Do you mean "Turner's inability to keep up with Rodriguez on the stairclimber?"
I keep mentioning Michigan's disastrous 2010 class and how Michigan's attrition has slowed considerably since Brady Hoke was made head coach, so I thought I'd lay that out in pixels.
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few years—Hoke's attrition rate will go up as certain guys find themselves buried on the depth chart and his classes have more time to pick up career-ending injuries, but so far so good.
Starter-level contributors are in italics.
[UPDATE: I corrected some errors. Hopkins left football, Teric Jones was injured, Hayes was an RR recruit, italicized Raymon Taylor.]
This was a Rodriguez class, his first full one. Only redshirt seniors are still around from it.
Jeremy Gallon, Justin Turner, Taylor Lewan
Enrolled: Jeremy Gallon, Taylor Lewan, Quinton Washington, Michael Schofield, Cam Gordon, Fitz Toussaint, Mike Jones, Thomas Gordon, Brendan Gibbons
Played Out Eligibility: Will Campbell, Craig Roh, Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, Brandin Hawthorne.
Transferred for PT (3): Vlad Emilien, Je'Ron Stokes, Isaiah Bell
Academics/Not Being Nice (3): Justin Turner, Tate Forcier, Adrian Witty
Injury (1): Teric Jones
Left Football: N/A
This is actually a high-quality outfit with 17 of 24 kids completing their eligibility or about to do so. Michigan got ten starter-level contributors with the prospect of adding an eleventh in Cam Gordon this year, and there should be four to six NFL draft picks out of this group when it's all said and done.
The biggest bummers here are Justin Turner's inability to scale depth charts that were below sea level for most of his time here, and Tate Forcier's spectacular flameout. That's not too bad for a large class.
All Rodriguez, during his under fire period.
Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal
Enrolled (9): Richard Ash, Courtney Avery, Jibreel Black, Drew Dileo, Devin Gardner, Jordan Paskorz, Jake Ryan, Jeremy Jackson, Will Hagerup(?)
Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal
Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones
Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace
Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins
The disaster class. Four kids never showed up on campus because of academic issues—which is four more than Hoke has had in two and a half recruiting classes. A fifth, Austin White, was immediately a problem child and didn't make it to fall after enrolling early. While Rodriguez can't be faulted for losing the Talbotts or Christian Pace, he can be faulted for making Pace the only(!) offensive lineman in this class.
Michigan also brought in an assortment of guys who busted almost immediately. Cullen Christian was out the door after one year, as was Ray Vinopal. DJ Williamson quit to go run track at Akron. Ricardo Miller hung on a little longer but was moved to tight end quickly, which was pretty much the death knell.
Finally, hanging over this class is the bizarre specter of guys who were getting playing time but left anyway: Christian, Vinopal, Johnson, and Hopkins were all seeing snaps—though Hopkins did seem to lose his job after moving to fullback—early, and then left.
Meanwhile the few guys who are still around are Jake Ryan, Devin Gardner, Jibreel Black, and some role players. Three starters out of 27 players, and 8 or 9 guys who are even here right now, depending on how you want to classify Hagerup.
Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada
This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.
Enrolled (13): Justice Hayes, Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Chris Bryant*, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, Frank Clark(H), Thomas Rawls(H), Desmond Morgan, Russell Bellomy(H), Keith Heitzman (H), Jack Miller, Matt Wile(H)
*[Bryant actually committed after Hoke was hired but had been favoring Michigan so long that Rodriguez deserves the credit there.]
Transferred for PT (1): Tamani Carter(H)
Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones
Injury (1): Antonio Poole(H)
Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.
Beset on all sides, Rodriguez struggled again in 2011. He locked down Brennen Beyer and Blake Countess and found an excellent sleeper in Desmond Morgan, but that's about it. He recruited three guys who didn't make it through year one at Michigan—Posada in particular showed up for a cup of coffee only—and missed out on Lawrence Thomas, DeAnthony Arnett, and Anthony Zettel in-state. He did put Michigan in a good spot for Chris Bryant, who technically committed after Hoke was hired.
By the time Hoke came in he had ten spots to fill in three weeks and he was swinging wildly. He found some hits: Wile, Clark, looking like Taylor and Heitzman. He also brought in Chris Barnett, a tight end who'd had more high schools than years in high school. He immediately flamed out and took Kellen Jones with him; Jones would later flame out at Oklahoma as well. Minnesota decommit Tamani Carter also couldn't hack it quickly and departed; Antonio Poole was hewed down by injury.
