2016 Week Three CFB Bullets Comment Count

Alex Cook

osuou

[Kevin Jairaj – USA Today]

Week Three gave us a slate of appealing games, especially at the top: the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the rankings (Alabama, Florida State, and Ohi7o State) traveled to ranked foes (Ole Miss, Louisville, and Oklahoma, respectively). Unfortunately, only one of those games lived up to the billing, as Ole Miss ran out to a huge lead against Alabama – only to blow it in what was eventually a 48-43 shootout. The other two weren’t competitive: Ohio State manhandled Oklahoma, 45-24, in a long-hyped matchup; Louisville absolutely destroyed Florida State – Lamar Jackson tallied five touchdowns and coasted to a 63-20 win that might slightly understand the level of blowout that this was.

As we settle into conference play, there are already some pretty valuable data points that might shape the rest of the season – Week One was a much ballyhooed schedule of games, but Week Three shaped the narrative of the upcoming season perhaps just as well.

Big 10

--- The narrative after the OHIO STATE – Oklahoma game seems to be that the Buckeyes – despite their youth and / or inexperience – were the la crème de la crème of high school croots (which is undeniably true) and Oklahoma’s were inferior (also true). That’s reductive though: sure the difference in sheer “talent” was apparent early on, was felt most acutely in the trenches, and held up throughout the game. Still, the explanations for the Buckeyes’ routine win over an erstwhile playoff team also boils down to two other things: JT Barrett was far better than OU QB Baker Mayfield (and threw four touchdowns to burgeoning star WR Noah Brown), and Urban Meyer gives OSU a huge advantage over Bob Stoops and Oklahoma. Because the Sooners now sit at 1-2 following losses that weren’t close, there’s a natural reaction to dismiss them – but credit should go to Houston and Ohio State for so easily winning two of the marquee national non-conference fixtures of the season. After three games, we can pretty much tell that the combination of Meyer, Barrett, and the level of raw talent on the roster will overcome most concerns and the Buckeyes will be a playoff frontrunner until at least the last two games against MSU and UM.

[more on the week that was after the JUMP]

--- Speaking of MICHIGAN STATE, the Spartans had an impressive win over Notre Dame and the fears elicited by a sleepwalking Week One victory over FCS Furman are mostly assuaged. MSU raced out to a 36-7 lead with a few minutes left in the third; even though Notre Dame scored three straight touchdowns and had the ball with a chance to tie, MSU’s defense forced a punt, State held on and worked a successful four-minute clock-killing drive to avoid putting itself at serious risk of what could have been the worst collapse they’d ever had. Even though the Spartan defense proved vulnerable against the pass (344 passing yards from ND QB DeShone Kizer), MSU was able to outrush the Irish by 203 yards – the difference between 5.0 and 2.3 yards per carry (as well as a +2 in the turnover margin for State) was enough to get them the win. At 1-2, Notre Dame is out of the playoff race – and could be in for a rough season, at least relative to the stable Brian Kelly era. The Irish defense in particular clearly needs work after getting shredded by Texas and MSU.

--- The B1G East, at least at the top, looks to be as good of a division as there is in college football. MICHIGAN turned in the worst performance of the “Big Three” and still won by three scores: the Wolverines started the game about as badly as possible but outscored Colorado 38-7 after the first quarter and, after QB Sefo Liufau was knocked out of the game with an injury, the result of the game wasn’t really in doubt. Even with some hiccups in all three phases, Michigan had Jabrill Peppers and he turned in perhaps his best day in a winged helmet, which is hell for any middling-at-best Pac-12 team to contend with. It was a step up in competition for UM and they really didn’t handle it well early on – but still had ten-plus minutes of garbage time (the good kind) at the end.

--- Elsewhere in the B1G East – which is not so good outside of the Meyer-Harbaugh-Dantonio triumvirate of DOOM – were wins that were closer than they should have been: PENN STATE beat Temple by a touchdown (a major improvement on their three-score loss to the Owls last season), MARYLAND was taken to two overtimes by UCF, and RUTGERS went down to New Mexico but came back to win by nine.

