I'm like Whoa.
This is edition the second of my wildly experimental basketball UFRs, and I've already gone and made major changes to the methodology. Gone is grading each possession by splitting up just one measly point. Now there's no set point total for a single possession, and instead I hand out anywhere between -3 and 3 points per player, still based on shot creation. The shot chart remains unchanged, and now there's a defensive shot chart—broken down by type of defense—as well. Still no defensive charting by player/possession because good lord I need to eat and sleep on occasion.
For those who missed it, here's my (now-altered) explanation of the charting from the Memphis UFR:
The play-by-play breakdown is relatively simple—it's broken up by possession ... I tell you the offensive set and defense (either man or type of zone, plus whether or not they pressed). FB == fast break. OOB == set from an inbounds play. I am not a basketball coach, and the last time I played competitively was in middle school, so corrections on terminology and the like would be much appreciated. Points do not coincide with made or missed baskets, but instead are awarded on the basis of creating shot opportunities—for instance, a pick to free a man, a cut to get open, or a nice pass may merit
half-points, and creating a bucket on an isolation will earn a full[more] point[s].
Shots are charted separately, and are broken down into three categories: dunk/layup, two-point shots, and three-point shots. They are further categorized by the level of contest from the defense—either no contest, late contest, or heavy contest—which, according to a tidbit from a BTN announcer, passed on to me by Brian, is how John Beilein charts shots.
For explanations of the offensive sets, click over to the Memphis post. I'm still deciding whether or not to put in unit +/- stats—those may come later in the season, as I start getting more used to churning these out on a regular basis. I do include substitution notes, so if some enterprising user has the will, it is possible to figure those out from the chart.
This is still very much a work-in-progress, and I'll be reading up on the Beilein offense over Christmas so that there should be more detail beyond the initial offensive set (which is almost always a 2-1-2) about what play was run. Right now, it's moving too quickly for me to figure it out based upon my current knowledge. So as always please leave suggestions in the comments and I'll look to incorporate them. Even if I'm not implementing suggestions from the Memphis UFR doesn't mean I've ignored them—it might just mean that I didn't have the chance to use them this time around, but I'm always looking back on old comments for reference.
With that, let's move on to BurkeFest 2011:
|After 15 seconds of setting up the offense, Morgan (+1) gets the ball on the right block, dribbles out of a double team, and makes a nice skip pass to Smotrycz. Smotrycz takes a couple hard dribbles towards the lane, drawing two defenders, then passes it out to Burke and immediately sets a screen (+1), which forces a switch. Burke crosses over the defender, blows right by him, and finishes with a layup (+2, dunk/layup, no contest, make).|
|Burke and Morgan run a pick and roll at the top of the key, but Oakland hedges hard on Burke and he has no space to get off a pass. Instead, Burke re-sets and hits Hardaway on the wing. Hardaway drives baseline, pulls up, and tried a contested 15-footer, which he airballs (-1, 2-pt, heavy contest, miss).|
|Burke and Hardaway pass it back and forth for a while before Hardaway drives around a Morgan screen, getting around his man and drawing the defender from the weak side (+1). This leaves Smotrycz wide open in the corner, and Hardaway gives it to him, but the open three misses (3-pt, no contest, miss). Morgan comes down with the offensive rebound, takes a strong dribble into the middle of the paint, and puts up a baby hook that catches the back iron and bounces out (+2, 2-pt, heavy contest, miss).|
|17:34||2-2||4-1 High||Man||Novak||3-pt Make|
|Novak gets the ball on the wing, fakes a shot from three, then drives just inside the FT line. He puts his body into his man and looks as if he's going to try to shoot, drawing the defense in from the perimeter (+2), before kicking out to an open Smotrycz, who buries a three (3-pt, no contest, make).|
|Michigan pushes the pace after an Oakland miss. Burke gets the ball and tries to drive between three guys, then jumps into the lane without a clear idea of where he's going with it. He loses control of the ball and Oakland grabs it (-2 Burke, unforced TO).|
|Smotrycz gets it at the top of the key and drives to the left elbow before picking up his dribble, allowing his man to get right up in his business. Hardaway (+1) cuts along the baseline to give him an option, but Smotrycz's pass is knocked away and stolen (-2 Smotrycz, forced TO). Nice cut by Hardaway, and the pass nearly worked and would've led to a layup, but Smot needs to keep his dribble alive so he's not forced into such a tough play.|
|Novak sets a pick for Hardaway in the lane, then pops out to the key, where he's freed up by a pick for Morgan. Smotrycz, who gets the ball on the right elbow as this is happening, passes to Novak at the top of the key. Novak goes back around Morgan (+1), who picks off his man, and jumps off two feet at the left corner of the free throw line, hitting a nice pullup jumper (+2, 2-pt, late contest, make).|
|Novak runs out on the break after an Oakland miss, dribbling up the middle then going hard for the left corner. Novak (+2) draws three defenders as he does this, then kicks out to a wide-open Hardaway—trailing Novak on the play and finding open space—for three (+1, 3-pt, no contest, make).|