13 of the 20 guys enter their true junior or redshirt sophomore seasons, and while there's significant attrition already almost all of it can be attributed to Rodriguez recruiting some guys who saw the (depressed) talent level at Michigan and said "noooope" and Hoke having to cram ten guys in his recruiting class in three weeks time.
Redshirt freshmen and sophomores.
Enrolled: 24 of the 25 guys have made it to the beginning of year two.
Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.
Hey look, everyone qualified and nobody was so patently out of their depth that they transferred out after one year.
I am filing Ringer as an injury issue, since I have it that he underwent serious knee surgery that robbed him of his athleticism. He chose to stick it out at a lower level instead of retire.
All are qualified and enrolled. None have committed to the University of Awful Rap.
Do you mean "Turner's inability to keep up with Rodriguez on the stairclimber?"
Justin Turner and Jerald Robinson are both planning to play at DII Walsh University, in North Canton Ohio. Don't know/can't say anything about any pending issues, academic or otherwise.
Walsh's new coach is Ted Karras, nephew of Lions' great (and Webster Dad) Alex Karras
The horse slayer.
Wow. When you put the names/reasons on paper (in this case on the internetz) it really stands out.
But wouldn't Raymon Taylor be counted as a starter too? He started 12 games last year; but I might not be properly interpreting the italics.
This is pretty amazing. Notably, RR recruited a decent class in 2009 that produced some fantastic players. And there were a couple of the classic "sleepers" in the 2010 class that are the types of guys he supposedly wanted to recruit (which is interesting, since Michigan doesn't have to go after sleepers). But overall the 2010 class, recruited on the back of the promising/disappointing 2009 season that should have been building momentum, was a total and complete disaster.
And we're still suffering from it.
Not that anybody thinks this way anymore, but I know I had some lingering thoughts about what would've happened if Michigan hadn't melted down so completely at the end of 2010 and RR had been able to shoehorn a quality DC to accompany the offense. The results from his last two classes pretty much answers that question in the negative; things would be very bad.
This helps me contextualize the struggles from last season and any struggles this season--Hoke and co really did start with an empty cupboard. Amazing how well we've done with that.
I always thought Rodriguez's biggest problem was his inability to retain players. When you're a head coach with a multi-million dollar contract, your job is to convince recalcitrant kids to get with the program rather than running them off. Sure, some kids are just jerks, but Rodriguez pushed way too many out for that to be the problem--unless he sucked at evaluating character.
was the baffling selection of players he brought in. Look at the lack of offensive and defensive linemen that put us in a hole when Hoke took over. Also, the completely undersized linebackers for playing in the Big Ten. Finally, his unwillingness to spend much effort recruiting Michigan and Ohio was a huge mistake. It led to MSU bringing in a lot of talent that we would have at least gotten a good share of under Carr or Hoke, not to mention Ohio having free reign of all the best players down there.
It's funny you say that. I was just thinking about that the other day relative to the 2015 class when Campbell committed. I'm not saying Michigan should have or should not have offered him--I only follow recruiting on this site and rarely watch the highlight tapes, but Michigan apparently getting ALL THE FIVE STARS does leave really good local kids for MSU, PSU, and uh Northwestern.
I always saw the turner situation As THE example of why Rodriguez deserved to fail: he broke a kid just to day he did it. I know people will site this or that but this one instance shows what a terrible teacher Rodriguez is if for no other reason than his inability o reach different students with different motivations/fears
I still bitching because RR either couldn't or didn't try to retain Ryan Mallett. Either way it is his fault Steven Threat was his best option at QB.
Mallett was, apparently, a problem from the moment he stepped on campus. He was a cancer on the team and seemed to be a good departure threat even if Carr had never left; I don't think we can hold his departure against RR that much. Given that Rodriguez brought in a Manziel-type talent in Forcier and a transcendant player in Denard the next season, his handling of the QB situation was actually pretty good relative to the rest of the roster.
Just a slight correction: he brought them in the same season. Forcier started their freshman season because he already had coaching. Denard took over as a sophomore once he got some coaching.
Wasn't Countess a late pick up by Mattison? I seem to remember that bring our first glimpse at the recruiting awesomeness that was about to unfold. My memory might be failing me, though, and I might be thinking of someone else
According to rivals, Countess committed in December of 2010.
Thank you. Now I don't feel so bad.
As I recall, Mattison stopped there on the way to Ann Arbor immediately after accepting the job. If the family needed assurance that Countess was wanted, that must have helped.
I'm pretty sure Teric Jones had a serious knee injury that forced him to give up football, not transfer for PT.
Was gonna post the same thing, but I think maybe the OP is trying to say he transferred for physical therapy. /s
You guys do an awesome thorough analysis that can not be found anywhere else and thank you for that. Since I am a math teacher I would ask that you include at least one graph with each article! Thanks again.
