I know this is the last thing any of us want to do right now (especially after the debacle in Happy Valley), but I have to talk about Notre Dame. Usually, I try to avoid mentioning or even thinking about the Irish – unless they’re in the midst / aftermath of a 4-8 season – but since they won a marquee game in such decisive fashion and appear to be a legit playoff contender, I have to do it.

USC traveled to South Bend and left sporting a 49-14 loss and, as the score suggests, the game was never close. The Irish went three-and-out on their first possession and were quickly rewarded by a lost USC fumble on their first play from scrimmage. They tacked on two touchdowns in rapid succession after that, and USC responded with their first sustained drive of the game – the Trojans got the ball into the red zone and, on third down, ND was called for a defensive holding penalty, but USC wasn’t awarded the automatic first down. They were stopped on third-and-one and shanked the subsequent field goal attempt. It was that kind of night. Notre Dame was forced to punt on their next drive, but USC fumbled the ball away inside their own ten-yard line and the game was 21-0 and destined for two and a half quarters of garbage time.

Notre Dame was dominant on the ground yet again; they rank first nationally in rushing S&P+. As usual, QB Brandon Wimbush (116 sack-adjusted rushing yards, four total touchdowns) and RB Josh Adams (over ten yards per carry on 19 touches, three touchdowns) led the way. The two have been excellent all season and have brought the Irish to “triple-option against a team that definitely hasn’t prepped their triple-option defense well enough” levels of production. The defense and special teams forced three total turnovers, Wimbush had a few well-timed downfield completions, and it was a dominant performance overall.

At this point, it’s clear that USC was overrated entering the season: a closer than expected win over Western Michigan in the opener foreshadowed the difficulties that the Trojans have faced over the last month – they suffered their first loss to a good Washington State squad on the road by three (certainly respectable), barely survived Utah at home, and were destroyed by Notre Dame. They could still win the Pac-12 South – their games against the Arizona schools, both better than expected, over the next two weeks will go a long way in determining that division’s trajectory – but S&P+ has them as a fringe Top 25 team and that seems about right. Even if they do get to nine or ten wins (they’re 6-2 right now), it would be a disappointment relative to 2016’s excellent finish and the accompanying crescendo of offseason hype.

Anyways, back to Notre Dame. They have a loss already – a single-point defeat to Georgia in Week 2 when we didn’t realize how good both teams were – so they probably can’t afford another, especially because they don’t have a conference championship game (and a chance for an extra quality win) to look forward to. The remaining schedule is difficult: the Irish host NC State next week, travel to currently undefeated Miami two weeks after that, and finish the season with a trip out west to face Stanford. The odds that ND makes it through the rest of the season unscathed are fairly slim (S&P+ gives them a 12.3% chance), but it seems like they’re a playoff lock if they win out and could sneak in with two losses if there’s enough carnage elsewhere.

[More on the week that was after the JUMP]

The Big 12 title race will be fascinating. Most leagues have some degree of clarity at the top, but not here: TCU is the only undefeated team in conference play, and there are four one-loss teams behind them – Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and West Virginia. They’re the only power conference without divisions, and they brought back a conference championship game that will feature a rematch between the ostensible top two teams at Jerryworld. Whether that game will help or hurt the best team’s playoff chances is unclear (it seems like it would be an unnecessary chance for a Top 4 team to take a loss, but I guess it could theoretically provide the quality win that pushes a team into the field from just outside of it).

S&P says that the top two teams are TCU (#6) and OSU (#8); earlier this season, the Frogs won decisively in Stillwater. Oklahoma (#14) has a fire-breathing offense and a very vulnerable defense; Iowa State (#24) and West Virginia (#30) are better than expected, but clearly behind the rest of the frontrunners in terms of quality. There will be plenty of chances for these teams to differentiate themselves, as each has three games remaining against the others in the group. TCU obliterated Kansas in a nationally televised game – Fox must have decided to put a crappy game on their main station with Game 7 of the ALCS on FS1 in the same time slot – and it took the Jayhawks until the fourth quarter to ensure that they wouldn’t finish the game with negative yardage. Iowa State handled Texas Tech easily (an impressive result that will fly under the radar); West Virginia almost blew a 38-13 lead against a winless Baylor squad.

