I copied this from the colin post which was a great post, i just didnt want my comment to get lost. For some reason i get the feeling that people that are really into stats think that coaches, or me are against them, and somehow we need to be taught how improtant they are. Or that old school coaches resist stats or something like that. Its really not that at all, in fact i have more stats than some of you knew exsisted. I know going into a game the tendencies of an offense depending on everything from personal groups, side of the field they are on, down and distance of course, to things like percentage of touches of certain reievers on third down plays. I have specific defense for hash marks bassed on the offensive tendencies from that hash mark. But once the game begins, i have to adjust to what that coach is doing ON THAT DAY We use all kinds of stats in helping to create game plans. BUT they never tell us who is gong to win or loose, or how many points we are going to give up, or how many throws someons is going to complete against us..
this makes even more of a mystery to me why you guys get so emotionally involved in games. Sounds to me like you already know what a person is going to do, what he isnt going to do, and how the game is going to end up before it even happens.
yet after the games i spend half my afternoon trying to talk some of you down from the cliff, and keeping you positive about things.
But then again maybe thats why some of you blame coaches for everything, you expect the stats to be true every time, and if its not, its the coaches fault. But when teams are expected to beat us, why woudl you get upset? i dont get it.
truth of the matter is that most time we expect stats to not play out. if beenie is averaging 100 yards per game, we are trying to keep him under 100... if chad henne completes 60% of his passes, AS A DC. I AM ABSOLUTELY TRYING TO KEEP HIM FROM THAT, because that is obviosly the strength of the offense. We try to take away strengths, we use stats to tell us what a team has been good at, then devise a plan to make them suck at it. IF we do it right we win, if we dont they win.... Teams win when stats dont play out, teams loose when they dont play out. Stats help me prepare for what i need to stop, and what i can expect to see, but often go out the window when the games begin becasue of adjustments, and other unforseen circumstances. Im not playing The state champions average for the year, when we meet them in the playoffs, im playing their stats for that game, if i shut down their running game, i have to be ready for what they will do next, reagardless of what their stats say. If their QB is off that night, i have to play for that tendecny, not the tendency over the course of the entire year. at least in my 25 years of playing at every level, and coaching a 4-a highschool to a top ten defensive season in the state, thats what i have seen.
but obviously i dont know everything otherwise i would be more famous than i am. And i very well could be wrong about everything...