Attrition Watch: August, 2013 Edition Comment Count

Brian

I keep mentioning Michigan's disastrous 2010 class and how Michigan's attrition has slowed considerably since Brady Hoke was made head coach, so I thought I'd lay that out in pixels.

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few years—Hoke's attrition rate will go up as certain guys find themselves buried on the depth chart and his classes have more time to pick up career-ending injuries, but so far so good.

Starter-level contributors are in italics.

[UPDATE: I corrected some errors. Hopkins left football, Teric Jones was injured, Hayes was an RR recruit, italicized Raymon Taylor.]

2009

This was a Rodriguez class, his first full one. Only redshirt seniors are still around from it.

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Jeremy Gallon, Justin Turner, Taylor Lewan

Enrolled: Jeremy Gallon, Taylor Lewan, Quinton Washington, Michael Schofield, Cam Gordon, Fitz Toussaint, Mike Jones, Thomas Gordon, Brendan Gibbons

Played Out Eligibility: Will Campbell, Craig Roh, Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, Brandin Hawthorne.

Transferred for PT (3): Vlad Emilien, Je'Ron Stokes, Isaiah Bell

Academics/Not Being Nice (3): Justin Turner, Tate Forcier, Adrian Witty

Injury (1): Teric Jones

Left Football: N/A

This is actually a high-quality outfit with 17 of 24 kids completing their eligibility or about to do so. Michigan got ten starter-level contributors with the prospect of adding an eleventh in Cam Gordon this year, and there should be four to six NFL draft picks out of this group when it's all said and done.

The biggest bummers here are Justin Turner's inability to scale depth charts that were below sea level for most of his time here, and Tate Forcier's spectacular flameout. That's not too bad for a large class.

2010

All Rodriguez, during his under fire period.

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Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal

Enrolled (9): Richard Ash, Courtney Avery, Jibreel Black, Drew Dileo, Devin Gardner, Jordan Paskorz, Jake Ryan, Jeremy Jackson, Will Hagerup(?)

Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal

Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones

Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace

Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins

The disaster class. Four kids never showed up on campus because of academic issues—which is four more than Hoke has had in two and a half recruiting classes. A fifth, Austin White, was immediately a problem child and didn't make it to fall after enrolling early. While Rodriguez can't be faulted for losing the Talbotts or Christian Pace, he can be faulted for making Pace the only(!) offensive lineman in this class.

Michigan also brought in an assortment of guys who busted almost immediately. Cullen Christian was out the door after one year, as was Ray Vinopal. DJ Williamson quit to go run track at Akron. Ricardo Miller hung on a little longer but was moved to tight end quickly, which was pretty much the death knell.

Finally, hanging over this class is the bizarre specter of guys who were getting playing time but left anyway: Christian, Vinopal, Johnson, and Hopkins were all seeing snaps—though Hopkins did seem to lose his job after moving to fullback—early, and then left.

Meanwhile the few guys who are still around are Jake Ryan, Devin Gardner, Jibreel Black, and some role players. Three starters out of 27 players, and 8 or 9 guys who are even here right now, depending on how you want to classify Hagerup.

2011

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Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada

This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.

Enrolled (13): Justice Hayes, Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Chris Bryant*, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, Frank Clark(H), Thomas Rawls(H), Desmond Morgan, Russell Bellomy(H), Keith Heitzman (H), Jack Miller, Matt Wile(H)

*[Bryant actually committed after Hoke was hired but had been favoring Michigan so long that Rodriguez deserves the credit there.]

Transferred for PT (1): Tamani Carter(H)

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones

Injury (1): Antonio Poole(H)

Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.

Beset on all sides, Rodriguez struggled again in 2011. He locked down Brennen Beyer and Blake Countess and found an excellent sleeper in Desmond Morgan, but that's about it. He recruited three guys who didn't make it through year one at Michigan—Posada in particular showed up for a cup of coffee only—and  missed out on Lawrence Thomas, DeAnthony Arnett, and Anthony Zettel in-state. He did put Michigan in a good spot for Chris Bryant, who technically committed after Hoke was hired.

By the time Hoke came in he had ten spots to fill in three weeks and he was swinging wildly. He found some hits: Wile, Clark, looking like Taylor and Heitzman. He also brought in Chris Barnett, a tight end who'd had more high schools than years in high school. He immediately flamed out and took Kellen Jones with him; Jones would later flame out at Oklahoma as well. Minnesota decommit Tamani Carter also couldn't hack it quickly and departed; Antonio Poole was hewed down by injury.