|After another Oakland miss, it's Smotrycz pushing the pace this time, recognizing that Oakland isn't in good position to get back (+1). He makes a nice pass to Novak on the wing; Novak (+1) immediately hits a trailing Hardaway, who's got no one around him at the three-point line. Unfortunately, he can't knock this one down (3-pt, no contest, miss).|
|Burke starts the offense by passing to Morgan at the top of the key; he turns and gives to Smotrycz on the right wing, and Smotrycz dribbles back towards Morgan before dishing it to Hardaway, who's just a few feet to his left. Smotrycz then fakes a screen for Hardaway before doubling back behind Morgan (+1), who frees up Smotrycz with a pick of his own. Smot is all alone on the backdoor cut, takes a nice feed from Hardaway (+1), and hits the easy layup as his defender can't recover (+2, dunk/layup, late contest, make).|
|Beautiful ball movement here as Novak leads the charge off a rebound, driving down the right side before handing off to Burke, who's running back towards the top of the key. Burke (+2) goes around a double pick from Morgan and Smotrycz, draws in the D, then passes over three converging defenders to an open Novak in the corner. One defender scrambles out to Novak, so he makes the extra pass (+1) to Smotrycz, who buries an open three (3-pt, no contest, make).|
|Horford in for Morgan. Hardaway gets the ball on the left elbow and makes a solid skip pass to Burke in the right corner. Burke is well-guarded, but decides to go up for the shot anyway (-1, 3-pt, heavy contest, miss). Not the worst shot in the world, but there were still 23 seconds on the shot clock—I'd rather see Burke pull that one back out.|
|Vogrich in for Hardaway. Michigan cycles the ball around the perimeter for a while until Horford (+1) comes out to run a pick and roll with Burke on the right elbow. Burke gets around the pick but drives into two defenders with a third recovering. Burke (+1) turns and passes to an unguarded Novak in the corner. Money (3-pt, no contest, make).|
|Horford (+1) runs a high screen and roll with Burke (+1) that gets Horford open under the basket, where he draws a foul. Douglass in for Burke. After passing ball around after the inbounds, Smotrycz (-1) drives from the corner and dishes in traffic to Horford, but the pass is low and Horford is well-covered—held ball, possession arrow for Michigan. Horford gets the next inbounds out past the three-point line, hands it off to Novak, who misses a three as the shot clock winds down (Team -1, 3-pt, late contest, miss). Ugly possession after the initial foul.|
|Michigan clears out for Smotrycz on the block, but he's fouled on the floor. Burke in for Novak. Michigan lines up in their normal OOB set, with their two bigs (Smot and Horford) in line with the inbounder (Burke) while the two wings form a box on the opposite side of the lane. The two bigs set a double screen; Douglass is the first man through and he splits between the picks and heads for the basket, while Vogrich trails and goes around both picks for the corner. Burke gives to Vogrich, who gets a good look from about 18 feet but can't connect (Team +1, 2-pt, late contest, miss).|
|Smotrycz dumps it in to Horford on the block, and Horford decides to take a couple power dribbles as the rest of the team clears out. He gets to the middle of the lane but can't finish a lefty baby hook with a hand in his face (2-pt, heavy contest, miss). Good positioning by Horford, but this isn't really in his arsenal—those cancel out, so no plus or minus on this play.|
|After Laval Lucas-Perry misses a layup for Oakland, Burke runs out on the break. Michigan has a three on two with Burke in the middle, Douglass fading out to the 3-pt line on the left, and Smotrycz charging to the basket on the right—great spacing by all three guys here. Burke (+3) pulls up at the FT line, drawing one defender while looking off the other, who heads out for Douglass (+1), jumps as if he's going to shoot, then perfectly hits Smotrycz with a no-look pass for a layup (+1, dunk/layup, no contest, make).|
|Novak in for Smotrycz. Burke gets the ball on the left elbow and dribbles to the middle around a Horford (+1) screen. Burke's man goes under the pick, so he crosses back over, squares up, and drills a three (+2, 3-pt, no contest, make).|
|Douglass takes it up the court after an Oakland miss, and Michigan sets up briefly with two men (Horford and Vogrich) playing down low and three out on the perimeter—not sure if this is by design or a product of a quickly-run possession. Douglass dribbles into the lane and flips it underhand to Burke, who's open but a couple feet outside the NBA 3-pt line. He shoots anyway and misses (-1, 3-pt, late contest, miss).|
|Hardaway in for Vogrich. Hardaway runs a pick and roll with Horford on the left side, and Hardaway tries to drive right, is cut off, and throws a pass three rows into the seats (-3, unforced TO). He had Horford open on the roll but didn't see him. The pass is so poor it's unclear if the intended recipient was Douglass or Burke.|
|Douglass is fouled trying to corral a defensive rebound, and M is in the bonus. He nails both. Hooray for free points.|
|Morgan in for Horford. Novak gets the ball in the right corner and drives to his left, getting into the lane and forcing Morgan's man to switch out on him. Novak makes the right decision and tries to slip a pass under the basket to Morgan, who's now being defended by a shooting guard, but the pass is well wide and goes OOB (Novak -1, unforced TO).|
|Hardaway gets the ball right off the bat on the left wing, tries to drive baseline, and is stymied by two defenders. He leaves his feet and tries to pass to Novak in the opposite corner, but with two hands in his face this is difficult and the pass short-hops in front of Novak, who can't bring it in before it bounces OOB. Hardaway -2, unforced TO.|
