Attrition Watch: December 2015 Comment Count

Brian

I haven't done one of these in over a year. If you want a last glimpse at the 2009 class, hit up the 2014 preseason version of this post. You would be surprised that you might—that was a good class. Italics below indicate a contributor. Bold is for a player who is a multi-year starter. Sometimes the latter is a projection for guys with eligibility remaining. Yellow stars are for draftees, purple moons for All Big Ten players, and silver goats for All-Americans.

2010

One last look at the class of doom.

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Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal

Did Not Take Fifth Year(2): Richard Ash, Jordan Paskorz

Played Out Eligibility(7): Jeremy Jackson, Drew Dileo, Jibreel Black, Courtney Avery, Devin Gardner, Jake Ryan, Will Hagerup

Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal

Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones

Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace

Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins

Seven out of 26 kids played out their eligibility. One kid who left, Pitt safety Ray Vinopal, did anything after his departure. The kids who played out their eligibility saw one guy drafted. This was a bad class and Rich Rodriguez should feel bad.

2011

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Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada

This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.

Played out eligibility(6): Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Delonte Hollowell, Desmond Morgan, Matt Wile(H).

Early NFL draft entry(1): Frank Clark(H)*.

Early Fancy Job entry(1): Jack Miller.

Transferred for PT (6): Tamani Carter(H), Thomas Rawls(H), Justice Hayes(H), Keith Heitzman(H), Russell Bellomy(H), Blake Countess.

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones

Injury (2): Antonio Poole(H), Chris Bryant.

Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.

Transitional classes are rarely any good and this one wasn't. Hoke's late pickups did include two current Seattle Seahawks, but since Thomas Rawls had to transfer to get on the field that rather takes the luster off. Fifth-year departures complicate our "transfer for playing time" category: Blake Countess was a two-year starter at Michigan and started at Auburn this year.

This is a 20-man class with seven major contributors, which isn't great. Given the cloud Rodriguez was recruiting under and the extraordinarily brief window Hoke was provided after The Process completed, it could have been a lot worse.

*[Clark of course got booted from the team after a domestic violence incident and could be filed under Not Being Nice. In terms of his ability to contribute to the team, early entry—which was coming either way—is more accurate.]

2012

25 players. Seniors and redshirt juniors, if they're still around. As of April 2014 this class had lost just one player, Kaleb Ringer.

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Devin Funchess, Willie Henry, Kyle Kalis

Enrolled: Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Kyle Kalis, Blake Bars, Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden, Willie Henry, Matt Godin, Tom Strobel, Chris Wormley, Terry Richardson, Allen Gant, Jeremy Clark.

Played out eligibility: Jarrod Wilson, Sione Houma, AJ Williams, Mario Ojemudia, Joe Bolden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross.

Early NFL draft entry(1): Devin Funchess

Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.

Transferred for PT (1): Ondre Pipkins

Academics/Not Being Nice (1): Dennis Norfleet.

With Ryan Glasgow a bonus walk-on this class is the spine of what was, OSU excepted, one of the best defenses in the country. Only two guys got added to the attrition list, and it was clear that Ondre Pipkins was inclined to stay before clashing with Harbaugh about his health. Pipkins will have a year at Texas Tech to show what he can do.

This class also provided Michigan's starting wide receivers, three-fifths of its offensive line, a boring safety, and a couple of linebackers. Hoke's first full class is going to see 22 of 25 players have their careers end successfully. This is an excellent class that drove Michigan to 9-3 once the glaring hole in it—quarterback—was resolved.

2013

27 men.

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Jourdan Lewis, Derrick Green, Logan Tuley-Tillman

Enrolled: Jourdan Lewis, Derrick Green, Patrick Kugler, Dymonte Thomas, Shane Morris, David Dawson, Henry Poggi, Mike McCray, Taco Charlton, Jake Butt, De'Veon Smith, Ben Gedeon, Maurice Hurst, Delano Hill, Wyatt Shallman, Jaron Dukes, Ross Douglas, Channing Stribling, Khalid Hill, Da'Mario Jones, Reon Dawson, Scott Sypniewski.

