Attrition Watch: April 2016 Comment Count

Brian

With spring practice just about over and Michigan under 85 it's time to 1) check in with how the Hoke-Harbaugh transition is affecting the roster and 2) finally, thankfully drop that damn 2010 class from these posts. We will officially never talk about Demar Dorsey again. We're also moving past 2011 since none of those guys are on the roster any more. If you need to remind yourself of the final verdict on either of those recruiting classes, the December version of this post should suffice. In brief: "argh dammit" and "bleah," respectively.

Quality starters are bold, contributors italics. Walkons denoted with #.

2012

25 players. Only fifth year seniors left. Brady Hoke class #1.

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Devin Funchess, Willie Henry, Kyle Kalis

Enrolled (9): Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden, Matt Godin, Chris Wormley, Jeremy Clark, Ryan Glasgow(#)

Played out eligibility (7): Jarrod Wilson, Sione Houma, AJ Williams, Mario Ojemudia, Joe Bolden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross.

Early NFL draft entry (2): Devin Funchess, Willie Henry

Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer

Transferred for PT (1): Ondre Pipkins

Academics/Not Being Nice (1): Dennis Norfleet.

Not offered fifth year (4): Terry Richardson, Allen Gant, Tom Strobel, Blake Bars.

Since December this class has shed four redshirt juniors who didn't see the field much, if at all, and lost Willie Henry to the NFL draft. That's not much of an impact on the overall results from Brady Hoke's first full class, which was downright terrific. If you add in walk-on Ryan Glasgow, exactly half this class panned out into multi-year starting roles, with five more guys serious contributors. If Michigan had put redshirts on guys like Ojemudia and Houma, who were little-used as freshmen, it would look even better.

The combination of player retention, strikes on sleepers (Chesson, Clark, Glasgow, and Henry were all generic-three-star-or-worse and are likely to go in the NFL draft) and sheer quantity makes this the best recruiting class in the past decade. And that's despite one of the five-stars in the class, Pipkins, failing to make an impact.

2013

27 men. Seniors and redshirt juniors. Brady Hoke class #2.

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Jourdan Lewis, Derrick Green, Logan Tuley-Tillman

Enrolled (17): Jourdan Lewis, Patrick Kugler, Dymonte Thomas, Shane Morris, David Dawson, Henry Poggi, Mike McCray, Taco Charlton, Jake Butt, De'Veon Smith, Ben Gedeon, Maurice Hurst, Delano Hill, Wyatt Shallman, Channing Stribling, Khalid Hill, Scott Sypniewski.

Injury (3): Chris Fox, Jaron Dukes, Reon Dawson.

Transferred for PT (5): Dan Samuelson, Kyle Bosch, Derrick Green, Ross Taylor-Douglas, Damario Jones.

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Logan Tuley-Tillman, Csont'e York

Since December this class has shed five guys. Dukes and Dawson took medical hardships and stayed in school; Green, Taylor-Douglas, and Jones all graduated and will land elsewhere as grad transfers despite having only been in school for three years. (Green and Taylor-Douglas did both enroll early.)

With three major exceptions this is another excellent class, featuring at least two high NFL draft picks and probably a few more. The problems:

  • Shane Morris was a major risk after missing his senior season with mono, especially since there was no QB in the previous class.
  • The WR class was mostly a scramble situation after LaQuon Treadwell opted for the money at Ole Miss. All three players have already left without making an impact.
  • The offensive line class was gutted, largely by things outside of the program's control. Chris Fox's knee was never right after a high school injury; Bosch had personal issues; Tuley-Tillman got charged with a felony; Dan Samuelson couldn't hack it at this level. Only the latter was at all on talent evaluation or development.

Harbaugh papered over the first problem by bringing in Rudock and O'Korn; the other two positions look good… and dangerously thin.

2014

16 men.

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Jabrill Peppers, Ian Bunting, Brady Pallante

Enrolled (15): Jabrill Peppers, Drake Harris, Bryan Mone, Mason Cole, Lawrence Marshall, Chase Winovich, Freddy Canteen, Ian Bunting, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Wilton Speight, Maurice Ways, Noah Furbush, Brandon Watson, Jared Wangler, Brady Pallante.

Transferred for PT(1): Michael Ferns.

Freddy Canteen may be on the verge of exiting, per Harbaugh.

Not much change for these guys yet.  Early yet for many of them to make an impact, I did italicize a few kids who are likely to play roles this year. Ask again after this year.