ISU and WVU could theoretically win the conference, but both have two losses already and are almost guaranteed to receive more. That leaves TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma as the Big 12’s playoff hopefuls – and OSU and OU both flirted with disastrous road losses this past weekend in two vastly different games: the Cowboys somehow engaged in a 13-10 OT slugfest with Texas and the Sooners put up a classic 42-35 Big 12 shootout with Kansas State. Both teams trailed heading into the fourth quarter, but neither suffered the loss that almost surely would have pushed them out of the playoff picture.

Oklahoma State’s trip to Austin was baffling, not because the game was close (Texas has lost four games, but three were in very tight games), but because neither offense was able to get going. After two drives featuring one first down, Oklahoma State quickly drove the length of the field and scored – Mason Rudolph found four different targets in the passing game and JD King punched the ball into the end zone from seven yards out. The Cowboys put together a sustained drive following a Longhorn three-and-out, but lead back Justice Hill fumbled the ball in the red zone at the beginning of the second quarter. Texas took advantage shortly thereafter, as Sam Ehlinger completed a short curl to speedy receiver John Burt, who broke a tackle, tight-roped down the sideline, and ran for 90 yards before getting tripped up at the two. They evened the game on the next play with a touchdown.

The teams traded punts for the rest of the half, and Texas opened the second stanza with a long drive that stalled out inside the Oklahoma State five-yard line and resulted in a field goal. The Cowboys returned the favor at the beginning of the fourth quarter, as they were unable to turn a sustained drive that produced a first-and-goal from the one-yard line into a touchdown and settled for three to tie the game. Every drive for the rest of regulation came up empty; all ended in punts except for one – a long completion from Rudolph to Marcell Ateman put OSU into the red zone, but the Cowboys missed a field goal. Texas forced a three-and-out to start overtime and Oklahoma State took a three point lead. The Longhorns were aided by a pass interference penalty on the next series and had the ball at the six-yard line – on third down, instead of throwing the ball out of bounds, Ehlinger lofted the ball directly to a defensive back without a receiver in the area to end the game with an inexplicable interception.

Oklahoma’s win in Manhattan over Kansas State had a completely different blueprint. The game started off with a bang, as KSU’s Alex Barnes took a zone read handoff up the middle for 75 yards and a touchdown. Only one first half drive from either team ended in a punt: Kansas State was extremely effective running the ball and scored three touchdowns on their first four possessions (they later threw an interception that was returned to the ten-yard line and held OU to a field goal on the following series); Oklahoma had four possessions reach the red zone, but only totaled ten points in the first half. The Sooners were able to move the ball well enough and just didn’t convert their opportunities. Sooners were able to turn those long drives into points in the second half, and the defense was finally able to slow down Kansas State’s rushing attack in the third quarter.

Oklahoma scored on their first three possessions of the half and pulled out to a 28-21 lead after trailing by 11 at halftime – Baker Mayfield capped two of those long drives with rushing touchdowns. The Sooners were forced to punt on their next series and the snap flew past the punter, setting up a short field for a Kansas State offense that had struggled to get going. The Wildcats tied the game, but Oklahoma took the lead back with a touchdown just over a minute of game time later. KSU quarterback Alex Delton (who had almost twice as many rushing attempts as passing attempts) started the next possession with a long pass to Byron Pringle, and KSU tied the game again at 35 with a touchdown pass. Oklahoma drove the ball into field goal range, and running back Rodney Anderson scored the game-winning touchdown after bouncing outside and taking it 22 yards into the end zone with seven seconds left in the game.

Oklahoma State travels to West Virginia and TCU travels to Iowa State on Saturday. Perhaps there will be an upset this week.

