Attrition Watch: April 2016 Comment Count

Brian

With spring practice just about over and Michigan under 85 it's time to 1) check in with how the Hoke-Harbaugh transition is affecting the roster and 2) finally, thankfully drop that damn 2010 class from these posts. We will officially never talk about Demar Dorsey again. We're also moving past 2011 since none of those guys are on the roster any more. If you need to remind yourself of the final verdict on either of those recruiting classes, the December version of this post should suffice. In brief: "argh dammit" and "bleah," respectively.

Quality starters are bold, contributors italics. Walkons denoted with #.

2012

25 players. Only fifth year seniors left. Brady Hoke class #1.

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Devin Funchess, Willie Henry, Kyle Kalis

Enrolled (9): Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden, Matt Godin, Chris Wormley, Jeremy Clark, Ryan Glasgow(#)

Played out eligibility (7): Jarrod Wilson, Sione Houma, AJ Williams, Mario Ojemudia, Joe Bolden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross.

Early NFL draft entry (2): Devin Funchess, Willie Henry

Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer

Transferred for PT (1): Ondre Pipkins

Academics/Not Being Nice (1): Dennis Norfleet.

Not offered fifth year (4): Terry Richardson, Allen Gant, Tom Strobel, Blake Bars.

Since December this class has shed four redshirt juniors who didn't see the field much, if at all, and lost Willie Henry to the NFL draft. That's not much of an impact on the overall results from Brady Hoke's first full class, which was downright terrific. If you add in walk-on Ryan Glasgow, exactly half this class panned out into multi-year starting roles, with five more guys serious contributors. If Michigan had put redshirts on guys like Ojemudia and Houma, who were little-used as freshmen, it would look even better.

The combination of player retention, strikes on sleepers (Chesson, Clark, Glasgow, and Henry were all generic-three-star-or-worse and are likely to go in the NFL draft) and sheer quantity makes this the best recruiting class in the past decade. And that's despite one of the five-stars in the class, Pipkins, failing to make an impact.

2013

27 men. Seniors and redshirt juniors. Brady Hoke class #2.

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Jourdan Lewis, Derrick Green, Logan Tuley-Tillman

Enrolled (17): Jourdan Lewis, Patrick Kugler, Dymonte Thomas, Shane Morris, David Dawson, Henry Poggi, Mike McCray, Taco Charlton, Jake Butt, De'Veon Smith, Ben Gedeon, Maurice Hurst, Delano Hill, Wyatt Shallman, Channing Stribling, Khalid Hill, Scott Sypniewski.

Injury (3): Chris Fox, Jaron Dukes, Reon Dawson.

Transferred for PT (5): Dan Samuelson, Kyle Bosch, Derrick Green, Ross Taylor-Douglas, Damario Jones.

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Logan Tuley-Tillman, Csont'e York

Since December this class has shed five guys. Dukes and Dawson took medical hardships and stayed in school; Green, Taylor-Douglas, and Jones all graduated and will land elsewhere as grad transfers despite having only been in school for three years. (Green and Taylor-Douglas did both enroll early.)

With three major exceptions this is another excellent class, featuring at least two high NFL draft picks and probably a few more. The problems:

  • Shane Morris was a major risk after missing his senior season with mono, especially since there was no QB in the previous class.
  • The WR class was mostly a scramble situation after LaQuon Treadwell opted for the money at Ole Miss. All three players have already left without making an impact.
  • The offensive line class was gutted, largely by things outside of the program's control. Chris Fox's knee was never right after a high school injury; Bosch had personal issues; Tuley-Tillman got charged with a felony; Dan Samuelson couldn't hack it at this level. Only the latter was at all on talent evaluation or development.

Harbaugh papered over the first problem by bringing in Rudock and O'Korn; the other two positions look good… and dangerously thin.

2014

16 men.

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Jabrill Peppers, Ian Bunting, Brady Pallante

Enrolled (15): Jabrill Peppers, Drake Harris, Bryan Mone, Mason Cole, Lawrence Marshall, Chase Winovich, Freddy Canteen, Ian Bunting, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Wilton Speight, Maurice Ways, Noah Furbush, Brandon Watson, Jared Wangler, Brady Pallante.

Transferred for PT(1): Michael Ferns.

Freddy Canteen may be on the verge of exiting, per Harbaugh.

Not much change for these guys yet.  Early yet for many of them to make an impact, I did italicize a few kids who are likely to play roles this year. Ask again after this year.

The small size of the class is not hugely damaging since the two before had 52 kids in them and didn't suffer much attrition until right about now, but when you have such a small class you'd like it to be filled with more top-end guys. That wasn't the case, as everyone after Bunting on the list above is more or less a sleeper type. Seven shots in the dark is more or less expected when you take 25+; in a class of 16 that's the first hint that Hoke's recruiting was falling apart.

2015

14 men. The Hoke/Harbaugh transition class. Harbaugh recruits denoted with *.

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Zach Gentry, Tyrone Wheatley Jr, Keith Washington

Enrolled (13): Zach Gentry*, Tyree Kinnel, Grant Newsome, Alex Malzone, Ty Wheatley Jr*, Shelton Johnson*, Karan Higdon*, Reuben Jones*, Grant Perry*, Keith Washington*, Jon Runyan Jr,, Nolan Ulizio*, Andrew David.