091816.S.FF.Bison2.Pedersen

[Michael Vosburg – Forum]

--- For some reason, IOWA decided to schedule the best team in FCS – which I can personally attest is not a good idea – and were rewarded with a 23-21 heartbreaking loss to North Dakota State, who beat their first ranked opponent in their six-game FBS winning streak. After a long drive to score a touchdown and pull within a point at 21-20, North Dakota State attempted to go for two and didn’t get it. There was enough time for them to kick the ball to Iowa, who promptly gave it back after some perfunctory clock-killing plays, leading to a last-second field goal from the Bison. CJ Beathard threw a pick-six for Iowa but otherwise played decently; the same cannot be said of the Hawkeye running game or run defense: NDSU ran the ball for 205 more yards than Iowa.

--- On the other side of the coin, NEBRASKA hosted Oregon, a ranked opponent (that probably shouldn’t have been, but whatever), and won a back-and-forth affair 35-32; The Ducks went for two on all five of their touchdowns and only converted once – and that was their margin of loss. Tommy Armstrong shined against Brady Hoke’s Oregon defense, accounting for almost 300 total yards and scoring four touchdowns, with no interceptions. The Huskers couldn’t stop the run at all – UO had 336 yards at 7.1 yards per carry – but still came away with what’s probably the best win in the Mike Riley era so far (that or the bowl game last year). The Huskers do have to travel to Madison, Columbus, and Iowa City, but they could contend in the B1G West.

--- WISCONSIN panicked and switched quarterbacks during a narrower-than-expected 23-17 win over Georgia State, who was a five-touchdown underdog. The Badgers had less than four yards per carry against the Panthers. NORTHWESTERN was better, though still not good, on offense in a 24-13 win over Duke. ILLINOIS rushed for just three yards in a 34-10 blowout loss at home against Western Michigan, who’s beaten the two Big Ten teams from the state of Illinois. Would WMU win the B1G West? Maybe!

bamaolemiss

[James Hugh – AP]

SEC

--- For the second time this season, OLE MISS ran out to a huge lead against a well-regarded opponent, only to lose after collapsing and giving up a ton of points; within a minute of the Rebels going up 24-3, ALABAMA answered with a touchdown – and evened up the score within seven minutes of game time. As DT Jonathan Allen returned an interception for a long touchdown with about five minutes left, Bama leapt out to a three-score lead; two late Ole Miss touchdowns made the final margin close. Freshman QB Jalen Hurts only threw for 158 yards for the Tide, but he was the linchpin of a rush offense that worked the Rebel defense for seven yards per carry. Alabama was actually outgained by Ole Miss, who put up over 500 yards for total offense, mostly through the air, but the offense was good enough to make up for that poor defensive performance. Even though Ole Miss is now 1-2 on the season, that might have been Alabama’s toughest game – and for the first time in three years, the Tide escaped that fixture with a win. It almost goes without saying that they’re the heavy favorite to capture the league’s playoff bid – their third in a row.

--- There were two other intradivisional matchups in the SEC West this week. TEXAS A&M traveled to AUBURN and came away with what was an easy win; the Aggies kicked five field goals and a late 89-yard touchdown from freshman Trayveon Williams was the cherry on top of a 29-16 win. Auburn has now lost six straight SEC games at home and the Gus Malzahn offense is still a shadow of what it once was, putting his job in jeopardy. LSU led MISSISSIPPI STATE 23-3 at halftime… and eventually won by the score of 23-20. Leonard Fournette scored two touchdowns and ran for a hard-fought 147 yards – Purdue transfer Danny Etling wasn’t anything special in his first start for the Tigers. MSU scored two touchdowns in the last five minutes of the game and had the ball with the chance to tie with a field goal, but the Tiger defense harassed the Bulldogs into a four-and-out.

--- There was one game between SEC East teams: GEORGIA pulled out a win at MISSOURI after scoring on fourth-and-ten in the game’s waning moments. UGA threw the ball 55 times with true freshman QB Jacob Eason, who hit that game-winning touchdown but who also totaled just 5.6 yards per attempt (star RB Nick Chubb had 19 carries and just 63 yards). Missouri outgained Georgia but turned the ball over five times (to finish –4 in TO margin); that they were able to stay in that game with that number of self-destructive plays is sort of impressive in its own right. The last turnover came on a fumbled reception down the field during Missouri’s attempt to answer Georgia’s late scoring drive.

