyed away from playing his stars all game.

michclub19

November 21st, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^

I disagree with your assesment on Chatman.  I believe his role is much more involved than GRIII, Stauskas, or Irvin.  Let's not forget GRIII got most of his points on fast breaks or easy buckets when Trey broke down the defense, basically very simple, high percentage shots.  It seems like Kam has been asked to be more involved in the flow of the offense and has not had those opportunities for easy buckets.
As for Zak and Nik, the "spot" they needed to find as freshman was "somewhere outside the arc."  Kam has to find openings inside the arc amongst the defense, not just pick-and-pop.  As I mentioned in another thread, it seems that right now he's more concerned about running the offense as it's drawn up and it's limiting his ability as a natural playmaker.

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^

The GR3 comparison need to stop.  Kam can't shoot like Smotrycz or Sims and has a better handle than any of those guys but he's not the high flying athletic force that GR3 was.  Michigan may not have an athlete of that caliber for a long time.

Beilein always asks his freshman to fit into the role the team needs from them. It's no different for Kam.  They need him to play defense, box out, and play his complementary role on offense as the scrappy garbage guy and 5th wheel.  Next year, his role can expand to more play making but right now he's forcing things.

Which is understandable.

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^

Dawkins is a guy I thought had a chance at starting at the 4 spot because he could immediately serve a role as a 3-point shooting floor-spacer.  However, he looks very skinny.  I trust Beilein has his reason for not playing the kid, even though he has looked pretty good in his limited minutes.

I have high hopes for him still but pump your brakes HARD on the GR3 comparisons. The recruiting profiles are not on the same continent.

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 4:44 PM ^

GR3 was a very-high level 3 star recruit who JB got in on before his bump up in recruiting status as he physically matured. He was not a late sleeper in the way that Burke or Levert were, he's more like a higher end version of THJ (who also shot up the rankings well after JB got him). 

Dawkins was post-grad kid that had plenty of opportunity to be seen but most programs passed on.  JB identified him late when plans A, B, C, D, E, and F all fell through.  Athleticism aside, Dawkins' profile is closer to Spike than GR3.

I have high hopes for Dawkins as an athletic wing and 3 point bomber.  I'm hoping he can evolve into a version of freshman year Zak Irvin or THJ (i.e., just a shooter, except also an athletic wing who can do things without the ball).  But he's never going to be GR3 who was a "slasher" even at the HS level.

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^

I'd rather have Zak, Caris, Derek, and Spike with the ball in their hands.  Kam should have it less often than GR3 had it last year.

Next year might be a different story, but this year you're taking away from the strength of your team every second someone outside our top 4 has the ball.

reanimator

November 21st, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^

Ehhhh

I'd take Kam as a PnR and transition handler over GR3 and Irvin EASILY

I'd take him over Spike because his height will allow him to make passes that Spike cannot

And I think Kam will be in our top 4 by B1G play. We can revisit this.

Kid has a good rebounding, steals and assist rate and if JB allowed him to play bad defense for 30 mins (like Blackmon Jr and Russell)..he'd have a pretty healthy statline 

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^

Something that is very helpful to success in the PNR is the ability to shoot.  Otherwise the defenders just sag out of it.

Regardless of your opinion about who has better handle, the shooting (for Irvin) makes this a non-contest.

Height is just the worst argument ever. I'm going to ask you to get in the way back time machine and look up some Trey Burke highlights.  Or maybe switch over to the NBA and see which players are the best passers in the league and see if it has any correlation with height (it does - shorter people tend to be better at it).

I have little doubt that if we were playing one on one tournaments within the team, Cam would do very well.  He's probably 4th there.  But this isn't one on one.  I couldn't care less if he has a healthy statline, because this team needs a Mike Griffin, not a Glen Rice.

reanimator

November 21st, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^

Darius Morris> Nik Stauskas>Trey Burke as PnR passers (scoring no accounted for)

Height isn't the "the worst argument ever

And the best PnR handler in basketball has always been 6'6''-6'8'' swingmen (Lebron, Kobe, TMac, Ginobili, etc). They can make passes that a CP3 or Rondo can't and get their shot off whenever. 

Irvin taking more than 2 dribbles = a TO... saying hos shooting makes him better as a PnR handler than Kam is absurd. Lamar Odom was better than Kyle Korver or JJ Reddick ever were in PnR. Please. 

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 2:32 PM ^

LeBron is a better PLAYER than those guys, but you are conflating different things. It's not because of the PNR.

Lebron is good, but ho-hum players like Dragic, Lin and DeRozan are better.  And don't get me started on CP3, Nash, and Zeke in their prime...

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/02/28/pick-and-roll-data-likes-the-s…

You have to be able to dribble drive, pass, and shoot to be an excellent pick and roll player.  We have 4 guys who can do all 3. Kam is not one of them.

You seem to think Zak Irvin has no handle. I disagree.  He is not just a shooter (like Korver or Reddick).