Injury(1): Chris Fox.

Transferred for PT (2): Dan Samuelson, Kyle Bosch

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Logan Tuley-Tillman, Csont'e York

Just five guys have departed, and two of the linemen had things that were just fate: Fox blew his knee out in an un-repairable way, and Kyle Bosch was in a bad place.

This class is going to experience some additional attrition after the season, all of it for playing time reasons, but with Jake Butt, Jourdan Lewis, and Maurice Hill leading a dozen-plus contributors it is another quality class.

It is again notable for the hole at QB, where Michigan went with a mono-afflicted Shane Morris after forgoing one in 2012 and taking Russell Bellomy at the last minute in 2011. The failure of this OL class to break through is the other major disappointment. Of the six enrollees only two remain and neither started this year.

2014

16 men.

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Jabrill Peppers, Ian Bunting, Brady Pallante

Enrolled: Jabrill Peppers, Drake Harris, Bryan Mone, Mason Cole, Lawrence Marshall, Chase Winovich, Freddy Canteen, Ian Bunting, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Wilton Speight, Maurice Ways, Noah Furbush, Brandon Watson, Jared Wangler, Brady Pallante.

Transferred for PT(1): Michael Ferns.

Ferns departed shortly after Hoke was fired, before Michigan could even hire Harbaugh. That looms rather large for next year. It's still early days for this class but it's looking rather sketchy, with just two guys making a major impact so far.

On the other hand those guys are Peppers and Cole.

Comments

Everyone Murders

December 7th, 2015 at 3:53 PM ^

Speaking of science, science teaches us that fuck lions are comprised of 99.9% swag.  So if they have substantially elevated swag levels (and I take you at your word on this), they are getting bigger and even more likely to discourage someone coming to fuck with you.  Like American Lion (Pantera leo atrox) size. 

That's a lot of fuck lion.

Wolverine 73

December 7th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^

Looking forward to the year I can read one of these and all the guys will have been recruited by Harbaugh over a period of years and not weeks, and there will be no gaping holes in critical positions in any class.

Tuebor

December 7th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^

Hoke's QB recruiting was atrocious. An Iowa cast off is only 222 yards away from having the second most single season passing yards in school history. Hoke was lucky that RRod left him Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner. Without those 2 the Hoke era would have been even worse.

Just look at what Hoke's QB recruits have done.
Combined they have a 3.76 YPA, and 1:10 TD to INT ratio.
Bellomy - 23 Attempts, 4 completions, 46 yards, 0 TDs, 4 Ints.
Morris - 87 Attempts, 43 completions, 389 yards, 0 TDs, 5 Ints.
Speight - 25 Attempts, 9 completions, 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Malzone - Redshirting

There is no doubt that John O'Korn is going to start next year for Michigan and Gentry will likely back him up. I'd be shocked if a Hoke QB recruit ever starts a game for Michigan under Harbuagh.

Tuebor

December 7th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^

Combined Robinson and Gardner had an 8.2 YPA and a 1.31:1 TD (93) to INT (71) ratio and a 58.8% completion rate.  I combined the two because their career stats are almost identical which really surprised me.

Rudock has a 7.65 YPA and a 1.89:1 TD (17) to INT (9) ratio and a 63.9% completion rate

Brady had a 7.48 YPA and a 1.76:1 TD (30) to INT (17) ratio and a 61.9% completion rate

Navarre had a 6.79 YPA and a 3.5:1 TD (70) to INT (20) ratio and a 56.1% completion rate

Henne had a 7.00 YPA and a 2.35:1 TD (87) to INT (37) ratio and a 59.7% completion rate

 

It is amazing how similar Rudock's season and Brady's career at Michigan are stat wise.  Navarre seems strange with the best TD to INT ratio by a long shot but a much worse completion rate and thus lowest YPA average.  