The small size of the class is not hugely damaging since the two before had 52 kids in them and didn't suffer much attrition until right about now, but when you have such a small class you'd like it to be filled with more top-end guys. That wasn't the case, as everyone after Bunting on the list above is more or less a sleeper type. Seven shots in the dark is more or less expected when you take 25+; in a class of 16 that's the first hint that Hoke's recruiting was falling apart.

2015

14 men. The Hoke/Harbaugh transition class. Harbaugh recruits denoted with *.

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Zach Gentry, Tyrone Wheatley Jr, Keith Washington

Enrolled (13): Zach Gentry*, Tyree Kinnel, Grant Newsome, Alex Malzone, Ty Wheatley Jr*, Shelton Johnson*, Karan Higdon*, Reuben Jones*, Grant Perry*, Keith Washington*, Jon Runyan Jr,, Nolan Ulizio*, Andrew David.

Academics/Not Being Nice(1): Brian Cole.

This is a transition class and transition classes are rarely good. By this point Hoke's recruiting had truly imploded as the product on the field became too unwatchable to ignore. Harbaugh inherited just six kids who would end up signing LOIs, one of them a legacy and one a kicker.

Cole, the only top 100 recruit in the class, went up in smoke for violations of team rules before he could enter his second year. Michigan does appear to have a few strikes already in Newsome, Wheatley, and Perry, but the sheer lack of dudes in it and the 2014 class—just 30 players between the two—is worrisome for the next couple years.

It's worth noting that of all the players who left the team after the 2015 season, Cole is the only one who didn't take a medical hardship or get a degree. Anyone concerned about going too Saban should keep that in mind. When at all possible Michigan has fulfilled their primary duty to the departures.

2016

29 men. Harbaugh class #1.

Enrolled (or about to do so): Rashan Gary, Ben Bredeson, Brandon Peters, David Long, Devin Asiasi, Michael Onwenu, Kareem Walker, Dylan Crawford, Lavert Hill, Ahmir Mitchell, Brad Hawkins, Ron Johnson, Carlo Kemp, Devin Bush Jr, Chris Evans, Nick Eubanks, Khaleke Hudson, Eddie McDoom, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Nate Johnson, Quinn Nordin, Josh Uche, Stephen Spanellis, Kingston Davis, Josh Metellus, Sean McKeon, Michael Dwumfour, Devin Gil.

Obviously only a few of these guys are even on campus yet and there is little to say about them as a result. LB Dytarious Johnson remains in academic limbo.

Comments

Pierre Despereaux

April 1st, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^

I know there's some nice pieces in that 2013 class, but it just seems like it had so much more potential. 

There were so many highly rated guys who left the program, have yet to see the field, or just haven't lived up to the hype yet.

There's still time left for some of those guys, but in my view, that 2013 class is a bit disappointing.

 

NoVaWolverine

April 1st, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

2013 is still pretty darn good w/the exception of the OL, which everyone thought might be the class's centerpiece. Fox, Bosch, LTT -- as Brian notes, not much you could have done to make any of those situations turn out differently, besides perhaps some more due diligence on LTT's character.

What worries me though is that neither Kugler nor Dawson -- both highly rated guys who are now redshirt juniors -- have seriously pushed for a starting spot yet, despite the uneven performance of guys nominally ahead of them (Jack Miller, Kalis, Braden, Magnuson etc.) We're going to need both to be good starters in 2017 to avoid taking a huge step back on the OL next year.

dragonchild

April 1st, 2016 at 12:36 PM ^

He's what happens when your favorite cook is offered, and accepts, a "dream job" running a major international restuarant franchise.  He brings in his buddies, sticks to his old-fashioned habits that served him well for years, tries to put everything onto a single Excel spreadsheet. . . and implodes because that just don't scale.

The guy's a craftsman.  The D-linemen he recruited and developed are awesome.  I'd recommend him as a D-line position coach any day.  But Michigan isn't just a big-time program; it's big, period.  We have regents, alumni, press, underdogs that scour tape 200 hours a week just to take down Michigan, and rivals that are well-funded war machines.

Harbaugh's a good QB coach but he also has those CEO qualities that are needed to run. . . well, Michigan.

1VaBlue1

April 1st, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^

And very true, also.  I would bring Hoke back as a DL coach (but only if Mattison retired), or as a Def Assistant, in a relative heartbeat.  (It's easy to say - we all know that it will never happen!)  But I think he maxed out as a position coach.  His time at Ball St and SDSU, while fairly successful, was due a LOT to non-Power 5 competition.  He's a good defensive assistant that got in over his head.  I feel less animosity towards him than I do Rich Rod.  At least Hoke cared about the players.  (Obvious concussion jokes aside...)