--- Some non-conference games ended with large margins of victory): FLORIDA, ARKANSAS, and KENTUCKY (who allowed 42 points in three quarters to New Mexico State, but still won by three scores) were on the right side of big wins, VANDERBILT was on the wrong end, losing to Georgia Tech 38-7. TENNESSEE wasn’t ever in serious danger of losing to Ohio, but never pulled away from the Bobcats. SOUTH CAROLINA beat East Carolina, who’d already beaten a Power Five opponent this season.

jacksonfsu

[Jamie Rhodes – USA Today]

ACC

--- LOUISVILLE looked great through two weeks of the season, with an asterisk because of opponent quality. Week Three provided a tough test in the form of FLORIDA STATE, the most prestigious program in the conference, ranked #2 in the country. Lamar Jackson, Louisville QB and runaway September Heisman winner, shredded the Seminole defense (which, to be fair, was down its best player, Derwin James) en route to five total touchdowns and a 63-20 beatdown. The Cardinal defense should come in for praise as well, as they bottled up FSU RB Dalvin Cook, harassed QB Deondre Francois all game, and only gave up ten points until backups were playing freely for both sides. Louisville’s win was the best of this young football season, and even though they travel to CLEMSON (who destroyed an FCS team) in two weeks, they have a great shot at winning that game. A November trip to Houston looms in what could be an extremely important game for the playoff picture. With Jackson at the helm and with the defense playing at a very high level, Louisville seems like a decent bet to win the conference and contend for a playoff bid.

--- Some other ACC games ended in blowouts. MIAMI traveled to Appalachian State for some reason and won 45-10, GEORGIA TECH routed Vanderbilt, Scot Loeffler’s old employer (VIRGINIA TECH) beat his new one (BOSTON COLLEGE) 49-0, NORTH CAROLINA, NC STATE, and WAKE FOREST beat FCS teams by multiple scores. SYRACUSE was on the wrong end of a blowout: they hosted South Florida and led 17-0 after the opening quarter… and were outscored 45-3 after that.

--- The Orange weren’t the only team to lose a non-conference game. DUKE fell to 1-2 with a loss to Northwestern, UConn beat VIRGINIA on a last-second field goal in Charlottesville, and PITT lost to Oklahoma State – giving up well over 500 yards passing in the process. Pat Narduzzi’s defense has now conceded an average of 42 points over the last two games against quality opponents. Their matchup at North Carolina – one that will go a long way in determining the winner of the Coastal – is this weekend.

OSU PITT

[Chris Landsberger – The Oklahoman]

Big 12

--- That OKLAHOMA STATE win over Pitt was the best result for the Big 12 this weekend. It was a back-and-forth affair that ended when Oklahoma State threw an 86-yard pass to set up a short rushing TD with a minute and a half left. According to script, the Cowboys spent most of the day passing (and Pitt did the opposite and kept the ball on the ground): Mason Rudolph threw for 11.7 yards per attempt on 46 passes and James Washington put up perhaps the best stat line of the year so far – 9 catches for 296 yards and two touchdowns. After OSU lost a heartbreaker to Central Michigan (that shouldn’t have happened, according to the rules (still: lol)), this was a nice response and reaffirms the belief that Oklahoma State is still one of the better teams in the conference.

--- The rest of Week Three was not good for the Big 12. OKLAHOMA were soundly beaten by Ohio State at home and the Sooners – with losses against two teams that are probably better than anyone in the Big 12 already – might still be a good bet to win the conference. Or the could go 7-5. TEXAS went to Cal and came away with a 50-43 shootout loss. The Longhorns predictably ran the ball well – 6 yards per carry on 51 attempts, four touchdowns – and the quarterback tandem worked just fine, but the secondary was eviscerated by Davis Webb and the Cal “Bear” Raid offense. KANSAS lost to Memphis by 36.