|6:32||25-15||2-1-2||Man FC Press||Morgan||Layup Make|
|Burke breaks a one-man press and gets to the top of key as Morgan sets an off-ball screen for Hardaway. Oakland switches on the screen and Hardaway's man is late to recover on Morga, who is already cutting to the basket. Burke swings it to Novak (+1) who immediately hits Morgan under the basket for a layup (+2, dunk/layup, late contest, make).|
|Hardaway brings it up quickly after an Oakland miss and dishes to Burke on the left wing. Burke (+2) blows right by his man and draws the defender guarding Morgan, so he stops on a dime in the paint and slips it to Morgan for what should be an easy layup. Morgan biffs it (dunk/layup, no contest, miss). No minus for Morgan as this charting is about shot creation—his miss shows up in the shooting chart.|
|Vogrich in for Hardaway. Douglass flashes out to the 3-pt line and gets a pass from Vogrich. Stu drives to his right, gets stuck on the baseline, and tries a turnaround J from a few feet outside the lane. Airball (Douglass -2, 2-pt, heavy contest, miss). With 20 seconds on the shot clock, that's not at all what you want.|
|This is close to being a nice play, but not quite. Vogrich gets the ball on the wing and drives right around his man, forcing Oakland's D to rotate and leaving Douglass wide open in the opposite corner. Vogrich sees this and passes to Stu, but the give is high and Stu's foot comes down OOB after he has to jump for the catch. Vogrich -1.|
|Horford and Smotrycz in for Morgan and Douglass. Smot gets the ball on the right sideline and drives to the lane. He tries to rifle a jump-pass to Horford, who is all of four feet away, and the pass ricochets off Horford's hands, then off the backboard, and is stolen (Smotrycz -2, unforced TO).|
|3:25||27-21||2-1-2||Man||Vogrich||Layup Make/FT (0/1)|
|Burke gets a pick from Horford well past the 3-pt line on the left side. Horford (+1) sets a great screen and Burke's man is picked off trying to go over the top; Burke slows as he nears the FT line and sucks in another defender, who was guarding Vogrich in the corner. Burke (+1) dishes to Vogrich, who goes hard to the hoop, hitting a very tough layup over a rotating LLP and drawing a foul in the process (+2, dunk/layup, heavy contest, make).|
|Smotrycz takes the ball on the right wing and drives to the basket. He tries to stop near the FT line, but travels. Derp. -2 Smotrycz, unforced TO.|
|2:17||29-24||2-1-2||Man||Burke||3-pt Miss/OReb/Layup Make|
|Burke runs a pick and roll with Horford up top, his man goes under, and he's got space to shoot a relatively deep three if he wants. Instead, Burke sees Vogrich open with help late-arriving and passes. Vogrich can't knock down the jumper as the defender gets a late hand in his face (+1 Burke, 3-pt, late contest, miss). Horford (+2) hauls in a tough offensive board between three defenders and kicks it out to Burke, who drives past two defenders and hits a quick layup before the D can recover (+2, layup, no contest, make).|
|Burke runs another high screen and roll with Horford, drives, spins, draws a few defenders, then tries to hit a cutting Vogrich at the three-point line. Unfortunately, his pass is behind Vogrich, who can't reel it in as the ball goes off his hands and OOB (-2 Burke, unforced TO). Burke a little wild here.|
|1:07||31-27||-||Man||Burke||2-pt Miss/OReb/Layup Miss|
|Burke pushes the pace off an Oakland miss, drives to his right, and forces a heavily-contested bank from just outside the lane (-1, 2-pt, heavy contest, miss). Horford again brings in the board, but he's in a good deal of traffic, and instead of kicking it out he tries a turnaround lay-in that comes up short (dunk/layup, heavy contest, miss). Horford gets a +1—two in the positive for the tough rebound, one negative for forcing the shot.|
|0:44||31-29||2-1-2||Man||Burke||3-pt Miss/OReb/FT (1/2)|
|McLimans and Akunne in for Horford and Vogrich. Burke hangs around the perimeter, running the shot clock down to ten, which is just fine given the situation. He then steps up to the 3-pt line, makes one crossover dribble, and chucks up a shot with a hand right in his grill, missing everything but the backboard (-2, 3-pt, heavy contest, miss). Smotrycz (+2) comes up with the rebound, goes up strong, and draws a shooting foul.|
|Starters in for the start of the second half. After not getting anything going early in the clock, Burke resets the offense and calls a new play. He passes off to Smotrycz, who gives to Novak at the top of the key. Morgan (+1) sets a downscreen on Hardaway's defender, freeing up THJ on the left wing. Novak gives, and Hardaway (+1) is able to take a dribble inside the arc and rise up for an 18-foot jumper (Team +1, 2-pt, late contest, make).|
|Burke dribbles towards the left corner, handing the ball off to Hardaway, who's coming back behind Burke to the top of the key. Hardaway has space for a deep-ish three and puts it up, but misses (3-pt, heavy contest, miss). Tempted to minus Hardaway here since his defender got there to contest the shot, but his high-rising jumper really makes the contest moot. Plus, nice to see him getting involved after a quiet first half.|
|18:40||34-32||2-1-2||Man FC Press||Hardaway||3-pt Make|
|Hardaway has to re-set the offense at the top of the key with around 20 on the shot clock. He calls for a pick from Morgan (+1), gets good penetration into the lane, then kicks to Smotrycz in the corner. Smot nails the three (+2 Hardaway, 3-pt, late contest, make).|
|Novak gets a pass from Burke and drives baseline, but stalls in the corner, where he's doubled by Smotrycz's man. Smot flares out to the 3-pt line, where Novak passes to him. A rotating defender flies by in a futile effort to steal the pass, while Smot's original man buys a pass fake from Smot and runs out to Burke. Smot is left wide open despite still holding the ball, and he drills a three (+2, 3-pt, no contest, make).|