And, while I loved DMo and thought he had the best passing skills I've ever seen in a Michigan uniform, he was not as effective as the college basketball player of the year in the PNR.  Beilein didn't use it as much back then, but when DMo  was a freshman it was still the Manny Harris show.

reanimator

November 21st, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^

Dragic is 6'5''

Derozan is 6'6'' 

KD is 6'10''

And LBJ is 4th 

Are you serious? 

And I'd love to know what bizarro universe can Zak handle and pass?

And UMhoops has all the data you need to find out soph Darius Morris is the best PnR passer we have had. 

Kam can handle, pass, drive and his shot will come. And he will be better at it than Zak and Spike this year. 

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 4:52 PM ^

I don't know if you've watched the NBA, but the entire league is tall. KD is a lethal shooter and plays SF.  I don't see anybody, besides the non-human Lebron on this list that would be considered tall by NBA standards.  None of these guys is considered an elite ball handler.

What they are are versatile players who can drive, pass or shoot.  Height is not a huge factor.

You mentioned UMhoops -- here is their list of best PNR players in the big 10:

http://www.umhoops.com/2014/07/16/big-tens-best-pick-roll-players/

Of the 6 guys mentioned: one is 5'9, and two are 6'0.  The talest (Caris) is 6'6.

 

 

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^

- Been saying this for many months - the level of competition he was playing in at Portland was very very low. 

That said, we're going to need him against bigger more athletic teams because Irvin as a 4 isn't sustainable for as long as they have been running at against the undersized teams they have played so far.  Oregon won't be much different, but once they enter conference play it'll be time.  He doesn't bring a ready-made skill (like shooting), which is why I thought Dawkins would emerge ahead of him.  But Dawkins doesn't have the size/athleticism that Kam does.  He'll be fine.

- If you're one of the people who took casual shots at GR3, time to appreciate all the things he did well.  He's the best 4 Beilein ever had including Sims, Smotrycz, Novak and likely will be for at least another few years.

-Drawing conclusions form the Italy stuff was always dubious. 

-The 4th wheel was/is Spike.

-The recruiting rankings do not reflect ready-to-play status or expected contribution.  They reflect a mix between floor and ceiling of college production and nba potential.

NashvilleMaize…

November 21st, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^

Sure GR3 seemed to have the a good grasp of the offense almost right away (at least in comparison to Kam) but Kam could just be a slower/not as quick learner. Like Ace said, the talent seems to be there, those shots will eventually move their consistency from missing to making. Plus GR3 is a totally different type of athelete. I guess I think that the comparison is a bit unfair despite both of them playing the 4 at Michigan and same goes for the rest of the freshmen.

My assessment of the freshmen: man, there's a lot of moments of looking lost but the upside is tantalizing. Reevelauate where they are each game, but give them the grace to take longer than a month or even a year to be dependable in tough game situations. Becuase they are what they are: freshmen. 

michclub19

November 21st, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^

I guess I just don't get why people are freaking out about Caris, Zak, and Walton accounting for 75% of our points?  I'd be curious to see what percentage the top 3 scorers on a college team usually account for.  On top of that, factor in the fact that all 3 expect to be drafted by the NBA as early as 2015 and I can't say I'm surprised that these 3 are expected to carry the load.  While 75% might be a touch high, I would expect the troika to average between 66-70% of our points on the season.  I don't see one minor outlier early in the season as cause for concern.

readyourguard

November 21st, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^

I think Coach B has earned the right to go about his business without everyone freaking out after an unimpressive 9 point victory. I am *positive* none of us are in a position to question his tactics or regimen for developing his players.

gwkrlghl

November 21st, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^

Of course I'd love for us to go undefeated, but Beilein has consistently shown his ability to develop talent and build the team over the season. If "PANIC" means crushing a pretty decent Bucknell team and escaping a pretty decent Detroit team in the first 3 games of the season, I think we'll be ok this year.

Trust Beilein everyone, or have you never watched Michigan Basketball before?

skurnie

November 21st, 2014 at 1:00 PM ^

First game in person this season and I will say, Walton looks even more impressive live than on TV. His fluidity doesn't always come through on TV like it does in person.

You remember that guy in High School who always just looked so smooth compared to the other guys? Like, what he was doing was effortless because he was so much than the guys around him? That's what Walton looks like in person (to me, anyway). 

 

NashvilleMaize…

November 21st, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^

I remember going to a Bulls game and seeing Rose and Noah play. Your comments on Walton remind me of my awe at how Rose moved on the court. And I never fully appreciated Noah's game until I saw the energy and passion that he brought. That stuff for some reason just doesn't translate through a camera lense. 

reanimator

November 21st, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^

I don't like people bringing up the Charlotte game because that was a product of injuries (GR3, Stauskas) and foul trouble (LeVert) as much as it was learning the system. 