--- Positive results from around the conference weren’t significant – TEXAS TECH gave up 45 points to Louisiana Tech but still won; KANSAS STATE routed Florida Atlantic; BAYLOR eventually pulled away to win comfortably at Rice. There was one conference game in Week Three: TCU defeated IOWA STATE 41-20.

caltexas

[Brian Bahr – Getty]

Pac-12

--- Despite the presence of eventual top draft pick Jared Goff at QB, CAL hadn’t notched a huge win yet under Sonny Dykes; Texas came into this game ranked #11 after the season-opening win over Notre Dame. Perhaps that game foreshadowed this one – Brian Kelly was content to let his team air it out against the UT pass defense and Cal loves to throw the ball about as much as anyone. The Bears were outgained, but were +2 in the turnover margin – their offense played mistake-free football and the trio of QB Davis Webb, RB Vin Enwere, and WR Chad Hansen provided enough fireworks to outscore the Longhorns. Gaining traction in the division dominated by Stanford – theoretically a team that should handle Cal and its style with ease – will be difficult, but after losing a star QB and almost losing their coach, the Bears have a major September victory that could signal a step in the right direction.

--- Speaking of STANFORD, they had their first test of the season and as is their wont, they put USC in a sleeper hold for a few hours to get a workmanlike 27-10. The Cardinal leaned heavily on Christian McCaffery (which is not a bad strategy, because of how good he is) for 34 offensive touches and the Heisman candidate produced 283 yards and two touchdowns. While the general statistical profile of the game was pretty even – similar total yards, one turnover for each team – McCaffery’s individual brilliance was the difference in creating scoring opportunities; neither team’s quarterbacks played well and the Stanford front seven held up well against USC’s talented backs. Stanford is the favorite in the Pac-12 until proven otherwise.

--- A couple Pac-12 teams lost against Big Ten foes: OREGON’s road trip to Lincoln ended after the Ducks couldn’t stop the Huskers from marching down the field for a late go-ahead drive and COLORADO – which was playing very well before QB Sefo Liufau’s injury – eventually succumbed to the Michigan defensive line. The Buffaloes’ punt team, which had one blocked for a TD, one returned for a TD, and kicked one for a seven-yard loss, might have had the worst special teams performance of the season.

--- Josh Rosen threw for over 300 yards at UCLA beat BYU 17-14; the two teams combined for just 73 yards rushing on 59 attempts (1.2 yards per carry). WASHINGTON, WASHINGTON STATE, and OREGON STATE feasted on their cupcakes. ARIZONA STATE went to San Antonio and had to come back to defeat UTSA, a relatively new FBS program. ARIZONA didn’t have much trouble with Hawai'i and UTAH didn’t have much trouble with San Jose State.

Comments

Rabbit21

September 20th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^

I'm in the good season for CU(if Liufau healthy) camp.  They gave a lot of teams scares last year and the PAC-12 South SUCKS this year.  They get both Oregon St. and Washington St.  and Oregon might be vulnerable.

Again this all depends on Liufau's health, but man, if you look at that schedule Eight wins seems pretty possible.

TrueBlue2003

September 21st, 2016 at 1:13 AM ^

max and 8 wins being pretty possible are about the same, right? Or are you saying 8 wins is pretty possible, as in the expectation, and nine or ten is a more reasonable max?

Not sure what the probability limit of a "max" is, but I'd be shocked if they were better than 6-3 in the PAC12, which would still certainly be a good season. They're very likely to lose @Oregon and @Stanford and it would be impressive to only lose one of @USC, UCLA, Utah, and @AZ.

And that's giving them wins over Or St, ASU and WSU.

flashOverride

September 20th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^

One thing that's annoyed me a bit this week...why isn't Iowa getting as much shit as Michigan did in 2007? OK, so Michigan was ranked a whole eight spots higher and NDSU is likely on their way to a FCS six-peat as opposed to a mere three-peat as was App State. Is that really that huge of a difference? I realize Michigan is traditionally a bit more visible but it felt like there wasn't much ado over this, almost like it wasn't even all that shocking. Just thought it was kind of weird.

markusr2007

September 20th, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^

in the nation.

Also, Iowa did not have 4 heisman trophy candidates and an outland trophy candidate on the roster.