Academics/Not Being Nice(1): Brian Cole.

This is a transition class and transition classes are rarely good. By this point Hoke's recruiting had truly imploded as the product on the field became too unwatchable to ignore. Harbaugh inherited just six kids who would end up signing LOIs, one of them a legacy and one a kicker.

Cole, the only top 100 recruit in the class, went up in smoke for violations of team rules before he could enter his second year. Michigan does appear to have a few strikes already in Newsome, Wheatley, and Perry, but the sheer lack of dudes in it and the 2014 class—just 30 players between the two—is worrisome for the next couple years.

It's worth noting that of all the players who left the team after the 2015 season, Cole is the only one who didn't take a medical hardship or get a degree. Anyone concerned about going too Saban should keep that in mind. When at all possible Michigan has fulfilled their primary duty to the departures.

2016

29 men. Harbaugh class #1.

Enrolled (or about to do so): Rashan Gary, Ben Bredeson, Brandon Peters, David Long, Devin Asiasi, Michael Onwenu, Kareem Walker, Dylan Crawford, Lavert Hill, Ahmir Mitchell, Brad Hawkins, Ron Johnson, Carlo Kemp, Devin Bush Jr, Chris Evans, Nick Eubanks, Khaleke Hudson, Eddie McDoom, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Nate Johnson, Quinn Nordin, Josh Uche, Stephen Spanellis, Kingston Davis, Josh Metellus, Sean McKeon, Michael Dwumfour, Devin Gil.

Obviously only a few of these guys are even on campus yet and there is little to say about them as a result. LB Dytarious Johnson remains in academic limbo.

Comments

Needs

April 1st, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^

Out of all the (thankfully minimal) departures, Michael Ferns is the biggest mystery. As an early commit, he was one of the main recruiters for his class. Just looking at the roster, he had to expect that he'd have a very good shot at starting in 2016, and yet he transferred one year into the program. Granted, that was one of the most painful years in program history, but his departure has never really made sense to me. Maybe plain unhappiness at being far from home is the best explanation.

Mich1993

April 1st, 2016 at 1:18 PM ^

I think it's a bit early to worry about the 2014 class depth.  They haven't played mostly because of the success of the 2012 and 2013 class that are still here.  

If you count hype this spring for guys who haven't played yet (a big if I admit), the following look like they will at least be contributing football players:

Peppers, Mone, Cole, Winovich, Bunting, Ways, Furbush and maybe Speight/Marshall/Harris.

That would be hits on 10/16 with potentially 3-4 stars (Peppers, Mone, Cole, ?).  I'll take that.  

Let's check back next year on 2014.

Reader71

April 1st, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^

Agree 100%. The fact that the 2014 class hasn't developed a bunch of starters and contributors has as almost as much to do with the 2012 class being great as it does 2014's talent. There are only so many starters on a football team. It might end up being a bad class, but it's too early to tell.

bronxblue

April 1st, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^

I think depth will be an issue going forward, but not immensely different than in years past. It might mean taking a grad transfer or two more, or starting a freshman or sophomore earlier than you would like, but most teams have to deal with issues like this at some point.

cutter

April 2nd, 2016 at 12:57 AM ^

Michigan loses three starting offensive linemen (Magnuson, Kalis, Braden) out of the six currently on the roster who could likely be considered sure starters (the other three are Cole, Newsome and Kugler).  Dawson and Bushell-Beatty have to be considered question marks at this point IRT the 2017 season, so we may see a couple of redshirt freshmen in the o-line when U-M opens the season in Dallas against Florida.

The defensive line is in an even worse situation with three starters (Wormley, Charlton, Glasgow) and one key back up (Godin) leaving at the end of 2016.  Hurst. Mone, Marshall and Winovich (converted from LB/FB) are going to be the upperclassmen in 2017.  Gary is going to be a key to the d-line and we'll see how Kemp, the two Johnsons and Jones pan out at the DE positions.  It would have been nice to get an additional interior d-lineman in the last class other than Dwumfour and I expect U-M is going to look at getting at least three in this recruiting class.

The secondary is going to take a big hit as well after this season.  I think it's a pretty good assumption that Peppers leaves for the NFL.  Add in Lewis, Stribling and Clark from the CB ranks plus Thomas and Hill as starting safeties and you're staring at a real shortage of experience in the secondary in 2017.  Kinnel and Watson will both be back, but guys who have barely been on campus (or are not in Ann Arbor yet) are going to be expected to contribute in 2017.

You also have to ask yourself what the WR position will look like when Darboh and Chesson are gone.  Perry looks like he's legit, but we're still waiting on Harris.  A lot seems to be riding on Mitchell developing quickly, so that's a wait and see situation.

I'm sure Harbaugh is going to do great as a recruiter, but it's pretty obvious 2017 and perhaps 2018 could be real transition years personnel wise.  Top flight teams have depth, talent, experience and on the field leadership.  Michigan is going to have great depth at some positions (tight end is insane) in 2017, but less so at others after the 2016 season.  The overall talent is going to go up given Harbaugh's recruiting, but the experience is going down.  The "bridge season" between Hoke and Harbaugh should be 2017.