Great article Brian. Please do this annually. I'd also like to see in any future editions when the kids leave the program - i.e. I am curious how much of the attrition was immediate (within 12-18 months) versus long term (i.e. injury / playing time). There were a lot of "not being a nice guy" blow ups there which from memory happened in relatively short periods of time for most of these kids. 2010 had so many leave for "playing time" it sort of smells wrong - think something else was behind some of those departures. As for 2012 class too soon to tell really what will happen but at least most made it through the first period of 12 months. A year from now we should have a better handle on what the 2012 class is.
They played as true freshman (granted, on a terrible terrible though injury-ravaged defense) and then transferred to Pitt during the coaching transition. They both play at Pitt now and have 2 more season of eligibility.
Christian can be considered a bust because he was a big-time recruit but he's playing and contributing to high level (well, Big East) college football. Vinopal was a GrittyMcGrit 2-star who appeared maybe a little underrated, if anything.
What sucks for Christian is I remember him saying he went to Pitt not just because it was close to home, but because guys like Gibson went there from Michigan. Then Gibby bolted to get the band back together in Arizona.
What could have been with Countess and Christian as our main CBs, while getting actual coaching to improve them.
I wonder where Stephen Hopkins goes now. I liked the kid. I tried to look online and saw that the Twitter he still uses he has a pic of him vs ND as his background and his bio says he plays football at Michigan. I'm guessing no love lost against Michigan.
Just not playing football. Focusing on school and getting his degree
I'm not sure it's entirely applicable to the nature of the article, but it would probably be more fair to Rodriguez to mention those who decommitted from the 2011 class after he was fired. Off the top of my head...Dallas Crawford, a different kicker named Matt (edit: Goudis), and that QB, Kevin Sousa? (edit: and of course Jake Fisher - this article helped jog my memory: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/tvh-weekly-kickers-decommits-new-offers and as Hannibal points out bellow, Dee Hart. That would be the, you know, obvious big name).
Ok, maybe that doesn't help Rodriguez, but the class very well would have had other names in it had he stayed.
ahhhh! lapsus! sorry
We'd also get to look forward to Rhett Rodriguez in 2017. What were fools we were to miss that boat.
No mention of The Pattern (tm) ?
The "what-if" hall of fame with Kelly Baraka.
Minor quibble -- Justice Hayes was a RichRod recruit.
Also, I think that the loss of Anthony Zettel can be squarely blamed upon "the process". I might throw Jake Fisher and Dee Hart in that category too, since the current staff has been so excellent at recruiting, I wonder if they could have kept those guys in it.
Blame The Process if you must, given Hoke was hired late. But he did get a chance at Fisher, and I believe more than one in-home. But by that point I think it was too late, Fisher went to Oregon on signing day.
Zettel, no - he announced earlier, and a big part of the problem I believe was the 3-3-5. I thought his HS coach hated it, thought Zettel would do better at PSU. Given Zettel was at multiple Michigan games throughout his senior season (I saw him constantly, just walking up to the stadium), it was a collosal failure on RR's part.
Zettel was a Michigan fan his whole life...my fiance is from WB and even his parents said they were going to be surprised if he picked anyone else...I think the 3-3-5 and the writing on the wall that Rich was not long for AA was enough to move him elsewhere.
All the criticism of RR's OL recruiting ignores some key considerations.
1. RR had to take 6 OL in the '08 class to fill out the void left by Carr. The '08 line was the worst thing ever.
2. Most of the guys Rodriguez recruited panned out for his system -- Barnum, Omameh, Lewan, Schofield were a strong core group of spread OL players.
3. Taking only one OL in the '10 class was idiotic, but he was (rightfully) focused on trying to fix the D. It's a semi-ratinal excuse. RR knew he could make up for it in '11 and probably would have with Jake Fisher and presumably others.
4. You can't judge the '11 class (for either Hoke or RR) because of the process. Rodriguez was under a massive cloud of uncertainty and Hoke had no time to rectify things.
THank You Dahblue...I hated and continue to hate RR...please point out his country bumpkiness!!!
It is notable that Carr left Molk and Huyge for RR. Ortmann and Dorrestein were older guys too, but who was the next best guy? Moosman, Nowicki (a walk-on)? You're talking about 2 or 3 Michigan-caliber starters at best.
Compare to what Hoke inherited from RR: 3 years of Lewan and Schofield, 2 years of Omameh, Barnum and Mealer, plus Miller, Bryant and a year of Huyge and Molk (from Carr). The inherited OL is a big reason why the 2011 team was so successful. Compare that to 2008. You do remember how awful the '08 OL was right?