QB Chad Henne - 5 star quarterback, senior, 4 year starter

TB Mike Hart

OT Jake Long

WR Mario Manningham

WR Adrian Arrington

Just about the only thing similar between 2016 Iowa and 2007 Michigan is the offensive coordinators: 

Mike Debord vs. Greg Davis. 

In a matchup, neither would win. We would all just lose.

 

lhglrkwg

September 20th, 2016 at 6:42 PM ^

saying he'd rather lose to the worst FBS team (like a Buffalo, EMU or North Texas) rather than the best FCS team (NDSU). In today's climate I find that to be nuts as I agree that most people now understand that the top 10 of the FCS probably land in maybe the #40-80 range in FBS with the best teams being fringe top 25. Iowa's loss was bad but it's NDSU and it's Iowa, I can't say I was surprised NDSU won

iceman88

September 20th, 2016 at 4:16 PM ^

I think the general concesus was that back in '07, Michigan was a legitimate contender for the BCS National Championship coming off a '06 season where they barely lost to Ohio State and lost to a great USC team.  The expectations were through the roof.  Iowa, didnt have the same expectations as Michigan in '06 and most people thought that they still might take a step back given Iowa's previous seasons.

Or, maybe people became more aware of how good top-tier FCS opponents can be after '07.  I do agree that it should be talked about a little more and I am sure Iowa fans are pretty upset considering Iowa just paid their head coach a lot of money for the next decade.

J.

September 20th, 2016 at 5:12 PM ^

Also, there are about 8 people that hate Iowa.  I mean, what's the point?  What's to hate?  Corn? Who hates corn?  I assume every Iowa State fan hates Iowa, so maybe that brings it up to 15.

Meanwhile, there are approximately 90 million people who hate Michigan, starting with our chief rivals in Piscataway, Champaign... the list goes on.  That gives the story approximalely 90 million times as much life.

TrueBlue2003

September 21st, 2016 at 1:23 AM ^

Iowa was only a two TD favorite.  That's not much in college football.  In other words, this wasn't much of a surprise and wasn't a huge upset.  Iowa was highly lucky last year, very few unbiased people that know things about college football bought them as a top 15 team this year, and they're probably not even a top 25 team.  NDSU is a very good FCS team, so the result was shrug worthy.

Also, all the other stuff people mentioned about lots of people hating Michigan and no one caring about Iowa.

M-Dog

September 20th, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^

The Buffaloes’ punt team, which had one blocked for a TD, one returned for a TD, and kicked one for a seven-yard loss, might have had the worst special teams performance of ANY season.

Fixed it.

 

lhglrkwg

September 20th, 2016 at 6:48 PM ^

Who wins the Pac12 south? A disastrous USC? Decent looking Colorado or UCLA? Questionable but not awful looking Utah or ASU? No clue. Probably UCLA?

Same in the BIg 12. The top of the league is a muddy mess. No defense TCU, Texas or TTU? An OU team clubbed by Houston and OSU? An Okie State that at best barely beat CMU? West Virginia?

No clue. Wouldn't surprise me if the Pac12 south and the Big 12 both had 2 conference loss champions 

iceman88

September 20th, 2016 at 4:22 PM ^

I really enjoy reading the current status of each conference and the best wins/losses. 

This year is probably the first in a while where there isnt one conference that really stands above the others.  It seems like each conference has their equal share of great teams and scrubs (except you B12).  I think it is really difficult for one conference to say that their conference is the top conference over conference x/y/z.  Big Ten East is probably the best Division in college football though.

dcmaizeandblue

September 20th, 2016 at 4:46 PM ^

We of all fanbases should remember not to over value a win over Notre Dame, especially one that already lost to Texas. MSU will have plenty of tough games coming up to convince me, but this one didn't move the needle much.

oriental andrew

September 20th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^

As I was searching the googles for Sefo Liufau's injury status, saw that LB Derek McCartney, grandson of Bill McCartney, is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the Michigan game. Hope they both get well soon.

CU is a solid team with Liufau out there, and them winning some more certainly helps UM.

autodrip4-1968

September 20th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^

I believe Michigan was the best compared to State. Their competition might have been more competitive than State, especially in the trenches. Colorado was the tougher competition. Notre Dame is a bad football team.