RobSk

April 1st, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

next to the 13,14,15 classes is just amazing. I mean seriously, you go 2 or 3 guys deep in each of those classes as potentially good players. The 2016 class, the **14th** guy on the list is Devin Bush, a probable STARTER, the 16th is Nick Eubanks, and the 17th is FRICKIN Khaleke Hudson.  I seriously think Hudson or Eubanks would be the 3rd or 4th best player in any of the previous 3 classes.

Seeing it like this just blows me away.

   Rob

PS - FWIW, I totally get that we have WAY more info on 2013/14 and even 15 guys than we do 16, but even trying to put my mind back where I was when those classes came in, this list of players just seems enormously more impressive.

Tacopants

April 1st, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^

There's about a 50% hit rate in Hoke's 4*+ recruiting which is more or less around the average - it's just that his hits and misses all came bunched together position wise - possibly due to development reasons.

 

Realistically you're hoping for similar results as the 2012/2013 class - I don't think any school has had anything even close to 20 guys in the same recruiting class be drafted.

M-Dog

April 1st, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

Say what you want, but Hoke could recruit.  If 2016 is a big year, it will be largely because of Hoke recruits.

Now developing those recruits is another story.

When we are not shooting ourselves in the foot, there is a natural floor on Michigan recruiting that is no worse than top 15, usually closer to top 10.  That's pretty comforting given the last decade.

Of course with Harbaugh, that floor moves to more like top 5.  Pretty much just like Ohio State.

And when you can develop that talent . . . that's the stuff National Champions are made of.

 

gwkrlghl

April 1st, 2016 at 12:36 PM ^

is that Brady did a very nice job of leaving Harbaugh a stocked cupboard from the 2012, 2013, and 2014 classes. I suspect with 2016 looking very good that Harbaugh & Co's coaching skills will gloss that class over if they don't pan out well

Kevin13

April 1st, 2016 at 12:40 PM ^

due to a great 2012 class. We are going to need some young players to step up in 2017 though as much of the starting talent this year will depart.  This 2016 class was critical for future success and hopefully most can redshirt and be ready to play next year.

Reader71

April 1st, 2016 at 1:39 PM ^

In the blog's defense, the post is primarily about recruiting, and walk-ons aren't usually recruited. I don't think it was meant as derogatory. That said, I think people should forget about recruiting, stars, and scholarship status as soon as the guys get to campus. They're all Michigan ballplayers. I've a friend who kept hoping for the Glasgows to be replaced by scholarship recruits. This despite them being the best players at their respective positions and having spools of film showing that the Glasgows were in fact good. And the recruits having never played a down. The recruiting news industry has created a class of really weird fans.

Hail-Storm

April 1st, 2016 at 2:31 PM ^

Even this blog was hoping a more athletic recruited safety would replace Kovacs after his first season, despite his consistancy. This quickly changed his next year playing, but with all of the sites evaluating players, it's hard to believe that a guy hardly recruited could be better than these guys everyone pegs as can't misses.

It sounds like (from outside anyway) that the walk ons have always been respected by the team and that's probably the most important stamp of approval. 

kehnonymous

April 1st, 2016 at 12:51 PM ^

It's still not clear that we'll see notable contributions from the "lower" half (non-italicized/bolded peeps) of the 2014 class - many of them may be flat out supplanted bt the 2016 class because there is - on paper, at least - a pretty big talent gap.  Obviously I hope many of those guys - Drake Harris, JBB and Ways, in particular - get a new lease on life.  If we can hit on at least a third of the 2014 guys who haven't seen the field that'll go a long way to holding the fort down until such time that the 2016 class' ascendancy.

One thing about the 2016 class is that it's huuuuge.  As such, redshirt-staggering will make it almost seem like two classes and there's also going to be more attrition than we've been used to seeing because that is a pattern with Harbaugh.  

Just remember, though, when we all freak out about needlessly burned redshirts in a few years is - while we may not be wrong, coaches AND players necessarily don't think about redshirts the same way we fans do.  95% of players want to play now and 100% of coaches want to win now so if they think a guy fresh out of high school is ready to see the field, he's gonna be on the field, redshirt conservation be damned.

stephenrjking

April 1st, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^

I'm starting to think that an extra burned redshirt or two this season may be justified if a guy can help win a game. As I mention in my own post further down (which is influenced by the good thoughts here) I think Michigan really has to meet high expectations this season to show that the Harbaugh regime is a solid winner. There's just no way next year can possibly be as good with the talent we stand to lose.