|After an off-ball foul on Oakland, Hardaway comes free on an inbounds play (+1 Team) but can't knock down a 15-footer (2-pt, late contest, miss). Morgan flies in between two guys for the rebound but can't keep his pivot foot when he lands. Just a tough break for Morgan, as he had two defenders draped all over him. He gets a +1 for the board.|
|After Oakland misses a three, Hardaway (+3) gets the rebound and immediately takes off. He threads a perfect bounce pass to a streaking Morgan, who dunks with authoritay (+1, dunk/layup, no contest, make).|
|Morgan (+1) again sets an off-ball downscreen for Hardaway, who flashes out for a look from three as he gets a pass from Burke. Hardaway gets a decent look, but can't knock it down (+1, 3-pt, late contest, miss).|
|Smotrycz gets the ball on the wing and drives hard with his left hand to the FT line, drawing weakside help from Hardaway's defender. Hardaway (+1) dives for the basket and Smot (+2) feeds him a nice lefty bounce pass. Hardaway is met at the rim by two defenders and fouled.|
|Burke gets a screen from Morgan and tries to drive baseline, but he gets cornered near the basket, jumps, and has his pass to Hardaway in the corner stolen easily (-2 Burke, forced TO).|
|Smotrycz runs out after an Oakland miss and this is a semi-transition possession. He dribbles towards the Michigan bench, and Hardaway takes a jab-step towards the basket, then cuts behind Smot and takes a handoff. Hardaway gets into the lane and splits two defenders, but can't hit a tough underhand layup with two defenders contesting (+1, dunk/layup, heavy contest, miss). Morgan came open when his defender rotated onto THJ, but it would've taken a great pass to get it to him under the basket.|
|Hardaway drives to his right but is stymied by a double team, so he throws a skip pass to Burke on the left elbow. Burke drives into the paint, is temporarily stopped, but pulls a ridiculous between-the-legs crossover that gets him into the lane and draws three defenders. Burke (+3) kicks it out to a now wide-open Hardaway, who drains the three (3-pt, no contest, make).|
|Burke has to re-set the offense after they can't get anything going early in the clock (Team -1). He waits, gets a screen up top from Morgan (+1), and blows by two defenders into the paint, where he pulls up for a running floater before help can arrive (+2, 2-pt, late contest, make). At this moment I'm now praying Burke stays in college for longer than two years. These last two plays were star caliber.|
|12:45||48-48||2-1-2||Man||Morgan||3-pt Miss/OReb/FT (1/2)|
|Burke (+1) drives to his right, hesitates, then finds room under the basket, where he kicks out to an open Hardaway in the corner. Hardaway can't connect (3-pt, no contest, miss), but Morgan (+2) jumps between two defenders to pull down the rebound. He pivots, goes back up for a layup, and is fouled in the process.|
|12:07||49-49||2-1-2||3-2 Zone||Burke||3-pt Make|
|Douglass and Horford in for Smotrycz and Morgan. Oh, hey, a zone! Oakland decides to put three guys up top instead of the more common 2-3. They don't come out far enough, however, as Burke is able to rise up from NBA distance and drill a triple (+2, 3-pt, no contest, make). If Burke can hit that shot, I'm all for him taking it given the complete lack of pressure from the D.|
|Surprise! Oakland abandons the zone. Novak and Hardaway run by each other at the 3-pt line and Novak hands off, but Hardaway drops the ball and LLP steals it (-2 Hardaway). THJ was moving a little too quickly for his own good and didn't make sure to secure the ball—the pass wasn't bad by any stretch.|
|Horford (+1) with another off-ball pick for Hardaway on the weak side frees him up for an open look from three, which he hits after getting the pass from Burke (+1, 3-pt, no contest, make). THJ and whoever is playing center are just abusing the man defense on the weak side—that's the third time they've created an open look using the same play this half. Gotta think Beilein saw something there.|
|Hardaway and Horford (+1) run a high pick and roll at the top of the key. Hardaway's defender goes under the screen, so he pulls up and drains a three (+1, 3-pt, no contest, make). Oakland made that one easy for THJ, especially with him on a bit of a shooting streak at the moment.|
|Burke steals an Oakland inbounds pass near midcourt and Douglass is already streaking up the middle of the court ahead of everyone. Burke (+1) floats a nice pass to Stu, who hits an uncontested layup (+1, dunk/layup, no contest, make). Stu's point is for getting up the court so quickly, not for making an open layup, FTR.|
|Hardaway is fouled by LLP going for a defensive rebound and M is in the bonus. He misses the front end of a one-and-one.|
|Smotrycz in for Novak. Burke runs a high pick and roll with Morgan (+1), his defender goes under, and Burke pulls up and hits a three (+2, 3-pt, no contest, make).|
|Burke gets another high screen from Morgan and drives hard to the left, drawing an extra defender as weakside help comes to cover Morgan. Burke (+2) uses a slight hesitation move to get himself space then hits Douglass on the wing with a jump-pass. Douglass collects the pass, which was a little low, and hits an open three (+1, 3-pt, no contest, make).|
|Vogrich in for Hardaway. Burke has to drive wide around a pick from Morgan, but gets around the corner and draws three collapsing defenders as he nears the lane. Burke (+2) kicks out to Smotrycz, who pump-fakes a three with the D recovering, drives around a man, then hits a tough double-clutch runner as he gets into the paint (+2, 2-pt, heavy contest, make).|