Robinson and Gardner were gunslingers, chucking the ball deep down field which led to more big plays (as the higher YPA shows) but also more INTs (as the lower TD:INT ratio shows).  That probably explains why you would cringe when Robinson and Gardner dropped back to pass.

billybrown

December 7th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^

Well if you want to be technical about it Shane Morris has two starts under his belt. He just hasn't ever been named the "starter" for longer than one week at a time. Overall your point is correct though. I wouldn't be too harsh on speight though he came through against Minnesota.



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Tuebor

December 7th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^

Speight's stats speak for themself.  He was 3 for 6 against Minnesota and the TD pass was a great pass but other than that drive he looked lost.  In summation Speight has looked pretty pedestrian in his limited playing time and his performance against OSU in relief of Rudock was horrible.  Reminiscent of Shane Morris against Utah or Minnesota in 2014.

 

That being said I think he has the best chance of any Hoke QB recruit to start for Harbaugh as he has the NFL size and arm that Harbaugh is looking for. 

Richard75

December 7th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^

That's the amazing thing about the Hoke era: As bad as it was, it could've been so much worse.

There were at least five wins that just as easily could have been losses: Akron, VT and 3 against Northwestern. (The comeback against ND and the 42-41 loss to OSU balance each other out.) And given our backup QB situation in both 2013 and 2014 and the amount of punishment Gardner took, it's a miracle he didn't miss more than just the BW3 Bowl, a game we were likely to lose anyway. Save for App State and Miami, we probably would've lost any game that he didn't play in.



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SpikeFan2016

December 7th, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^

These arguments are stupid unless you look at both sides though. 

 

We also easily could've won: Iowa 2011 and 2013, South Carolina 2012, Penn State 2013, Rutgers2014, Nebraska 2013 (could even argue for NE 2012 given the Bellomy fiasco) and in Notre Dame 2012 we had 6 turnovers but only lost by a touchdown. 

 

And if the above poster wants to say we could've lost OSU 2011, we also weren't very far from winning in 2012. Hoke wasn't lucky to have the record he had (2011 he was pretty lucky but in the last few years we probably should have won a few more games). His record was what it deserved to be. 

 

Always some games you should win but don't and always some games you win but shouldn't. Have to consider both. 

Njia

December 7th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^

We should be in good shape on defense, but the OL - ugh. Not a tire fire, but when you're replacing a majority of the starters with really young guys, that has to be at least a yellow flag.

Mr. Yost

December 7th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

This makes me feel better about Hoke and worse about Rich Rod.

That 2012 class was incredible when you look back. Excellent job by Hoke.

I now wonder if this staff secretly regrets giving Pipkins the firm handshake as we could use Pipkins in a big way. Nothing to cry over, just saying he would've been helpful. Countess as well.

SpikeFan2016

December 7th, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^

Eh, I disagree.

Everyone said Hoke was a great recrutier.

 

The only great class I see was 2012. 

 

I won't count 2011 because that wasn't his fault, but I don't think the 2013 class is great (and definitely was overrated) and 2014 besides Peppers leaves a lot to be desired. We also had a rough 2015 because of the situation Hoke had us in. 

 

We really need the 2016 and 2017 classes to be top 5 because they will have to contribute a lot as sophomores relative to most classes because the 2014-2015 classes are weak and 2013 may not be weak but I wouldn't say it's strong either

reshp1

December 7th, 2015 at 2:48 PM ^

2013 was fine. The WR were on the weak side and probably won't contribute much, I'll give you that. We've got Green and Morris that are (probable) busts, but it's not like Hoke was the only one high on these guys at the time. Every other guy still on the team that hasn't contributed has either been injured (McCray, Shallman) or had entrenched starters in front of them (Kugler, D. Dawson). Imagine what this year looks like withouth Lewis, Butt, Smith, Hurst Hill, and Thomas. I don't see how you can say 2013 wasn't a pretty good class. 

2014 is way too early to call, 2015 happens when you have coaching transitions with anyone.