So if Harbaugh torches a redshirt just to add a wrinkle to a personnel package that scores key points in a close road win at Michigan State, I think it's a good choice.

BuckNekked

April 1st, 2016 at 1:54 PM ^

Redshirts are overrated by this board. They work in the same way that 22 year old freshmen in hockey works for less talented squads. An obvious caveat is linemen on both sides of the ball.

Saban and Meyer have shown that a big key to maintaining championship level squads is turning over the roster. Im not advocating "processing" guys who arent playing but I think its a good move to push all the guys, whether its Rashan Gary or a random PWO, to get their degrees in three years. This leaves attractive options for the players to find PT elsewhere as grad transfers and helps the team keep the talent flowing. And if its a guy who did redshirt he potentially has 2 years to play elsewhere.

Id like to make it clear that I wish every guy who walks through the doors of Schembechler Hall get his Michigan degree.

funkywolve

April 1st, 2016 at 1:49 PM ^

Harbaugh's philosophy is about competition.  You compete for the job, and if you win you play.  Doesn't matter whether you're a 5th yr senior or a true frosh.  He's also stated the best way to get better is to play, and by playing he doesn't mean in practice, he means on Saturdays.  

bacon

April 1st, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^

Ty Isaac wasn't a recruit in the 2013 class, but the ground work was laid and I think he should be considered in that class. He's still here and could contribute this year and next. Definite plus for the class if he does.

stephenrjking

April 1st, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^

It's nice to see that first Hoke class that we were excited about turn out so well. Frankly, it took a better coach to develop those guys, but they are developing. 

The problem is that, with exceptions for guys like Peppers, two classes of guys who are supposed to be emerging as key contributors are small and underwhelming. That 2014 class doesn't have any depth to show for at all yet. Those would be the guys we would count on to keep a run of success going next season if we have a good year, and...

Well, the best player in that class will be a first-round draft pick in a year. 

Harbaugh has to get his young guys good and he has to do it fast. This does, however, help explain why Michigan is moving older guys so rapidly. It's good that they're getting medicals and/or degrees; there is also clearly a reason Harbaugh isn't keeping anyone marginal for a fifth year. He needs volume in new classes to find guys to play next season.

Stuff like this helps round out the picture that can get lost in threads that gripe about why some guys are leaving the program when we don't think they have to. Harbaugh has a huge, two-season hole of depth and talent he needs to fill fast.

And it makes this year that much more important, because however high we climb this season, we probably drop a bit in the next. A disappointing 8-4 season would not only be a step back, but be a serious momentum-killer for years in recruiting.

N. Campus Tech

April 1st, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^

Enjoy 2016. It should be a fun season. 

The holes in the 2013 and 2014 classes are going to cause serious problems on the field in 2017 and maybe 2018, unless the underclassmen can step up.

The Harbaugh Death Star will be fully operational for the 2019 season.

stephenrjking

April 1st, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^

This is why I've become more convinced that this season has a lot riding on it. I came out of last season thinking, "Cool! Wouldn't it be exciting if we competed for a playoff spot!"

I'm starting to lean toward, "Man, we need to compete for a playoff spot." Because a solid season basically entrenches the trajectory. People aren't going to fret about a rivalry loss or two and some headscratching games with a roster of young players in 2017 if Harbaugh has already proven that he can win 11 or 12 games in a season.

But recruits will start wondering if he's as good as he's cracked up to be if we lose four games this year and then take a step back.

CorkyCole

April 1st, 2016 at 1:58 PM ^

I agree with where you're coming from here. When you think about the concerns about OL depth and how three of our O-Line starters will graduate after this year, THAT is concerning to me.

Also, another LBer is gone. Jourdan Lewis is gone. Peppers more than likely gone. There are a lot of fantastic players that are leaving after this season, so I have a hard time not seeing a few bumps and bruises on the 2017 roster.

That being said, I think we are going to see a VERY exciting team in 2017 with a bunch of young talent with excellent potential. May not be a championship team, but I wouldn't put it over Harbaugh's head to turn that team into a championship quality team by year's end.

The one worry with 2017 is will everyone be patient enough to see that team develop. I could see a hickup or two early, and I think we need to understand that Harbaugh's guys will only really be sophomores/freshmen. 2018 is where I believe we truly will see where this team is going to be under Harbaugh regardless of how 2017 ends up.

This season has a LOT to do with the current staff's ability to develop Hoke's recruits. We saw that development last year, so I think there's a lot of reason to still expect a very fun 2017 with some challenges but also successes.