|High pick and roll between Morgan and Burke, again. Burke (+2) gets penetration, again. This time he hits a rolling Morgan for an open layup (+2, layup, no contest, make). Oakland can't stop Burke, nor, at this point, can they hope to contain him.|
|Douglass (+1) initially has a 2-on-2 fast break off a long rebound, but smartly pulls out and resets the offense. Burke again runs a high P&R with Morgan, but as he drives to the lane he loses the ball out of bounds (-1, unforced TO). Only Trey Burke can stop Trey Burke.|
|6:46||70-61||2-1-2||Man FC Press||Morgan||2-pt Make|
|Smotrycz gets the ball on the wing, tries to drive off a pick from Morgan, but can't get any penetration, so he gives to Morgan a couple feet outside the paint. Morgan squares up, pivots in a complete circle to give himself space, and calmly knocks down a jumper (+2, 2-pt, late contest, make). If he can consistently hit that shot, I'll be very excited about his offensive development.|
|Burke is fouled going after a long defensive rebound and goes to the line. He hits the first and misses the second. Thanks for the free point, Oakland.|
|So, this Burke kid. This time he stays patient after Oakland hedges hard on a—guess what?—high pick and roll with Morgan, gets another screen from Smotrycz, and pulls a quick crossover to split right between the two defenders. Burke (+3) ends up with all five Oakland players surrounding him in the lane, so he kicks out to Douglass, who can't knock down the open three (3-pt, no contest, miss).|
|Akunne in for Burke. After the ball cycles around for a while, Akunne (+1) eventually gets it on the left elbow and throws a solid skip pass to Douglass in the opposite corner. Stu gets a good look, but misses the three (3-pt, late contest, miss). Morgan (+2) pulls in another tough offensive board between two guys. Eventually, Akunne (-2, forced TO) gets the ball out top and just has it stolen from him, but...|
|...Smotrycz steals the ball right back, and M gets a fresh shot clock. He passes to Akunne, who awkwardly dribbles to his left and gets picked clean (-2, forced TO). Akunne just doesn't look comfortable handling the ball, to say the least.|
|4:39||73-67||?||Man||Douglass||3-pt Miss/OReb/FT (1/2)|
|Lots of confusion at the start of this possession as Akunne and Douglass go to the same spot on the floor, with Stu yelling at Akunne and pointing for him to go to the wing. He does so, and ends up getting an open look as Hardaway (+2) comes off a pick from Morgan and kicks out, but Akunne can't connect (3-pt, no contest, miss). Smotrycz grabs the long board (+1) and passes out to Douglass, who's now running the point. Stu (-1) gets trapped near midcourt, but is bailed out by a foul call and goes to the line.|
|4:04||74-67||4-1 High||Man||Burke||3-pt Make|
|Burke in for Akunne. Burke runs a high screen with Morgan, then doubles back and takes another pick from Smotrycz (+1) that frees him up to drive to the baseline. Burke (+1) starts to fall OOB but makes a last-ditch pass to Hardaway, who drains a killer corner three (3-pt, heavy contest, make). Dagger.|
|Smotrycz (+2) comes up with a steal, takes a couple dribbles, and threads a fantastic bounce pass ahead to Douglass, who's out in front of everyone. Stu dunks, which is always fun (+1, dunk/layup, no contest, make).|
|3:04||79-69||4-1 High||Man||Burke||3-pt Make|
|Burke, Morgan (+1), high pick and roll. Burke (+2) finds space on the right side, drives to the lane, and kicks out to an open Stu for three (3-pt, no contest, make).|
|2:27||82-69||4-1 High||Man||Burke||Layup Make|
|Burke kills clock until there are just six seconds left to shoot, drives left from a good five feet outside the NBA 3-pt line, and blows by LLP for a driving layup (+2, dunk/layup, late contest, make). Charting ceases as this becomes free throw city and M doesn't attempt another field goal.|
TREY BURKE LIKE WHOA
Indeed. It's a little easier to do this as the point guard, but he's the focal point of this offense, and right now he's having no trouble carrying that burden. Outside of a few freshman mistakes—usually when he tries to do too much—Burke is playing within himself and making a lot of fantastic plays in the process.
JOHN BEILEIN LIKE WHOA
Yep. Much like Memphis, Oakland played almost exclusively man-to-man, and Dylan threw in this tidbit about how the Grizzlies game-planned for Michigan:
At the press conference after the game on Saturday, Oakland coach Greg Kampe said the Grizzlies’ game plan was to limit the back-door cuts and make the Wolverines beat them from behind the arc.
Live by the sword, die by the sword, I guess. There weren't too many plays where Michigan freed up an open cutter to the basket, but that's mostly because they were busy pick-and-rolling Oakland's defense to death. With Michigan raining in open threes (more on that after the shot chart), many created by Oakland playing soft on screens instead of following over the top, you'd think Kampe would've made an adjustment, but none came. I guess there was one 3-2 zone, which in theory should limit three-pointers, but they played so soft that Burke calmly drilled a three anyway. After that, zone abandoned, and Michigan resumed death by picks. Fantastic game-plan by Beilein, and great execution by the team.
Big men like whoa?
You seem slightly less enthused, self, and I'm not surprised—I'm a little confused, too. As you'll see below, both Morgan and Horford come out with huge positive scores and barely anything in the negative, mostly thanks to both having solid days on the glass and being major parts of the pick-a-palooza. I'm still trying to figure out what a big man can do to earn a negative in this offense aside from turning the ball over—since they rarely get the ball in the post, there's not many opportunities to force bad shots, and otherwise they're mostly setting screens and getting in position to grab offensive rebounds. Suggestions, please?