13 of the 20 guys enter their true junior or redshirt sophomore seasons, and while there's significant attrition already almost all of it can be attributed to Rodriguez recruiting some guys who saw the (depressed) talent level at Michigan and said "noooope" and Hoke having to cram ten guys in his recruiting class in three weeks time.

2012

Redshirt freshmen and sophomores.

Enrolled: 24 of the 25 guys have made it to the beginning of year two.

Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.

Hey look, everyone qualified and nobody was so patently out of their depth that they transferred out after one year.

I am filing Ringer as an injury issue, since I have it that he underwent serious knee surgery that robbed him of his athleticism. He chose to stick it out at a lower level instead of retire.

2013

All are qualified and enrolled. None have committed to the University of Awful Rap.

Comments

kb

August 14th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

also probably had a little bit of an impact, though most attrition was clearly due to either questionable character or ability.

Wee-Bey Brice

August 14th, 2013 at 1:05 PM ^

That first Hoke class in 2011 stands out after reading 2009 & 2010 because just about each kid is a contributor in some capacity. There are no wasted spots. I love where we are headed

bronxblue

August 14th, 2013 at 1:14 PM ^

I continue to think that the flameout at the end of the 2009 season and missing a bowl game really set this team back for what seems like half a decade.  With a bowl game that year, the team keeps practicing and the players have a bit of a carrot at the end.  The media in A2 lays off RR a bit because he got them back to a (I presume) decent bowl game, and he can point to steady progress on the recruiting trail.  Less gambling with lower-quality players/"issue" guys, better retention.  RR might still be gone the next year, but Hoke's better positioned in terms of depth when he takes over, and everyone isn't worried about the offensive line  depth because there are a couple of people in that class.

 

stephenrjking

August 14th, 2013 at 3:10 PM ^

I think there's some truth to this, in that the cumulative effect of the losses at the end of '09 did a lot of long-term damage. Recruiting is a bit better, the mood is a lot better amongst the fanbase (maybe not thrilled, but the perpetually horrifying losses were just murder), bowl practice...

But perhaps it was a blessing in disguise. I am loathe to ever root against my team just because I don't like a coach or a player, but we would have to be imbeciles not to see that Hoke and his well-paid staff are a massive upgrade over RR's management of the program. 

When RR came on, I (and others, I believe) thought we were getting both a great, advanced football mind (probably true) but also someone who would elevate the program to the next level that had eluded Lloyd for the previous 5-7 seasons. Watching Michigan, embracing new aggressive concepts, shred Florida while RR's old team demolished Oklahoma with beautiful, cutthroat football suggested that the ceiling was high. I expected RR to, like Urban when he moved to Florida, recruit well and befuddle B1G defenses with superior gameplans.

But that's not what happened. And even if Michigan hadn't been embarrassed at the end of '09 and RR had managed to limp along, by this past season it would be clear that we were never approaching that level. And at some point a change would have to be made...

And instead of the promise of a good year this year with greatness on the horizon, it would be rebuilding time right now. 

M-Wolverine

August 14th, 2013 at 4:24 PM ^

I was more worried about the long term recruiting issues. For whatever reason we were not only not recruiting up to Michigan standards, we weren't even recruiting at late Carr standards.  And I'm not sure that gets better before it gets worse. Can you imagine recruiting for the 2012 class while on the hot seat ALL YEAR LONG? Then if you bring someone in you've not only made it really hard to recruit the 2011 class*, but have the transition problems in the 2012 class, with a much better local talent year. The dream for Rich was to be like Florida without the arrests. Run the spread, but recruit top level talent to play it, the kind he couldn't get at West Virginia. Instead we looked like we were recruiting a lot like a very good West Viriginia team. Which isn't all bad but not what we expected.  The Defense could probably be fixed by cleaning house and a couple of bucks. I'm not sure you turn recruiting around that fast. 

(People keep bringing up Hart as a guy lost when they fired Rich, but he decommitted before Rich was fired, and the rumors were well before the bowl game.  http://www.maizenbrew.com/2010/12/3/1852719/will-dee-hart-decommit )

His Dudeness

August 14th, 2013 at 1:24 PM ^

I hope we have infinitely more posts about RR.

There's just not enough of that for me.

Can you post this exact same post 100 times, please?

Fill the whole front page. I beg of you.

turd ferguson

August 14th, 2013 at 1:53 PM ^

It's a review of our roster.  Our roster consists of guys from the 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 classes.  RR recruited about 2.75 of those classes.  Should Brian have left those out?

Just so you're prepared for all of the future pain coming your way, I'd imagine that Rich's name will be mentioned in similar posts one, two, and maybe even three years from now.

His Dudeness

August 14th, 2013 at 2:01 PM ^

I sure hope so!