Unsalted

November 21st, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

Chatman, and the freshmen 5's need to find their comfort level in the Beilein system so they can play without the burden of thinking. Spike and Max have that comfort level, they know what to do and where to be without having to think. They just act on instinct. That is why the team plays more like a team with them on the floor.

The comfort level only comes with experience, but it will come and it will be good. Let's just hope it comes sooner than later.

Meanwhile I was dreaming of this team with Mitch at the 4 and Jon at the 5. It was a good dream.

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^

But comfort also comes from simplicity and clarity.  Beilein tries to really simplify it for most freshman.  He tends to want them to do one thing and do it well, then build out from that over time.  That's why Nik and Zak and THJ started out as justa-shooters and GR3 started out as justa-dunker/defender.

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^

That transition pass is really nothing special.  You learn to get it to the middle on a 3-man fast break basically the first basketball camp you go to.  Derek doing that is nothing exceptional.  Given where he was and given that no one on Detroit bothered to cover the wing player, this was just hitting the wide open man right in your direct line of vision. 

If Derrick had his back turned, was dribbling the other direction, or something, this would be an excellent pass.

What stood out in that GIF is Derek starting the break. His vision there was far more impressive than on his pass (knowing no one was downcourt immediately downcourt from him as he fought for possession).  The rest was easy.

Actually, I'd say it's more impressive the way Zak knew to sprint to the corner and get his hand up for the easy transition shot.

Max actually helps too. His poor/awkward spacing drew two defenders and created a screen of sorts for Derrick and Zak

Ace

November 21st, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^

...that I perhaps didn't make clear enough, is that from my perch on press row—which provided the ideal view for seeing this play unfold—it was very, very obvious Walton planned to do exactly what he did from the moment he got the ball. He was in total control in transition last night, that's become the norm for him, and he's seeing the court remarkably well.

UMaD

November 21st, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^

Walton's composure and control was uncanny for a freshman.  I think Ennis was even better at this so it took away some of the shine that Derrick should have gotten.  Compared to even Trey he seemed more in control as a freshman than any PG I can remember.  Morris made a lot more highlights but also messed up more often (of course having the supporting cast makes a big difference.)  Anyway,I'm glad to see him build on it this season, as we were hoping for.

This has become a bit of a calling-card for Beilein PGs.  Low turnovers, excellent pace, smart decision-making,  controlled aggression, composure under pressure.  It's an easy thing to take for granted but I hope UofM fans appreciate it because it wasn't so long ago we were forcing Stu Douglass into a PG role, trying LLP, and starting walk-ons at the 1 spot. 

The Morris-Burke-Walton era reminds me of the start of the QB lineage that began with Grbac-Collins-Dreisbach

Tater

November 21st, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^

I expect this team to struggle for awhile and then be a team nobody wants to play in the NCAA Tournament.  They will get pushed around a lot in Big Ten play, where it will take them at least six games to realize that Big Ten refs think they are calling football.  

By the end of the season, they will be sufficiently tough, but they will be fully able to adjust back to the more strict officiating they will see in the Tournament.  As the adage goes, "There's no such thing as a freshman the last few weeks of the season."

MLaw06

November 21st, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^

Thanks, Ace.  Totally agree with you.  When I read MGoBlog, I usually read the forums with the grain of salt that Michigan fans love to extrapolate and are totally bi-polar.  It's either total bliss or gloom and doom!  I appreciate your reasoned views and level-headedness Ace!

bronxblue

November 21st, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^

I thought the team played reasonably well against a tough Detroit team.  I get that the young players have looked a bit overwhelmed and you don't want the burden to always be on your stars, but that's kinda the reason you have those players.  Michigan should be able to rely on their three older stars at times, and maybe this was one of those games.  I have faith they'll have the load lessened as the year progresses.

That said, I do hope that one of the young bigs starts becoming more involved offensively.  This team would be terrifying if they did.

Todd92

November 21st, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^

It will come.

 

They look clueless on D, however.  I mean the basics.  Spacing, switching, footwork.  The coaches have a lot of teaching to do.  But they are really good teachers!

AC1997

November 21st, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^

I was a little surprised that Donnal got yanked.  The play where he missed the layup was a pretty good play by him and I thought he fit well within the offense and had a couple blocks.  I understood Wilson because he looked totally lost and Doyle wasn't a good fit against a 5-guard lineup.  But I wanted to see Donnal get more PT since he's our starter and someone we will need.  When Max had to play any 1-on-1 D he was a liability.  Kam was frustrating at times, but I still think he's getting decent shots that just aren't falling. 

AC1997

November 21st, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^

The last few years we've been an offense built around the ball screen.  I feel like we've barely seen it in these initial games.  Is that because the 4/5 spots are freshmen?  Is that just an early season thing?  Is it because Caris is better in isolation?  The offense felt clunky for long stretches last night, even with the 5 upper-classmen out there.  (Though it went unsaid that we missed at least two threes that were in and out during the first half and the game looks a lot different if those went in.)