Way to pawn off all the work on the readers.
Shut up. On to the...
[All credit to a2_electricboogaloo for the above]
|Burke||43||12||31||Holy Horton, we got ourselves a point guard.|
|Hardaway||16||8||8||Quiet first half, some bad turnovers, but mostly solid. Needs to find a way to get more involved early, though foul trouble played a role in this game.|
|Novak||9||1||8||Extremely sound. I agree with Brian—I'd like to see him get the ball more. Other than Burke and Hardaway, he's the one guy who can consistently create and knock down jumpers from inside the arc when he's got the ball.|
|Smotrycz||17||7||10||Very nice game for Smot. Still not great handling the ball, but he's creating more offense for himself and also doing a good job of hitting the glass. His slow, awkward drives are still slow and awkward, but much more effective these days.|
|Morgan||24||1||23||Product of tons of good screens and some nice work on the boards. Going to have to figure out what to do about tiny negatives for big men—Morgan did not have twice the impact as Smotrycz, though he still played well.|
|Douglass||5||3||2||Relative non-factor in the shot creation department. Dunked.|
|Horford||10||1||9||More death by screens.|
|Akunne||1||4||-3||Please, please, no more putting him at the point.|
|Vogrich||2||1||1||Starting to show ability to get to the basket and finish. Quiet day otherwise.|
|McLimans||0||0||0||Nothing of note in one minutes of PT.|
|Team||3||2||1||Some nice inbounds plays, and I really could've added a lot more here for killing Oakland with the off-ball screens.|
|TOTAL||130||40||90||Again, no context for these numbers, but Michigan had a very strong offensive game while playing at a high tempo, mostly thanks to Oakland pushing the pace like crazy.|
Those overall numbers are wildly in the positive, obviously, but I think as we go along (assuming I stay with this method, which I rather like on first glance), that will be the norm, though maybe not to such a high degree—basketball offenses score a lot of points, and usually it's missed shots that keep a team from scoring on most possessions, not poor plays. Since this is about shot creation, with shooting taken out of the equation, the numbers should be positive or something went very wrong.
Also, Michigan scored 1.25 points per possession against Oakland—the offense was lethal, and the numbers reflect that, at least as far as I can tell without another reference point. The only major knock against Michigan's offense this game would be turnovers—the Wolverines had a 23.7% turnover rate, which is not so good—but that was more than made up for by the team rebounding over 27% of their misses and also getting to the line with relative frequency.
As for individual players not covered in the previous section, I'm really impressed with the improvements in Zach Novak's game. He still has all of the grit, but he's also turned into a smart distributor—this game: eight assists, one turnover—and while he doesn't take many shots, when he does, they're good looks. Especially in situations where Hardaway is struggling or off the floor, I'd like to see the offense run through Novak a little more.
Smotrycz had the most impressive game statistically, scoring 20 points on just eight shots and hauling in nine rebounds, and he seems to be getting more comfortable in the offense. As you'll see below, he took advantage of a lot of open looks, but he got into the lane and was able to hit the two contested shots he took—tough to ask for much more from a sophomore big with limited athleticism.
Shall we go to the shooting chart? You're writing too much.
Yes I am, and it's Friday, dammit. Shooting chart (now with player and team totals so it's actually useful!).
|Hardaway||-||-||0/1 (1F)||-||1/2||0/1||4/6||0/1||1/2||4/6||1/3||1/4 (1F)||6/13|
|Smotrycz||1/1||1/1||(1F)||-||-||1/1||3/4||-||-||4/5||1/1||1/1 (1F)||6/7 (1F)|
|Morgan||2/3||1/1||(1F)||-||1/1||0/1||-||-||-||2/3||2/2||0/1 (1F)||4/6 (1F)|
|Vogrich||-||-||1/1 (1F)||-||0/1||-||-||0/1||-||-||0/2||1/1 (1F)||1/3 (1F)|
|TOTAL||7/8||3/3||1/3 (4F)||-||4/6||1/6||13/18||1/6||1/4||20/26||8/15||3/13 (4F)||31/54|
Almost exactly half of Michigan's shots were of the "no contest" variety, and all of those were either dunks/layups or three-pointers. This is exactly what you want to see out of John Beilein's offense, which is predicated on creating either open layups or good looks for three points. The Wolverines shot the lights out—their 71.3 eFG% is the third-highest in any game of the Beilein era, according to Dylan—and it's easy to see why when you look at the above.
Interestingly, most of the team's bad shots came on non-layup two-pointers, and looking back at the play-by-play, that's mostly because those shots came outside the framework of the offense. Of note: no single player took more than one heavily contested two-pointer, which says to me that this team is well-coached, though we already knew that. Same goes for tough dunk/layup attempts (on which M drew more fouls than they had missed shots), and only Burke and Hardaway jacked up threes while being heavily guarded—if I'm going to pick two guys to do that, it's those two.
Can we see some videos already?
Sure thing. Here's Trey Burke being totally awesome:
As Greg Kelser was saying before I cut off the clip, that's just a perfectly-run fast break, especially by Burke. I don't have much analysis here other than saying that, well, that guy doesn't look like a freshman point guard, even with the higher-than-ideal turnover rate. All three players run this perfectly, with Stu fading off to the perimeter to stretch out the defense, Smotrycz going hard in the paint, and Burke using the threat of his pull-up J to freeze the defense and allow him to dish for an easy assist.