Magnus

December 7th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^

Kaleb Ringer didn't transfer due to injury, as far as I know. I mean, he *was* injured, but he has continued to play at Ferris State and now Georgia State.

MI Expat NY

December 7th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^

I thought it was said at the time that he was transferring because Michigan didn't expect him to recover from his knee injury (injuries?) and wanted to medical him?  

However, even if that's true, then the Pipkins transfer being classified as a PT transfer is inconsistent.  Of course, who am I to complain when I didn't put this list together...

Mr. Yost

December 7th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^

  • Brian...you've got Mo Hurst as "Mo Hill," probably because of Delano Hill.
  • Man Ferns should've waited...I bet he'd play in Harbaughs system - offense and/or defense. Bad move.
  • I just praised Hoke, but I now have to rip him for the QB recruiting. Absolutely awful.

alum96

December 7th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^

2014 look a bit worriome on 1st glance - we'll know better in a year, and especially 2 but right now.

Tracking to elite - Peppers

Potential for very good to great - Mone, Cole

Jury out - everyone else.  Not as sanguine on others on the offensive skill players - there was so much opportuntiy for impact due to lack of established upperclassmen.... a clear impact player would be showing by now. 

Florida's best wr is a 3* freshman, Utah's best wr probably is Covey who was a 2/3* freshman.   Harris has injuries but there was plenty of oppt for a guy like Ways to wrest the 3rd wr this year.  Canteen it seems they have given up on and now will give it a shot as a depth corner.  

As for the LBs they have been "blocked" by older players but none has seriously pushed as a top end backup like top end young guys do - OSU's Darron Lee was a 2013 recruit (3*) and won a starting job his 2nd year (akin to a 2014 winning a staring role in 2015) and is now a projected early entry for the draft this year - his 3rd. 

OL guys take time I understand but JBB seemed to already be passed by Newsome. 

Speight looks like his future is elsewhere.

Main hope I see in this class is one of the 3 remaining LBs at least becomes a servicable starter, Marshall gets his head out of his ass (his teammate in HS is one of the best DTs in the country already - get inspired dude), Watson becomes a solid corner (he had that spring game moment - hope to hear more about him at bowl practices standing out), and Bunting is a "sorta Jake Butt".  And Harris can stay healthy for 3 consecutive months at some point in his life.

But that's not a lot of contributors at this time projecting to be high level.

Young guys usually flash early in their career if they are on "very good" path - Jake ryan, frank clark, any # of wrs from the 90s, lewis was starting his 2nd year,  Henry, Mone, etc.  Not seeing much of that in the 2014s outside of 3 guys.

dragonchild

December 7th, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^

The development of Chesson, A.J. Williams, Rudock (compared to Sad Ghost Rudock), Jeremy Clark and Kenny Allen have been nothing short of amazing.  And that's in one season.  We lose Rudock and Williams but more my point is that all of these guys were question marks at one time or another within the last year.

OTOH, man, I'd like to know what the hell is going on with running backs and linebackers.

Hannibal.

December 7th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^

If I am remembering right, Hoke also landed Graham Glasgow as a preferred walk-on in that transition class, and he had to win a miniature preferred walk-on recruiting battle with OSU for him.  Given that our best interior linemen on both sides of the ball are Glasgows, that might have been Hoke's most significant recruiting win. 

Hannibal.

December 7th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^

It's way too early to assess the returns on the 2014 class.  Thanks to all of the recruiting hits of 2012 and 2013, the recruits of 2014 haven't been needed.  There are positions that could be better, but I can't think of any position that has been so mind bogglingly awful that anyone with a pulse should have been given a chance by now.  Other than QB in the first half of the year, which we already knew we didn't get a great one in the '14 class.  Or maybe RB, but we didn't get one of those either.  I typically start worrying about freshman and sophomore recruits -- when the guys that are ahead of them are so bad that even a mistake-prone freshman should be getting playing time.

We really need that class to be good though.  The 2015 class was another transition class and it was pretty disappointing, even as transition classes tyipcally go.