[Patrick Barron]

Other results of note:

• Well, Michigan took one on the chin, and Penn State looked to be every bit the playoff contender they’re supposed to be. The first five minutes set the tone for the rest of the game: Saquon Barkley lined up as the quarterback (with Trace McSorley as the running back) and sprinted 69 yards for the touchdown, Michigan responded with a meek three-and-out, and Penn State scored quickly again. While the Wolverines were able to pull within a point late in the second half, PSU finished the game with four unanswered touchdowns in the blowout. It’s clear that Michigan’s pretty average; it looks far more like the rebuilding year some were bracing for than what the optimists hoped for in September. Penn State turned in their best performance of the season, eviscerated a previously stout Michigan defense, and will be taking their undefeated record to Columbus on Saturday for a showdown against Ohio State. That game will likely determine the Big Ten East champ and will have a substantial impact on the playoff race; before this past weekend, I was fairly confident in an Ohio State win, but Joe Moorhead and the Penn State offense were impressive enough to make me reconsider.
• Michigan State kept their undefeated conference record alive with a home win over Indiana, abetted heavily by Hoosier offensive coordinator Mike DeBord. The game was tied at 3 when IU kicked a field goal to take the lead with five minutes left in the third quarter; State was stopped on fourth-and-three in Indiana territory on the next drive. Nursing a three point lead, the Hoosiers marched into the red zone, mostly via Peyton Ramsey’s arm, but turtled once they got close to the end zone: DeBord called three straight zone left plays (I know you’re shocked!) and IU kicked a field goal on fourth-and-one at the two-yard line to go up 9-3. A few drives later, Michigan State scored the first touchdown of the game on a series that was aided by an uncalled hold on third-and-forever and took the lead. Indiana responded with a three-and-out, and State went into the four minute drill: LJ Scott ran the ball into the end zone to take a 17-9 lead when MSU could have kneeled out the rest of the clock, but Indiana couldn’t take advantage on the following drive.
• Miami won their third one-score game in a row, defeating Syracuse 27-19 in a sloppy contest. The Hurricanes still haven’t lost, and while the schedule gets tougher in a couple weeks with back-to-back games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, they’re the Coastal favorites and could make it to the playoff if they wind up winning the ACC – even if they drop a game somewhere. Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey was masterful in their upset win over Clemson, but played terribly against Miami: he completed 32% of his passes for 2.7 yards per attempt, and had four picks. Somehow the Orange were still in the game well into the fourth quarter and kicked a field goal to pull the score to 20-19, but Miami running back Travis Homer helped seal the win with a rushing touchdown – Syracuse turned the ball over on downs with a minute and a half left.
• Louisville let Florida State come back, but a late FSU turnover (while they were in position to score) and a quick Cardinal drive gave Louisville a 31-28 win with a last-second field goal. The Seminoles dropped to 2-4 on the season and are legitimately in danger of missing a bowl game; it would be hilarious if FSU met Florida in a matchup of 5-5 teams in the season finale.
• The top of the SEC West looked strong: Alabama destroyed Tennessee (and Butch Jones still hasn’t been fired yet, which is sort of incredible), Auburn routed Arkansas, and LSU took care of Ole Miss. Surprisingly, Mississippi State also won in blowout fashion over a 5-1 Kentucky team; Nick Fitzgerald went for over a hundred yards passing and rushing and accounted for four total touchdowns. Florida and Georgia were on a bye ahead of their rivalry game – UGA should be a heavy favorite, but Florida’s won three in a row in the series and weird stuff happens in this game.
• At the risk of provoking some stupid comments about Rich Rodriguez, I should mention that Arizona moved to 5-2 with a double overtime win at Cal. The Bears went for two and a pass was deflected to give the Wildcats a 45-44 win. Former backup quarterback Khalil Tate continued to amaze: he’s run for a 70-yard touchdown in each of his three starts and has totaled 694 yards on the ground over those games. In his first start against Colorado a couple weeks ago, he ran for 327 yards and four touchdowns. Tate’s one of the more electric players in college football, and while Arizona’s schedule gets significantly tougher from here, he’s unleashed a potent U of A offense that will give almost any opponent trouble.
• I rarely discuss the Group of Five, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the American: USF and UCF notched close wins on the road against option teams (Tulane and Navy, respectively) and both are still undefeated. While I’m skeptical that the playoff committee will give a spot to a mid-major team, the two are well-regarded according to S&P+ (UCF is #9, USF is #15) and will face each other in the season finale. Each have one relatively tricky game left before that – as well as two near-guarantee wins – but there’s a chance it could be matchup of undefeated teams and there’s a chance that the winner could sneak into the playoff if there aren’t enough power conference teams with one loss or fewer.