More Burke ridiculousness, you say? Here you go:
That elicited a rather loud "WUT?" when I watched it live, and I'm still not really over this—that's just a sweet move in traffic that takes a bogged-down play and turns it into an opportunity for a wide-open three. Burke doesn't have the size of Darius Morris, which allowed Morris to bully his way into the lane with regularity, but he's quicker and those handles let him do many of the same things Morris did, just in a different fashion. He used that same crossover—though not between the legs—to slice between two defenders jumping out on a pick and create a wide open three for Douglass when the entire defense freaked and collapsed into the lane.
As for general Beilein scheme stuff, check out how much Novak moves on this play, which ends in him knocking down a pull-up jumper:
He starts at the top of the key, cuts hard to the hoop, sets a screen, pops back out the top of the key, goes over a pick from Morgan, and gets himself a good shot. This is what Beilein's offense is all about, especially against man defense—eventually, lots of cuts and screens should free up an open shooter, whether it's the guy with the ball or some moving away from the play.
What about the defense?
Ah, yes, there is now stuff on the defense, though admittedly not nearly as much as the offense. The main feature I'm introducing is the defensive shot chart, which is the same as the offensive shot chart but broken down by type of defense:
|Man||3/4||2/4 (1F)||3/6 (2F)||2/3||1/2 (2F)||1/11 (2F)||2/6||2/6||3/6||7/13||5/12 (3F)||7/23 (4F)||19/48 (7F)|
|Fast Break||-||-||1/2 (1F)||-||(1F)||-||-||0/1||-||-||0/1 (1F)||1/2 (1F)||1/3 (2F)|
|TOTAL||3/4||2/4 (1F)||4/8 (3F)||2/3||1/2 (3F)||1/11 (2F)||2/7||2/7||2/6||7/14||5/13 (4F)||8/25 (5F)||20/52 (9F)|
Turnovers: Man—8 (2 forced, 6 unforced), 1-3-1—0, Fast Break—2 (1 forced, 1 unforced)
This doesn't match up exactly with the stats from the box score (which has Oakland going 26/59), mostly because Oakland rained in 11 points in garbage time and I was done charting at that point. But yeah, check out that shot distribution versus Michigan's and you get the story of this game—Michigan was able to generate a lot of open looks, and Oakland was forced into taking a lot of tough shots.
Also, as you can see, Michigan spent almost the entire game in man, throwing out the 1-3-1 on one possession when the Grizzlies made their big run at the end of the first half. They also did a good job of getting back in transition, as Oakland wasn't able to generate many good shots even when out on the break. Some might look at the box score, see that Michigan gave up 80 points, and think that they didn't play good D, and I think those hypothetical people would be wrong. Oakland was hanging almost exactly at one point per possession until garbage time got them up to 1.09 ppp.
No lengthy breakdown on individual defenders yet, as this is long enough already, but off the cuff I was impressed with Smotrycz—who came up with two steals, had seven defensive rebounds, and only recorded two fouls, which have been a bugaboo this year—and the interior duo of Morgan and Horford, who didn't let much open up inside the lane. Burke needs to learn that he doesn't have to contest every shot, as he got into some unnecessary foul trouble, and Hardaway allowed Laval Lucas-Perry to blow right by him for an and-one, which was kinda embarrassing.
Burke, of course. Other than him, Smotrycz had a great day shooting and was solid all-around, Novak was very efficient, and THJ managed to score 18 second-half points after early foul trouble. Also, John Beilein for coaching circles around the other guy, again.
First-half Hardaway only had three points while amassing two fouls—he's got to snap out of that habit before Big Ten season. Eso Akunne should probably not play point guard again. I'm getting a little worried about Carlton Brundidge, because while Akunne has more experience, he looked lost at times in the offense and is completely out of his element as a primary ballhandler. Could Brundidge really be worse as a third-string (behind Douglass), couple-minutes-a-game point guard?
Nah, I think I've pretty much covered it all, though I'm sure I'll be proven wrong about that in the comments. Fire away, people. Let me know what you think of this.
I'm like Whoa.
Is your name really "Ace?" I mean, who does that?
This is my son "Awesome."
Very ballsy, Ace's Mom.
to see if it was accurate I just skimmed it to make sure Stu was near zero or in the negative.
Just kidding, kind of. I love the guy and how committed he is to the program, but I am sick of yelling at him for taking matters into his own hands and frequently inopportune times. We have players who can do that - he isn't one of them.
I think Beilein has noticed as Stu's minutes have trended downward significantly after the UVA game.
Yes, Douglass does occasionally take some really bad shots, but I think you're being a little harsh on him. If anything, what I noticed doing these charts is how often he's a peripheral player, and he knows that he has a limited role when he's not running the point. For the most part, he spreads the floor and works to get open on the perimeter, which is exactly what he should be doing, but it doesn't give him much of a chance to look good in these charts because he's not doing the work to create shots.
I think we notice his mistakes more because they make up a larger percentage of his touches, and there aren't eye-popping plays to offset them because that's not what he does, but that's because of his role more than anything else. It'd be nice if he was a little more reliable as a spot-up shooter, but for the most part I think he's doing rather well—he was never going to be a star.
I don't want to be angry with him, and now I have rational explanation that I can use.
Still, I can't promise I won't be making an angry comment if he decides to launch a long three early in the clock when we are down six with four minutes to go. Too often that missed shot leads to a breakout and puts us in a deeper hole.