I hope we never stop reading posts about it.

I could go for another post right now actually. And that will not be enough. I want to read as much about RR as humanly possible. More than humanly possible. I want to be a cosmic being that can take in more information about the RR-era at Michigan that there could possibly be. I want to invent a time machine specifically to go back to 2008 and I want to sit by RR from beginning of tenure to end. I want to eat with him, make his sandwiches, snuggle in between Rita and him at night, get on the stair master with him, crack wise about how horrible he is with Barwis with him, take beer bongs at Gibson's house with him. I want more than that. I want to be in his head Malcovich-style. Even more than that actually.

turd ferguson

August 14th, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^

It looks to me like we'll have to wait until 2015 or 2016 before our roster really becomes a terrifying band of death monsters.  One redeeming thing about the holes in the earlier classes is that it means that when the 2012 and 2013 classes get into their upper-class years, many of them will have multiple years of starting experience.  That's actually pretty rare.  

Thinking about what could be in 2016 is almost ridiculous.  Some of these guys will be gone by then I'm sure, but guys potentially on that offense, many of whom will have a ton of playing experience, include: Shane Morris (Sr./RS Jr.), Derrick Green (Sr./RS Jr.), Deveon Smith (Sr./RS Jr.), Damien Harris (So./RS Fr.), Drake Harris (Jr./RS So.), George Campbell (So./RS Fr.), Jehu Chesson (RS Sr.), Kyle Kalis (RS Sr.), Ben Braden (RS Sr.), Kyle Bosch (Sr./RS Jr.), Erik Magnuson (RS Sr.), Patrick Kugler (Sr./RS Jr.), David Dawson (Sr./RS Jr.), Mason Cole (Jr./RS So.), LTT (Sr./RS Jr.), JBB (Jr./RS So.), Jake Butt (Sr./RS Jr.), Ian Bunting (Jr./RS So.), and a bunch of other damn good football players.  That's some serious raw talent, and many of those guys will have played a lot of games by then.

The defense looks like it could be similarly loaded.

alum96

August 14th, 2013 at 2:08 PM ^

I agree with you on potential but any number of these kids will not make it for various reasons (injury, "playing time", just not as good as rated, etc).  With every class I think if 2/3rds of the class makes it thru to senior year you are doing pretty solid.  So for all those kids we have from 2012-2014, probably 5+ from each class just won't be what is expected.  Which is normal.  Of course which 5 will be important.

Magnus

August 14th, 2013 at 1:57 PM ^

Terrence Talbott left after he got in a fight at practice and wouldn't accept his punishment. So he half quit, half got kicked off the team.

Michigasling

August 14th, 2013 at 2:01 PM ^

For obvious reasons, I remembered Caleb Stacey was in the same class as Kaleb Ringer and wondered if his omission in the list was because he decommitted before signing day.  Finding the relevant post and seeing that he did, in fact, decommit very close to signing day, Ace's comment about the O-linemen still available is particularly interesting in retrospect:

While Michigan looks to have a good shot with higher-ranked offensive linemen Josh Garnett, Jordan Diamond, and Alex Kozan, Stacey's absence will be felt—he was the only current commit projected to play center, a position of great need for the Wolverines, and only Kozan looks like he could fill that void.

 

Seth

August 14th, 2013 at 3:10 PM ^

That was a bit of a mutual parting of ways. Michigan basically said they'd honor the commitment but that he'd have a better chance playing elsewhere, and it was rumored (I just read this on the board here) that michigan put in a good word for him with Cincy.

StateStreetBlue

August 14th, 2013 at 2:23 PM ^

Jone's is currently playing for Clemson and is expected to make a significant impact this year.  Clemson message boards have been raving about him all summer similiar to what we've been hearing on Frank Clark.

Professor Prepuces

August 14th, 2013 at 9:15 PM ^

I aver two addenda to this:

1. If memory serves, only the last complete Rodriguez class of 2010 used all available scholarships.  There were a few open spots unused in the 2009 and 2008 classes.  This seems to be as large a strike as any trasfer/left football/academics, and thus I feel worth mentioning.  In an operational sense is there a difference?  At one point weren't we 5 scholarships under the limit?  That is a major NCAA sanction equivalence imposed through incompetence.

2. Rodriguez had much more time than Hoke to shore up his first transition class.  He needed a lot of players, but none more than quarterback.  And he recruited?  Why Tyrelle Pryor, who not only ended up being a star at Ohio but also proved to be of low scruples.  He ended up landing Justin Feagan, and we all recall that ending.  And though this is outside the scope of the post, I believe Boubacar Cissoko was recruited by the Rodriguez staff during the transition.

Am I off base here?