Hoke inherited a far better situation along the OL than Rodriguez. I'm amazed anyone is even trying to make this an argument.
I'm not formulating a defense of Rodriguez as Michigan coach or rehashing the tired bare cupboard arguments. I'm describing what went down with OL recruiting and why we are in a situation where Hoke had to take 4 OL in '12 and 6 OL in '13...and I actually think he could have taken more.
I'll take 8 quality linemen over a dozen crappy ones any day of the week. Rodriguez had to resort to starting walk-ons, Hoke did not (although one injury could have changed that.) Neither coach inherited any sort of functional depth, no matter how many scholarship guys they had.
That one guy had a better OL situation than the other doesn't change the fact that Rodriguez's incompetance when it came to managing our defense is best described as epic.
...same as the old boss...
He is at Clemson now and apparently doing well. When the Clemson D was being discussed on Bill King's show on Sirius, he mentioned the many highly touted LB's that were probably ready to step up. The Clemson 247 guy said, "you know, the guy I keep hearing about is Kellen Jones, a transfer from Oklahoma."
I didn't see this before my other post but I have heard the same thing. It sounds like he is Clemson's version of Frank Clark and expected to have serious playing time this year.
Jones is up there with Dorsey in my book as far as the "what could have been..." factor.
also probably had a little bit of an impact, though most attrition was clearly due to either questionable character or ability.
That first Hoke class in 2011 stands out after reading 2009 & 2010 because just about each kid is a contributor in some capacity. There are no wasted spots. I love where we are headed
Thanks for the fixes guys.
I continue to think that the flameout at the end of the 2009 season and missing a bowl game really set this team back for what seems like half a decade. With a bowl game that year, the team keeps practicing and the players have a bit of a carrot at the end. The media in A2 lays off RR a bit because he got them back to a (I presume) decent bowl game, and he can point to steady progress on the recruiting trail. Less gambling with lower-quality players/"issue" guys, better retention. RR might still be gone the next year, but Hoke's better positioned in terms of depth when he takes over, and everyone isn't worried about the offensive line depth because there are a couple of people in that class.
I think there's some truth to this, in that the cumulative effect of the losses at the end of '09 did a lot of long-term damage. Recruiting is a bit better, the mood is a lot better amongst the fanbase (maybe not thrilled, but the perpetually horrifying losses were just murder), bowl practice...
But perhaps it was a blessing in disguise. I am loathe to ever root against my team just because I don't like a coach or a player, but we would have to be imbeciles not to see that Hoke and his well-paid staff are a massive upgrade over RR's management of the program.
When RR came on, I (and others, I believe) thought we were getting both a great, advanced football mind (probably true) but also someone who would elevate the program to the next level that had eluded Lloyd for the previous 5-7 seasons. Watching Michigan, embracing new aggressive concepts, shred Florida while RR's old team demolished Oklahoma with beautiful, cutthroat football suggested that the ceiling was high. I expected RR to, like Urban when he moved to Florida, recruit well and befuddle B1G defenses with superior gameplans.
But that's not what happened. And even if Michigan hadn't been embarrassed at the end of '09 and RR had managed to limp along, by this past season it would be clear that we were never approaching that level. And at some point a change would have to be made...
And instead of the promise of a good year this year with greatness on the horizon, it would be rebuilding time right now.
I was more worried about the long term recruiting issues. For whatever reason we were not only not recruiting up to Michigan standards, we weren't even recruiting at late Carr standards. And I'm not sure that gets better before it gets worse. Can you imagine recruiting for the 2012 class while on the hot seat ALL YEAR LONG? Then if you bring someone in you've not only made it really hard to recruit the 2011 class*, but have the transition problems in the 2012 class, with a much better local talent year. The dream for Rich was to be like Florida without the arrests. Run the spread, but recruit top level talent to play it, the kind he couldn't get at West Virginia. Instead we looked like we were recruiting a lot like a very good West Viriginia team. Which isn't all bad but not what we expected. The Defense could probably be fixed by cleaning house and a couple of bucks. I'm not sure you turn recruiting around that fast.
(People keep bringing up Hart as a guy lost when they fired Rich, but he decommitted before Rich was fired, and the rumors were well before the bowl game. http://www.maizenbrew.com/2010/12/3/1852719/will-dee-hart-decommit )
2013 Frank Clark looks like he can eat 2011 Frank Clark whole
Thanks for pixelmatizing (scientific word) this. I knew 2010 was not a good recruiting time, but I had no idea how disastrous it actually was.