Are you going to do defensive UFRs? I ask because I see above, for example, that you simply wrote "Smot.... stole it back" which is a very significant play yet he got 0 "points" for it. I realize this kind of thing gets unwieldly, but turnovers and transitions would be interesting and point-heavy situations to assess (filling on the break, wise backouts, secondary breaks, taking charges, etc.)
Eventually, I think so. Right now I'm still trying to get a handle on the offense—it takes me a good 3-4 days right now to put these together, and I have recruiting to cover, too. Doing the defense in the same detail would just about double that timeframe. When I can start rolling through these more quickly (the formatting stuff is still an issue, otherwise this would've been up yesterday), I'll start charting defense, but I can't make any promises about when that will be.
I don't know that much about basketball but it seems like sometimes (that second crossover video) he comes very close to palming/carrying. I recall somewhat that being a point of contention last year in the B1G. It seems that is something that takes getting used to for a lot of younger players as it isn't called much in H.S. Anyone else seeing that?
While it may technically be carrying/travelling, it's rarely called unless it's blatant. Kind of like holding in football: it called be called on nearly every play, but it's usually only called when obvious.
I could not be happier that that picture of Brian exists. I look forward to many years of hilarity on this site directly related to the picture.
That is NOT Brian who was in the photobomb thread. It is obviously his alter ego who's always talking to Brian-prime and asking him questions and such. Thus the "Chart? Chart." The large mouthed one is the snarky one who raves about things. Demure, GQ Brian is the other one.
is silky.....kid is nuts, love watching these guys play.
I have been begging for a site that covers Michigan basketball In depth since the early days of rivals. I give Dylan a ton of credit for his site, but he doesn't do what you just did. Thanks for giving Stu some props. His athleticism is grossly underrated, and there are few things In sports that make my heart soar more than a Stu Douglas dunk. The Oakland fans behind us were getting seriously frustrated, shouting "Good Lord cover#1" It was a good time.
I think you have wildly positive numbers because Michigan scored 90 points while shooting very well. The defensive UFR would probably give you the negatives you are looking for.
Try UFRing the Virginia game and I bet you will see some negatives.
Ace, I appreciate the hard work you've done here. That said, here are my strong recommendations (I'll skip the weak ones as you have enough on your plate):
1) Defense needs to be way, way more emphasized. If you're wondering what basketball things to check for on D, here are some ideas: is our guy beaten on a cut or does he bump the cutter, is he beaten off the dribble, does he help. does he help the helper, does he front a guy when he should in the post (could be hard to know when Coach wants this), is he in position on a zone, does he fill in or rotate properly in a zone, does he box out (regardless of whether he's getting the rebound or not), does he get a hand in the face on the shot, does he make a dumb or a smart foul, does he close out well, does he force a pass, does he deny penetration, does he deny his man the ball. You don't have to have a column on the chart for each one of those. Just watch for them, and if a player does one of them, give him a +1-3 or a -1-3 accordingly. Team RPS things to watch for are on D include do we give up an easy bucket off a time out or does our defense confuse them, do we get caught in a mismatch, do we force them to go to their second option because of a mismatch or change in D, do we do offense/defense substitutions well in time-and-score situations.
2) On offense, plays that we run are much, much more important than the initial set.
3) I'd focus more on individual players on each possession and things that go beyond the stats, like how he cuts without the ball, does he set a solid screen, does he come off the screen well, does he crash the board hard, etc. Also I'd include a Did we win? column for whether or not the offense or defense was successful, regardless of whether or not a fluky shot went in.
I'll 2nd the comments on the need of a defensive score to go with the offensive score.
Without some kind of emphasis on the result, it is hard to put the numbers into any context right now. My initial assumption was that the UFR would be more like a re-allocated + / - calculation that would assign credit and blame beyond just being on the court. Since you have gone in a different direction with this, I'm still struggling to find any meaning in these numbers. I'm hoping that adding the defensive half would at least normalize the numbers a little bit.
But whatever you finally settle on, I guess that we will have some comparative data across games once the methodology stablizes. Thanks for all of the hard work.
Stu will be just fine when his shot starts falling. Right now it's frustrating because he can't make a wide open look. But every year he has at least one game where he goes off for 4 or five triples. I pray it's against MSU or Ohio.
One of the most information rich sites ever, just took it up a notch. Didn't know there was any room for that.
Like a lot of people on here, I am football first, but I enjoyed this every bit as much as the football UFRs. We already know those are total genius.
I agree on adding emphasis to the defense, but man this is getting me revved up for conference play. Super job.
Holy wah, bball ufr
This is incredible and a huge addition to the site. What a huge chore, but you've handled it with panache! Can't wait to see how this develops and becomes an integral part of the site for years to come. I know it had to be a crazy amount of effort, but please know that it is greatly appreciated. Just like with Brian's articles - I now feel more informed about the team I love due to your piece - and that's what we all come to a blog looking for.
My suggestion for bringing scores for the bigs into parity would be to de-emphasize screens substantially, like give them a +0.5 rather than +1. It rewards them but a screen is probably not as important as an accurate assist pass.
Doing a +/- for each player would be enormously useful, albeit a ton of work. It's the one piece of data that would be the most informative IMO.
Again, thanks for putting in the effort -- you're adding a lot of valuable data here.
I can't wait for the next one and too see how they evolve. As far as the bigs getting too many pluses I think if you study pick-and-roll offense enough you can find place where the big screws up and sets a bad pick, or doesn't slip the pick when he should, or pops when he should roll, etc. . . I would also think that whether or not a big is fighting for position or settling on catching the ball too far from the basket could also play into things.